Analysis of risk spillover effect of copper option in China

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Wuyi Ye ◽  
Yiqi Wang ◽  
Jinhai Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Value At Risk ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Spillover Effect ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Futures Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Conditional Autoregressive ◽  
Derivative Markets ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Risk Spillover Effects

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to compare the changes in the risk spillover effects between the copper spot and futures markets before and after the issuance of copper options, analyze the risk spillover effects between the three markets after the issuance of the options and can provide effective suggestions for regulators and investors who hedge risks. Design/methodology/approach The MV-CAViaR model is an extended form of the vector autoregressive model (VAR) to the quantile model, and it is also a special form of the MVMQ-CAViaR model. Based on the VAR quantile model, this model has undergone continuous promotion of the Conditional Autoregressive Value-at-Risk Model (CAViaR) and the Multi-quantile Conditional Autoregressive Value-at-Risk Model (MQ-CAViaR), and finally got the current form of the model. Findings The issuance of options has led to certain changes in the risk spillover effect between the copper spot and its derivative markets, and the risk aggregation effect in the futures market has always been significant. Therefore, when supervising the copper product market and investors using copper derivatives to avoid market risks, they need to pay attention to the impact of futures on the spot market, the impact of options on the futures market and the risk spillover effects of spot and futures on the options market. Practical implications The empirical results of this paper can be used to hedge market risk investment strategies, and the changes in market relationships also provide an effective basis for the supervision of the copper product market by the supervisory authority. Originality/value It is the first literature research to discuss the risk and the impact of spillover effects of copper options on China copper market and its derivative markets. The MV-CAViaR model can capture the mutual risk influence between markets by modeling multiple markets simultaneously.

Estimating umbrella-branding spillovers: a retailer perspective

2017 ◽  
Vol 51 (9/10) ◽  
pp. 1695-1712 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mouna Sebri ◽  
Georges Zaccour
Keyword(s):  
Market Share ◽  
Focal Point ◽  
Spillover Effect ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Brand Performance ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Umbrella Branding ◽  
Share Model ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The starting conjecture is that the market share of a brand in one category benefits from its performance in another category, and vice versa. The purpose of this paper is to assess the umbrella-branding spillovers by investigating the presence of synergy effect between categories when a retailer and/or a manufacturer decide to adopt/use the same name for his products. In fact, besides the cross-category dependency due to substitutability or complementarity, products can also be linked through their brand name in presence of an umbrella-branding strategy. Design/methodology/approach The authors propose an extended market-share model to account for the spillover effect at the brand level. The spillover is modeled to be generated by the brand's performance and not specific to marketing instruments, as done in the literature. They adopt a multiplicative competitive interaction (MCI) form for the attraction function. Based on aggregated data of two complementary oral-hygiene categories, the authors estimate the umbrella-branding spillover parameters using the iterate three-stage least squares (I3SLS) method. They contrast the results in three scenarios: no spillover, brand-constant spillover and brand-specific spillover. Findings The ensuing results indicate that umbrella-branding spillover is (i) significant and positive, i.e. the brand performance is boosted by its performance in a related category, through the so-called brand-attraction multiplier; (ii) asymmetric, i.e. the spillover is not equal in both directions; and associated to the market strength of each competing brand; (iii) variable across brands. The results show that not accounting for umbrella-branding spillover leads to misestimating the parameters and has a considerable impact on price-elasticities computation. Research limitations/implications Because store brands and some national brands exist in many categories, and thus because consumers make inferences when they face a large number of brands in different categories, spillover effects cannot be labelled as simply complementary or substitution-related. Future research may provide insight about the spillover phenomenon in a more general framework that would consider the spillover occurring between more than two categories. Practical implications Providing accurate assessment for umbrella-branding spillovers governing the competing brands, the results offer a relevant and straightforward method for decision makers to precisely assess the impact of a marketing effort in one category on the retailer's global performance. The findings provide better forecasts of market response in terms of sales and profit, within a cross-category perspective. Originality/value This study develops and estimates a market-share model with the aim of measuring brand-category spillover effects. The literature dealt with cross-category interactions in terms of substitutability or complementarity between the products offered in the two or more categories under investigation. Here, the focal point (and contribution) of the authors is the link at the brand level. Indeed, the authors only require that a minimum of one brand is offered in at least two of the categories of interest. Further, the spillover considered is not specific to marketing instruments, but is generated by the brand performance (attraction or market share), which is the result of both the firms marketing-mix choice and competitors marketing policies.

