Obama's push on nuclear arms control faces hurdles

Subject The US arms control agenda. Significance Despite having less than a year in office, President Barack Obama's administration is sustaining a high-profile arms control agenda in 2016. The administration wants to restore several damaged treaties with Russia, broaden Russia-China-US cooperation on various non-proliferation issues and leave Obama's successor a firm nuclear security architecture. Arms control is a consultative, long-term diplomatic process, and is susceptible to the political imperatives of more immediate regional crises. Impacts Tacit US support of Israeli nuclear opacity will undermine arms control efforts in the Middle East. Post-Obama arms control efforts are likely to focus on the security of nuclear material, rather than strategic arms reductions. Senate retirements will undermine US arms control advocacy in Congress. The United States will retain its nuclear arsenal indefinitely despite criticism from its allies.

Subject Impact of the US-China tariffs on the energy market. Significance Global trade is slowing, and the US-China trade tariffs are exacerbating the slowdown. US oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporters are finding alternative markets, but competitive pressures are likely to rise as both oil and LNG markets face oversupply. The tariffs on goods imported to the United States are also raising costs for the renewable and non-renewable sectors. Impacts US LNG producers could struggle to place cargoes as European gas storage approaches capacity. The large number of US offshore wind projects underway may be held back because the US-China tariffs are increasing project costs. Weak world trade and GDP growth is capping energy demand, offsetting supply worries and curbing oil price gains.


Significance Biles provided a high-profile but not uncommon example of the deterioration of individual wellbeing in the United States. Many public health indicators were pointing in that direction before COVID-19, yet US adults paradoxically reported themselves happier in 2020 than before the pandemic. Impacts The spotlight thrown by the pandemic on mental health issues may not translate into further research and better services. Young people report lower levels of wellbeing than other age groups but are more optimistic about labour market opportunities. Job losses due to automation and digitisation pose a significant long-term risk to wellbeing without pre-emptive interventions.


2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 79-102
Author(s):  
Nancy Jane Teeple

With a focus on the strategic competition between the United States and Russia, this paper explores the prospects for the future of arms control under an intensifying nuclear security dilemma. The end of stability-enhancing agreements such as the INF Treaty and Open Skies has accelerated the arms race. What is the future of New START and are we likely to see any extension beyond 2021? The relationship between arms control and strategic stability is part of this evaluation, particularly with respect to how states view the concept framed within their national security interests. The provocative role that offensive – deterrence by denial – capabilities play in contributing to strategic instability is central to this study. This work looks particularly at new systems designed for asymmetric advantage, including those that can defeat strategic defences, such as longer-range cruise missiles and hypersonic vehicles. Under conditions of modernizations and upgrades to nuclear arsenals, including the entanglement of conventional and nuclear systems that can threaten a first strike, this work considers how a dialogue on limiting dangerous systems could be initiated between the US and Russia. Could New START be revised – or a new treaty established – to limit advances in cruise missile technology, hypersonics, missile defences, and tactical nuclear weapons?


Subject Potential US adoption of a 'no first use' nuclear weapons policy. Significance The administration of US President Barack Obama is reportedly considering the adoption of a 'no first use' nuclear weapons posture in his final months in office. A no first use policy would involve the United States declaring that it would only use its nuclear arsenal in response to a nuclear attack, never as a preliminary move in escalating tensions. This shift would be a significant departure from Washington's earlier posture, which maintained ambiguity as to whether nuclear weapons would be used in a hypothetical conventional attack on the United States or its allies. Impacts Arsenal upgrades and shifts in doctrine favouring tactical nuclear weapons would counteract the benefits of a restrained declaratory policy. Technological breakthroughs with hypersonic missiles are likely to undermine existing legal and diplomatic arms control arrangements. Obama may take up the pursuit of nuclear arms reductions with an ex-president's public profile. Eastern NATO allies will react strongly against any hint that their security does not fall under the US nuclear umbrella.


Subject The US life sciences sector. Significance The US pharmaceutical company Gilead purchased rights and shares in the Belgian-Dutch firm Galapagos with a 5.1-billion-dollar agreement in mid-July. The move illustrates a trend in the life sciences industry (pharmaceuticals, biotechnology and other sectors based on biological knowledge): the effective outsourcing of research functions through mergers and acquisitions (M&A). Gilead pursued Galapagos, according to reports, for access to its drugs in development and those in its pipeline. However, there are questions about whether this strategy is sufficient for the sector long-term. Impacts Laws or rulings on data or genetic privacy will affect medical-data-reliant life sciences firms, posing shocks. This is less likely in the United States, where the industry has considerable lobbying power. A major EU data decision could bifurcate the life sciences industry.


Subject Prospects for nuclear arms control in 2019-23. Significance Russia and the United States have reached an apparent impasse on nuclear weapons. Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin warn of the dangers of a new nuclear arms race, but neither appears ready to make the concessions necessary to salvage the current arms control and non-proliferation regime. Attending a NATO foreign ministers' meeting yesterday, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo set a 60-day deadline for Russia to comply with the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty.


Subject China's international technology partnerships. Significance The US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) announced on March 26 that it is considering blocking federal subsidies for smaller telecom operators that use Chinese technology. The US government is determined to prevent Chinese companies such as Huawei and ZTE from developing a stronger base in the United States. This attitude, grounded in national security concerns, stands in contrast to the situation in many other markets where these companies have developed high-profile and close relationships with telecom operators and governments. Impacts Huawei and ZTE may overtake US firms in filing for patents. Telecom partnerships with developed and emerging economies are likely to increase Beijing’s influence over global internet governance. China’s low-cost high-tech equipment is likely to overcome security objections from intelligence agencies in other countries.


Significance Its capabilities do not match those of the United States except in a few narrow areas, and may never do so, but they do have increasingly significant strategic implications. Impacts Satellite navigation is the sector with the greatest economic potential for China in the near term. Advances in the development of space weapons make arms control both more urgent and more difficult. Satellite internet and lunar mining are areas of potential China-US competition in the medium and long term respectively. China's lunar programme benefits from more consistent policies than NASA, but suffers from a smaller budget and few international partners.


Author(s):  
Gilles Duruflé ◽  
Thomas Hellmann ◽  
Karen Wilson

This chapter examines the challenge for entrepreneurial companies of going beyond the start-up phase and growing into large successful companies. We examine the long-term financing of these so-called scale-up companies, focusing on the United States, Europe, and Canada. The chapter first provides a conceptual framework for understanding the challenges of financing scale-ups. It emphasizes the need for investors with deep pockets, for smart money, for investor networks, and for patient money. It then shows some data about the various aspects of financing scale-ups in the United States, Europe, and Canada, showing how Europe and Canada are lagging behind the US relatively more at the scale-up than the start-up stage. Finally, the chapter raises the question of long-term public policies for supporting the creation of a better scale-up environment.


Author(s):  
Abraham L. Newman ◽  
Elliot Posner

Chapter 6 examines the long-term effects of international soft law on policy in the United States since 2008. The extent and type of post-crisis US cooperation with foreign jurisdictions have varied considerably with far-reaching ramifications for international financial markets. Focusing on the international interaction of reforms in banking and derivatives, the chapter uses the book’s approach to understand US regulation in the wake of the Great Recession. The authors attribute seemingly random variation in the US relationship to foreign regulation and markets to differences in pre-crisis international soft law. Here, the existence (or absence) of robust soft law and standard-creating institutions determines the resources available to policy entrepreneurs as well as their orientation and attitudes toward international cooperation. Soft law plays a central role in the evolution of US regulatory reform and its interface with the rest of the world.


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