Merton-type default risk and financial performance: the dynamic panel moderation of firm size

2022 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Mushafiq ◽  
Syed Ahmad Sami ◽  
Muhammad Khalid Sohail ◽  
Muzammal Ilyas Sindhu

PurposeThe main purpose of this study is to evaluate the probability of default and examine the relationship between default risk and financial performance, with dynamic panel moderation of firm size.Design/methodology/approachThis study utilizes a total of 1,500 firm-year observations from 2013 to 2018 using dynamic panel data approach of generalized method of moments to test the relationship between default risk and financial performance with the moderation effect of the firm size.FindingsThis study establishes the findings that default risk significantly impacts the financial performance. The relationship between distance-to-default (DD) and financial performance is positive, which means the relationship of the independent and dependent variable is inverse. Moreover, this study finds that the firm size is a significant positive moderator between DD and financial performance.Practical implicationsThis study provides new and useful insight into the literature on the relationship between default risk and financial performance. The results of this study provide investors and businesses related to nonfinancial firms in the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) with significant default risk's impact on performance. This study finds, on average, the default probability in KSE ALL indexed companies is 6.12%.Originality/valueThe evidence of the default risk and financial performance on samples of nonfinancial firms has been minimal; mainly, it has been limited to the banking sector. Moreover, the existing studies have only catered the direct effect of only. This study fills that gap and evaluates this relationship in nonfinancial firms. This study also helps in the evaluation of Merton model's performance in the nonfinancial firms.

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Mushafiq ◽  
Muzammal Ilyas Sindhu ◽  
Muhammad Khalid Sohail

PurposeThe main purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between credit risk and financial performance in non-financial firms.Design/methodology/approachIn order to test the relationship between Altman Z-score model as a credit risk proxy and the Return on Asset and Equity as indicator for financial performance with control variables leverage, liquidity and firm size. Least Square Dummy Variable regression analysis is opted. This research's sample included 69 non-financial companies from the Pakistan Stock Exchange KSE-100 Index between 2012 and 2017.FindingsThis study establishes the findings that Altman Z-score, leverage and firm size significantly impact the financial performance of the KSE-100 non-financial firms. However, liquidity is found to be insignificant in this study. Altman Z-score and firm size have shown a positive relationship to the financial performance, whereas leverage is inversely related.Practical implicationsThis study brings in a new and useful insight into the literature on the relationship between credit risk and financial performance. The results of this study provide investors, businesses and managers related to non-financial firms in the KSE-100 index with significant insight about credit risk's impact on performance.Originality/valueThe evidence of the credit risk and financial performance on samples of non-financial firms has not been studied; mainly it has been limited to the banking sector. This study helps in the evaluation of Altman Z-score's performance in the non-financial firms in KSE-100 index as well.


Author(s):  
Maryam Fattahi

One of the available challenges in areas of health economics is identification of the effective factors on health expenditures. Air pollution plays important role in the public and private health expenditure but most studies have ignored the role of this category in explanation of health expenditures. On the other hand, the impact of air pollution on health expenditures is influenced by several factors. This study intends to investigate the effect of air pollution on public and private health expenditures and to identify the urbanization rate factor affecting the relationship between air pollution and public and private health expenditures. Scope of the present study is developing countries over period of 1995-2011. We used a dynamic panel and Generalized Method of Moments method. The empirical results indicate that air pollution has positive and significant effect on public and private health expenditures. Also, the results imply that urbanization rate affecting the relationship between air pollution and health expenditures that urbanization rate plays a reinforcing role.


2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 60 ◽  
Author(s):  
Woon Lin ◽  
Jo Ho ◽  
Murali Sambasivan

As corporate social responsibility (CSR) gains momentum in the business world, it is imperative to comprehend the relationship between CSR and corporate financial performance (CFP). While there is prior research looking at this relationship, scholars have proposed a contingency view that is meant to determine the situational contexts in which critical associations between CFP and CSR activities will arise. This study provides further insight into the moderating effects of corporate political activity, specifying the ways in which different arrangements of corporate CSR and CPA might align or otherwise, thus influencing CFP beyond associated dissimilar effects on corporate performance. The data for this study was obtained for the periods 2007–2016 from the samples selected from the list of Fortune’s World’s Most Admired Companies. The dynamic panel data was analyzed using the System Generalized Method of Moment estimation. The main findings are that CSR does not significantly influence CFP. However, CPA does negatively moderate the relationship between CSR and CFP. This indicates that high political expenditures worsen a firm’s financial position compared to the financial position of firms with less spending on CPA.


