scholarly journals Indirect effects of the covid-19 pandemic on childhood infection in England: population based observational study

BMJ ◽  
2022 ◽  
pp. e067519 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seilesh Kadambari ◽  
Raphael Goldacre ◽  
Eva Morris ◽  
Michael J Goldacre ◽  
Andrew J Pollard

AbstractObjectiveTo assess the impact of the covid-19 pandemic on hospital admission rates and mortality outcomes for childhood respiratory infections, severe invasive infections, and vaccine preventable disease in England.DesignPopulation based observational study of 19 common childhood respiratory, severe invasive, and vaccine preventable infections, comparing hospital admission rates and mortality outcomes before and after the onset of the pandemic in England.SettingHospital admission data from every NHS hospital in England from 1 March 2017 to 30 June 2021 with record linkage to national mortality data.PopulationChildren aged 0-14 years admitted to an NHS hospital with a selected childhood infection from 1 March 2017 to 30 June 2021.Main outcome measuresFor each infection, numbers of hospital admissions every month from 1 March 2017 to 30 June 2021, percentage changes in the number of hospital admissions before and after 1 March 2020, and adjusted odds ratios to compare 60 day case fatality outcomes before and after 1 March 2020.ResultsAfter 1 March 2020, substantial and sustained reductions in hospital admissions were found for all but one of the 19 infective conditions studied. Among the respiratory infections, the greatest percentage reductions were for influenza (mean annual number admitted between 1 March 2017 and 29 February 2020 was 5379 and number of children admitted from 1 March 2020 to 28 February 2021 was 304, 94% reduction, 95% confidence interval 89% to 97%), and bronchiolitis (from 51 655 to 9423, 82% reduction, 95% confidence interval 79% to 84%). Among the severe invasive infections, the greatest reduction was for meningitis (50% reduction, 47% to 52%). For the vaccine preventable infections, reductions ranged from 53% (32% to 68%) for mumps to 90% (80% to 95%) for measles. Reductions were seen across all demographic subgroups and in children with underlying comorbidities. Corresponding decreases were also found for the absolute numbers of 60 day case fatalities, although the proportion of children admitted for pneumonia who died within 60 days increased (age-sex adjusted odds ratio 1.71, 95% confidence interval 1.43 to 2.05). More recent data indicate that some respiratory infections increased to higher levels than usual after May 2021.ConclusionsDuring the covid-19 pandemic, a range of behavioural changes (adoption of non-pharmacological interventions) and societal strategies (school closures, lockdowns, and restricted travel) were used to reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2, which also reduced admissions for common and severe childhood infections. Continued monitoring of these infections is required as social restrictions evolve.

BMJ ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. m4571 ◽  
Author(s):  
Caroline Fyfe ◽  
Lucy Telfar ◽  
Barnard ◽  
Philippa Howden-Chapman ◽  
Jeroen Douwes

Abstract Objectives To investigate whether retrofitting insulation into homes can reduce cold associated hospital admission rates among residents and to identify whether the effect varies between different groups within the population and by type of insulation. Design A quasi-experimental retrospective cohort study using linked datasets to evaluate a national intervention programme. Participants 994 317 residents of 204 405 houses who received an insulation subsidy through the Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority Warm-up New Zealand: Heat Smart retrofit programme between July 2009 and June 2014. Main outcome measure A difference-in-difference approach was used to compare the change in hospital admissions of the study population post-insulation with the change in hospital admissions of the control population that did not receive the intervention over the same two timeframes. Relative rate ratios were used to compare the two groups. Results 234 873 hospital admissions occurred during the study period. Hospital admission rates after the intervention increased in the intervention and control groups for all population categories and conditions with the exception of acute hospital admissions among Pacific Peoples (rate ratio 0.94, 95% confidence interval 0.90 to 0.98), asthma (0.92, 0.86 to 0.99), cardiovascular disease (0.90, 0.88 to 0.93), and ischaemic heart disease for adults older than 65 years (0.79, 0.74 to 0.84). Post-intervention increases were, however, significantly lower (11%) in the intervention group compared with the control group (relative rate ratio 0.89, 95% confidence interval 0.88 to 0.90), representing 9.26 (95% confidence interval 9.05 to 9.47) fewer hospital admissions per 1000 in the intervention population. Effects were more pronounced for respiratory disease (0.85, 0.81 to 0.90), asthma in all age groups (0.80, 0.70 to 0.90), and ischaemic heart disease in those older than 65 years (0.75, 0.66 to 0.83). Conclusion This study showed that a national home insulation intervention was associated with reduced hospital admissions, supporting previous research, which found an improvement in self-reported health.


