Figure-of-Merit for a Long-Term Survivorship of a Species Determined from the Short-Term Mortality Rate of Its Individual Organisms

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (03) ◽  
pp. 111-123
Author(s):  
E. Suhir
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Figure Of Merit ◽  
Time Derivative ◽  
Original Research ◽  
Initial Moment ◽  
Electronic Product ◽  
Short Term Mortality ◽  
Random Failure ◽  
The Individual

The two analytical (“mathematical”) probabilistic predictive models considered in this analysis suggest that (1) the nonrandom time-derivative of the long-term mortality rate at a rather arbitrary initial moment of time for a particular type of species of interest can be viewed as a suitable physical or biological criterion, a sort of a figure of merit (FoM), of its long-term viability/survivorship and that (2) this derivative can be determined as the variance of the random mortality rate for the significantly shorter, of course, lifespan of the individual organisms that the type of species as a whole, addressed by the first model, is comprised of. This suggestion is obtained as a modification and extension of and as an “analogy” to a concept that the author developed earlier in application to microelectronics products. So, it is assumed in our approach that the long-term survivorship of a species comprised of numerous individual organisms is analogous to the long-term performance of an electronic product comprised of numerous mass-produced components. In the original research, it was shown that the time-derivative at the initial moment of time of the nonrandom infant mortality portion (IMP) of the bathtub curve (BTC) for an electronic product is, in effect, the variance of the random failure rate (RFR) of the mass-produced components that this product is comprised of, and it is assumed that such an analogy is applicable also to the long-term survivorship of a species comprised of numerous individual organisms. The larger this variance, the shorter is the expected long-term lifetime (survivorship) of the species as a whole. Future work should be focused, first of all, on the verification of the trustworthiness of our basic assumption for different species, including humans, and on the accumulation of statistical data for long-term survivorship of various species and their existing or future habitats, with consideration of the roles of gravity, temperature, level of radiation, attributes of the atmosphere, if any, etc., as well as on calculating lifespan variances for the organisms that the species of interest are comprised of.

Territorial Distribution of Alcohol and Drug Addictions Mortality Concerning Regional Disparities in the Slovak Republic from Year 1996 to Year 2015

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Slovak Republic ◽  
Regional Disparities ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Extreme Position ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Female Sex ◽  
Male Sex ◽  
The Individual ◽  
High Level

BACKGROUND: This paper deals with territorial distribution of the alcohol and drug addictions mortality at a level of the districts of the Slovak Republic. AIM: The aim of the paper is to explore the relations within the administrative territorial division of the Slovak Republic, that is, between the individual districts and hence, to reveal possibly hidden relation in alcohol and drug mortality. METHODS: The analysis is divided and executed into the two fragments – one belongs to the female sex, the other one belongs to the male sex. The standardised mortality rate is computed according to a sequence of the mathematical relations. The Euclidean distance is employed to compute the similarity within each pair of a whole data set. The cluster analysis examines is performed. The clusters are created by means of the mutual distances of the districts. The data is collected from the database of the Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic for all the districts of the Slovak Republic. The covered time span begins in the year 1996 and ends in the year 2015. RESULTS: The most substantial point is that the Slovak Republic possesses the regional disparities in a field of mortality expressed by the standardised mortality rate computed particularly for the diagnoses assigned to the alcohol and drug addictions at a considerably high level. However, the female sex and the male sex have the different outcome. The Bratislava III District keeps absolutely the most extreme position. It forms an own cluster for the both sexes too. The Topoľčany District bears a similar extreme position from a point of view of the male sex. All the Bratislava districts keep their mutual notable dissimilarity. Contrariwise, evaluation of a development of the regional disparities among the districts looks like notably heterogeneously. CONCLUSIONS: There are considerable regional discrepancies throughout the districts of the Slovak Republic. Hence, it is necessary to create a common platform how to proceed with the solution of this issue.

