The value of probabilistic forecasting in emergency medical resource planning under uncertainty

Kybernetes ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhen-Yu Chen

PurposeMost epidemic transmission forecasting methods can only provide deterministic outputs. This study aims to show that probabilistic forecasting, in contrast, is suitable for stochastic demand modeling and emergency medical resource planning under uncertainty.Design/methodology/approachTwo probabilistic forecasting methods, i.e. quantile regression convolutional neural network and kernel density estimation, are combined to provide the conditional quantiles and conditional densities of infected populations. The value of probabilistic forecasting in improving decision performances and controlling decision risks is investigated by an empirical study on the emergency medical resource planning for the COVID-19 pandemic.FindingsThe managerial implications obtained from the empirical results include (1) the optimization models using the conditional quantile or the point forecasting result obtain better results than those using the conditional density; (2) for sufficient resources, decision-makers' risk preferences can be incorporated to make tradeoffs between the possible surpluses and shortages of resources in the emergency medical resource planning at different quantile levels; and (3) for scarce resources, the differences in emergency medical resource planning at different quantile levels greatly decrease or disappear because of the existing of forecasting errors and supply quantity constraints.Originality/valueVery few studies concern probabilistic epidemic transmission forecasting methods, and this is the first attempt to incorporate deep learning methods into a two-phase framework for data-driven emergency medical resource planning under uncertainty. Moreover, the findings from the empirical results are valuable to select a suitable forecasting method and design an efficient emergency medical resource plan.

2016 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 101-114 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eman Gadalla ◽  
Ibrahim Abosag ◽  
Kathy Keeling

Purpose – This study aims to examine the nature and the potential use of avatar-based focus groups (AFGs) (i.e. focus groups conducted in three-dimensional [3D] virtual worlds [VWs]) as compared to face-to-face and online focus groups (OFGs), motivated by the ability of VWs to stimulate the realism of physical places. Over the past decade, there has been a rapid increase in using 3D VWs as a research tool. Design/methodology/approach – Using a two-phase reflective approach, data were collected first by using traditional face-to-face focus groups, followed by AFGs. In Phase 2, an online, semi-structured survey provided comparison data and experiences in AFGs, two-dimensional OFGs and traditional face-to-face focus groups. Findings – The findings identify the advantages and disadvantages of AFGs for marketing research. There is no evident difference in data quality between the results of AFGs and face-to-face focus groups. AFG compensates for some of the serious limitations associated with OFGs. Practical implications – The paper reflects on three issues, data quality, conduct of AFGs (including the moderator reflection) and participant experience, that together inform one’s understanding of the characteristics, advantages and limitations of AFG. Originality/value – This is the first paper to compare between AFGs, traditional face-to-face focus groups and OFGs. AFG holds many advantages over OFGs and even, sometimes, over face-to-face focus groups, providing a suitable environment for researchers to collect data.


2017 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 2-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Greasley ◽  
Yucan Wang

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore the use of a hybrid enterprise resource planning (ERP) system, combining an ERP system with enterprise social software (ESS). The study will provide a critical assessment of the implementation of this process technology. Design/methodology/approach Multiple case studies of organisations based in China were conducted to understand the use of ERP systems in different contexts. Following an evaluation of the context of each ERP implementation (within-case analysis) the research draws a cross-case conclusion that defines the nature of a hybrid ERP system and then synthesises the propositions related to the benefits and challenges of implementation. Findings The authors find that a hybrid ERP system is able to support efficiency in business process management and also provide a flexible response to changes in business requirements. It does this by allowing for the continued use of informal processes that cannot be incorporated into the ERP system. Practical implications This research indicates how ERP systems in conjunction with ESS can provide a flexible response to changing business requirements and increase collaboration within the organisation. Key lessons include the need to perform informal activities under the guidance of managers and provide clear boundaries for the implementation of informal activities. Originality/value This study has found that the use of case studies can provide a valuable insight into the use of a hybrid ERP system from the perspective of its use within the organisation as a work system that requires an assessment of the context within which organisational members perform their work.


