Avalanche Risk Estimation Automat System

Author(s):  
Calin Ciufudean ◽  
Corneliu Buzduga
2001 ◽  
Vol 32 ◽  
pp. 182-186 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. A. Chernouss ◽  
Yu. Fedorenko

AbstractAvalanche risk is considered as the probability of an avalanche event that could cause certain losses. A unified approach for avalanche-risk evaluation by statistical simulation is suggested. A chain of models, describing snow deposition, transformation, stability, avalanche dynamics and interaction with an obstacle, is used within such an approach. Each of the models evaluates a given situation in a deterministic manner, yielding a unique result value. Output data of each model can be the input for the next model in the chain. Uncertainty of input data is described in a probabilistic manner. Using the chain of the deterministic models and simulating the input data according to appropriate probability distributions with the Monte Carlo method, risk evaluations are obtained as the ratio of a number of certain types of outcome to the total number of tests. All kinds of information on weather, snow and avalanches can be used within this scheme. The simulation process can be started at any stage of the modelling. In this study it was started from the snow-cover stability simulation. Application of the statistical simulation in such a way gives an opportunity to reflect uncertainty of the initial data in the results obtained. The suggested scheme was used for producing a computer-assisted workplace for avalanche forecasting, “LAVINA”, which has been exploited at the Centre of Avalanche Safety of “Apatit”, Kirovsk, Russia, since the early 1990s. It is an integrated system that permits spatial and temporal estimations of snow stability and avalanche dynamics to be made. Assessments of the validity of the risk estimation made with LAVINA are presented.


2008 ◽  
Vol 49 ◽  
pp. 205-209 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuri Seliverstov ◽  
Tatiana Glazovskaya ◽  
Alexander Shnyparkov ◽  
Yana Vilchek ◽  
Ksenia Sergeeva ◽  
...  

AbstractThe term ‘risk’ can be defined as the probability of unfavourable consequences or negative effects. Risk can be expressed by means of various indices, such as collective or social risk (possible number of dead), individual risk (probability of a person’s death within a certain territory during 1 year), probability of losses, etc. This paper is a case study of the small-scale assessment and mapping of individual avalanche risk focused on the two regions of Russia with the highest levels of avalanche activity: the northern Caucasus and the mountainous parts of Sakhalin island. The basic indices applied for individual avalanche risk estimation are: recurrence interval of avalanches (avalanche frequency), percentage of the whole investigated territory that is occupied by avalanche-prone areas, duration of avalanche danger period, probability of a person’s stay in an avalanche-prone area during 1 day (24 hours) and during 1 year, total population of the area and its density. The results of individual avalanche risk assessment, undertaken for the territory of Russia as a whole, show that its values generally do not exceed the admissible level (from 1×10–6 to 1×10–4). However, some areas of the northern Caucasus, including famous alpine skiing resorts (Krasnaya Poliana, Dombai, the Mount Elbrus region, etc.), and of Sakhalin, including the environs of towns (Kholmsk, Nevel’sk) and other smaller human settlements, are characterized by an unacceptable level of risk. In the aggregate, areas with an unacceptable (>1×10–4) level of individual avalanche risk comprise about 7% of the whole avalanche-prone territory of the northern Caucasus, those with an admissible level comprise 52% and those with an acceptable level (<1×10–6) 41%. The corresponding values for Sakhalin are 0.1%, 14.8% and 85.1%.


1994 ◽  
Vol 50 (5) ◽  
pp. 69-75 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sangit Chatterjee ◽  
William E. Jacques
Keyword(s):  

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document