BMJ ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. m4075
Author(s):  
Victoria Coathup ◽  
Elaine Boyle ◽  
Claire Carson ◽  
Samantha Johnson ◽  
Jennifer J Kurinzcuk ◽  
...  

AbstractObjectiveTo examine the association between gestational age at birth and hospital admissions to age 10 years and how admission rates change throughout childhood.DesignPopulation based, record linkage, cohort study in England.SettingNHS hospitals in England, United Kingdom.Participants1 018 136 live, singleton births in NHS hospitals in England between January 2005 and December 2006.Main outcome measuresPrimary outcome was all inpatient hospital admissions from birth to age 10, death, or study end (March 2015); secondary outcome was the main cause of admission, which was defined as the World Health Organization’s first international classification of diseases, version 10 (ICD-10) code within each hospital admission record.Results1 315 338 admissions occurred between 1 January 2005 and 31 March 2015, and 831 729 (63%) were emergency admissions. 525 039 (52%) of 1 018 136 children were admitted to hospital at least once during the study period. Hospital admissions during childhood were strongly associated with gestational age at birth (<28, 28-29, 30-31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, and 42 weeks). In comparison with children born at full term (40 weeks’ gestation), those born extremely preterm (<28 weeks) had the highest rate of hospital admission throughout childhood (adjusted rate ratio 4.92, 95% confidence interval 4.58 to 5.30). Even children born at 38 weeks had a higher rate of hospital admission throughout childhood (1.19, 1.16 to 1.22). The association between gestational age and hospital admission decreased with increasing age (interaction P<0.001). Children born earlier than 28 weeks had an adjusted rate ratio of 6.34 (95% confidence interval 5.80 to 6.85) at age less than 1 year, declining to 3.28 (2.82 to 3.82) at ages 7-10, in comparison with those born full term; whereas in children born at 38 weeks, the adjusted rate ratios were 1.29 (1.27 to 1.31) and 1.16 (1.13 to 1.19), during infancy and ages 7-10, respectively. Infection was the main cause of excess hospital admissions at all ages, but particularly during infancy. Respiratory and gastrointestinal conditions also accounted for a large proportion of admissions during the first two years of life.ConclusionsThe association between gestational age and hospital admission rates decreased with age, but an excess risk remained throughout childhood, even among children born at 38 and 39 weeks of gestation. Strategies aimed at the prevention and management of childhood infections should target children born preterm and those born a few weeks early.


Thorax ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. thoraxjnl-2020-215422
Author(s):  
Annette Evans ◽  
Daniel Farewell ◽  
Joanne Demmler ◽  
Amrita Bandyopadhyay ◽  
Colin Victor Eric Powell ◽  
...  

BackgroundThere is conflicting research about the association between asthma and poor educational attainment that may be due to asthma definitions. Our study creates seven categories of current chronic and acute asthma to investigate if there is an association for poorer educational attainment at age 6–7 years, and the role of respiratory infections and school absence.MethodsThis study used a population-based electronic cross-sectional birth cohort 1998–2005, in Wales, UK, using health and education administrative datasets. Current asthma or wheeze categories were developed using clinical management guidelines in general practice (GP) data, acute asthma was inpatient hospital admissions and respiratory infections were the count of GP visits, from birth to age 6–7 years. We used multilevel logistic regression grouped by schools to ascertain if asthma or wheeze was associated with not attaining the expected level in teacher assessment at Key Stage 1 (KS1) adjusting for sociodemographics, perinatal, other respiratory illness and school characteristics. We tested if absence from school was a mediator in this relationship using the difference method.ResultsThere were 85 906 children in this population representative cohort with 7-year follow-up. In adjusted multilevel logistic regression, only asthma inpatient hospital admission was associated with increased risk for not attaining the expected level at KS1 (adjusted OR 1.14 95% CI (1.02 to 1.27)). Lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) GP contacts remained an independent predictor for not attaining the expected level of education. Absence from school was a potential mediator of the association between hospital admission and educational attainment.ConclusionsClinicians and educators need to be aware that children who have inpatient hospital admissions for asthma or wheeze, or repeated LRTI, may require additional educational support for their educational outcomes.


PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (9) ◽  
pp. e0257341
Author(s):  
Victoria Coathup ◽  
Claire Carson ◽  
Jennifer J. Kurinczuk ◽  
Alison J. Macfarlane ◽  
Elaine Boyle ◽  
...  

