THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC AND IMPLICATIONS FOR MONETARY POLICY IN NIGERIA: A SIMULATION STUDY

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-28
Author(s):  
SAMUEL O. OLOFIN ◽  
ADEBAYO M. ADEBIYI ◽  
AFEES A. SALISU ◽  
OLUSANYA E. OLUBUSOYE ◽  
ADENIYI O. ADENUGA
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Simulation Study ◽  
Economic Effect ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Relative Price ◽  
Price Stability ◽  
Policy Response ◽  
Drastic Reduction

This study complements the emerging literature on the COVID-19 pandemic and provides direction, in the case of Nigeria, for targeting monetary policy response to mitigate the pandemic’s economic consequences. We simulate three scenarios: (i) do-nothing; (ii) reduce MPR gradually and (iii) reduce MPR drastically; amidst falling oil prices. The do-nothing scenario, although inflationary, would produce a marginal appreciation of the Naira/USD exchange rate. Gradual or drastic reduction of MPR would deliver relative price stability, but will undermine exchange rate stability and deplete external reserves. MPR should optimally not be reduced below 12% in response to the economic effect of the pandemic.

scholarly journals Albania's Monetary Policy and the Basic Indicators that Effect the Economic Growth

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 51
Author(s):  
Bernard Balla
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Full Employment ◽  
Price Stability ◽  
Macroeconomic Policies ◽  
Consumer Prices

Macroeconomic policies aim to stabilize the economy by achieving their goal of price stability, full employment and economic growth. Price stability is the responsibility of macroeconomic policies that are developed to maintain a low inflation rate, contribute to the solidity of the domestic product and maintain an exchange rate that can be predictable. The purpose of this paper is to analyze Albania's monetary policy by highlighting the main indicators that can be used as a measurement of the efficiency of this policy in the economic development. The literature review shows that there are many attitudes regarding the factors that need to be taken into consideration when analyzing monetary policies, including the elements of fiscal policies. In the Albanian economy, the prices and the level of inflation are the most important aspects. The Bank of Albania uses the inflation targeting regime, considering that the main indicator of inflationary pressures in the economy is the deviation of inflation forecasted in the medium term by its target level. In numerical terms, the bank intends to maintain its annual growth in consumer prices at the level of 3%. According to the latest reports published by the Bank of Albania in 2019, monetary policy continues to contribute positively to a financial environment with a low interest rate and an annual inflation rate of 2%. Although the inflation rate hit the lowest value of 1.8 % in 2018, a balanced rate was achieved through the reduction of interest rates and risk premiums in financial markets and, more recently, through the tightening of the exchange rate. These monetary conditions are appropriate to support the growth of domestic demand and the strengthening of inflationary pressures.

Monetary Policy and Oil Prices

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 1850232
Author(s):  
Mehdi S. Monadjemi
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Trade Shocks ◽  
The Exchange Rate

Because of volatility, commodity prices are excluded from the CPI when inflation targeting is exercised. Rising commodity prices contribute to inflation but central banks show no reaction since the CPI does not register rise in prices. Frankel (2006) argues that monetary policy should consider the price of important export commodities such as oil, in oil exporting countries. He maintains that by doing so, central banks are able to benefit from the fluctuations of the exchange rate in the presence of a negative international trade shocks. Central banks cannot benefit from the fluctuation of the exchange rate if inflation targeting is the strategy for conducting monetary policy.

Capital Control and Monetary Policy in Asian Emerging Market Economies

2018 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 111-134
Author(s):  
Yongseung Jung ◽  
Soyoung Kim ◽  
Doo Yong Yang
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Labor Market ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Elasticity Of Substitution ◽  
Price Stability ◽  
Emerging Market Economies ◽  
Capital Control