2015 ◽  
Vol 38 (12) ◽  
pp. 1267-1284 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chian-Son Yu ◽  
Mehdi Asgarkhani

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to understand the connection among trust’s antecedents, dimensions and consequences in the context of e-banking. Design/methodology/approach – A survey of 510 and 122 respondents in Taiwan and New Zealand (NZ), respectively, was conducted. Findings – The empirical results indicate that, first, not all trusts’ precursors the authors considered have significant influence on generating consumers’ trust and, second, that influential weights of these precursors on building consumer trust vary across consumers and cultures. Meanwhile, all factors on the e-banking side hold greatly significant influence on consumers’ trust in both NZ and Taiwan cases. Research limitations/implications – Practical and academic implications culled from the empirical results are discussed, and these implications may also be applicable to other information and communication technology (ICT) solutions and innovation banking services. Practical implications – Before banks shift their focus on to trust resources of consumer side, banks are advised to create clients’ trust from e-banking side, such as situational normality and structural assurance. Originality/value – This paper takes a holistic view to investigate the links between trust’s dimensions, antecedents and consequences in a single research structure, and the implications may also be applicable to other ICT solutions and innovative banking services.


Author(s):  
Qiao Luo ◽  
Xiaobing Zhang

Purpose – In engineering applications, gas-solid two-phase reaction flow with multi-moving boundaries is a common phenomenon. The launch process of multiple projectiles is a typical example. The flow of adjacent powder chambers is coupled by projectile’s motion. The purpose of this paper is to study this flow by numerical simulation. Design/methodology/approach – A one-dimensional two-phase reaction flow model and MacCormack difference scheme are implemented in a computational code, and the code is used to simulate the launch process of a system of multiple projectiles. For different launching rates and loading conditions, the simulated results of the launch process of three projectiles are obtained and discussed. Findings – At low launching rates, projectiles fired earlier in the series have little effect on the launch processes of projectiles fired later. However, at higher launching rates, the projectiles fired first have a great influence on the launch processes of projectiles fired later. As the launching rate increases, the maximum breech pressure for the later projectiles increases. Although the muzzle velocities increase initially, they reach a maximum at some launching rate, and then decrease rapidly. The muzzle velocities and maximum breech pressures of the three projectiles have an approximate linear relationship with the charge weight, propellant web size and chamber volume. Originality/value – This paper presents a prediction tool to understand the physical phenomenon of the gas-solid two-phase reaction flow with multi-moving boundaries, and can be used as a research tool for future interior ballistics studies of launch system of multiple projectiles.


2017 ◽  
Vol 34 (3) ◽  
pp. 709-724 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amirmahdi Ghasemi ◽  
R. Nikbakhti ◽  
Amirreza Ghasemi ◽  
Faraz Hedayati ◽  
Amir Malvandi

Purpose A numerical method is developed to capture the interaction of solid object with two-phase flow with high density ratios. The current computational tool would be the first step of accurate modeling of wave energy converters in which the immense energy of the ocean can be extracted at low cost. Design/methodology/approach The full two-dimensional Navier–Stokes equations are discretized on a regular structured grid, and the two-step projection method along with multi-processing (OpenMP) is used to efficiently solve the flow equations. The level set and the immersed boundary methods are used to capture the free surface of a fluid and a solid object, respectively. The full two-dimensional Navier–Stokes equations are solved on a regular structured grid to resolve the flow field. Level set and immersed boundary methods are used to capture the free surface of liquid and solid object, respectively. A proper contact angle between the solid object and the fluid is used to enhance the accuracy of the advection of the mass and momentum of the fluids in three-phase cells. Findings The computational tool is verified based on numerical and experimental data with two scenarios: a cylinder falling into a rectangular domain due to gravity and a dam breaking in the presence of a fixed obstacle. In the former validation simulation, the accuracy of the immersed boundary method is verified. However, the accuracy of the level set method while the computational tool can model the high-density ratio is confirmed in the dam-breaking simulation. The results obtained from the current method are in good agreement with experimental data and other numerical studies. Practical/implications The computational tool is capable of being parallelized to reduce the computational cost; therefore, an OpenMP is used to solve the flow equations. Its application is seen in the following: wind energy conversion, interaction of solid object such as wind turbine with water waves, etc. Originality/value A high efficient CFD approach method is introduced to capture the interaction of solid object with a two-phase flow where they have high-density ratio. The current method has the ability to efficiently be parallelized.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chang Chen ◽  
Zhe Zhang ◽  
Ming Jia