Valuation of initial margin using bootstrap method

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 543-557
Author(s):  
Modisane Bennett Seitshiro ◽  
Hopolang Phillip Mashele
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Risk Measure ◽  
Bootstrap Method ◽  
Parametric Bootstrap ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Significance Level

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to propose the parametric bootstrap method for valuation of over-the-counter derivative (OTCD) initial margin (IM) in the financial market with low outstanding notional amounts. That is, an aggregate outstanding gross notional amount of OTC derivative instruments not exceeding R20bn. Design/methodology/approach The OTCD market is assumed to have a Gaussian probability distribution with the mean and standard deviation parameters. The bootstrap value at risk model is applied as a risk measure that generates bootstrap initial margins (BIM). Findings The proposed parametric bootstrap method is in favour of the BIM amounts for the simulated and real data sets. These BIM amounts are reasonably exceeding the IM amounts whenever the significance level increases. Research limitations/implications This paper only assumed that the OTCD returns only come from a normal probability distribution. Practical implications The OTCD IM requirement in respect to transactions done by counterparties may affect the entire financial market participants under uncleared OTCD, while reducing systemic risk. Thus, reducing spillover effects by ensuring that collateral (IM) is available to offset losses caused by the default of a OTCDs counterparty. Originality/value This paper contributes to the literature by presenting a valuation of IM for the financial market with low outstanding notional amounts by using the parametric bootstrap method.

Ecological well-being performance and influencing factors in China: from the perspective of income inequality

Kybernetes ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lijun Zhou ◽  
Zongqing Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Income Inequality ◽  
Influencing Factors ◽  
Spillover Effect ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Spatial Spillover ◽  
Effective Decision ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Spatial Spillover Effect

PurposeChina's increasing income inequality might cause a series of problems, such as the slowdown of economic growth, social and economic tension, the decline of the ecological environment quality and the threat to citizens' health. Consequently, income inequality will inevitably affect the ecological well-being performance (EWP) level of China's provinces through the above aspects. Analyzing the impact of income inequality on EWP and its spatial spillover effects are conducive to improving the level of EWP in China. Therefore, the research purpose of this paper is to use China's provincial data from 2001 to 2017 to analyze the impact of income inequality on EWP and the spatial spillover effect based on the evaluation of the EWP value of each province.Design/methodology/approachAt first, this study utilizes the super efficiency slacks-based measure model (Super-SBM model) to calculate the EWP values of 30 provinces in China, which can evaluate and rank the effective decision units in the SBM model and make up for the defect that the effective decision units cannot be distinguished. Then this study applies the spatial Durbin model and Tobit regression model (SDM-Tobit model) to explore the impact of income inequality and other influencing factors on EWP and the spatial spillover effects in adjacent areas.FindingsFirstly, the average EWP in China fluctuated slightly and showed a downward trend from 2001 to 2017. In addition, the EWP values of the provinces in the western region are usually weaker than those in the eastern and central regions. Moreover, income inequality is negatively correlated with EWP, and the EWP has a spatial spillover effect, which means the EWP level in a region is affected by EWP values in the adjacent regions. Furthermore, the industrial structure and urbanization level are both negatively related to EWP, while technology level, investment openness, trade openness and education level are positively related to EWP.Originality/valueCompared with the existing research, the possible contribution of this research is that it takes income inequality as one of the important influencing factors of EWP and adopts the SDM-Tobit model to analyze the impact mechanism of income inequality on EWP from the perspective of time and space, providing new ideas for improving the EWP of various provinces in China.

scholarly journals Dependence and Risk Spillover among Hedging Assets: Evidence from Bitcoin, Gold, and USD

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
Jiang Yu ◽  
Yue Shang ◽  
Xiafei Li
Keyword(s):  
Value At Risk ◽  
Spillover Effect ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Conditional Value At Risk ◽  
Variational Model ◽  
Model Decomposition ◽  
Regulatory Decision ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Risk Spillover Effects

Understanding the dependence and risk spillover among hedging assets is crucial for portfolio allocation and regulatory decision making. Using various copula and conditional Value-at-Risk (CoVaR) measures, this paper quantifies the dependence and risk spillover effects between three traditional and emerging hedging assets: Bitcoin, gold, and USD. Furthermore, we investigate these effects at various short- and long-term horizons using a variational model decomposition (VMD) method. The empirical results show that there is strong negative dependence between gold and USD, but Bitcoin and gold are weakly and positively connected. Secondly, risk spillovers exist only between Bitcoin and gold and between gold and USD. The risk spillover effect between Bitcoin and gold are not stable, that is, if Bitcoin or gold faces the downward or upward risk, both the downward and upward risk of another asset have the chance to increase. The negative risk spillover between gold and USD is stable, especially in long-term horizons. Finally, the risk spillover between Bitcoin and gold as well as between gold and USD are asymmetric at downward and upward market environment.

