South Sudan may struggle to attract oil investment

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Government Revenue ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Price Shock ◽  
Price Shock ◽  
Almost All

Significance Crude oil is central to South Sudan’s economy, providing between 80% and 90% of government revenue and almost all export earnings. Last year’s oil price shock hit the economy hard and prompted two disbursements by the IMF under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) in November 2020 and April 2021. Impacts Net foreign direct investment (FDI) will turn positive in fiscal year (FY) 2020/21, following three years of outflows. The central bank’s weekly foreign exchange auctions will continue to reduce the gap between the official and parallel market rates. Following a contraction of around 4%, GDP is expected to grow modestly at 2-3% in FY 2021/22 and FY 2022/23.

The macroeconomic effects of increase and decrease in oil prices: evidences of asymmetric effects from India

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anver Chittangadan Sadath ◽  
Rajesh Herolli Acharya
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
Wholesale Price ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Petroleum Products ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Oil Price Shock ◽  
Price Shock

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to assess whether oil price shocks emanating from oil price increase and decrease have a different impact on the macroeconomic activity. Design/methodology/approach This study conducts the empirical analysis using structural vector auto-regressive model on Indian data for the period from 1996 to 2017. This paper uses four key macroeconomic variables, namely, real gross domestic product (GDP), the real rate of interest, real money supply, wholesale price index inflation and various linear and non-linear measures of oil price shock. Findings Empirical results confirm that oil price shock has a significant impact on various macroeconomic variables used in the study. Specifically, shocks emanating from a decline in oil price have a stronger positive impact on real GDP, whereas, a shock due to the rise in oil price has a weaker negative impact on real GDP. Impulse responses confirm that shocks due to a decline in oil prices are long-lasting compared to similar shocks due to a rise in oil prices. Therefore, this study concludes that the macroeconomic impact of oil price shock is asymmetric in India. Originality/value This paper adds the following new insights: First, this paper presents a distinct relationship between the growth rate of oil price and GDP during increasing and decreasing phases of oil price to drive home the case for this study. Second, India has adopted crucial administrative initiatives such as deregulation of the market for petroleum products and the promotion of renewable energy during the study period. Finally, previous studies have revealed specific behavioral and economic features of people in India with respect to the demand for petroleum products. In light of these factors, this paper based on Indian experience would be justified.

'Lifeline' loans to Angola will not spur reform

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Field ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Energy Projects ◽  
Oil Price Shock ◽  
Price Shock ◽  
Oil Shock ◽  
Development Goals ◽  
The Government ◽  
Congo Brazzaville

Subject Outlook for Angola's relations with its creditors. Significance On July 31 the government entered into an agreement with Japan involving a 200-million-dollar concessional loan to support energy projects. It is the latest in a series of 'lifeline' deals concluded with donors and creditors in an attempt to cushion the economic reverberations of the oil price shock, particularly its implications for meeting debt repayments and development goals. Impacts The agreement signed with Congo-Brazzaville on July 31 to jointly exploit the Lianzi oil field could reduce border tensions. If protests increase, the government may escalate its civil society clampdown, eg through peremptory arrests of activists. New diamond projects will boost production, though recent 'blood diamond' allegations will raise reputation risks for investors. Increased diamond sales (up 35% in the first quarter year-on-year) will augment state revenues, but be insufficient to absorb the oil shock.

Oil prices, policy uncertainty and asymmetries in inflation expectations

2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (2) ◽  
pp. 324-334 ◽  
Author(s):  
Khandokar Istiak ◽  
Md Rafayet Alam
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
Asymmetric Effects ◽  
Output Stabilization ◽  
Oil Price Shock ◽  
Price Shock

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the possible asymmetric response of inflation expectations to oil price and policy uncertainty shocks.Design/methodology/approachThe authors used the test of asymmetric impulse responses proposed by Kilian and Vigfusson (2011) to explore the issue of asymmetry.FindingsUnlike other studies that assume symmetric effects, this study finds asymmetric effects of oil price and policy uncertainty on inflation expectations for positive and negative shocks and for pre- and post-financial-crisis periods. In particular other things being same, a same magnitude oil price shock has greater effect on inflation expectations in post-crisis period than in pre-crisis period. Moreover, in post-crisis period a positive increasing oil price shock has greater effect on inflation expectations than a negative decreasing oil price shock.Practical implicationsThe paper concludes that FED’s greater focus on output stabilization since financial crisis has made inflation expectations less anchored and a sudden surge in oil price may quickly trigger inflation through inflation expectations.Originality/valueExploring the issue of the possible asymmetric effects of oil price and economic policy uncertainty on inflation expectations is a relatively new topic (as other studies only assumed symmetry and did not investigate the possible asymmetry in this regard).

Bangladesh economy will ride out pandemic crisis

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Speed Up ◽  
The Government ◽  
Roll Out

Significance In late May, it approved a three-month, USD200mn currency swap with Sri Lanka to help ease Colombo’s foreign exchange woes. The move underscores its growing economic strength, even as it battles the fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic. Impacts The government will step up efforts to procure more COVID-19 jabs as it tries to speed up the vaccine roll-out. Bangladesh will attract more foreign direct investment, especially from Chinese- and Japanese-based multinationals. The central bank will continue to invest reserve assets in low-risk instruments overseas.

