Philippines faces rising threat from Islamic State

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Airport Security ◽  
Regional Security ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Security Threat ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Peace Processes ◽  
Defence Spending ◽  
Military Work

Significance This is one of two peace processes that Duterte’s administration wants to advance; the other is with the communists. Both tracks face difficulties, and now, with military advances against Islamic State (IS) in the Middle East, the regional security threat facing South-east Asia and the Philippines is growing. Impacts Policing IS arrivals from the Middle East may mean additional sea, port and airport security, but this will need investment. The administration is likely to earmark additional defence spending. Tourism could suffer in parts of the Philippines south. Renewed communist attacks on energy, natural resources and extractives operations are likely. Talks with the communists will not be sufficient alone for peace; holistic police and military work is required but not forthcoming.

Russia's Syria intervention will empower jihadists

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Security Threat ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rebel Groups ◽  
Military Presence ◽  
Military Support ◽  
State Group

Significance Russia is primarily attacking the Syrian opposition, forcing rebel groups to rely more heavily on Syrian al-Qaida-affiliated Jabhat al-Nusra (JN) for military support. Meanwhile, Russia is launching relatively few strikes on Islamic State group (ISG), which is emphasising its hostility towards Russia in order to recruit, and to advance militarily. Impacts Russia's escalation will prolong Syria's civil war for several years, thereby promoting further radicalisation. Its continuation will ensure numerous extremist groups, including ISG, retain sanctuary in Syria. Russia will use ISG-linked terrorist attacks in the West to justify its expanded military presence in the Middle East. ISG will likely increase efforts to develop regional affiliates to gain strategic resilience. Russia will increase its leverage internationally, even as it exacerbates the security threat posed by ISG and al-Qaida.

Kuwait faces rising threat from Islamic State group

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Terrorist Attack ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Security Measures ◽  
Security Threat ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rebel Groups ◽  
Syrian Civil War ◽  
Political Freedoms ◽  
The Government ◽  
State Group

Significance The June 26 suicide attack inside the Imam al-Sadiq Mosque killed 27 people and was Kuwait's worst terrorist attack in over three decades. The attack, claimed by Islamic State group (ISG) and carried out by a Saudi citizen, was intended to inflame sectarian tensions that have spiralled in recent years. US officials have long identified Kuwait as an epicentre of funding and other forms of materiel assistance for participants in the Syrian civil war. However, unlike Qatar and Saudi Arabia, where support largely has flowed in one direction toward Sunni rebel groups, Kuwaitis have provided high-profile support to both the opposition and the Assad regime. Impacts The government will use the attack to reinforce its narrative that the bidun constitute a security threat rather than a human rights issue. Initial solidarity among Kuwait Sunni and Shia could dissipate quickly into political wrangling over the government's response. Kuwaiti salafi aid will boost hardline Islamist rebel groups in Syria. Key commercial and business interests, and oil installations are unlikely to be affected seriously by the rising terrorist threat. Reinforced security measures will further restrict political freedoms in the GCC's most open state.

Beijing seeks to promote security cooperation

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The Philippines ◽  
Strategic Partnership ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Regional Security ◽  
Mutual Support ◽  
Security Cooperation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
New Thinking ◽  
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation ◽  
Positive Outlook

Subject China's views on regional security cooperation. Significance China’s State Council has issued a manifesto for Asia-Pacific security that demonstrates the country’s growing diplomatic stature and asserts a positive outlook for the region’s peace and prosperity. It updates longstanding policies with a call for “new thinking” in the context of the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation”. Impacts The paper’s unusual emphasis on Afghanistan suggests deepening engagement in Central Asia, including the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. Russia will take comfort in assertions of deepening strategic partnership and “firm mutual support" vis-a-vis each other’s "core interests”. The 'friendship' of the Philippines may become a focus for China-US competition.

ISG is unlikely to infiltrate refugee flows to Europe

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Economic Crises ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Group ◽  
Foreign Fighters ◽  
The Eu ◽  
Inter State ◽  
Security Crises

Subject ISG infiltration of refugee flows. Significance Refugee arrivals in Europe in 2016, large if not at 2015 levels, will put yet more pressure on the EU, which is already struggling to address economic crises, political polarisation and inter-state divisions on how to address security crises in Ukraine and the Middle East. Suspicions have grown that among the refugees are operatives of the Islamic State group (ISG). Impacts ISG's foreign fighters in Iraq and Syria will seek to expand their relationships with existing extremist networks in Europe. Speculation over ISG's presence within refugee flows will continue, especially as far-right parties continue to perform well in elections. The EU-Turkey deal may slow refugee flows, but the existing numbers of refugees will continue to attract suspicion from authorities.