2020 ◽  
Vol 67 (2) ◽  
pp. 187-206
Author(s):  
Nedra Baklouti ◽  
Younes Boujelbene

This article examines the nexus between democracy and economic growth while taking into account the role of political stability, using dynamic panel data model estimated by means of the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) over the period 1998 to 2011 for 17 Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. Our empirical results showed that there is a bidirectional causal relationship between democracy and economic growth. Moreover, it was found that the effect of democracy on economic growth depends on the political stability. The results also indicated that there is important complementarity between political stability and democracy. In fact, political stability is a key determinant variable of economic growth. Eventually, democracy and political stability, taken together, have a positive and statistically significant effect on economic growth. This finding suggests that, if accompanied by a stable political system, democracy can contribute to the economic growth of countries. Thus, the MENA governments should use policies to promote political stability in the region.


2015 ◽  
Vol 32 (4) ◽  
pp. 503-524 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abubakr Saeed ◽  
Muhammad Sameer

Purpose – This paper aims to empirically investigate the impact of bank market concentration of financial constraints on firm investment. Design/methodology/approach – This analysis is based on cross-industries panel of 368 listed Pakistani non-financial firms over the period of 2001-2009. Further, the Generalized Method of Moments estimation technique has been used to estimate the dynamic panel data model. Findings – By applying a dynamic panel analysis, it was found that small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are financially constrained in the credit market. The main finding indicates that reduction in bank concentration eases financing constraints, and this effect is more pronounced for SMEs. In addition, while testing the firm opacity in this context, results reveal that opaque firms are more financially constrained, and bank market competition is less favourable to the firms with greater opacity. Originality/value – The results, first, assess the efficacy of ongoing financial reforms in Pakistan and, second, offer implications for other economies that exhibit financial development similar to that of Pakistan.


2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 244-269 ◽  
Author(s):  
Faten Ben Bouheni

Purpose – This paper aims to find the effects of regulatory and supervisory policies on bank risk-taking. The same regulation and supervision have different effects on bank risk-taking depending on influence factors. These factors were considered and a sample of the largest European banks from France, Germany, UK, Italy, Spain and Greece was used over the period 2005-2011. Design/methodology/approach – In this paper, the author analyses the effects of regulation and supervision on risk-taking. The author uses a sample of the biggest banks from six European countries (France, UK, Germany, Italy, Spain and Greece) over the period 2005-2011. Because the applicable entry of IFRS was in 2005, thus data of European banks are not available before this date. For each country in the sample, the 10 largest banks (defined by total assets) that lend money to firms were identified. The author does not include central banks or postal banks, which generally do not lend money to firms and are described as non-banking institutions (La Porta et al., 2002). Findings – It was found that restrictions on bank activities, supervisors’ power and capital adequacy decrease risk-taking. Thus, regulation and supervision enhance bank’s stability. While, deposit insurance increases the risk due to its association to moral hazard. Finally, it was found that strengthening regulatory and supervisory framework raises the risk-taking and weakens the stability of European banks. Originality/value – The author contributes to existing empirical analyses in three ways. First, the existing literature has drawn a lot of attention on US banks. However, the purpose of this paper is to examine the biggest banks of three European leaders (France, Germany and UK) and three more European countries influenced by the recent crisis (Spain, Italy and Greece) over the period 2005-2011. Second, most studies focus mainly on the relationship between regulation and profitability, yet seldom on the relationship between regulation, supervision and risk-taking. The author focuses on this relationship. Third, this study applies the two-step dynamic panel data approach suggested by Blundell and Bond (1998) and also uses dynamic panel generalized method of moments (GMM) method to address potential problems. The two-step GMM estimator that the author uses is generally the most efficient.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Njagi Kirimi ◽  
Samuel Nduati Kariuki ◽  
Kennedy Nyabuto Ocharo

PurposeThis study analyzed the moderating effect of bank size on the relationship between financial soundness and financial performance of commercial banks in Kenya.Design/methodology/approachThe study employed data from 39 commercial banks for ten years from 2009 to 2018. Panel data regression model was used to analyze data.FindingsThe study results established a negative moderating effect of bank size on the relationship between commercial banks' financial soundness and net interest margin (NIM) and return on assets (ROA) with the results indicating a correlation coefficient of −0.1699 and −0.218, respectively. However, an absence of moderating effect was established when return on equity (ROE) was used as a measure of financial performance.Practical implicationsThe paper finding recommends that banks' management and other policy makers should consider the effect of bank size while devising financial soundness policies to ensure optimal level of banks' financial soundness aimed at improving banks' financial performance. In addition, bankers associations should come up with policies to standardize asset quality management practices to ensure continuous positive performance of the banking sector.Originality/valueThe study shows the contribution and applicability of the theory of production in the banking sector.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ismail Ben Douissa ◽  
Tawfik Azrak

