Low-risk investment strategy: sector bets or stock bets?

2022 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shilpa Peswani ◽  
Mayank Joshipura
Keyword(s):  
Asset Pricing ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Investment Strategies ◽  
Stock Level ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Risk Effect ◽  
Value Effect ◽  
Risk Investment

PurposeThe portfolio of low-risk stocks outperforms the portfolio of high-risk stocks and market portfolios on a risk-adjusted basis. This phenomenon is called the low-risk effect. There are several economic and behavioral explanations for the existence and persistence of such an effect. However, it is still unclear whether specific sector orientation drives the low-risk effect. The study seeks to answer the following important questions in Indian equity markets: (a) Whether sector bets or stock bets mainly drive the low-risk effect? (b) Is it a mere proxy for the well-known value effect? (c) Does the low-risk effect prevail in long-only portfolios?Design/methodology/approachThe study is based on all the listed stocks on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India from December 1994 to September 2018. It classifies them into 11 Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) sectors to construct stock-level and sector-level BAB (Betting Against Beta) and long-only low-risk portfolios. It follows the study of Asness et al. (2014) to construct various BAB portfolios. It applies Fama–French (FF) three-factor and Fama–French–Carhart (FFC) four-factor asset pricing models in addition to Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) to examine the strength of BAB, sector-level BAB, stock-level BAB and long-only low-beta portfolios.FindingsBoth sector- and stock-level bets contribute to the return of the low-risk investing strategy, but the stock-level effect is dominant. Only betting on safe sectors or industries will not earn economically significant alpha. The low-risk effect is unique and not a value effect in disguise. Both long-short and long-only portfolios within sectors and industry groups deliver positive excess returns. Consumer staples, financial, materials and healthcare sectors mainly contribute to the returns of the low-risk effect in India. This study offers empirical evidence against the Samuelson (1998) micro-efficient market given the strong performance of the stock-level low-risk effect.Practical implicationsThe superior performance of the low-risk investment strategies at both stock and sector levels offers investors an opportunity to strategically invest in stocks from the right sectors and earn high risk-adjusted returns with lower drawdowns over an entire market cycle. Besides, it paves the way for stock exchanges and index manufacturers to launch sector-specific low-volatility indices for relevant sectors. Passive funds can launch index funds and exchange-traded funds by tracking these indices. Active fund managers can espouse sector-specific low-risk investment strategies based on the results of this and similar other studies.Originality/valueThe study is the first of its kind. It offers insights into the portfolio characteristics and performance of the long-short and the long-only variant of low-risk portfolios within sectors and industry groups. It decomposes the low-risk effect into sector-level and stock-level effects.

scholarly journals Low-risk effect: evidence, explanations and approaches to enhancing the performance of low-risk investment strategies

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 128-145
Author(s):  
Mayank Joshipura ◽  
Nehal Joshipura
Keyword(s):  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
The Body ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Investment Strategies ◽  
Momentum Effect ◽  
Risk Return ◽  
Risk Effect ◽  
Risk Investment

The authors offer evidence for low-risk effect from the Indian stock market using the top-500 liquid stocks listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India for the period from January 2004 to December 2018. Finance theory predicts a positive risk-return relationship. However, empirical studies show that low-risk stocks outperform high-risk stocks on a risk-adjusted basis, and it is called low-risk anomaly or low-risk effect. Persistence of such an anomaly is one of the biggest mysteries in modern finance. The authors find strong evidence in favor of a low-risk effect with a flat (negative) risk-return relationship based on the simple average (compounded) returns. It is documented that low-risk effect is independent of size, value, and momentum effects, and it is robust after controlling for variables like liquidity and ticket-size of stocks. It is further documented that low-risk effect is a combination of stock and sector level effects, and it cannot be captured fully by concentrated sector exposure. By integrating the momentum effect with the low-volatility effect, the performance of a low-risk investment strategy can be improved both in absolute and risk-adjusted terms. The paper contributed to the body of knowledge by offering evidence for: a) robustness of low-risk effect for liquidity and ticket-size of stocks and sector exposure, b) how one can benefit from combining momentum and low-volatility effects to create a long-only investment strategy that offers higher risk-adjusted and absolute returns than plain vanilla, long-only, low-risk investment strategy.

