Rival Yemen governments face distinct, deep challenges

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Security Council ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Recognition ◽  
International Mediation ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
Territorial Control ◽  
National Salvation ◽  
North And South ◽  
Northern Highlands

Significance Most countries, and the UN Security Council, reserve international recognition for Hadi’s government-in-exile in Riyadh. The rival Huthi-led National Salvation Government (NSG) in the capital, Sana’a, has been in office for four years. Its territorial control is limited to the northern highlands, containing around 80% of Yemen’s population. Impacts New surges in COVID-19 transmission and cases in both north and south will likely further undermine humanitarian outcomes. The incoming US Biden administration could boost international mediation efforts -- but Yemen will be a low initial priority. Skirmishing between the northern and southern authorities could escalate again, especially in Marib and Hodeida, but to little effect.

Assassination threatens to destabilise Haiti further

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Dominican Republic ◽  
Security Council ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Public Support ◽  
The State ◽  
Gang Violence ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
Political Turmoil

Significance The assassination follows months of political turmoil and rising gang violence and comes just weeks before elections, scheduled for September 26. Interim Prime Minister Claude Joseph, who has taken charge of the country, said yesterday that measures were being taken “to guarantee the continuity of the state and to protect the nation". Impacts Further political assassinations would exacerbate unrest. The Dominican Republic has closed its border, fearing a migrant surge; the situation will bolster public support there for a border wall. The UN Security Council meets today and may authorise emergency action in Haiti; any substantial redeployment, however, would take time.

Russia may entrench its influence in CAR

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Human Rights ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Security Council ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mining Sites ◽  
Un Security Council

Significance Russia on June 28 rejected as “lies” similar allegations by the United States, United Kingdom and France at the UN Security Council. The exchanges come against the backdrop of rising diplomatic tensions between Russia and France in CAR. Impacts Touadera’s ongoing offensive against rebel forces threatens to deliver a fatal blow to the peace deal he struck with them in 2019. Expanding Russian control over key mining sites could be a persistent source of frictions absent sophisticated local arrangements. Human rights concerns will deter some African leaders from engaging with Russia, but not all.

Syria may spur global rise in unilateral intervention

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Security Council ◽  
Humanitarian Intervention ◽  
International Standards ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Military Operations ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
Broad Interpretation ◽  
State Group ◽  
Syrian Conflict

Subject Syria and international norms of war. Significance The Syrian conflict has prompted intervention by a number of states, both directly and by proxy. The participation of all but one of the five UN Security Council permanent members (except China) in military operations in Syria raises questions over whether the norms of legal and ethical grounds for intervention have changed as a result of the conflict. Impacts Justifications will include broad interpretation of 'humanitarian intervention' to conceal real intentions. The UN will have less ability to assert itself when the leading powers choose to ignore, or interpret selectively, international standards. Collective international action against Islamic State group in Syria may build.

Libya unity deal will produce patchy stability

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Security Council ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
National Congress ◽  
The Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
To Come

Significance The deal aims to create a 'Government of National Accord' to resolve the rivalry between the two competing parliaments, the Tripoli-based General National Congress (GNC) and the Tobruk-based House of Representatives (HoR). Although the HoR signed the deal, the GNC refused to accept it. Yet several other important GNC allies signed the agreement. This skirted outright failure of the UN peace process, but gives the mooted unity government a very shaky basis on which to proceed. Impacts Fissures within the Muslim Brotherhood and the GNC will likely dilute their influence in Libya. The UN Security Council will increase pressure on rejectionists to come into the fold or face sanctions and isolation. The deal may well result in peaceful, functioning areas, such as Misrata, keen to attract investment. However, other areas, such as Benghazi, will likely continue to see violence, which would cloud prospects for investment in stable areas.

South African foreign policy will see cosmetic changes

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
South African ◽  
Security Council ◽  
Land Reform ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Investment Climate ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Un Security Council

Subject South African foreign policy. Significance President Cyril Ramaphosa has focused largely on domestic issues in his first six months in office. However, a push for new foreign direct investment of 100 billion dollars over five years, coupled with the securing of a non-permanent seat on the UN Security Council from 2019-20, have raised hopes of a fresh foreign policy approach across several fronts. Impacts Despite Ramaphosa's reassurances, radical land reform proposals could undermine attempts to improve the wider investment climate. New US tariffs on steel, aluminium and possibly automobiles could offset advantages from the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). Confidence-building economic measures will be necessary to stem the large sale of government bonds by foreigners.