Purpose Causality between corporate financial performance (CFP) and corporate social performance (CSP) has been extensively debated in previous research works; however, little research has been done to investigate the long-run dynamics between these two constructs. The purpose of this paper is to enrich the CFP–CSP literature by estimating the long-run equilibrium relationship between financial performance and social performance in the banking sector in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries over the period 2009–2019. Design/methodology/approach The paper adopts an approach that is primarily used in financial economics: first, the authors perform panel long-run Granger causality following Canning and Pedroni’s procedure to indicate the direction of the causal relationship. Second, the authors estimate an error correction model using Chudik and Pesaran’s (2015) dynamic common correlated effects mean group estimator to determine the sign of the relationship. Findings The present research findings prove the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between CFP and CSP, while indicating at the same time that panel Granger causality runs positively from CSP to CFP, which means that changes in CSP produce lasting changes in CFP. Practical implications The findings of the paper would guide strategists to build fit for purpose corporate social responsibility (CSR) strategies in their firms and establish a continuous investment in CSR activities in the long run rather than harshly investing in CSR activities in the short run. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper is the first one to address heterogeneity in long-run Granger causality tests to estimate the relationship between CSP and CFP.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Reena Bhattu-Babajee ◽  
Boopen Seetanah

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to empirically assess the impact of value-added intellectual capital (VAIC) on the financial performance (FP) of companies in Mauritius.Design/methodology/approachThe research uses a dynamic panel vector error correction model (PVECM) which simultaneously allows for endogeneity and causality issues among the variables used.FindingsThe results show that VAIC enhances corporate FP, with a reported lower effect in the short run as compared to the long run. Other important determinants of firm’s performance are asset turnover, capital turnover and firm’s size. Leverage, on the other hand, is observed to be performance reducing in nature. FP of the companies is also a significant determinant of VAIC, implying reverse causal effects exist between the two variables of interest, namely, VAIC and FP.Research limitations/implicationsThe study can be enhanced by doing an industry-specific comparison of the impact of VAIC on FP for more insights.Practical implicationsIt is recommended that managers pay more attention to the role of firms’ stock of tangible and intangible assets, as this has a positive impact on firms’ FP. Also, the results may help to increase awareness of the importance of effective intellectual capital (IC) management within an organization. More so, as demonstrated by Ståhle et al. (2011), VAIC indicates the efficiency of the company’s labor and capital investments within firms in Mauritius. This study may, therefore, enable Mauritian firms to measure their IC efficiency and develop policies to promote and improve upon their intellectual potential to enhance firm’s performance.Originality/valueThe main theoretical contribution of this paper relates to the assessment and conceptualization of the bi-directional relationship between VAIC and FP. It confirmed that there are self-reinforcing feedback effects between VAIC and FP. Methodologically speaking, this paper investigates the VAIC–FP nexus in a dynamic setting using a dynamic panel data framework, namely, a PVECM which also allows for additional insights into the short- and long-run effects.


2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudio Oliveira De Moraes ◽  
José Americo Pereira Antunes ◽  
Márcio Silva Coutinho

PurposeThis paper analyzes the effect of the banking market (concentration and competition) on financial development.Design/methodology/approachIn order to estimate the effects of banking concentration and competition on financial development, we conducted an empirical analysis using the System Generalized Method of Moments (S-GMM) through a dynamic panel data model.FindingsThe main results suggest that concentration and competition affect financial development. In particular, an increase in bank concentration may inhibit the country's financial development, due to the lack of competition. Our results do not confirm the controversy between concentration and competition, suggesting that concerning financial development, concentration is the reverse of competition.Practical implicationsThe results of this study add a new perspective on banking market power: a financial system concentrated or uncompetitive constrains financial development.Originality/valueThe literature that combines the investigation of the effects of banking market structure (concentration) and banking market conduct (competition) on financial development is scarce. Although a concentrated banking sector can reduce competition through barriers to new entrants (which could expand financial services offer), it is also true that a concentrated banking sector can be competitive. In order to avoid the controversy, our paper chooses to look into a comprehensive approach considering independent measures of bank concentration and bank competition, which together refer to the banking framework.


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