Variables influencing preferences for stocks (high risk investment) vis-à-vis fixed deposits (low-risk investment)

2014 ◽  
Vol 56 (4) ◽  
pp. 333-343 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sangeeta Arora ◽  
Kanika Marwaha
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Service Providers ◽  
Weighted Average ◽  
Important Variable ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Individual Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Risk Investment

Purpose – The paper, an exploratory attempt, aims to analyze the perception of individual investors of stock market of Punjab towards investing in stocks vis-à-vis fixed deposits. For the purpose, the most and least influencing variables affecting the decisions of individual stock investors to invest in stocks and fixed deposits were gauged and the comparison for such variables influencing their preferences was conducted. Design/methodology/approach – A pre-tested, well-structured questionnaire which was administered personally and the responses of 241 respondents were analyzed. The responses have been analyzed with the help of weighted average scores method used to identify the most and least influencing variables and paired sample t-test is applied to the data to identify if there exists any significant difference in the variables influencing the investment preferences for stocks (high-risk investment) vis-à-vis fixed deposits (low- and medium-risk investment). Findings – High returns was found as the most important variable while investing in stocks and stability of income as the most important variable while investing in fixed deposits. Religious reason is the only variable found as the least influencing variable for individual investors in Punjab while investing in both avenues, i.e. stocks and fixed deposits. Statistically significant difference exists in perception of individual investors for 22 variables towards the preference for stocks vis-à-vis fixed deposits. Practical implications – The current research will be helpful for financial service providers in understanding the investment preferences of the individual stock investors on the basis of variables influencing such preferences and suggest them investment options as per their perceptions and needs. Originality/value – This paper is a first of its kind to empirically compare the variables influencing the preferences for high-risk investments vis-à-vis low-risk investments of individual investors of Punjab, India and contributes to the understanding of the investor behaviour.

Analyzing the Influences of Passive Investment Strategies on Financial Markets via Agent-Based Modeling

2008 ◽  
pp. 224-238 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hiroshi Takahashi ◽  
Satoru Takahashi ◽  
Takao Terano
Keyword(s):  
Asset Pricing ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Agent Based Modeling ◽  
Investment Strategies ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Efficient Market ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Price Fluctuations

This chapter develops an agent-based model to analyze microscopic and macroscopic links between investor behaviors and price fluctuations in a financial market. This analysis focuses on the effects of Passive Investment Strategy in a financial market. From the extensive analyses, we have found that (1) Passive Investment Strategy is valid in a realistic efficient market, however, it could have bad influences such as instability of market and inadequate asset pricing deviations, and (2) under certain assumptions, Passive Investment Strategy and Active Investment Strategy could coexist in a Financial Market.

The profitability of herding: evidence from Taiwan

2018 ◽  
Vol 44 (7) ◽  
pp. 919-934 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chun-Da Chen ◽  
Riza Demirer
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
State Space Model ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Investment Strategies ◽  
Past Performance ◽  
Absolute Deviation ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Space Model ◽  
High Level

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to show that the level of herding in an industry can be the basis for a profitable investment strategy. Design/methodology/approach The authors apply three different herding measures in the paper, including cross-sectional standard deviation, cross-sectional absolute deviation and non-linear model – state–space model. Findings The authors find that industries that experience a high level of herding yield higher subsequent returns regardless of their past performance. Consequently, the authors show that a herding-based investment strategy generates significant profits, even after adjusting for risk. The findings also show that the herding effect when combined with past performance as part of a conditional investment strategy yields significant profits regardless of the formation and holding periods. The findings suggest that the level of herding could serve as a systematic driver of returns and could be exploited for profitable investment strategies. Originality/value To the best of authors’ knowledge, this is the first study in the literature to show that herding by itself can serve as a determinant of returns regardless of past performance.

scholarly journals Kidney Failure Risk Equation and Cost of Care in Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease

2021 ◽  
pp. CJN.06770521 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bhanu Prasad ◽  
Meric Osman ◽  
Maryam Jafari ◽  
Lexis Gordon ◽  
Navdeep Tangri ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Prescription Drugs ◽  
Kidney Failure ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Physician Visits ◽  
Risk Equation ◽  
Risk Of Progression ◽  
Risk Patients