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to examine the effect of stretch goals on unethical behavior and explore the mediating role of ambivalent identification and moderating role of competitive psychological climate.Design/methodology/approachA total of 350 MBA students from Northwestern China completed the two-phase survey. The bootstrapping analysis outlined by Hayes was used to assess a moderated mediation model.FindingsThis study found that stretch goals could trigger employees' unethical behavior via ambivalent identification. Competitive psychological climate intensified the relationship between stretch goals and ambivalent identification. Moreover, such a climate aggravated the indirect effect of stretch goals on unethical behavior via ambivalent identification.Practical implicationsOrganizations and managers should use stretch goals prudently and implement measures to reduce the ethical cost.Originality/valueThis study provides unique contributions by identifying ambivalent identification as an important mediator and competitive psychological climate as a boundary condition of stretch goals' disruptive effect on unethical behavior.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Felix Blank

PurposeRefugee camps can be severely struck by pandemics, like potential COVID-19 outbreaks, due to high population densities and often only base-level medical infrastructure. Fast responding medical systems can help to avoid spikes in infections and death rates as they allow the prompt isolation and treatment of patients. At the same time, the normal demand for emergency medical services has to be dealt with as well. The overall goal of this study is the design of an emergency service system that is appropriate for both types of demand.Design/methodology/approachA spatial hypercube queuing model (HQM) is developed that uses queuing-theory methods to determine locations for emergency medical vehicles (also called servers). Therefore, a general optimization approach is applied, and subsequently, virus outbreaks at various locations of the study areas are simulated to analyze and evaluate the solution proposed. The derived performance metrics offer insights into the behavior of the proposed emergency service system during pandemic outbreaks. The Za'atari refugee camp in Jordan is used as a case study.FindingsThe derived locations of the emergency medical system (EMS) can handle all non-virus-related emergency demands. If additional demand due to virus outbreaks is considered, the system becomes largely congested. The HQM shows that the actual congestion is highly dependent on the overall amount of outbreaks and the corresponding case numbers per outbreak. Multiple outbreaks are much harder to handle even if their cumulative average case number is lower than for one singular outbreak. Additional servers can mitigate the described effects and lead to enhanced resilience in the case of virus outbreaks and better values in all considered performance metrics.Research limitations/implicationsSome parameters that were assumed for simplification purposes as well as the overall model should be verified in future studies with the relevant designers of EMSs in refugee camps. Moreover, from a practitioners perspective, the application of the model requires, at least some, training and knowledge in the overall field of optimization and queuing theory.Practical implicationsThe model can be applied to different data sets, e.g. refugee camps or temporary shelters. The optimization model, as well as the subsequent simulation, can be used collectively or independently. It can support decision-makers in the general location decision as well as for the simulation of stress-tests, like virus outbreaks in the camp area.Originality/valueThe study addresses the research gap in an optimization-based design of emergency service systems for refugee camps. The queuing theory-based approach allows the calculation of precise (expected) performance metrics for both the optimization process and the subsequent analysis of the system. Applied to pandemic outbreaks, it allows for the simulation of the behavior of the system during stress-tests and adds a further tool for designing resilient emergency service systems.


Kybernetes ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaojun Yao ◽  
Masoumeh Azma

PurposeThis study aims to investigate the impact of skills and knowledge of employees, economic situations of the company, current IT infrastructure, payment fashion, cloud availability, and cloud privacy and security on the productivity of the human resources in the COVID-19 era.Design/methodology/approachOver the past few years, the advent of cloud-assisted technologies has dramatically advanced the Information Technology (IT)-based industries by providing everything as a service. Cloud computing is recognized as a growing technology among companies around the world. One of the most critical cloud applications is deploying systems and organizational resources, especially systems whose deployment costs are high. Manpower is one of the basic and vital resources of the organization, and organizations need an efficient workforce to achieve their goals. But, in the COVID-19 era, human resources' productivity can be reduced due to stress, high labor force, reduced organizational performance and profits, unfavorable organizational conditions, inability to manage and lack of training. Therefore, this study tries to investigate the productivity of human resources in the COVID-19 era. Data were collected from the medium-sized companies through a questionnaire. Distributed questionnaires were conducted on the Likert scale. The model is assessed using the structural equation modeling technique to examine its reliability and validity. The study is a library method and literature review. A case study was conducted through a questionnaire and statistical analysis by SPSS 25 and SMART-PLS.FindingsBased on the findings, the skills and knowledge of employees, the economic situations of the company, payment fashion, cloud availability and the current IT infrastructures of the company have a positive impact on human resource efficiency in the COVID-19 era. But cloud privacy and security have a negative effect on the productivity of human resources. The findings can be the basis for companies and organizations in the COVID-19 era.Research limitations/implicationsThis study has some restrictions that need to be considered in evaluating the obtained results. First, due to the prevalence of Coronavirus, access to information from the companies under study was limited. Second, this research may have overlooked other variables that affect human resource productivity in the COVID-19 era. Prospective researchers can examine the impact of Customer Relationship Management (CRM) and Supply Chain Management (SCM) on the human resource's productivity in the COVID-19 era.Practical implicationsThe results of this research are applicable for all companies, their departments and human resources in the COVID-19 era.Originality/valueIn this paper, human resources' productivity in the COVID-19 era is pointed out. The presented new model provides a complete framework for investigating cloud-based enterprise resource planning systems affect the productivity of human resources in the COVID-19 era.


