scholarly journals Hyperbolic compartmental models for epidemic spread on networks with uncertain data: Application to the emergence of COVID-19 in Italy

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-37
Author(s):  
Giulia Bertaglia ◽  
Lorenzo Pareschi
Keyword(s):  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Uncertain Data ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Lombardy Region ◽  
Data Application ◽  
Spatial Movement ◽  
City Network ◽  
Collocation Approach ◽  
Official Sources ◽  
Realistic Data

The importance of spatial networks in the spread of an epidemic is an essential aspect in modeling the dynamics of an infectious disease. Additionally, any realistic data-driven model must take into account the large uncertainty in the values reported by official sources such as the amount of infectious individuals. In this paper, we address the above aspects through a hyperbolic compartmental model on networks, in which nodes identify locations of interest such as cities or regions, and arcs represent the ensemble of main mobility paths. The model describes the spatial movement and interactions of a population partitioned, from an epidemiological point of view, on the basis of an extended compartmental structure and divided into commuters, moving on a suburban scale, and non-commuters, acting on an urban scale. Through a diffusive rescaling, the model allows us to recover classical diffusion equations related to commuting dynamics. The numerical solution of the resulting multiscale hyperbolic system with uncertainty is then tackled using a stochastic collocation approach in combination with a finite volume Implicit–Explicit (IMEX) method. The ability of the model to correctly describe the spatial heterogeneity underlying the spread of an epidemic in a realistic city network is confirmed with a study of the outbreak of COVID-19 in Italy and its spread in the Lombardy Region.

scholarly journals Journey from Krasnoyarsk to Moscow in 1923

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 71-78
Author(s):  
Bershadskaia Svetlana V. ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Everyday Life ◽  
Local History ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Historical Research ◽  
Soviet Society ◽  
History Museum ◽  
Personal Experiences ◽  
Grassroots Level ◽  
First Time ◽  
Official Sources

By examining the personal journal of Marfa Solov’eva, one of the staff of Krasnoyarsk Local History Museum (Yenissei Province), the article aims to analyze some changes of everyday life at the beginning of the 1920s. Aged 33, Ms. Solov’eva found herself among the members of the Yenissei Province delegation sent to participate in the First All-Union Agriculture and Orchard Industry Exhibition in Moscow in 1923. She wrote down her personal experiences of travelling from Krasnoyarsk to Moscow. Given that anthropological shift has taken the lead in historical research, the materials of personal origin (like personal journals) provide an additional avenue to get firsthand information on how contemporaries interpreted the turning points in history. By focusing on the findings from the personal journal introduced for the first time the article investigates the transformations in early Soviet society at the grassroots level and from the point of view of a young representative of Siberian intelligentsia. The article demonstrates how day-to-day and leisure practices of those who took part in the trip were organized. Additionally, it considers the emotional sphere, which is missed to a greater extent by official sources. A mixture of interdisciplinary, systematic and sociocultural approaches and descriptive methods for interpreting sources has been adopted. Keywords: personal journal, everyday life, the intelligentsia, Siberia, the Yenissei province, the onset of NEP, the First All-Union Agriculture and Orchard Industry Exhibition in Moscow in 1923

DOES 'INNÂ DENOTE RAPE? A SEMANTIC ANALYSIS OF A CONTROVERSIAL WORD

2002 ◽  
Vol 52 (4) ◽  
pp. 528-544 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ellen Van Wolde
Keyword(s):  
Sexual Abuse ◽  
Hebrew Bible ◽  
Word Order ◽  
Semantic Analysis ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Spatial Movement ◽  
Lexical Collocations