This paper explores two policy options in emerging market economies (EMEs) to cope with volatile capital flows due to external monetary policy shocks; capital control policy and choice of exchange rate regime. Both tools reinforce each other when a foreign exchange risk premium shock hits the economy. A contractionary U.S. monetary policy shock has significant real effects in EMEs. Conventional wisdom tells us that a free floating exchange rate with inflation targeting is better when a country faces foreign shocks. However, we show that a flexible exchange rate with less capital controls is not the best option in EMEs based on vector autoregression analysis. Moreover, we set up a small open economy new Keynesian model with real wage and price rigidities. It shows that the small economy with labor market frictions is more vulnerable to exogenous shocks such as a foreign exchange rate shock under a fixed exchange rate regime than under a flexible exchange regime. We show that maintaining price stability is not desirable when there are substantial frictions in the labor market and the intratemporal elasticity of substitution is high. Finally, the model shows that the welfare cost difference between a policy of maintaining purchasing power and a policy aimed at price stability reverses as the intratemporal elasticity of substitution between home and foreign goods increases.

Exchange Rate Pass-Through: A Case Study of a Small Open Economy

2007 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 1850112 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olajide Oladipo
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Production Costs ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Relative Price ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Exchange Rate Pass Through ◽  
Future Path

The exchange rate pass-through for Nigeria imports is estimated by applying an econometric procedure to sectoral data which avoids the pit-falls in previous studies. We use the mark-up approach, which implies setting export prices as a mark-up on production costs. So, the price facing importers is the exchange rate adjusted production costs where mark-up depends on the competitive pressures in the import's market and the nominal exchange rate. Our results indicate incomplete pass-through at varying degrees across sectors, which implies that the foreign exporters passed on only part of the increase in their costs of production to import prices. Also, it reveals that the effort of the Nigerian government in encouraging companies to use local inputs where possible instead of relying on imported intermediate inputs is gradually yielding positive results. Important policy implications that follow from our results of incomplete pass-through to domestic prices could influence CBN forecasts of future path of inflation, a key element in the conduct of monetary policy. Indeed, the successful implementation of monetary policy presupposes that CBN has not only a good understanding of inflation dynamics but is also relatively successful at predicting the future path of inflation. Also, our results imply that the exchange rate policy may be a blunt instrument when used to restore external balance since relative price adjustments will be limited. Furthermore, the incomplete pass-through suggests that exchange rate changes are likely to lead to smaller real effects on the economy through lower changes in both the terms of trade and import volumes and finally, the extent of inflation (deflation) effects of exchange rate depreciation (appreciation) operating through changes in the prices of imported goods will be moderated.

scholarly journals Role of Oil Prices in Exchange Rate Devaluation: Risks of the Russian Ruble and Other Currencies

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 76-81
Author(s):  
V. Yu. Didenko ◽  
N. I. Morozko ◽  
N. I. Morozko
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
The Exchange Rate

Subject and topic. Currently, the decrease in payments on foreign debts and a decrease in imports have an impact on the demand in the foreign exchange market. As a result, a situation has arisen due to the actions of the Bank of Russia, caused by threats of sanctions that provoked the absence of excessive demand and adequate supply in the foreign exchange market and led to a decrease in ruble exchange rate fl uctuations due to oil price movements.The subject of research is to determine the role of oil prices in the formation of monetary policy, which can be a key driver of economic growth.Objective. Identifi cation of exchange rate management practices with the search for the relationship between the current account of the balance of payments and the volatility of the national currency exchange rate.Research methods, the main provisions. Methods used grouping, comparing and summarizing economic indicators to study the characteristics and trends of the monetary policy of China, South Korea and Latin American countries.A critical analysis of the various points of view of leading scientists on the negative or positive impact of the exchange rate on the development of the economy was carried out. At the same time, it is interesting to analyze the views of individual economists that the dependence of the ruble exchange rate on oil prices has recently largely decreased.The main results of the study. Determination of the theoretical relationship between the price of oil and the exchange rate, based on the shock component, either in oil prices or in the exchange rate, with testing the response of the economic variable to this shock.Main conclusions. It was concluded that in the conditions of the economic situation of the last decade, the main problem of export-oriented and import-oriented countries is the imbalance of the current account of the balance of payments, as well as its relationship, primarily with the prices of export goods.