Effects of government supports and credits on Turkish agriculture

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 391-401 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmet Ali Koç ◽  
T. Edward Yu ◽  
Taylan Kıymaz ◽  
Bijay Prasad Sharma
Keyword(s):  
Spillover Effect ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Agricultural Output ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Spatial Spillover ◽  
Percent Increase ◽  
Spatial Spillover Effects ◽  
The Impact

Purpose Domestic supports on Turkish agriculture have substantially increased over the past decade while empirical evaluation of their output impact is limited. Also, the existing literature often neglects potential spatial spillover effects of agricultural policies or subsidies. The purpose of this paper is to quantify the direct and spillover effects of Turkish agricultural domestic measures and agricultural credits use on the added agricultural value. Design/methodology/approach This study applied a spatial panel model incorporating spatial interactions among the dependent and explanatory variables to evaluate the impact of government support and credit on Turkish agricultural output. A provincial data set of agricultural output values, input factors and government subsidies from 2004 to 2014 was used to model the spatial spillover effects of government supports. Findings Results show that a one percent increase in agricultural credits in a given province leads to an average increase of 0.17 percent overall in agricultural value-added per hectare, including 0.05 percent from the direct effect and 0.12 percent from the spillover effect. Contrary to agricultural credits, a one percent increase in government supports in a province generates a mixed direct and spillover effects, resulting in an overall reduction of 0.13 percent in agricultural value-added per hectare in Turkey. Research limitations/implications This study could be extended by controlling for climate, biodiversity and investment factors to agricultural output in addition to input and policy factors if such data were available. Originality/value This study fills the gap in the literature by determining the total effect, including direct and spatial spillover effect, of domestic supports and credits on Turkish agricultural value. The findings provide crucial information to decision makers regarding the importance of incorporating spatial spillover effects in the design of agricultural policy.

Impact of correspondent bank de-risking on money service businesses in Jamaica

2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 479-493
Author(s):  
Leo-Rey Gordon
Keyword(s):  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Spillover Effect ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Unintended Consequences ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Financing Of Terrorism ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Quantitative Assessments

Purpose The paper aims to provide needed quantitative assessments of the impact of the withdrawal of correspondent banking to small emerging economies. It serves to identify the extent to which global anti-money laundering and combatting the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) standards have influenced global banks’ decision to withdraw correspondent banking from some jurisdictions and the subsequent economic spillover effects on other non-bank financial entities. Design/methodology/approach Separate semi-structured surveys are issued to banks and money services businesses in Jamaica. Analysis of the responses identify the initial impact of de-risking on banks and the subsequent spillover effect on the other aspects of the financial system. Findings Results show significant spillover effects on money services businesses in their ability to transact in foreign currency with local commercial banks. Further, the scale of this impact is greater and costlier for smaller entities. Research limitations/implications The economic consequences of the direct and indirect impact of correspondent bank de-risking are increased concentration risks and the potential expansion of shadow financial activity. Practical implications Tighter AML/CFT standards coupled with action of over-compliance has created unintended consequences for small developing countries across the globe. In Jamaica, commercial banks have either lost correspondent relationships or have had restrictions placed on the types of services available. It creates risks to economic growth and development through the hindrance of access to international financial markets for payments, trade and commerce. Originality/value This study is the first among research on the issue of correspondent bank de-risking to provide quantitative assessments of the impact on local financial systems.

Volatility integration of gold and crude oil prices with the interest rates in India

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shailesh Rastogi ◽  
Adesh Doifode ◽  
Jagjeevan Kanoujiya ◽  
Satyendra Pratap Singh
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Spillover Effect ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Volatility Spillover ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
The Impact

PurposeCrude oil, gold and interest rates are some of the key indicators of the health of domestic as well as global economy. The purpose of the study is to find the shock volatility and price volatility effects of gold and crude oil market on interest rates in India.Design/methodology/approachThis study finds the mutual and directional association of the volatility of gold, crude oil and interest rates in India. The bi-variate GARCH models (Diagonal VEC GARCH and BEKK GARCH) are applied on the sample data of gold price, crude oil price and yield (interest rate) gathered from November 30, 2015 to November 16, 2020 (weekly basis) to investigate the volatility association including the volatility spillover effect in the three markets.FindingsThe main findings of the study focus on having a long-term conditional correlation between gold and interest rates, but there is no evidence of volatility spillover from gold and crude oil on the interest rates. The findings of the study are of great importance especially to the policymakers, as they state that the fluctuations in prices of gold and crude oil do not adversely impact the interest rates in India. Therefore, the fluctuations in prices of gold and crude may generally impact the economy, but it has nothing to do with interest rate in particular. This implies that domestic and foreign investments in the country will not be affected by gold and crude oil that are largely driven by interest rates in the country.Practical implicationsGold and crude oil are two very important commodities that have their importance not only for domestic affairs but also for international business. They veritably influence the economy including forex exchange for any nation. In addition to this, the researchers believe the findings will provide insights to policymakers, stakeholders and investors.Originality/valueGold and crude oil undoubtedly influence the exchange rates but their impact on the interest rates in an economy is not definite and remains ambiguous owing to the mixed findings of the studies. The lack of studies related to the impact of gold and crude oil on the interest rates, despite them being essentials for the health of any economy is the main motivation of this study. This study is novel as it investigates the volatility impact of crude oil and gold on interest rates and contributes to the existing literature with its findings.