UK defence review presages global capability upgrade

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
Task Force ◽  
Transitional Period ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Civilian Workforce ◽  
Joint Task ◽  
Defence Spending ◽  
Joint Task Force ◽  
State Group

Significance SDSR 2015 revealed significant defence commitment decisions. Many of these correct choices made in the preceding SDSR 2010, and constitute an implicit recognition that the government's previous emphasis on cuts and savings may have been an error. Impacts The SDSR will boost Cameron's effort to win parliamentary backing for UK air strikes against Islamic State group (ISG) in Syria. UK-French cooperation will grow, including joint development of a combat drone, and a 10,000-strong Combined Joint Task Force due in 2016. Equipment decisions will boost firms including Lockeed Martin and Boeing (US), Dassault (France) and BAE, Rolls Royce and Babcock (UK). Higher defence spending, especially on replacing all four Trident nuclear submarines, will heighten political arguments over defence issues. A planned 30% cut to the Ministry of Defence's civilian workforce will have a negative impact, at least for a transitional period.

Muslim radicals face crackdown in Azerbaijan

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Regional Security ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Committee ◽  
The Government ◽  
Security Operations ◽  
State Group ◽  
Political Weapon ◽  
The Arab Spring ◽  
The Eu

Significance The bill's declared purpose is to prevent the import of foreign ideologies and to give law enforcement wider authority, in particular for 'special' security operations, arrests and searches. Its origins lie not in recent events in Nardaran but the destabilisation of the Middle East after the 'Arab spring', the chair of the parliamentary committee on religious organisations and public associations, Siyavush Novruzov, said. The secular regime sees a rising threat in radical Islam, represented by both Islamic State group (ISG) and a multitude of smaller groups. Impacts The government will strive for socioeconomic stability at all costs, expanding benefits and using the State Oil Fund's substantial reserves. The deteriorating regional security situation may undercut Azerbaijan's strategy of becoming a prime supplier of gas to Turkey and the EU. Baku will become more tempted to use anti-terrorism and anti-extremism as a political weapon against the domestic non-religious opposition. Azerbaijan's Shia form 75% of its Muslims, who form 97% of the population.

Online extremism poses new threats to South-east Asia

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
East Asian ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Suicide Bombings ◽  
The Military

Subject Online radicalisation. Significance On May 25, the Indonesian parliament unanimously passed stringent anti-terrorism laws allowing the military to be directly involved in counterterrorism operations. The vote followed a string of suicide bombings attributed to local jihadist networks that have pledged allegiance to Islamic State (IS). Jakarta joins other South-east Asian governments -- notably those of Malaysia, the Philippines and Singapore -- in attempting to counter a new push in the region by IS, as it loses territory in Iraq and Syria. Impacts Rising anti-Shia sentiment in the region, a by-product of increased Saudi influence, will likely give IS new issues to exploit. The Rohingya crisis gives IS a regional boost, especially in terms of operations in Myanmar and more likely in Yangon than Rakhine State. Non-ideological, low-wage overseas workers, particularly from the Philippines and Indonesia, are most susceptible to IS.

Islamic State will face obstacles to Afghan relocation

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Central Asian ◽  
Large Expansion ◽  
Central Asian Republics

Subject The Islamic State group's ambitions in Afghanistan. Significance In a bid to offset its reverses in Syria and Iraq, Islamic State (IS) is strengthening its Afghan presence with members arriving from abroad to join local recruits. Despite having a presence in Afghanistan since 2015, IS has not achieved the swift and large expansion it saw in the Middle East as it is competing with the long-established Taliban. Impacts If IS grows stronger in northern Afghanistan, it might revive plans to infiltrate Central Asian republics. Differences on how to deal with IS will divide the Taliban leadership. Russia and Iran will engage with parts of the Taliban and encourage them to fight IS.

After Islamic State, Middle East fissures will deepen

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Middle Eastern ◽  
Arabic Language ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Middle East Conflict ◽  
Local Support ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Recent Attack

Significance The salafi-jihadist group has lost almost all the territory it formerly held in Iraq and Syria. The recent attack on a mosque in Egypt’s Sinai also significantly reduced its local support. Arabic-language media are already looking to the next stages of Middle East conflict. Impacts The negative impact of IS losing its Raqqa propaganda centre on its efforts to control the narrative will be temporary. Following IS's loss of the Syria-Iraq border, Arabic press focus on the confrontation between Iran and US-linked forces will rise. The disappearance of IS as a territorial threat will likely increase divisions among Middle Eastern states.

Central Asia drives Syria repatriations to reduce risk

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Direct Link ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Central Asian ◽  
Women And Children ◽  
Muslim Majority ◽  
Reduce Risk

Subject Central Asian policies on repatriating nationals associated with Middle East insurgency. Significance Central Asian governments' concerns about radicalisation among Muslim-majority populations were amplified when hundreds of nationals went to Syria and Iraq in 2014-15 to join Islamic State (IS) and other jihadist groups. They are prioritising the repatriation of women and children, in contrast to European governments' reluctance to approve blanket returns. Impacts The security drive against local extremists will be sustained across Central Asia. Policies towards returning women will not be affected by IS-attributed attacks unless a direct link is made. In Russia, Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov is leading on repatriation efforts focused on children.

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