Background and objectivesPatients with CKD exhibit heterogeneity in their rates of progression to kidney failure. The kidney failure risk equation (KFRE) has been shown to accurately estimate progression to kidney failure in adults with CKD. Our objective was to determine health care utilization patterns of patients on the basis of their risk of progression.Design, setting, participants, & measurementsWe conducted a retrospective cohort study of adults with CKD and eGFR of 15–59 ml/min per 1.73 m2 enrolled in multidisciplinary CKD clinics in the province of Saskatchewan, Canada. Data were collected from January 1, 2004 to December 31, 2012 and followed for 5 years (December 31, 2017). We stratified patients by eGFR and risk of progression and compared the number and cost of hospital admissions, physician visits, and prescription drugs.ResultsIn total, 1003 adults were included in the study. Within the eGFR of 15–29 ml/min per 1.73 m2 group, the costs of hospital admissions, physician visits, and drug dispensations over the 5-year study period comparing high-risk patients with low-risk patients were (Canadian dollars) $89,265 versus $48,374 (P=0.008), $23,423 versus $11,231 (P<0.001), and $21,853 versus $16,757 (P=0.01), respectively. Within the eGFR of 30–59 ml/min per 1.73 m2 group, the costs of hospital admissions, physician visits, and prescription drugs were $55,944 versus $36,740 (P=0.10), $13,414 versus $10,370 (P=0.08), and $20,394 versus $14,902 (P=0.02) in high-risk patients in comparison with low-risk patients, respectively, for progression to kidney failure.ConclusionsIn patients with CKD and eGFR of 15–59 ml/min per 1.73 m2 followed in multidisciplinary clinics, the costs of hospital admissions, physician visits, and drugs were higher for patients at higher risk of progression to kidney failure by the KFRE compared with patients in the low-risk category. The high-risk group of patients with CKD and eGFR of 15–29 ml/min per 1.73 m2 had stronger association with hospitalizations costs, physician visits, and drug utilizations.

Investment styles and the multifactor analysis of market timing skill

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-35
Author(s):  
Jarkko Peltomäki
Keyword(s):  
Factor Model ◽  
Market Timing ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Investment Strategies ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Multifactor Models ◽  
Multifactor Model ◽  
Investment Style ◽  
Investment Styles

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to present and demonstrate how the use of a multifactor model in the analysis of market timing skill can be misleading because the use of a multifactor model does not suit all investment styles equally well. If the factors of the analysis model do not span the portfolio holdings of a fund with less conventional investment strategy, the use of a multifactor model may even deteriorate the overall inference in measuring the market timing skill of a large sample of funds. Design/methodology/approach This study investigates the limitations of multifactor models in the analysis of market timing skill by applying the traditional Treynor-Mazuy and Henriksson-Merton analysis models of market timing skill using a set of “placebo” funds which are “natural” passive market timers. Findings The results of the study show that the incorporation of the Carhart four-factor model into the analysis of market timing skill considerably reduces the percentage of significant market timing results. But, as expected, the reduction of bias is not equal for different investment styles, and it works best when the factors of the analysis model are related to the investment style of the placebo portfolio. Practical implications This style-related limitation of multifactor models in the analysis of market timing skill may result in detecting funds with less conventional investment strategies as market timers since the factors used in the analysis are not likely to span their investment styles. Originality/value This study shows that the use of a multifactor model may lead to inferring passive market timers with less conventional investment styles as market timers. In addition, the findings of the study leave option replication approaches as more preferable bias corrections than multifactor extensions.

One piece does not a puzzle make: the first-mover decision as one piece on the foreign investment strategy puzzle

2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 193-208
Author(s):  
Bradley J. Koch
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Strategic Decision ◽  
Investment Strategies ◽  
Strategic Decisions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
First Mover Advantage ◽  
First Mover ◽  
Better Than

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyze the first-mover decision as one decision of a set of strategic decisions that ultimately determine performance. Design/methodology/approach – The author used survey data collected from foreign-invested firms in Sichuan, China, to test for evidence that first-movers perform better than late-movers. Findings – The results reveal that there is a first-mover advantage when the other strategic variables are not included in the model. When the entire set of strategic variables is included, however, the first mover variable loses its significance and the willingness of the foreign partner to commit additional resources becomes the best predictor of performance. Consequently, it was argued that foreign investment strategies should be analyzed as a set of strategic decisions managers make to formulate the best mix. Originality/value – The empirical evidence for the first-mover advantage may not be as well grounded as many have thought. When the first-mover strategic decision is analyzed in isolation from other strategic variables, which is commonly done in many empirical studies, it indicates that firms that enter China before their competitors perform better. Unfortunately, it is more logical to assume that managers dynamically develop a set of strategic decisions that ultimately determine the firm’s performance. To extrapolate one static decision from the strategic decision set and make broad assertions about its effect of performance is an over-simplification of the strategic decision process.