Background Children born preterm (<37 completed weeks’ gestation) have a higher risk of infection-related morbidity than those born at term. However, few large, population-based studies have investigated the risk of infection in childhood across the full spectrum of gestational age. The objectives of this study were to explore the association between gestational age at birth and infection-related hospital admissions up to the age of 10 years, how infection-related hospital admission rates change throughout childhood, and whether being born small for gestational age (SGA) modifies this relationship. Methods and findings Using a population-based, record-linkage cohort study design, birth registrations, birth notifications and hospital admissions were linked using a deterministic algorithm. The study population included all live, singleton births occurring in NHS hospitals in England from January 2005 to December 2006 (n = 1,018,136). The primary outcome was all infection-related inpatient hospital admissions from birth to 10 years of age, death or study end (March 2015). The secondary outcome was the type of infection-related hospital admission, grouped into broad categories. Generalised estimating equations were used to estimate adjusted rate ratios (aRRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for each gestational age category (<28, 28–29, 30–31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41 and 42 weeks) and the models were repeated by age at admission (<1, 1–2, 3–4, 5–6, and 7–10 years). An interaction term was included in the model to test whether SGA status modified the relationship between gestational age and infection-related hospital admissions. Gestational age was strongly associated with rates of infection-related hospital admissions throughout childhood. Whilst the relationship attenuated over time, at 7–10 years of age those born before 40 weeks gestation were still significantly higher in comparison to those born at 40 weeks. Children born <28 weeks had an aRR of 6.53 (5.91–7.22) during infancy, declining to 3.16 (2.50–3.99) at ages 7–10 years, in comparison to those born at 40 weeks; whilst in children born at 38 weeks, the aRRs were 1·24 (1.21–1.27) and 1·18 (1.13–1.23), during infancy and aged 7–10 years, respectively. SGA status modified the effect of gestational age (interaction P<0.0001), with the highest rate among the children born at <28 weeks and SGA. Finally, study findings indicated that the associations with gestational age varied by subgroup of infection. Whilst upper respiratory tract infections were the most common type of infection experienced by children in this cohort, lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) (<28 weeks, aRR = 10.61(9.55–11.79)) and invasive bacterial infections (<28 weeks, aRR = 6.02 (4.56–7.95)) were the most strongly associated with gestational age at birth. Of LRTIs experienced, bronchiolitis (<28 weeks, aRR = 11.86 (10.20–13.80)), and pneumonia (<28 weeks, aRR = 9.49 (7.95–11.32)) were the most common causes. Conclusions Gestational age at birth was strongly associated with rates of infection-related hospital admissions during childhood and even children born a few weeks early remained at higher risk at 7–10 years of age. There was variation between clinical subgroups in the strength of relationships with gestational age. Effective infection prevention strategies should include focus on reducing the number and severity of LRTIs during early childhood.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kennedy Ng ◽  
Gloria Yao Chi Leung ◽  
Angeline Jie-Yin Tey ◽  
Jia Quan Chaung ◽  
Si Min Lee ◽  
...  

Abstract Background The older persons consume disproportionately more healthcare resources than younger persons. Tri-Generational HomeCare (TriGen), a service-learning program, aimed to reduce hospital admission rates amongst older patients with frequent admissions. The authors evaluated the educational and patient outcomes of TriGen. Methods Teams consisting of healthcare undergraduates and lay volunteers – secondary school (SS) students - performed fortnightly home visits to patients over 6 months. Self-administered scales were used to evaluate the educational outcomes. Patients’ satisfaction and clinical outcomes were also assessed. Results 226 healthcare undergraduates and 359 SS students participated in the program from 2015 to 2018. Response rates were 80.1% and 62.4% respectively. 106 patients participated in TriGen. There was a statistically significant increase in Kogan’s Attitudes towards Old Persons scores pre- and post-intervention for healthcare undergraduates and SS students with a mean increase of 12.8 (95%CI: 9.5 – 16.2, p < 0.001) and 8.3 (95%CI: 6.2 – 10.3, p < 0.001) respectively. There was a statistically significant increase in Palmore FAQ score pre- and post-intervention for SS students. Most volunteers reported that TriGen was beneficial across all nine domains assessed. There was a statistically significant decrease in hospital admission rates (p = 0.006) and emergency department visits (p = 0.004) during the 6-month period before and after the program. 51 patients answered the patient feedback survey. Of this, more than 80% reported feeling less lonely and happier. Conclusion TriGen, a student-initiated, longitudinal, inter-generational service-learning program consisting of lay students and healthcare undergraduates can reduce ageism, develop soft skills, inculcate values amongst lay volunteers (SS students) and healthcare undergraduates. In addition, TriGen potentially reduces hospital admissions and emergency department visits, and loneliness amongst frequently admitted older patients.


