Ethiopia's Tigray-federal standoff may escalate

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Regional Government ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Reforms ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has dismissed the possibility of a resort to force, but relations with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) regional government are rapidly unravelling. Impacts In the absence of any major opposition parties, Tigray’s elections will not be genuinely competitive. Tensions with Tigray may undermine cohesion in the armed forces, threatening national stability. Continued confrontations could detract from and delay implementation of a range of broader economic and political reforms.

Japan’s opposition will regroup in 2020

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Lower House ◽  
House Election ◽  
Step Down ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject The outlook for politics in Japan in 2020. Significance Domestic politics in 2020 will focus on four issues: reform of the country’s constitution, the competition to succeed Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, a possible snap lower house election and potential unification of the centre-left opposition parties ahead of it. Impacts Debates over constitution reform will likely result in a simple proposal to make Japan’s armed forces unambiguously constitutional. Abe’s promise to revise the constitution before the Tokyo Olympics next summer will be hard, if not impossible, to achieve. An expenses scandal currently dominating the headlines will embarrass Abe but is not a serious threat to him. Abe, now Japan’s longest-serving prime minister ever, is likely to step down in 2021.

Modi’s party will be relaxed about upcoming polls

2022 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
Chief Minister ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
National Profile ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance Each of these states except Punjab has a government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Punjab is one of just three states with a chief minister that belongs to India’s main opposition Congress party. Impacts A poor showing by Congress would further reduce its leverage with other opposition parties in talks over forming a broad anti-Modi alliance. Victory in UP would enhance Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s national profile. Election campaigning will likely lead to a spike in COVID-19 cases.

Japan-Malaysia defence ties may estrange Beijing

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South China Sea ◽  
South China ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Coast Guard ◽  
The South China Sea ◽  
Strategic Partnership ◽  
The South ◽  
Content Type ◽  
China Sea

Subject The outlook for deepening defence links between Japan and Malaysia. Significance Chinese Politburo member Yu Zhengsheng warned visiting Japanese lawmakers on June 29 that the South China Sea maritime disputes have "nothing to do with Japan". This comes amid new developments in South-east Asian governments' efforts to strengthen security cooperation with Japan. Among them is the agreement between Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on May 25 to elevate bilateral ties to the level of 'Strategic Partnership'. This reflects Malaysia's growing concern over China's actions in the South China Sea, which are increasingly expanding southwards, affecting Malaysian-claimed territorial waters. Malaysian officials on June 9 announced a complaint to China over a Chinese coast guard vessel near Luconia Shoals. Impacts The Philippines's armed forces are less powerful than Malaysia's, implying more scope to develop Japan-Philippines defence ties. Vietnam, and perhaps Indonesia, may be the next ASEAN countries to seek deeper defence ties with Japan. Malaysian criticism of China over the South China Sea could see a more assertive ASEAN over disputed maritime claims.

Modi may yet face a real opposition if it can unite

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
West Bengal ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
National Level ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Popular Support ◽  
Communal Violence ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
The Creation ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject The likely strategy of the BJP's opponents. Significance The opposition to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lacks a coherent strategy at national level ahead of elections due in 2019. However, the large turnout at a public rally in Patna late last month, where Lalu Prasad Yadav brought together representatives of 18 opposition parties, suggests that there is popular support for a challenge to the BJP. Impacts States in which elections are due are more likely to see outbreaks of communal violence. Sonia Gandhi will come under increasing pressure to relinquish leadership of the Congress party. The BJP may support the creation of a separate Gorkhaland, at the risk of alienating support in the rest of West Bengal.

Canada faces federal-provincial gridlock on policy

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Federal Government ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
New Right ◽  
Election Campaign ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Carbon Taxes ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Border Trade ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject Canadian provincial and federal politicial dynamics. Significance As Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s term gets underway, Quebec is beginning its election campaign, running to October 1; the centre-right Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ) will likely perform well. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau faces a fractious final year, as relations worsen between the Liberal federal government and various new right-wing provincial governments. Leading issues are migration, carbon taxes, cross-border trade and right-wing provincial governments’ socially conservative and fiscally austere agendas. Impacts Failed NAFTA renegotiations would hurt Trudeau’s administration before 2019 and necessitate further post-2019 negotiations. Right-wing provincial premiers will still cooperate with Trudeau to mitigate the effect of US trade tariffs on Canada. Currently, Trudeau and the Liberals are likely to win in 2019, but opposition parties will gain votes.

