Modi’s Kashmir move puts India-Pakistan ties on brink

Subject Consequences of India revoking Jammu and Kashmir's special constitutional status. Significance Delhi denies reports that there was a large-scale anti-India protest on August 9 in Srinagar, headquarters of the majority-Muslim Kashmir Valley. Much of Jammu and Kashmir has been on lockdown since Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government on August 5 revoked the state’s special constitutional status and passed legislation to reorganise its governance. India and Pakistan administer different parts of Kashmir and dispute sovereignty over the region. Impacts China is unlikely to maintain much diplomatic pressure on India, following its initial expression of opposition to Delhi’s Kashmir move. Islamabad will urge Washington to confront Delhi over the Kashmir issue, probably to little avail. In India’s north-eastern states, fears that Delhi may attenuate special local rights are unlikely to be assuaged by government denials.

Significance Following the victory of his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) in elections late last month, he expressed a wish to improve relations with Pakistan's neighbour and traditional enemy India, especially on the disputed Kashmir valley. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, whose Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will seek to retain power in elections early next year, congratulated Khan on his poll win. Impacts Pakistan’s military may try to influence the Afghan parliamentary election in October. The security of Indian-administered Kashmir will deteriorate. India will lobby the United States to exert further political and economic pressure on Pakistan over cross-border militancy.


Significance Bringing the poll forward could be risky for Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong's People's Action Party (PAP), as it faces a new opposition party and worsening economic conditions. Impacts Tan Cheng Bock will at the next election attempt to unite the opposition behind his Progress Singapore Party. Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat will likely succeed as prime minister when Lee eventually leaves the post. Singapore's economy is unlikely to benefit from any large-scale redirecting of investment from Hong Kong, despite the protests there.


Subject Pakistan's response to India's recent Kashmir move. Significance Pakistan last week carried out a training launch of a surface-to-surface ballistic missile. The test raises questions about the (politically powerful) military’s intentions towards neighbour and enemy India, which early last month irked Islamabad by revoking Jammu and Kashmir state’s special constitutional status. Meanwhile, Pakistan is trying to support peace talks between the United States and the Taliban and aiming, by October, to extricate itself from an international watchlist of jurisdictions with weak measures against terrorist financing. Impacts China will maintain support for ally Pakistan but discourage an escalation of military tensions in South Asia. The United States will urge Pakistan and India to back a settlement in Afghanistan. India will continue to maintain restrictions on communications and movement in the Kashmir Valley.


Subject Prospects for East Asia in the second quarter of 2015. Significance Pronouncements made at the National People's Congress (NPC), which opened in Beijing yesterday, will give pointers on policy during the coming months. Debt has become a significant issue in the assessment of China's economic outlook. In Japan, nationwide local elections in April could see setbacks for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's government, hit in recent days by political funding scandals. Meanwhile, annual large-scale military exercises have just begun in South Korea, antagonising Pyongyang.


Subject Upcoming informal summit between Indian and Chinese leaders. Significance Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to be in India on October 11-13 for a second ‘informal’ summit with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The first such summit in Wuhan, China, in April 2018 prompted the two countries to tone down their differences following a border standoff the previous year. Since August this year, that rapprochement has come under pressure due to India’s constitutional changes in Jammu and Kashmir state, part of which is claimed by Beijing. Impacts Rivalry in the Indian Ocean could become a greater source of bilateral tension, depending on government transitions in the region. Since Indian majors are reportedly wary of using Huawei and ZTE core equipment in 5G trials, market barriers may expand in the tech sector. Chinese foreign direct investment in India will be constrained compared to China’s global outbound investment.


Subject India's foreign policy in South and South-east Asia. Significance Prime Minister Narendra Modi last month visited the Maldives and Sri Lanka, shortly after his election victory and reinauguration. Leaders of the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) had been invited to his swearing-in ceremony. When Modi came to power in 2014, invitations to his inauguration were sent to leaders of all countries in the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). Impacts India will try to improve infrastructure in its north-eastern states to facilitate integration with mainland South-east Asia. Delhi will seek support from Tokyo and Washington to execute development projects in the region. Pakistan in its diplomacy will turn more pronouncedly towards China and Saudi Arabia.


Significance Legislation dividing it into two union territories -- Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh -- was passed in early August, concurrently with the revocation of Jammu and Kashmir’s special constitutional status. In the highly restive Kashmir valley, a security lockdown remains in place. Impacts Delhi will try to control the media narrative on Kashmir by continuing to restrict access to the valley. Violence in the valley will increase, due to attacks by local insurgents and possibly also cross-border militancy. India’s ties with Turkey and Malaysia will deteriorate owing to their criticism of Delhi’s Kashmir policy.


2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 49-56
Author(s):  
Vajahat Khursheed ◽  
Mohammad Taufique

Horticulture industry is backbone of the economy of the Jammu and Kashmir, it has increased spontaneously from a recent couple of decades and had immensely impacted the socio-economic conditions of the inhabitants of the Rambiara Catchment. The study aimed to identify the varied land use and land cover categories prevailing over the Rambiara catchment and attempted to study the temporal changes. Multispectral images of the Landsat 7 and Landsat 8 were brought into use by making the LULC classes through the maximum supervised classification for the images of year 1999 and year 2019. Whole the study area was classified into eight major land cover categories i.e., Horticulture, Settlement, Water, Riverbed, Dense Forests, Sparce Forests and Waste Lands. The results obtained depicted that there was a large-scale positive change observed by the land cover categories of Horticulture +172.67 percent, Settlement +112.06 percent and sparse forest by +28.44 percent. The horticulture remained the highest achiever over the last 20 years and this is because of the high cash value realized from fruits, less agricultural production obtained from crops other than fruits and also due to changing climatic.


Significance The poll will see the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition, led by Prime Minister Najib Razak’s United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), face a challenge from the opposition Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition, featuring former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad’s Malaysian United Indigenous Party (PPBM) and Anwar Ibrahim’s People’s Justice Party (PKR). Impacts The dissolution of the PPBM or broader PH could result in large-scale street protests. Malaysia’s current levels of GDP growth are not enough to ease cost-of-living pressures, potentially hurting the BN. Selangor’s water crisis will not lead to agreement with the federal government over ownership of water assets.


2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-31
Author(s):  
Krishna K. Tummala

PurposeThis paper focuses on two examples of constitutional corruption in India where the constitution is used for questionable political reasons by the Bharatiya Janata Party under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.Design/methodology/approachThe paper relies on public documents and media reports to analyse Prime Minister Modi's handling of the purchase of Rafale jet fighters from France and the revocation of Articles 370 and 35A which resulted in the division of the State of Jammu and Kashmir.FindingsConstitutional and democratic norms were violated in both cases, but the Supreme Court did not find any irregularities in the sale of the Rafale jet fighters. The second case is under challenge in the Supreme Court. The analysis reveals how the Modi government has undermined democratic values and used constitutional provisions to pursue its partisan and ideological agenda.Originality/valueThe paper focuses attention on the often neglected topic of constitutional corruption in India.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document