AbstractThe widespread opinion that the verb 'innâ in the Pi'el refers to "rape" or "sexual abuse" is not acceptable. It suffers from a lack of analysis of all the biblical material and of the distribution of 'innâ with a female object in the Hebrew Bible. A semantic analysis of the lexical collocations, of the word order and of the textual occurrences in which 'innâ functions shows that this verb is used as an evaluative term in a juridical context denoting a spatial movement downwards in a social sense and should be translated as "debase". By implication, the verb 'innâ in Gen. xxxiv 2 does not describe Shechem's rape or sexual abuse of Dinah, but evaluates Shechem's previously described actions as a debasement of Dinah from a social-juridical point of view.

scholarly journals Describing the COVID-19 Outbreak Fitting Modified SIR models to Data

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aldo Ianni ◽  
Nicola Rossi
Keyword(s):  
Time Evolution ◽  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Future Evolution ◽  
The Social ◽  
Model Predictions ◽  
Official Sources ◽  
Far Future

AbstractIn this paper we fit simple modifications of the SIR compartmental model to the COVID-19 outbreak data, available from official sources for Italy and other countries. Even if the complexity of the pandemic can not be easily modelled, we show that our model, at present, describes the time evolution of the data in spite of the application of the social distancing and lock-down procedure. Finally, we discuss the reliability of the model predictions, under certain conditions, for estimating the near and far future evolution of the COVID-19 outbreak. The conditions for the applicability of the proposed models are discussed.

scholarly journals Conflict between doctor and patient: legal consequences

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 118-122
Author(s):  
I. G. Berezin ◽  
Y. B. Samoilova ◽  
Y. L. Shepeleva
Keyword(s):  
Medical Care ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Medical Services ◽  
Sources Of Information ◽  
Conflict Situations ◽  
Quality Of Medical Care ◽  
Official Sources ◽  
Legal Consequences

The article is devoted to the quality of medical care from the point of view of the legal consequences of conflict situations arising during the provision of medical services. The authors made an attempt to analyze the most typical conflict situations with possible legal consequences of their resolution based on examples from official sources of information.

scholarly journals Node and Edge Eigenvector Centrality for Hypergraphs

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesco Tudisco ◽  
Desmond Higham
Keyword(s):  
Eigenvalue Problems ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Centrality Measures ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Power Method ◽  
Eigenvector Centrality ◽  
Nonlinear Eigenvalue Problems ◽  
Pairwise Interactions ◽  
Important Nodes ◽  
Realistic Data

Abstract Network scientists have shown that there is great value in studying pairwise interactions between components in a system. From a linear algebra point of view, this involves defining and evaluating functions of the associated adjacency matrix. Recent work indicates that there are further benefits from accounting directly for higher order interactions, notably through a hypergraph representation where an edge may involve multiple nodes. Building on these ideas, we motivate, define and analyze a class of spectral centrality measures for identifying important nodes and hyperedges in hypergraphs, generalizing existing network science concepts. By exploiting the latest developments in nonlinear Perron-Frobenius theory, we show how the resulting constrained nonlinear eigenvalue problems have unique solutions that can be computed efficiently via a nonlinear power method iteration. We illustrate the measures on realistic data sets.

When Luxury Vinous-Concept Hotel Meets Premium Wine Brands

2021 ◽  
pp. 366-380
Author(s):  
Lisa Ferraz ◽  
Helena Nobre ◽  
Belém Barbosa
Keyword(s):  
Literature Review ◽  
Qualitative Data ◽  
Brand Image ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Exploratory Research ◽  
Branding Strategy ◽  
Data Application ◽  
Luxury Hotel ◽  
Depth Interviews

Co-branding in the hospitality luxury sector is still understudied in the literature. This study aims at tackling this gap through the analysis of a case of a co-branding strategy between a vinous-concept luxury hotel in Portugal and premium wine brands of domestic producers. Fourteen in-depth interviews with managers of the luxury hotel and wine brand partners supported the exploratory research. This chapter represents a case of qualitative data application to an underestimated topic in the literature from the managers' point of view. The study offers evidence on the benefits for both parties, reasons for adopting co-branding, and partners' selection attributes. The improvement of brand image emerges as one of the main advantages of co-branding with a luxury hotel. Based on the literature review and the interviews with managers, the study proposes a set of hypotheses to be tested in future research. This chapter provides interesting cues for academics and practitioners.