Iraqi media and online commentators face new threats

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Media Use ◽  
Civil Conflict ◽  
Regional Government ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
The Media ◽  
Run Up ◽  
Trade And Investment

Significance The advent of the new federal prime minister, Mustafa al-Kadhimi, himself a former journalist, brought a temporary lull, but deadly partisanship is now returning to the media scene. To the north, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), under tightening economic and pressure, has forcibly closed media outlets and put forward a draconian new law. Impacts Media use of disinformation and ‘fake’ content will likely escalate in the run-up to the federal polls. Tehran could step up its funding of key television channels to cement a dominant pro-militia narrative in Iraqi Shia politics. Deeper anger over nepotism and corruption in the KRG will undermine stability, but there is no likelihood of outright civil conflict. A clumsy crackdown may undermine the Kurdistan region’s reputation as a stable and safe location for international trade and investment.

Pakistan likely to avoid direct involvement in Yemen

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Energy Sector ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Direct Involvement ◽  
Gulf Countries ◽  
Naval Ship ◽  
Parliamentary Support ◽  
Public Criticism

Significance The Pakistani armed forces are reportedly already involved in the campaign: some troops have been deployed in Saudi Arabia and a naval ship is stationed off the Yemeni coast. However, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's government is facing strong public criticism for jumping into this conflict, and has been forced to seek parliamentary support. Parliament's decision will have serious repercussions for Pakistan's Shia-Sunni dynamic and key regional relations. Impacts Sharif's handling of Riyadh will be key to securing future aid, especially for the energy sector. Islamabad will not wish to alienate Tehran over Yemen, even though Yemen is relatively peripheral to Iranian interests. Pakistan's long-standing security ties with Gulf countries will not be fundamentally altered by its decision on Yemen.

Failed reforms threaten to weaken Iraq's Abadi

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Support ◽  
Political Elite ◽  
Fiscal Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Regional Government ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Wide Scale

Significance His call comes as Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi is seeking to revive plans for wide-scale reform of government, with a new initiative to replace cabinet ministers with technocrats. Launched last August, the reforms seek to cut Iraq's bloated government and tackle rampant corruption, but are encountering tough opposition from all sectors of the political elite. Impacts Efforts to push through ministerial change will weaken Abadi's support base among Shia parties. Longer term, failure on reform may see Abadi lose the backing of the Shia clergy, his strongest source of political support and legitimacy. This would leave Abadi dependent on US support, increasing the risk of efforts to remove him and replace with a pro-Iran figure. Without reform, Iraq's fiscal crisis will worsen and pressure for decentralised regional government will increase.

Putin will stand back from Russia's Duma polls

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Communist Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Force ◽  
Popular Support ◽  
Economic Problems ◽  
Vladimir Putin ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject The Russian president's options for winning September elections. Significance The September 2016 elections to Russia's parliament, the State Duma, are the first to coincide with a severe economic crisis since President Vladimir Putin came to power. The authorities are determined to prevent social discontent escalating into the kind of protests seen after the last polls in December 2011, which unsettled Putin's plans for re-election in March 2012. Popular support for Putin remains high, and 'loyal opposition' parties such as the Communists are blaming economic problems on Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev instead. Impacts Signs that the recession is slowing will reduce the scope for a protest vote. Putin is keen to get EU sanctions lifted by July, not least for the electoral benefits. Buoyed by growing popular support, the Communist Party may evolve into a more active political force.

Singapore ruling party faces critical contest

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Electoral Politics ◽  
September 11 ◽  
General Election ◽  
Foreign Workers ◽  
Founding Father ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The City ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject Outlook for Singapore's 2015 general election. Significance Singapore will hold a general election on September 11, its first since the death of the city-state's founding father, Lee Kuan Yew. Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has braced his long-incumbent People's Action Party (PAP) for a more difficult contest at the polls than in 2011, with opposition parties expected to better the 10% share of parliamentary seats they held on the dissolution of parliament on August 25. Impacts The People's Action Party will need to define a post-Lee Kuan Yew legacy. The post-September government will need to balance popular concern over foreign workers with Singapore's need for labour. Singaporean electoral politics will become increasingly competitive.

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