Intra-jihadist rivalry fuels violence in Lake Chad

Significance Competition between the jihadist groups remains tense and insecurity is being stoked further by intercommunal conflict over land and water resources that overstretched security forces are struggling to contain. Impacts Economic hardship will increase in the Lake Chad region amid the effects of climate change and economic slowdown due to the pandemic. Jihadist dominance in the region is almost certain to swing back and forth between ISWAP and Boko Haram. The use of the Boko Haram moniker to describe all jihadist operations poses challenges to accurate attribution of attacks.

Subject Boko Haram outlook. Significance The Nigerian Air Force announced on August 20 that it carried out “massive” bombing attacks earlier this month against Boko Haram forces regrouping around their former stronghold in the Sambisa Forest. This follows soon after the military allegedly killed Momodu Bama, second-in command to Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau. Yet despite these renewed military efforts, the Nigerian army faces two still-capable Boko Haram factions, each of which has staged multiple deadly attacks in recent months. Impacts The Islamic State-linked Boko Haram faction has emerged as the most dangerous security threat in the Lake Chad Basin in the short term. The military will struggle to differentiate between Boko Haram factions, undermining operational efficacy. Leadership turnover within the security forces will not overcome the systemic problem of under-equipped and underprepared troops. Neighbouring countries, such as Niger and Cameroon, will bolster border security amid worsening Boko Haram and other criminal threats.


Author(s):  
Sejabaledi Agnes Rankoana

Purpose The study explored the impacts of climate change on water resources, and the community-based adaptation practices adopted to ensure water security in a rural community in Limpopo Province, South Africa. Design/methodology/approach The study was conducted in Limpopo Province, South Africa. The participatory approach was used to allow community members to share their challenges of water scarcity, and the measures they have developed to cope with inconsistent water supply. Findings The study results show that the community obtains water for household consumption from the reticulation system supplied by Mutale River and the community borehole. These resources are negatively impacted by drought, change in the frequency and distribution of rainfall, and increased temperature patterns. The water levels in the river and borehole have declined, resulting in unsustainable water supply. The community-based adaptation practices facilitated by the water committee include observance of restrictions and regulations on the water resources use. Others involve securing water from neighbouring resources. Originality/value This type of community-based action in response to climate change could be used as part of rural water management strategies under climate change.


Significance His nomination to run for yet another term met large protests in major towns including N'Djamena, where fighting broke out with security forces leading to arrests. In the last three years, Chad’s security and humanitarian situations have deteriorated as Deby battles escalating jihadist violence in the Sahel and the Lake Chad region, growing discontent from diverse interest groups and pressing humanitarian needs across the country. Impacts Chad and other G5 Sahel countries will seek an extension to the G20’s debt moratorium to help improve their precarious fiscal situation. The G5 Sahel will pursue expansion, potentially to include Ivory Coast and Senegal, in a bid to boost troop strength. Aid agencies will intensify their appeal for funds to help over 12 million people in need before the onset of the rainy period in June.


Significance The protests pose the greatest threat to President Daniel Ortega since he took power in 2007. The president’s eventual withdrawal of the social security reforms that had sparked the unrest has, instead of restoring order, emboldened protesters, who are now pushing for further political concessions and have called for a mass anti-government demonstration to be held tomorrow. Impacts Businesses may postpone investment decisions until after the national dialogue, posing a risk of economic slowdown. Damage to the reputation of the security forces threatens to foster long-term resentment, undermining law enforcement. The protests may spur anti-corruption protests in other parts of the region, such as Guatemala.


Subject COVID-19 and jihadists. Significance Jihadist attacks are rising across the Sahel and Lake Chad Basin regions, as are conflict fatalities more broadly. However, the increase cannot be solely, or even primarily, attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic. The remote areas where jihadists fight are in the early stages of their respective outbreaks; much of the increased violence reflects pre-existing conflict dynamics. Many of the fatalities, meanwhile, are caused by state security forces, who may be taking advantage of the pandemic, even more than jihadists are, to target civilians with relative impunity. Impacts Sensitive talks between humanitarian aid groups and jihadists may determine the level of famine in parts of the Sahel over the short term. Relationships between governments and human rights groups and journalists will grow even tenser during COVID-19-related restrictions. Accurate information about conflict zones may become harder to obtain amid restrictions and increased government defensiveness.


Significance Sparsely populated and usually peripheral to the surrounding countries (Cameroon, Chad, Niger and Nigeria), the Lake Chad area has been affected by the spillover of the Boko Haram conflict. In recent months, international aid organisations have warned of a rising risk of a famine crisis in the region. Impacts Sporadic terrorist attacks on civilian targets will remain a risk. Returns of refugees and displaced persons will be haphazard. Investment in Lake Chad development initiatives -- such as a proposed linkage with the Congo Basin -- will lag far behind plans.


Subject Sudan's state of emergency. Significance In a series of moves since February 22, President Omar al-Bashir has declared a state of emergency and instituted an overhaul of his government. These constitute by far the most significant reaction to the anti-government protests, ongoing since last December. Impacts Security forces may escalate their use of force and intimidation against protesters. The possibility of coup attempts may grow, despite Bashir’s efforts to control the security services. Effective initiatives to address economic hardship could provide limited breathing space for efforts to find a political solution.


2017 ◽  
Vol 36 (2) ◽  
pp. 648
Author(s):  
D. A. Yunana ◽  
A. A. Shittu ◽  
S. Ayuba ◽  
E. J. Bassah ◽  
W. K. Joshua

Significance Although Deby and French President Emmanuel Macron discussed Chad’s political transition from military to civilian rule, the meeting’s emphasis was on security issues in the Sahel and the Lake Chad Basin, in Libya, and within Chad itself. Impacts Deby is investing substantial energy in foreign relations, not just with France but also with neighbouring states. If Deby and the CMT ultimately decide to prolong the transition, foreign objections will likely be fairly minimal and brief. Despite outcry from human rights groups over the security forces’ treatment of protesters in April and May, accountability is unlikely.


Significance One consequence is that insurgents are retreating into neighbouring countries. Several civilians died in Boko Haram attacks in Niger's Diffa region on November 11 and Chad declared a state of emergency on November 9 in its far-north Lake Chad region. Impacts The significance of Boko Haram's pledged allegiance to Islamic State group (ISG) is far less than other ISG affiliates. The recent Abuja bombings, while claimed by ISG-affiliated militants, resemble previous attacks and signal no tactical or resource shifts. Boko Haram's increasingly weak position in Nigeria would hamper efforts to make any such link meaningful.


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