Tunisia’s leader will disrupt diplomatic establishment

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Security Council ◽  
Civil Servants ◽  
Policy Agenda ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Autonomous Action ◽  
Counter Terrorism ◽  
Political Appointees ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
Harsh Criticism

Subject The Tunisian president's foreign policy agenda. Significance On February 7, President Kais Saied dramatically sacked Moncef Baati, Tunisia’s permanent representative at the UN. Baati had been sitting on the UN Security Council, where the country took up a seat last month, and was chairing its counter-terrorism committee. His dismissal, and the harsh criticism issued against him by the presidency, have alienated many civil servants. This carries risks for Saied, a retired law professor and political outsider, who as president is now solely responsible for determining foreign policy, on which he has some unconventional views, as well as ambitious goals. Impacts Civil servants are likely to obstruct or even actively sabotage initiatives by the presidency. Saied may seek to replace career diplomats with political appointees to bypass institutional resistance. Tunisia’s next UN ambassador will have little scope for autonomous action. Morocco will block Saied’s plans to initiate a regional dialogue over Western Sahara’s status.

Somalia's military manoeuvres raise regional risk

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Security Council ◽  
Local Communities ◽  
Content Type ◽  
North East ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
Regional Risk

Significance The strongly worded statement came shortly after Somalia came in for criticism in the UN Security Council for deploying hundreds of troops to Jubaland’s Gedo region, near the border with Kenya, amid an ongoing battle for influence with Jubaland President Ahmed Madobe, a Kenyan ally. Impacts Further unrest may undermine FGS support among Gedo clans, as violence and displacement of local communities take a toll. An FGS military offensive against opponents in Galmudug region will deepen fears of aggression elsewhere. Growing discord between Ethiopian, Kenyan and Somali forces will hamper the AU Mission in Somalia’s already difficult withdrawal plans. The FGS may try to leverage political divisions in north-east Kenya to increase pressure on Nairobi. Al-Shabaab may exploit the domestic political chaos to entrench its position further.

Western Saharan frustration may trigger local violence

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
United Nations ◽  
Security Council ◽  
African Union ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Western Sahara ◽  
Regional Conflict ◽  
High Commissioner ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
Legal Battle

Subject Progress on the Western Saharan conflict Significance The UN Security Council (UNSC) voted on April 28 to extend for another year the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO). The force observes a ceasefire (since 1991) between Morocco and the Polisario Front in the Western Sahara (the organisation recognised by the UN as representing Sahrawis). African Union (AU) demands to upgrade MINURSO's mandate to include human rights monitoring in the contested territory were rejected. Instead the watered down resolution calls on Morocco and the Polisario Front to "enter a more intensive and substantive phase of negotiations" in order to reach a political solution. Impacts Sahrawi activists backed by Algeria will wage a legal battle against international companies cooperating with Morocco in Western Sahara. Diplomatic tension and competition between Morocco and Algeria will intensify and complicate regional conflict resolution efforts. However, a direct military confrontation between Morocco and Algeria is unlikely. The UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCR) may become more active in monitoring human rights in Western Sahara. This could create tension between OHCR and Rabat, and raise scrutiny on firms seeking to invest in Western Sahara or import goods.

Migration will shape Eritrea's foreign relations

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Security Council ◽  
Foreign Relations ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Human Rights Abuses ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
The Eu

Significance Large-scale emigrations of Eritreans factor into Asmara's foreign relations. Eritrean migration is more than a humanitarian concern; it is shaping relationships with the EU and neighbouring states. Impacts Anti-migration funding may strengthen Eritrean-Sudanese relations but increase tensions with Ethiopia. Additional reports of human rights abuses could deter European support, but immigration concerns may take precedence. Ethiopia's election to the UN Security Council will restrict any progress Asmara hopes to make within the UN.

Economic woes could raise tensions between the Sudans

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Security Council ◽  
South Sudan ◽  
Economic Cooperation ◽  
Free Access ◽  
Syrian Refugees ◽  
Content Type ◽  
South Sudanese ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
Arms Embargo ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Economic outlook for Sudan and South Sudan. Significance Earlier this month, Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir ordered the border with South Sudan to be reopened. It was formally closed in 2011, though enforcement has eased since 2012 due to deepening economic cooperation, formalised in several agreements stipulating the financial terms for exporting South Sudanese oil through Sudan's pipelines to Port Sudan. Impacts Russian opposition will probably scupper other UN Security Council proposals to impose an arms embargo on South Sudan. Growing -- albeit small -- numbers of Syrian refugees will likely settle in Khartoum, facilitated by their visa-free access to Sudan. Uganda and South Sudan will proceed on finalising demarcation of their common, disputed border, but localised tensions could persist.

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