Oil Prices and the Economy

1986 ◽  
Vol 116 ◽  
pp. 38-44 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen Hall ◽  
Brian Henry ◽  
Rhys Herbert
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Relative Price ◽  
Supply Side ◽  
On Demand ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
Oil Sector

Although there is some uncertainty about the prices at which trading takes place on the oil market, there is no doubt that the falls in oil prices since the early part of this year amount to one of the most significant economic events of the 1980s. If falls of such magnitude are maintained, investment plans in the oil sector, and depletion policy, could be affected. Furthermore, other supply-side changes may be set in train, due to the relative price (of oil to other fuels) change, and switches in profitability from the oil sector to other sectors of the economy. There are other, more immediate and quantifiable effects of oil price changes however: on demand, on the exchange rate and on prices. In this note we will offer estimates of the second set of effects, abstracting from effects on North Sea oil investment, and from any effects that improved profitability of the non-oil sectors of the economy may exert on investment apart from those associated with the increase in macroeconomic activity. A ‘no change’ assumption for oil investment is made for convenience, and to ease comparison with other simulations reported subsequently in Section 3. As for investment in the non-oil sector, our econometric work has failed to detect an influence for company profits once full allowance is made for expected future sales by this sector.

scholarly journals Analysis of the Impact of Fiscal and Exchange Rate on Growth: Lithuanian and Polish Case

Ekonomika ◽  
2004 ◽  
Vol 68 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philippe Grainville
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Price Stability ◽  
European Policy ◽  
Policy Mix ◽  
Baltic States ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
The Impact

The implementation of the EMU translates a new European policy mix. Our article proposes a study on the coordination of the monetary and budgetary policies for the Baltic States for their complete integration in the European policy mix. New members must ensure a monetary policy able to answer the objective of price stability; they take part in EMS II for three years.The budgetary sovereignty of governments is relative taking into account their obligations in accordance with the Pact of Stability and Growth. After the participation in the Monetary Union. the countries cannot change their exchange rate, they will loose weapon of the exchange rate and will have henceforth only the budgetary and fiscal policies to adjust their economies. These last are in addition limited by the criteria of convergence and the Pact of Stability and Growth.Credibility can be obtained only by affecting to each authority a specific objective, namely the price stability for the monetary authority and the soutenability of the national debt for the budgetary authority.A not balanced policy mix encourages financial turbulences, which occur when the investors have doubts as to the capacity of the country to absorb a shock (for example, in Russia). Budgetary deficit can reach a significant level. The monetary supply which can finance the deficit is then higher than the demand.According to monetarists, the budgetary discipline is associated with a partial control of prices and wages. In Poland, the “popiwek”, which is a tax on the increases in wages, attempts to reduce the budgetary deficit. Such a policy of freezed prices and wages is able to produce a fast deceleration of inflation. The public accounts thus tend to improve quickly.For monetarists, the monetary policy does not have any influence on the real sphere. The entry in the EMU supposes the loss of the exchange rate. The adjustment of the economic policy for the Member States in the event of asymmetrical shocks can be done only by the tax and budgetary policies. The latter are indirectly forced by the respect of the criteria of restoration of public finances; in the Central European East countries these problems are significant.In the current context of slowdown in economic activity, several governments of the Euro zone asked the European Central Bank to lower their rates to support the economic activity. Within this framework, we will study the impact on the growth of this new policy mix to which the Baltic States and Poland will be subjected.

scholarly journals Angola

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (170) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Flexible Exchange Rate ◽  
Policy Response ◽  
Growth Recovery ◽  
Alternative Sources ◽  
Oil Revenues

A 36-month Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (hereafter the “arrangement”) was approved last December, with access of SDR 2,673 million (361 percent of quota). Lower international oil prices would reduce oil revenues, widen the current account deficit, and stymie growth recovery. The authorities are implementing a proper policy response to the weakened outlook, through a conservative supplementary budget for 2019, alternative sources of cheaper financing, and progress toward a more flexible exchange rate regime.

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