scholarly journals Statistical Issues and Group Classification in Plasma MicroRNA Studies With Data Application

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 ◽  
pp. 117693432091333
Author(s):  
Shesh N Rai ◽  
Chen Qian ◽  
Jianmin Pan ◽  
Marion McClain ◽  
Maurice R Eichenberger ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Methods ◽  
Housekeeping Genes ◽  
Group Classification ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Analysis Of Covariance ◽  
Statistical Point ◽  
Data Application ◽  
Threshold Time ◽  
Plasma Microrna ◽  
Plasma Mirna

The analysis of plasma microRNAs (miRNAs) has been widely used as a method for finding potential biomarkers for human diseases, especially those with a link to cancer. Methods of analyzing plasma miRNA have been thoroughly discussed from sample extraction to data modeling. However, some issues exist within the process that have rarely been talked about. Rice et al. discussed some issues in plasma miRNA studies, such as the lack of standard methodology including the use of different cycle threshold, time to plasma extraction, among others. These issues can lead to inconsistent data, and thus impact the result and assay reproducibility. Other external issues, such as batch effect and operator effect, may also indirectly impact the statistical analysis. Here, we discuss issues in plasma miRNA studies from a statistical point of view. The interaction effect of different ways of calculating fold-change, the choice of housekeeping genes, and methods of normalization are among the issues we discuss, with data demonstrations. P values are calculated and compared to determine the effect of those issues on statistical conclusions. Statistical methods such as analysis of variance and analysis of covariance are crucial in the analysis of miRNA but investigators are often confused about them; therefore, a brief explanation of these statistical methods is also included. In addition, 3-group classification is discussed, as it is often challenging, compared with 2-group classification.

scholarly journals Effect of density dependence on coinfection dynamics

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Andersson ◽  
Samia Ghersheen ◽  
Vladimir Kozlov ◽  
Vladimir G. Tkachev ◽  
Uno Wennergren
Keyword(s):  
Carrying Capacity ◽  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Stable Equilibrium ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Volterra Model ◽  
Vital Rates ◽  
Fundamental Parameters ◽  
Infection Dynamics ◽  
Progression Of Disease

AbstractIn this paper we develop a compartmental model of SIR type (the abbreviation refers to the number of Susceptible, Infected and Recovered people) that models the population dynamics of two diseases that can coinfect. We discuss how the underlying dynamics depends on the carrying capacity K: from a simple dynamics to a more complex. This can also help in understanding the appearance of more complicated dynamics, for example, chaos and periodic oscillations, for large values of K. It is also presented that pathogens can invade in population and their invasion depends on the carrying capacity K which shows that the progression of disease in population depends on carrying capacity. More specifically, we establish all possible scenarios (the so-called transition diagrams) describing an evolution of an (always unique) locally stable equilibrium state (with only non-negative compartments) for fixed fundamental parameters (density independent transmission and vital rates) as a function of the carrying capacity K. An important implication of our results is the following important observation. Note that one can regard the value of K as the natural ‘size’ (the capacity) of a habitat. From this point of view, an isolation of individuals (the strategy which showed its efficiency for COVID-19 in various countries) into smaller resp. larger groups can be modelled by smaller resp. bigger values of K. Then we conclude that the infection dynamics becomes more complex for larger groups, as it fairly maybe expected for values of the reproduction number $$R_0\approx 1$$ R 0 ≈ 1 . We show even more, that for the values $$R_0>1$$ R 0 > 1 there are several (in fact four different) distinguished scenarios where the infection complexity (the number of nonzero infected classes) arises with growing K. Our approach is based on a bifurcation analysis which allows to generalize considerably the previous Lotka-Volterra model considered previously in Ghersheen et al. (Math Meth Appl Sci 42(8), 2019).