Long Term Prognostic Utility of Matrix Metalloproteinase-9 in Patients with Acute Coronary Syndrome – A Systematic Review

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anamika Das ◽  
Melvin George ◽  
Durga Jha ◽  
Luxitaa Goenka
Keyword(s):  
Acute Coronary Syndrome ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Matrix Metalloproteinase ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Left Ventricular ◽  
Original Research ◽  
Coronary Syndrome ◽  
Potential Biomarker ◽  
Prognostic Utility

Background: Acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is the leading cause for morbidity and mortality in developed countries. Numerous groups have explored single and multiple biomarker strategies to identify diagnostic prognosticators of ACS which will improve our ability to identify high-risk individuals. Matrix metalloproteinase (MMP-9) is one potential biomarker which has been widely studied in ACS. Recent reports have showed the prognostic utility of MMP-9, but due to inconsistent results, it has not been possible to draw firm conclusions. Objective: This review aims to explore the ability of MMP-9 to predict long-term prognosis of ACS. To clarify this issue, we conducted a literature review to provide a comprehensive assessment of MMP-9 levels in ACS patients. Method: We retrieved a total of 1501 articles from PubMed and Google Scholar. After thorough scrutiny, 12 original research articles were found fulfilling the inclusion exclusion criteria. MMP-9’s ability as a biomarker of prognostication post ACS was reviewed. PRISMA guidelines were used for reporting. Result: The results revealed that MMP-9, apart from being an efficient diagnostic biomarker for ACS, helps in predicting the future risk of ACS with disease outcome. Positive correlation was found between plasma MMP-9 and left ventricular remodeling. A positive association was also found between cardiovascular death and higher MMP-9 levels. Conclusion: MMP-9 can be a potential prognostic marker for ACS and aid in identifying high risk patients for intensive management during follow -up.

The Mortality Rate of COVID-19 in Iraq Compare with Iran and Turkey, its Association with the Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccine and the Iraqi Preparedness Plan Prior to Pandemics. (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rawand Essa
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Daily Basis ◽  
Bcg Vaccine ◽  
Critical Position ◽  
Preparedness Plan ◽  
Contagious Diseases ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Government

BACKGROUND In the span of COVID-19, the mortality rate has been different from one country to another. As a country in the Middle East Iraq has a critical position, lies between Iran and Turkey while both countries coronavirus cases increase on daily basis, while Iranian mortality rate record is high similar to Turkey. After Wuhan city of China, Lombard of Italy, Qum city in Iran has the highest number of COVID-19 as a first country in the Middle East. OBJECTIVE aim of this study is to show the effect of BCG vaccine during pandemic diseases, especially nowadays at the time of COVID-19. One of the crucial observations is the government preparedness and strategic planning prior pandemics, in which the BCG vaccine is an attenuated live vaccine for control of tuberculosis (TB). BCG vaccine has a non-specific immune effect that is used against pathogens like bacteria and viruses, through the promotion of pro-inflammatory cytokines' secretion. METHODS An epidemiological study has been performed, and it shows that some countries are more prone to contagious diseases like COVID-19, regardless of the main cultural, religious, societal similarities among the three mentioned countries. The information data has been collected from WHO reports and worldometer in 18 February 2020 to 10 May 2020. Regarding the efficacy of the BCG vaccine, relevant data has been retrieved from Google scholar, Pub-med and BCG world-atlas. RESULTS COVID-19 mortality rates are at peak in Iran and Turkey while the mortality rate is very low in Iraq, while the patients that died in Iraq all had history of other long-term diseases as heart disease, blood pressure, cancer etc. CONCLUSIONS From the experiences of the three countries in the life span of COVID-19, the historical plan of BCG vaccine in Iraq in cooperation with WHO since the last decades it shows that COVID-19 mortality rate is lower than other countries due to the early vaccination of the Iraqis, otherwise Iraq is more fragile than Iran and Turkey due to the poor conditions of Iraq in terms of economics, politics, war and other aspects.

The Acceptance of Party Unity in Parliamentary Democracies

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
David M. Willumsen
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Costs And Benefits ◽  
Parliamentary Democracies ◽  
Survey Questions ◽  
Ideal Policy ◽  
Central Argument ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Policy Incentives