Engagement valence duality and spillover effects in online brand communities

2017 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 877-897 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jana Lay-Hwa Bowden ◽  
Jodie Conduit ◽  
Linda D. Hollebeek ◽  
Vilma Luoma-aho ◽  
Birgit Apenes Solem
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Method ◽  
Spillover Effect ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Consumer Engagement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Brand Communities ◽  
Brand Engagement ◽  
Online Brand Communities ◽  
Constant Comparative Method ◽  
Depth Interviews

Purpose Online brand communities (OBCs) are an effective avenue for brands to engage consumers. While engaging with the brand, consumers simultaneously interact with other OBC members; thus engaging with multiple, interrelated engagement objects concurrently. The purpose of this paper is to explore both positively and negatively valenced consumer engagement with multiple engagement objects, the interplay between these, and the spillover effect from consumers’ engagement with the OBC to their engagement with the brand. Design/methodology/approach Drawing on 16 in-depth interviews with OBC members of a luxury accessory brand, a constant comparative method was adopted using axial and selective coding procedures. The objective was to understand the nature of participants’ engagement with the brand, the OBC, and the interplay between individuals’ engagement with these objects. The coding framework and resultant interpretive frameworks address engagement valence, outcomes, and direction. Findings This study illustrates consumer expressions of consumers’ positively and negatively valenced engagement with a focal brand, and with the OBC. Further, it demonstrates the interplay (spillover effect) that occurs between consumers’ engagement with the OBC, to their engagement with the brand. While the existence of positively valenced engagement with the OBC was found to further enhance consumer brand engagement (i.e. reflecting an engagement accumulation effect), negatively valenced engagement with the OBC was found to reduce consumer brand engagement (i.e. reflecting an engagement detraction effect). Originality/value While consumer engagement has been recognized to have both positive and negative manifestations, this study demonstrates that consumers’ engagement valence may differ across interrelated engagement objects (i.e. the brand and the OBC). Further, we demonstrate the existence of engagement spillover effects from the OBC to the brand for both positively and negatively valenced engagement.

Supplier development under cooperative and non-cooperative investment structures

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abhishek Srivastava ◽  
Parimal Kumar ◽  
Arqum Mateen
Keyword(s):  
Investment Decision ◽  
Spillover Effect ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
The Other ◽  
Supplier Development ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cooperative Development ◽  
Investment Structure ◽  
Cooperative Investment ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis study analyzes supplier development investment decisions under a triadic setting (two buyers and a common supplier). In a triadic setting, the supplier development investment decision of one buyer can have a spillover effect of the benefits on other buyer. Therefore, it is utmost important for the investing buyer to understand the impact of benefit spillover on other competing buyers'. Therefore, one of the purposes of this study to analyze the supplier development investment decision of buyers under two scenarios. First, under cooperative development structure where both buyers jointly invest in supplier and share equal benefits. Second, non-cooperative investment structure where both buyers individually invest in supplier development and share unequal benefits.Design/methodology/approachIn order to assess the impact of supplier development investment decisions on the profitability of buyers and the common supplier, the authors used game-theoretic approach. The authors design a Stackelberg leader-follower game where the supplier acts as Stackelberg leader and buyers follow the supplier's pricing decision to maximize their profit level. Additionally, both buyers decide either to cooperate or non-cooperate while investing in supplier development.FindingsThe results show that the cooperative investment is always an optimal strategy for buyers and supplier. Interestingly, the efficient buyer's share of investment level is lower under non-cooperative investment structure and he is better-off due to its capability of taking advantage from the other buyer's investment. However, the inefficient buyer, on the other hand, is worse-off under non-cooperative investment. Furthermore, comparative analysis between the two shows that initially, the buyer who extracts more profit because of the other buyers' development investment tends to prefer the non-cooperative development investment set up. However, after a certain point, the same buyer is better-off under cooperative development investment through cooperation, and sharing equal benefit of the supplier's development, as the supplier in turn, starts charging a higher wholesale price under non-cooperative investment case.Originality/valueTo the best of authors’ knowledge, extant literature on supplier development has mostly focused on. One supplier-one buyer; thus, the learning spillover effect has almost been unexplored. In real-life, different buyers often purchase from the shared supplier. Therefore, it is important to analyze the spillover of supplier development benefits due to investment of one buyer on other buyer and deriving the condition under which buyers would be incentivized to invest jointly or individually.

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