Palestinians’ US rapprochement will hit a dead end

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Vaccination Programme ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Support ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Dead End ◽  
West Bank And Gaza

Significance New US President Joe Biden plans to reopen the Palestinians’ diplomatic mission in the United States, shuttered by his predecessor Donald Trump during a comprehensive breakdown of ties in 2018. The PA seeks to use a short window of intense anti-Trump sentiment to change basic US assumptions and has promised elections this year to burnish its democratic credentials. Impacts Restored US aid could produce an immediate economic upswing in the West Bank and Gaza. Israel could further extend its COVID-19 vaccination programme to Palestinians as a low-cost goodwill gesture. Dominant PA leaders who have staked their entire political lives on a two-state solution will cling to it despite receding prospects. The PA has proven resilient so far, but if it began to crack, lack of political support means it could disintegrate quickly.

Russia prioritises ties with West despite its rhetoric

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Cooperation ◽  
Security Threats ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
The West ◽  
Policy Document ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Near Term

Subject Russia's new foreign policy document. Significance A new foreign policy concept presents Russia as a nation facing a range of security threats but nevertheless willing to play a global role in a multipolar, chaotic and unpredictable world. Replacing the 2013 foreign policy concept, the document also attempts to assuage fears of Russian expansionist intent. Impacts Assumptions about the United States may change rapidly under President Donald Trump. Moscow will strengthen its foothold in Syria as a bargaining chip with the West and to show its resolve not to back down under pressure. Russia will refuse to relax control over Ukraine's eastern regions. Asian policy will consist partly of courting China and partly of seeking alliances to counterbalance this. Economic cooperation with Japan will be constrained by lack of a near-term deal on territorial issues.

Israeli-US leader ties will be functional but fraught

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Financial Support ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
West Bank ◽  
The United States ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Future War

Significance This also comes as indirect US nuclear talks with Iran resume in Vienna, despite concerted Israeli opposition. US President Joe Biden is in effect withdrawing the unconditional backing his predecessor Donald Trump gave Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu. Impacts The Gaza ceasefire will be fragile, with a significant chance of renewed hostilities in the short-to-medium term. The appointment of a new Mossad chief, David Barnea, may lower the profile of but will not materially change Israeli-US intelligence ties. The United States will further increase financial support to both Gaza and the West Bank. In a more serious possible future war against Hezbollah, Washington might not back a major Israeli military incursion into Lebanon.

Prospects for Russian foreign policy in 2018

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Middle East ◽  
East Asia ◽  
The United States ◽  
Russian Foreign Policy ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type

Subject Prospects for Russian foreign policy in 2018. Significance Relations with the United States under President Donald Trump have failed to improve in the ways Moscow hoped and sanctions have intensified rather than eased. Moscow is therefore maintaining confrontational strategies towards the West while consolidating existing ties with China, Iran and Syria, and diversifying into new areas of the Middle East and East Asia.

Canada-US ties will see fewer irritants under Biden

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Oil Industry ◽  
The United States ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Federal Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Un Peacekeeping ◽  
Keystone Xl ◽  
Keystone Xl Pipeline

Significance Canada’s Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is preparing to welcome a more predictable and stable partner in Biden than outgoing Republican President Donald Trump. However, Biden is also expected quickly to cancel the Keystone XL pipeline, cutting another lifeline to Canada’s oil industry and creating some strain in Canada-US ties. Impacts Improved Canada-US ties will persist even if Trudeau loses the next federal election to Conservative Erin O’Toole. Canada will re-engage militarily with UN peacekeeping and NATO deployments. Trudeau will encourage Biden to end US prosecution of Meng Wanzhou, allowing Canada to release her; Biden may agree. Canada’s border with the United States will open in stages as COVID-19 recedes. Ottawa will push Biden to end ‘Buy American’ procurement policies, with little success.

Book Review: In the Ruins of Neoliberalism by Wendy Brown

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chané Henney
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
The West ◽  
Free Markets ◽  
Traditional Morality

This review examines Wendy Brown's argument that neoliberalism led to the resurgence of antidemocracy in the West. It is argued that Brown's main arguments offer a valid explanation of the hard-right's appeal to conservatives in the United States. This ultimately led to an overwhelming support for Donald Trump as president of the U. S. The author exposes the antidemocratic effects of the Hayekian view of democracy, which is largely based on the support of free markets and traditional morality.   