Foreign Direct Investment

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yilmaz Akyüz
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Mergers And Acquisitions ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Productive Capacity ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Direct Contribution ◽  
High Profit

Recent years have also seen increased openness of EDEs to foreign direct investment (FDI) in search for faster growth and greater stability. However, FDI is one of the most ambiguous and least understood concepts in international economics. Common debate is confounded by several myths regarding its nature and impact. It is often portrayed as a stable, cross-border flow of capital that adds to productive capacity and meets foreign exchange shortfalls. However, the reality is far more complex. FDI does not always involve inflows of financial or real capital. Greenfield investment, unlike mergers and acquisitions, makes a direct contribution to productive capacity, but can crowd out domestic investors. FDI can induce significant instability in currency and financial markets. Its immediate contribution to balance-of-payments may be positive, but its longer-term impact is often negative because of high-profit remittances and import contents.

scholarly journals Technology-sourcing investment abroad as an enhancer of Chinese MNEs’ innovative capabilities

2015 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 243-271 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philippe Gugler ◽  
Laura Vanoli
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Citation Analysis ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Multinational Enterprises ◽  
Knowledge Diffusion ◽  
Technological Capabilities ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Chinese Mnes ◽  
Firm Knowledge ◽  
Innovative Capabilities

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to focus on Chinese firms’ innovation processes that are induced by foreign direct investment abroad. The study uses a patent and citation analysis to examine the extent to which investments abroad contribute to enhancing these firms’ innovative capabilities. More specifically, this study focusses on the role of foreign location competitiveness as an asset to provide technological capabilities to Chinese affiliates. Design/methodology/approach – Patents are good indicators of firms’ innovative capabilities. Moreover, patents allow to track the inter-firm knowledge transfer through the citations of patents on which they are based. The authors use an OECD patent database called “OECD REGPAT July 2013” that compiles patents registered with the European Patent Office (EPO) over the period from 1986 to 2013. The authors focus the analysis on patents registered by Chinese multinational enterprises’ (MNEs) based in Europe because the authors assume inter alia that innovations patented by Chinese affiliates in Europe are registered with the EPO. The sample comprises 3,010 patents involving 5,749 citations that the authors have individually examined. Findings – The findings suggest that Chinese MNEs ability to generate innovation based on their own knowledge is low, with a self-citation rate of approximately 4 percent. Patents by Chinese MNEs are largely based on foreign patents, especially from developed economies (at least 90 percent). The citation analysis also suggests that 39.2 percent of citations represent domestic firms in the local recipient country. This subgroup of citations is categorized as follows: 1.04 percent are M&A linkages, 13.8 percent are cluster linkages, and 24.36 percent are localization linkages. The remaining 60.8 percent of the total sample demonstrates that firms do not necessarily need to be collocated in foreign locations with domestic firms to exchange assets. Research limitations/implications – Patent and citation analysis considers only a part of the inter-firm knowledge diffusion. Some innovations are not patented and tacit knowledge diffusion is not observable. Moreover, the analysis focusses only on Chinese outward foreign direct investment to Europe, but a large part of knowledge is accumulated in China thanks to inward foreign direct investment. Originality/value – Many scholars have scrutinized emerging markets multinational enterprises’ strategic asset-seeking investments abroad that are designed to upgrade the companies’ technological capabilities (Cui and Jiang, 2009; Zhang and Filippov, 2009; Huang and Wang, 2013; Amighini et al., 2014; De Beule et al., 2014; Nicolas, 2014). However, few studies analyze the results of these strategies in terms of innovation output.

Neither side is ready to step back in Georgian crisis

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
National Movement ◽  
Election Victory ◽  
Political Turmoil

Significance The authorities went ahead with the arrest of Nika Melia, leader of the opposition United National Movement (UNM), on February 23 even after the prime minister resigned in protest. Georgian Dream's actions have caused concern in Western capitals that approved its election victory when the opposition cried foul. Impacts The crisis is a setback for the government's stated plan to apply for EU membership in 2024. There is growing talk in the United States about individual sanctions targeting Ivanishvili and his associates. Political turmoil will harm hopes of foreign direct investment and the imminent Anaklia port tender.

India’s vaccine diplomacy brings money and influence

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
The United States ◽  
Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Pharmaceutical Ingredients ◽  
The World

Significance Last week, its partners in the ‘Quad’ grouping -- the United States, Japan and Australia -- agreed to help increase its vaccine manufacturing and exporting capacity. Each of the Quad members is wary of China, which like India is gifting and selling coronavirus jabs around the world. Impacts India’s manufacturing sector will attract more foreign direct investment. Greater cooperation over supply chains will help strengthen India-Australia ties. Indian pharma will in the long term aim to ease dependence on imports of active pharmaceutical ingredients from China.

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