A Hybrid Bayesian Deep Learning Model for Remaining Useful Life Prognostics and Uncertainty Quantification

Author(s):  
Dengshan Huang ◽  
Rui Bai ◽  
Shuai Zhao ◽  
Pengfei Wen ◽  
Jiawei He ◽  
...  
Electronics ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 39
Author(s):  
Zhiyuan Xie ◽  
Shichang Du ◽  
Jun Lv ◽  
Yafei Deng ◽  
Shiyao Jia

Remaining Useful Life (RUL) prediction is significant in indicating the health status of the sophisticated equipment, and it requires historical data because of its complexity. The number and complexity of such environmental parameters as vibration and temperature can cause non-linear states of data, making prediction tremendously difficult. Conventional machine learning models such as support vector machine (SVM), random forest, and back propagation neural network (BPNN), however, have limited capacity to predict accurately. In this paper, a two-phase deep-learning-model attention-convolutional forget-gate recurrent network (AM-ConvFGRNET) for RUL prediction is proposed. The first phase, forget-gate convolutional recurrent network (ConvFGRNET) is proposed based on a one-dimensional analog long short-term memory (LSTM), which removes all the gates except the forget gate and uses chrono-initialized biases. The second phase is the attention mechanism, which ensures the model to extract more specific features for generating an output, compensating the drawbacks of the FGRNET that it is a black box model and improving the interpretability. The performance and effectiveness of AM-ConvFGRNET for RUL prediction is validated by comparing it with other machine learning methods and deep learning methods on the Commercial Modular Aero-Propulsion System Simulation (C-MAPSS) dataset and a dataset of ball screw experiment.


Sensors ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (22) ◽  
pp. 6626
Author(s):  
Chang Woo Hong ◽  
Changmin Lee ◽  
Kwangsuk Lee ◽  
Min-Seung Ko ◽  
Dae Eun Kim ◽  
...  

This study prognoses the remaining useful life of a turbofan engine using a deep learning model, which is essential for the health management of an engine. The proposed deep learning model affords a significantly improved accuracy by organizing networks with a one-dimensional convolutional neural network, long short-term memory, and bidirectional long short-term memory. In particular, this paper investigates two practical and crucial issues in applying the deep learning model for system prognosis. The first is the requirement of numerous sensors for different components, i.e., the curse of dimensionality. Second, the deep neural network cannot identify the problematic component of the turbofan engine due to its “black box” property. This study thus employs dimensionality reduction and Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) techniques. Dimensionality reduction in the model reduces the complexity and prevents overfitting, while maintaining high accuracy. SHAP analyzes and visualizes the black box to identify the sensors. The experimental results demonstrate the high accuracy and efficiency of the proposed model with dimensionality reduction and show that SHAP enhances the explainability in a conventional deep learning model for system prognosis.


2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Hai-Kun Wang ◽  
Yi Cheng ◽  
Ke Song

The remaining useful life estimation is a key technology in prognostics and health management (PHM) systems for a new generation of aircraft engines. With the increase in massive monitoring data, it brings new opportunities to improve the prediction from the perspective of deep learning. Therefore, we propose a novel joint deep learning architecture that is composed of two main parts: the transformer encoder, which uses scaled dot-product attention to extract dependencies across distances in time series, and the temporal convolution neural network (TCNN), which is constructed to fix the insensitivity of the self-attention mechanism to local features. Both parts are jointly trained within a regression module, which implies that the proposed approach differs from traditional ensemble learning models. It is applied on the Commercial Modular Aero-Propulsion System Simulation (C-MAPSS) dataset from the Prognostics Center of Excellence at NASA Ames, and satisfactory results are obtained, especially under complex working conditions.


2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 627-640 ◽  
Author(s):  
Avinash Chandra Pandey ◽  
Dharmveer Singh Rajpoot

Background: Sentiment analysis is a contextual mining of text which determines viewpoint of users with respect to some sentimental topics commonly present at social networking websites. Twitter is one of the social sites where people express their opinion about any topic in the form of tweets. These tweets can be examined using various sentiment classification methods to find the opinion of users. Traditional sentiment analysis methods use manually extracted features for opinion classification. The manual feature extraction process is a complicated task since it requires predefined sentiment lexicons. On the other hand, deep learning methods automatically extract relevant features from data hence; they provide better performance and richer representation competency than the traditional methods. Objective: The main aim of this paper is to enhance the sentiment classification accuracy and to reduce the computational cost. Method: To achieve the objective, a hybrid deep learning model, based on convolution neural network and bi-directional long-short term memory neural network has been introduced. Results: The proposed sentiment classification method achieves the highest accuracy for the most of the datasets. Further, from the statistical analysis efficacy of the proposed method has been validated. Conclusion: Sentiment classification accuracy can be improved by creating veracious hybrid models. Moreover, performance can also be enhanced by tuning the hyper parameters of deep leaning models.


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