Gap between France’s Macron and Le Pen is narrowing

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Support ◽  
Fiscal Rules ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Law And Order ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investment Agreement ◽  
State Investment ◽  
The Eu

Significance Nevertheless, Le Pen remains the most serious threat to President Emmanuel Macron's hopes for re-election in 2022. She stands above him in some national polls, reflecting her success in broadening RN’s appeal, widespread anti-establishment sentiment and Macron’s unpopularity and mixed record on COVID-19. Impacts To revive the economy, Macron will likely campaign for reform of EU fiscal rules to enable greater levels of state investment. Further terrorist attacks or assaults on police would increase the salience of immigration and law and order ahead of the 2022 election. Ahead of the election, Macron will be reluctant to show public support for the EU-China investment agreement.

Germany’s coalition faces division on several fronts

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Policy Decision ◽  
Public Image ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Strong Emphasis ◽  
Investment Agreement ◽  
Policy Decision Making ◽  
The Eu

Significance The three parties successfully negotiated a coalition agreement with a strong emphasis on modernising Germany’s economy. Throughout the negotiations, the parties presented a public image of stability and harmony, yet several divisive issues will test the new government's stability and effectiveness. Impacts The composition of the new government will make it harder for Berlin to win approval for the EU-China Comprehensive Investment Agreement. Chancellor Olaf Scholz will seek to prioritise more unity at the EU level when it comes to foreign policy decision-making. The spread of the Omicron variant will slow economic recovery and potentially delay the transition to a greener economy.

EU may struggle to enforce social standards via trade

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Environmental Standards ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Social Standards ◽  
Investment Agreement ◽  
Trade Deals ◽  
First Time ◽  
Trade Partners ◽  
The Eu

Significance In 2020 the European Commission appointed a Chief Trade Enforcement Officer for the first time, signalling that Brussels is intent on enhancing its capacity to enforce standards agreed in trade deals. However, the EU's experience with South Korea suggests that holding trade partners to account over breaching standards will be difficult. Impacts Relations with trade partners could deteriorate if the EU is seen to be aggressive in enforcing its standards. Concern over China’s willingness to improve labour and environmental standards could impede ratification the EU-China investment agreement. The EU may be reluctant to sanction some partners, such as the United States, that breach labour or environmental standards.

Europe's airlines will see more restructuring

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Airline Industry ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Underlying Condition ◽  
The Past ◽  
Low Cost Carrier ◽  
The Eu

Subject Europe's airline industry. Significance Despite good performance over the past year, the underlying condition of the European airline industry has not changed. Major carriers are still facing competitive challenges from long-haul airlines based in the Gulf, especially Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad Airways, and from the European low-cost carrier (LCC) sector. Impacts The fallout from recent terrorist attacks could hit the industry's fragile recovery. Labour unrest in France will affect Air France, as its pilots voted on May 30 to go on strike over pay conditions. A UK exit from the EU would force its airlines, some of the most efficient in Europe, to reconsider the focus of their operations. New opportunities may arise from the Commission's efforts to negotiate aviation agreements with such countries as Brazil as well as ASEAN.

COVID-19 will likely widen Spanish-Catalan divisions

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Public Support ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Plan ◽  
Political Consensus ◽  
Reconstruction Period ◽  
The Eu

Subject COVID-19 impact on Spanish politics. Significance Spain is one of the world’s worst-affected countries by COVID-19. Its economic recovery will also be slower and more disjointed than elsewhere. In order to address these unprecedented challenges, Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez is seeking to negotiate a cross-party agreement -- known as the Moncloa Pacts -- involving all non-extreme parties. The talks aim to create a broad political consensus over how to tackle Spain’s social and economic reconstruction, making it easier and faster to implement policy. Impacts A bipartisan pact would likely boost Sanchez’s public support, given that he is the leader pushing for national cooperation. The existence of a pact would strengthen Sanchez’s push for the EU to share the burden of economic reconstruction. The EU’s failure to implement a coordinated economic plan for the reconstruction period would fuel Euroscepticism in Spain.