Pragmatism may win out in Turkey over anti-Westernism

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Considerable Uncertainty ◽  
Political Trauma ◽  
Coup Attempt

Subject Foreign policy after the attempted coup. Significance Before the July 15 coup attempt, foreign policy was showing signs of turning towards pragmatism from the ambitious positions associated with former Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu. Rapprochement was sought with both Russia and Israel, and relations with the United States and EU were relatively stable. The attempted coup introduces considerable uncertainty. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's insistence that US-based cleric Fethullah Gulen was behind it is drawing the United States into Turkey's most serious political trauma in decades. Impacts Relations with the West are unlikely to return to their pre-coup warmth soon. The most likely result for US-Turkish relations is what may be termed a 'stressed-out partnership of convenience'. How both US-Turkish relations and Turkey's conflict with the PKK develop will determine Turkish policy on Syria and the ISG.

EU may not develop a joint stance on Chinese FDI soon

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Domestic Economy ◽  
The West ◽  
Economic Strategy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Foreign Companies ◽  
The Eu

Subject Chinese FDI into Europe. Significance China's hosting of the G20 summit on September 4-5 came as it is recalibrating its foreign economic strategy, becoming a major investor in the West and particularly the EU. With a few notable exceptions, EU governments have been keen to encourage those investments. Impacts While China will continue to relax restrictions on investments into its domestic economy, it is unlikely to reciprocate fully to the EU. Sectors China considers strategic, including defence equipment and infrastructure, will remain out of bounds to foreign companies. Concerns about the geostrategic risk of Chinese investments appear to resonate more strongly in Australia and the United States than the EU.

Bulgarian party split may help revive Russian gas plan

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
European Commission ◽  
The United States ◽  
Gas Pipeline ◽  
Political Support ◽  
The South ◽  
Content Type ◽  
South Stream ◽  
Pipeline Project

Significance Mestan also implied that Borisov and Dogan were allied in promoting Russian interests in Bulgarian politics -- while Bulgaria's 'yellow press' accuses him of being a Turkish puppet. On January 13, Borisov dismissed reports that he was keen to revive the South Stream gas pipeline project, but confirmed that Bulgaria was lobbying the European Commission for a Varna gas hub that would revive at least the underwater part of South Stream bringing Russian natural gas to Europe. Impacts DPS realignment will strengthen Borisov's hand domestically, but alienate Turkey and worry the United States. His interest in a gas hub enjoys overwhelming support in both government and opposition, with only about 20 deputies likely to oppose it. Broadly coinciding with Russian interests, the hub must now secure EU financial and political support, in the teeth of US opposition.

US missile defence plans will prove overly ambitious

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Vice President ◽  
The United States ◽  
Nuclear Forces ◽  
Missile Defense ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Defence Policy ◽  
Major Review ◽  
Missile Attack

Subject The Pentagon's recent Missile Defense Review. Significance President Donald Trump this month unveiled the first major review of US missile defence policy since 2010. Trump and his vice president have become staunch missile defence advocates, championing expansion in conjunction and coordination with efforts to create a Space Force. The ambitious effort outlined in the Pentagon’s Missile Defense Review this month would take the current, regionally focused missile defence programme and expand it so that it can, according to Trump, protect US nationals from missile attack, "anywhere, anytime, anyplace". Impacts US advances in defensive capabilities will trigger technological escalation as China and Russia move to improve offensive capabilities. Washington likely cannot afford to keep pace with potential adversaries' offensive capabilities because defensive capabilities cost more. If the United States overtly ‘weaponises’ space, other countries will follow. The demise of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces treaty will bring a whole class of destabilising missiles back into the equation.

Prospects for the global economy in 2018

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
The United States ◽  
Industrial Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Open Markets

Subject PROSPECTS 2018: Global economy Significance Global GDP growth is likely to edge higher in 2018 as trade, investment and employment expand. However, monetary policy is gradually tightening, fiscal expansion is limited and there is little chance of a repeat of the surprise boost from trade seen in 2017 or a recovery in productivity. Inflation may remain obdurately low in the United States, Japan and the euro-area but not sufficiently to deter the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the ECB from gently reeling in their bond-buying programmes. Modestly higher commodity prices should support economic recovery in resource producers. Impacts The timing of elections in the United States, Canada and Mexico may prolong the NAFTA trade talks into 2019 or beyond. China will battle any US attempts to constrain its innovation and access to technology, which it sees as key to its rebalancing. Technological progress and more open markets exacerbate the unpredictability of jobs and wages, but policy will increasingly address this. Automation means the job intensive low-cost industrial growth engine is now less effective; developing countries must consider new models. A better balance of power between multinationals, international organisations and governments will be key to global tax cooperation.

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