BMJ ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. n2244
Author(s):  
Julia Hippisley-Cox ◽  
Carol AC Coupland ◽  
Nisha Mehta ◽  
Ruth H Keogh ◽  
Karla Diaz-Ordaz ◽  
...  

Abstract Objectives To derive and validate risk prediction algorithms to estimate the risk of covid-19 related mortality and hospital admission in UK adults after one or two doses of covid-19 vaccination. Design Prospective, population based cohort study using the QResearch database linked to data on covid-19 vaccination, SARS-CoV-2 results, hospital admissions, systemic anticancer treatment, radiotherapy, and the national death and cancer registries. Settings Adults aged 19-100 years with one or two doses of covid-19 vaccination between 8 December 2020 and 15 June 2021. Main outcome measures Primary outcome was covid-19 related death. Secondary outcome was covid-19 related hospital admission. Outcomes were assessed from 14 days after each vaccination dose. Models were fitted in the derivation cohort to derive risk equations using a range of predictor variables. Performance was evaluated in a separate validation cohort of general practices. Results Of 6 952 440 vaccinated patients in the derivation cohort, 5 150 310 (74.1%) had two vaccine doses. Of 2031 covid-19 deaths and 1929 covid-19 hospital admissions, 81 deaths (4.0%) and 71 admissions (3.7%) occurred 14 days or more after the second vaccine dose. The risk algorithms included age, sex, ethnic origin, deprivation, body mass index, a range of comorbidities, and SARS-CoV-2 infection rate. Incidence of covid-19 mortality increased with age and deprivation, male sex, and Indian and Pakistani ethnic origin. Cause specific hazard ratios were highest for patients with Down’s syndrome (12.7-fold increase), kidney transplantation (8.1-fold), sickle cell disease (7.7-fold), care home residency (4.1-fold), chemotherapy (4.3-fold), HIV/AIDS (3.3-fold), liver cirrhosis (3.0-fold), neurological conditions (2.6-fold), recent bone marrow transplantation or a solid organ transplantation ever (2.5-fold), dementia (2.2-fold), and Parkinson’s disease (2.2-fold). Other conditions with increased risk (ranging from 1.2-fold to 2.0-fold increases) included chronic kidney disease, blood cancer, epilepsy, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, coronary heart disease, stroke, atrial fibrillation, heart failure, thromboembolism, peripheral vascular disease, and type 2 diabetes. A similar pattern of associations was seen for covid-19 related hospital admissions. No evidence indicated that associations differed after the second dose, although absolute risks were reduced. The risk algorithm explained 74.1% (95% confidence interval 71.1% to 77.0%) of the variation in time to covid-19 death in the validation cohort. Discrimination was high, with a D statistic of 3.46 (95% confidence interval 3.19 to 3.73) and C statistic of 92.5. Performance was similar after each vaccine dose. In the top 5% of patients with the highest predicted covid-19 mortality risk, sensitivity for identifying covid-19 deaths within 70 days was 78.7%. Conclusion This population based risk algorithm performed well showing high levels of discrimination for identifying those patients at highest risk of covid-19 related death and hospital admission after vaccination.


2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S825-S826
Author(s):  
Thomas Lodise ◽  
Teena Chopra ◽  
Brian Nathanson ◽  
Katherine Sulham