Moderation is waning in Italy-EU conflict

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
European Commission ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Fiscal Rules ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Borrowing Costs ◽  
Deficit Reduction ◽  
Parallel Currency ◽  
Excessive Deficit Procedure ◽  
The Eu

Subject Italy's budget conflict. Significance June 5 marked a resumption in hostilities between Italy and the EU, after the European Commission sent a letter to Rome saying its spending plans were breaking EU fiscal rules. The Commission will now begin the process of implementing an excessive deficit procedure (EDP) against Italy aimed at reducing its deficit and debt. This will likely involve deficit reduction measures that could precipitate the collapse of the populist government. Impacts If an EDP is blocked, efforts to launch it will start again in September if Italy’s budget preview shows Rome not complying with EU rules. An EDP could lead to higher borrowing costs and make it more difficult for Rome to reduce its excessive debt, which is around 132% of GDP. A League-led right-wing government would push for aggressive tax cuts, potentially leaving Italy in the same predicament that it faces now. The implementation of a parallel currency to boost the supply of money would fuel concerns that Italy is prepared to leave the euro-area.

Prospects for the EU in 2022

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Rules ◽  
Eu Law ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Eu

Significance Two of the most pressing issues will be reforms to EU fiscal rules and Poland's challenge to the primacy of EU law.

France’s recovery boosts Macron’s re-election hopes

2022 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Fiscal Rules ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
High Base ◽  
The Eu

Significance Inflation is lower than in other major EU economies and unemployment is falling, albeit from a high base, as the country approaches presidential elections in April. Impacts Macron’s steady lead in the polls will boost investor confidence ahead of the presidential elections. While Spain is calling on the EU to start treating COVID-19 like influenza, France is unlikely to embrace such thinking until after April. The EU recovery fund and more flexible EU fiscal rules will enable the next government to pursue investment-led growth beyond 2022.

France’s Macron faces important election test

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Fiscal Rules ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Working Classes ◽  
Electoral Strategies ◽  
Marine Le Pen ◽  
Tackle Climate Change ◽  
Regional Elections ◽  
The Eu

Significance Given the proximity to next year’s presidential election, President Emmanuel Macron and his main rival, National Rally (RN) leader Marine Le Pen, view the regional elections as an important opportunity to test electoral strategies and build momentum. Impacts Seeking re-election could force Macron to mute his backing for the EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI). He will likely use the economic crisis to campaign for more flexible EU fiscal rules and further EU fiscal cooperation. Macron will intensify efforts to tackle climate change, but be careful to not anger the working classes or those living in rural areas.

UK corruption scandal opens door for the opposition

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Public Support ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Reputation ◽  
Trade War ◽  
The Government ◽  
Spending Cuts ◽  
The Eu

Significance These scandals are serious for the government because they reflect poorly on dozens of Conservative MPs as well as Prime Minister Boris Johnson. In addition to undermining the government’s public support, they have also damaged Johnson’s support among party colleagues. Impacts Anger towards the government could grow in poorer regions as tax rises and spending cuts are gradually introduced. The persistence of corruption stories threatens to further damage the United Kingdom’s international reputation. Domestic pressures and ‘Brexit fatigue’ may ultimately prevent London from triggering a trade war with the EU.

Brussels attacks may lead to policy change in Europe

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Policy Change ◽  
Security Policies ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Metro Station ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Border Controls ◽  
Jihadist Terrorism ◽  
The Eu

Significance These are the first terrorist attacks on EU territory since the Paris attacks in November 2015. The attacks on Zaventem Airport and Maelbeeck metro station come just four days after Salah Abdeslam, a key suspect in the events in Paris, was arrested in Brussels. Impacts As Belgium emerges as the central HQ for jihadist terrorism in Europe, pressure on the authorities to tighten security will increase. European solidarity will be tested and new measures are to be expected. Far-right movements might thrive even more in the EU. New security policies may be implemented, including more border controls.

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