Market earnings expectation, measurement error in analysts’ consensus forecasts and prediction of stock returns

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 249-266
Author(s):  
Jung Hoon Kim
Keyword(s):  
Measurement Error ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Capital Markets ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Price Ratio ◽  
Investment Strategies ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Consensus Forecasts ◽  
Earnings Expectation

Purpose In capital markets research, analysts’ consensus forecasts are widely used as a proxy for unobservable market earnings expectation. However, they measure the market earnings expectation with error that may vary cross-sectionally, as the market does not consistently rely on analysts’ consensus forecasts to form earnings expectation (Walther, 1997). Based on this notion, this paper aims to relate the prediction of future stock returns to the cross-sectional variation of the error in measuring market earnings expectation embedded in analysts’ consensus forecasts. Design/methodology/approach This study uses empirical analyses based on stock returns and annual analysts’ consensus forecasts. Findings Based on the analytical work by Abarbanell et al. (1995), this study reports that when the measurement error in annual analysts’ consensus forecasts is the smallest, forward earnings-to-price ratio (constructed with annual analysts’ consensus forecasts) best explains future stock returns, and the forward earnings-to-price ratio-based investment strategy is the most profitable. Originality/value Findings of this study are useful to capital markets research that relies on the market earnings expectation and to practitioners seeking more profitable investment strategies.

The selection of popular trading strategies

2015 ◽  
Vol 41 (6) ◽  
pp. 563-581
Author(s):  
Yi-Tsai Chung ◽  
Tung Liang Liao ◽  
Yi-Chein Chiang
Keyword(s):  
Stock Markets ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Relative Performance ◽  
Investment Strategies ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Portfolio Managers ◽  
Practical Implications ◽  
Selection Of

Purpose – The relative performance of five popular nonzero-investment strategies, including Size, book-to-market ratios, earnings-to-price (E/P) ratios, cash flow-to-price (CF/P) ratios and dividend-to-price ratios, and their corresponding zero-investment strategies (also known as premiums) are first examined altogether for equally weighted (EW) and value-weighted (VW) methods to check whether a certain strategy (or some strategies) could be recommended to portfolio managers as the best (better) strategy (strategies). The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – This paper uses the stochastic dominance (SD) approach, a non-parametric test, to investigate the relative performance among various strategies and help investors search for the best or better strategy (strategies). Findings – The main results show that both the highest E/P and CF/P strategies (and their corresponding premiums) generally produce higher returns than the other three strategies (and their corresponding premiums) through allocating investors’ capital between the risky and risk-free assets for the EW and VW methods, respectively. Research limitations/implications – This study only examines US stock markets by SD approach, whether the results are consistent with non-US markets still needs further investigation. The findings imply that investors can benefit by investing in the highest E/P or CF/P stocks (or their corresponding premiums) to make more profit or less loss for US stock markets. Practical implications – First, the SD findings suggest that investors or portfolio managers can allocate their funds between risky and risk-free assets to maximize their profits. Next, the simulation results again prove that the profits of each nonzero-investment or zero-investment strategy for EW portfolios are higher than those of each corresponding strategy for VW portfolios. Finally, the findings imply that portfolio managers or investors can invest in the highest E/P or CF/P stocks (or their corresponding premiums) to make more profit or less loss. Originality/value – This study first uses an extensive data set (1952-2009) to examine the relative performance of nonzero-investment strategies and their corresponding zero-investment strategies for the five popular indicators altogether for the EW and VW methods with the SD approach for US stock markets. Moreover, the results reveal that the investors or portfolio managers can invest in the highest E/P and/or CF/P portfolios (or their corresponding premiums) to make more profit or less loss.

The impact of politics and economic policy uncertainty on anomaly-based investment strategies

2019 ◽  
Vol 45 (5) ◽  
pp. 654-670
Author(s):  
Cedric Mbanga ◽  
Jeffrey Scott Jones ◽  
Seth A. Hoelscher
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Hedge Funds ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Portfolio Performance ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Investment Strategies ◽  
Party Affiliation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore the overlooked relationship between politics and the performance of anomaly-based investment strategies. Design/methodology/approach Monthly long-short portfolios are formed based on relative mispricing scores according to the Stambaugh et al. (2012, 2015) relative mispricing measure. Portfolio performance is examined throughout various presidential terms. The design also introduces economic policy uncertainty (EPU) as a possible explanatory variable for portfolio performance. Findings The analysis reveals that anomaly-based returns are higher under Republican administrations than they are under Democratic administrations. Moreover, the results show that the impact of EPU on the relationship between the political party affiliation of the president and future anomaly-based returns are driven by the election and post-election years. Practical implications The examination of returns on a long-short portfolio may be of particular value to investment companies, such as hedge funds, who regularly employ this type of strategy. Originality/value While the impact of presidential terms on raw equity returns has been well examined, the paper is the first to examine the impact of presidential terms on the return of an anomaly-based investment strategy. EPU is also introduced as an important contributing factor.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document