2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 257-267 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastian Martin

Purpose German, Austrian and Swiss utilities are confronted with radical changes in the European energy sector. A dialogue between the utility companies and their various groups of stakeholders is gaining importance. Increasingly, utilities create their own Facebook presence enabling such a dialogue. Still, to the best of the author’s knowledge there exists no research which explicitly focuses the stakeholder dialogue of German, Austrian or Swiss utilities on Facebook. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to analyse Facebook as an instrument for dialogic communication in the energy sector. Design/methodology/approach An online survey was distributed to 1,280 German, Austrian and Swiss utilities, and 14 per cent of the utilities completed the survey, including 130 German, 19 Austrian and 25 Swiss companies. The participating utilities are primarily in public ownership. Findings The Facebook conversation of utility companies and their stakeholders meets the basic requirements of a virtual stakeholder dialogue. Nevertheless, less than half of the companies perceive their current stakeholder conversation on Facebook as truly interactive. Therefore, even if the basic requirements of a dialogue are met, most companies still do not seem to fully use the dialogue potential of Facebook. Originality/value This study provides first insights into virtual stakeholder dialogues in the energy sector. A suggestion to operationalise such a virtual dialogue is provided. Both operationalisation as well as the empirical results help researchers and practitioners to better understand virtual stakeholder dialogues.


2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 22-43 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jia Liu ◽  
Frida Thomas Pacho ◽  
Wang Xuhui

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to empirically explore the impact of culture (using individualism, power distance and uncertainty avoidance) on entrepreneurial risk taking behavior which leads to the opportunity exploitation decision. Moreover, it also uses risk taking behavior of entrepreneurial as the mediation variable between culture and opportunity exploitations decisions. Design/methodology/approach The study took place in Tanzania, which is allocated in East Africa and is one of under researched countries. In total, 140 entrepreneurs who own venture of 5-99 employees were able to be interviewed using a survey questionnaire. In this study, structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to examine the direct and indirect relationship of culture in entrepreneurial opportunity exploitation decisions. Findings After hypothesis testing, the empirical results showed that Tanzania’s culture has an impact on entrepreneurial risk taking behavior, which influences entrepreneurial opportunity exploitation decision. It also showed culture through individualism and uncertainty avoidance measurements affect entrepreneurial opportunity exploitation decisions. The empirical results on power distance were insignificant. Research limitations/implications This study is a wake-up call to policy makers and formal institutions such as government authorities, education institutions and religion institutions. Thus, culture has an ability to influence the behavior of entrepreneurs and so the performance of ventures if it is consistent and well structured. Therefore it should be not taken for granted. Data for our study are based on only two cities and therefore the results should not be generalized as the whole country’s inference. Generalizability is questioned because the data are from only two cities in Tanzania and therefore future research should include more cities to be able to validate the generalizability. Practical implications This study is a wake-up call to policymakers and formal institutions such as government authorities, education institutions and religion institutions. Thus culture has an ability to influence the behavior of entrepreneurs and so the performance of ventures if it is consistent and well structured. Therefore it should be not taken for granted. Data for our study are based on only two cities and therefore the results should not be generalized as the whole country’s inference. Social implications In the country which has well-structured culture, influence the behavior of entrepreneurs to exploit opportunities. Originality/value This is the first empirical study to use SEM for exploring the culture of individualism, power distance and uncertainty avoidance impact on entrepreneurial opportunity exploitation in Tanzania.


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