Abstract Background There is an increase in hospital admissions for cUTI in the US despite apparent reductions in the severity of admissions. However, there are scant data on cUTI hospital admission rates from the emergency department (ED) stratified by age, infection severity, and presence of comorbidities. This study described US hospitalization patterns among adults who present to the ED with a cUTI. We sought to quantify the proportion of admissions that were potentially avoidable based on presence of sepsis and associated symtpoms as well as Charlston Comorbidity Index (CCI) scores. Methods A retrospective multi-center study using data from the Premier Healthcare Database (2013-18) was performed. Inclusion criteria: (1) age ≥ 18 years, (2) primary cUTI ED/inpatient discharge diagnosis, (3) positive blood or urine culture between index ED service days -5 to +2. Transfers from acute care facilities were excluded. Based on ICD-9/10 diagnosis codes present on admission, incidence of hospital admissions were stratified by age (≥ 65 years vs. &lt; 65 years), presence of sepsis (S), sepsis symptoms but no sepsis codes (SS) (e.g., fever, tachycardia, tachypnea, leukocytosis, etc.), and CCI. Results 187,789 patients met inclusion criteria. The mean (SD) age was 59.7 (21.9), 40.4% were male, 29.4% had sepsis, 16.7% had at least 1 SS symptom (but no S), and 53.9% had no evidence of S or SS. The median [IQR] CCI was 1 [0, 3]. 119,668 out of 187,789 (63.7%) were admitted to hospital. Among inpatients, median [IQR] length of stay (LOS) and total costs were 5 [3, 7] days and $7,956 [$4,834, $13,960] USD. Incidence of hospital admissions by age, presence of S/SS, and CCI score are shown in the Table. 18.9% of admissions (22,644/119,668) occurred in patients with no S/SS and a CCI ≤ 2. Their median [IQR] LOS and total costs were 3 [2, 5] days and $5,575 [$3,607, $9,133]. Incidence of Hospital Admission by Age, Charlson comorbidity index (CCI), Presence of Sepsis (S), and Presence of Sepsis Symptoms (SS) Conclusion Nearly 1 in 5 cUTI hospital admissions may be avoidable. Given the resources associated with the management of inpatients with cUTIs, these findings highlight the critical need for healthcare systems to develop well-defined criteria for hospital admission based on presence of comorbid conditions and infection severity. Preventing avoidable hospital admissions has the potential to save the healthcare system substantial costs. Disclosures Thomas Lodise, PharmD, PhD, Paratek Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Consultant) Teena Chopra, MD, MPH, Spero Therapeutics (Consultant, Advisor or Review Panel member) Brian Nathanson, PhD, Spero Therapeutics (Independent Contractor) Katherine Sulham, MPH, Spero Therapeutics (Independent Contractor)


2021 ◽  
pp. 135581962110127
Author(s):  
Irina Lut ◽  
Kate Lewis ◽  
Linda Wijlaars ◽  
Ruth Gilbert ◽  
Tiffany Fitzpatrick ◽  
...  

Objectives To demonstrate the challenges of interpreting cross-country comparisons of paediatric asthma hospital admission rates as an indicator of primary care quality. Methods We used hospital administrative data from >10 million children aged 6–15 years, resident in Austria, England, Finland, Iceland, Ontario (Canada), Sweden or Victoria (Australia) between 2008 and 2015. Asthma hospital admission and emergency department (ED) attendance rates were compared between countries using Poisson regression models, adjusted for age and sex. Results Hospital admission rates for asthma per 1000 child-years varied eight-fold across jurisdictions. Admission rates were 3.5 times higher when admissions with asthma recorded as any diagnosis were considered, compared with admissions with asthma as the primary diagnosis. Iceland had the lowest asthma admission rates; however, when ED attendance rates were considered, Sweden had the lowest rate of asthma hospital contacts. Conclusions The large variations in childhood hospital admission rates for asthma based on the whole child population reflect differing definitions, admission thresholds and underlying disease prevalence rather than primary care quality. Asthma hospital admissions among children diagnosed with asthma is a more meaningful indicator for inter-country comparisons of primary care quality.


2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nhat Thanh Hoang Le ◽  
Nhan Thi Ho ◽  
Bryan Grenfell ◽  
Stephen Baker ◽  
Ronald B. Geskus

Abstract Background Infection with measles virus (MeV) causes immunosuppression and increased susceptibility to other infectious diseases. Only few studies reported a duration of immunosuppression, with varying results. We investigated the effect of immunosuppression on the incidence of hospital admissions for infectious diseases in Vietnamese children. Methods We used retrospective data (2005 to 2015; N = 4419) from the two pediatric hospitals in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. We compared the age-specific incidence of hospital admission for infectious diseases before and after hospitalization for measles. We fitted a Poisson regression model that included gender, current age, and time since measles to obtain a multiplicative effect measure. Estimates were transformed to the additive scale. Results We observed two phases in the incidence of hospital admission after measles. The first phase started with a fourfold increased rate of admissions during the first month after measles, dropping to a level quite comparable to children of the same age before measles. In the second phase, lasting until at least 6 years after measles, the admission rate decreased further, with values up to 20 times lower than in children of the same age before measles. However, on the additive scale the effect size in the second phase was much smaller than in the first phase. Conclusion The first phase highlights the public health benefits of measles vaccination by preventing measles and immune amnesia. The beneficial second phase is interesting, but its strength strongly depends on the scale. It suggests a complicated interaction between MeV infection and the host immunity.


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