scholarly journals SOCIAL COST OF FEMALE URINARY INCONTINENCE: EPIDEMIOLOGY, COST OF ILLNESS AND COST/EFFECTIVENESS ANALYSIS

2010 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. BERNASCONI ◽  
M. GRASSO ◽  
C. MANTOVANI ◽  
E. LUCCHINI ◽  
S. ARIENTI ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Urinary Incontinence ◽  
Social Cost ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Female Urinary Incontinence ◽  
Female Population ◽  
Economic Point ◽  
Total Cost ◽  
Lombardy Region ◽  
The Social ◽  
Health Related

This paper presents the results of a broad, transversal, observational survey on the social cost of female urinary incontinence in the general female population, resident in the ASL3-Monza area. In this population, in an 18- 65 year old age group, the prevalence of U.I. observed is 28.5% (LIFE cases) and 18.6% (YEAR cases). The total number of incontinent women in the ASL3-Monza area and in the Lombardy Region can be estimated as follows: - ASL3-Monza 125,288 “LIFE” cases, 81,767 (18.6% of 439,609) “YEAR” cases. - Lombardy Region 1,119,480 “LIFE” cases, 730,608 (18.6% of 3,928,709) “YEAR” cases. In the light of the data collected, we can estimate that in the Lombardy Region and in the ASL3-Monza area, at least 379,600 (52% of 730,608) and 42,518 (52% of 81,767) incontinent women use protection and 175,200 (24% of 730,608) and 19,624 (24% of 81,767) consider using a pad to be the only useful solution to the problem. The “estimated” mean/annual cost per woman in an incontinent population with characteristics similar to those of the general female population of the ASL3-Monza is € 358,03, for a mean/life cost per woman of € 11.099,20.When there is no effective treatment of the symptom, we can estimate the following total cost/life in the ASL3-Monza area to be: 65,414 x 31 x € 358,03 = € 726.025.407. If the symptom disappears and the treatment is effective, this is also an advantage, apart from the obvious requirement for public health related to it, from a strictly pharmacological-economic point of view. The estimated total/life cost for the treatment (with the most effective medical, rehabilitative and/or surgical therapy available today) of a sample of 1,000 incontinent women of the ASL3- Monza area is significatively lower than the total cost/life expected in the case of persistence and “assistance” of the symptom: € 4.502.812,10 vs. € 23.451.270,02. Despite the methodological limits of a pilot study (single centre collection of data, limited samples, analysis of “theoretical” populations), from the data collected it appears clear that the more incisive and determined the strategy of information and education, and the fuller and earlier the diagnosis, the more significative the social- economic, as well as the psycho-social saving.

scholarly journals Horizontal and Vertical Rule Bases Method in Fuzzy Controllers

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sadegh Aminifar ◽  
Arjuna bin Marzuki
Keyword(s):  
Fuzzy Systems ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Uncertain Data ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Control Surface ◽  
Rule Base ◽  
Variable Parameters ◽  
Second Stage ◽  
Rule Bases

Concept of horizontal and vertical rule bases is introduced. Using this method enables the designers to look for main behaviors of system and describes them with greater approximations. The rules which describe the system in first stage are called horizontal rule base. In the second stage, the designer modulates the obtained surface by describing needed changes on first surface for handling real behaviors of system. The rules used in the second stage are called vertical rule base. Horizontal and vertical rule bases method has a great roll in easing of extracting the optimum control surface by using too lesser rules than traditional fuzzy systems. This research involves with control of a system with high nonlinearity and in difficulty to model it with classical methods. As a case study for testing proposed method in real condition, the designed controller is applied to steaming room with uncertain data and variable parameters. A comparison between PID and traditional fuzzy counterpart and our proposed system shows that our proposed system outperforms PID and traditional fuzzy systems in point of view of number of valve switching and better surface following. The evaluations have done both with model simulation and DSP implementation.

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