The central argument of this book is that voting unity in European legislatures is not primarily the result of the ‘disciplining’ power of the leadership of parliamentary parties, but rather the result of a combination of ideological homogeneity through self-selection into political parties and the calculations of individual legislators about their own long-term benefits. Despite the central role of policy preferences in the subsequent behaviour of legislators, preferences at the level of the individual legislator have been almost entirely neglected in the study of parliaments and legislative behaviour. The book measures these using an until now under-utilized resource: parliamentary surveys. Building on these, the book develops measures of policy incentives of legislators to dissent from their parliamentary parties, and show that preference similarity amongst legislators explains a very substantial proportion of party unity, yet alone cannot explain all of it. Analysing the attitudes of legislators to the demands of party unity, and what drives these attitudes, the book argues that what explains the observed unity (beyond what preference similarity would explain) is the conscious acceptance by MPs that the long-term benefits of belonging to a united party (such as increased influence on legislation, lower transaction costs, and better chances of gaining office) outweigh the short-terms benefits of always voting for their ideal policy outcome. The book buttresses this argument through the analysis of both open-ended survey questions as well as survey questions on the costs and benefits of belonging to a political party in a legislature.

scholarly journals Assessing Stability of Crutch Users by Non-Contact Methods

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (6) ◽  
pp. 3001
Author(s):  
Achilles Vairis ◽  
Suzana Brown ◽  
Maurice Bess ◽  
Kyu Hyun Bae ◽  
Jonathan Boyack
Keyword(s):  
Signal To Noise Ratio ◽  
Time Derivative ◽  
Assistive Devices ◽  
Signal To Noise ◽  
Physically Disabled ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Novice Users ◽  
Noise Ratio ◽  
Physically Disabled People

Enhancing gait stability in people who use crutches is paramount for their health. With the significant difference in gait compared to users who do not require an assistive device, the use of standard gait analysis tools to measure movement for temporary crush users and physically disabled people proves to be more challenging. In this paper, a novel approach based on video analysis is proposed as non-contact low-cost solution to the more expensive alternative with the data collected from processed videos, two values are calculated: the Signal to Noise Ratio (SNR) of acceleration, and the Signal to Noise Ratio of the jerk (time derivative of acceleration), to assess the user’s stability while they walk with crutches. The adopted methodology has been tested on a total of 10 participants. Five are temporary users of assistive devices with one being a long-term user and the other four novice users, and five are disabled participants who use those assistive devices permanently. Preliminary results show differences between novice users, long-term users, and physically disabled users. The approach is promising and could improve the assessment of crutch user stability, allowing for the correction of gait for individuals while using an inexpensive non-contact setup and preventing unnecessary falls.

scholarly journals Title I: Modernizing Definitions and Programs Under the Administration on Aging

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 714-715
Author(s):  
Marie Gualtieri
Keyword(s):  
Title I ◽  
Adult Population ◽  
Term Care ◽  
Older Americans ◽  
Aging Society ◽  
Program Adaptation ◽  
Older Americans Act ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Older Adult Population

Abstract The recent reauthorization of the Older Americans Act adds language and definitions to current issues facing the aging population. Specifically, Title I includes definitions related to program adaptation and coordination, workforce and long-term care issues, nutrition and social isolation, as well as family caregivers. Different from the last authorization, these definitions span beyond the individual experience to include other entities impacted by an aging society, such as the workforce and families. Overall, the Title I reauthorization seeks to modernize policy to reflect the current influx of the older adult population and its consequences.

scholarly journals Housing adaptations and housing accessibility problems among older adults with long-standing spinal cord injury

2020 ◽  
pp. 030802262097951
Author(s):  
Lizette Norin ◽  
Björn Slaug ◽  
Maria Haak ◽  
Susanne Iwarsson
Keyword(s):  
Older Adults ◽  
Spinal Cord ◽  
Spinal Cord Injuries ◽  
Occupational Performance ◽  
Environmental Barriers ◽  
Cord Injury ◽  
Long Term Follow Up ◽  
Societal Level ◽  
The Individual

Introduction Adults with spinal cord injuries are living longer than previously, and a majority are living in ordinary housing in the community. Housing accessibility is important for maintaining independent occupational performance for this population, but knowledge in this area is insufficient. We investigated housing adaptations and current accessibility problems among older adults with long-standing (>10 years) spinal cord injuries. Method Data from home visits among 122 older adults with spinal cord injuries in Sweden were used. Housing adaptations and environmental barriers were descriptively analysed. Findings Kitchens, entrances, and hygiene areas were common locations for housing adaptations and environmental barriers that generated accessibility problems. The most common adaptations were ramps, wheelchair-accessible stovetops, and ceiling-lifts. Wall-mounted cupboards and high shelves (kitchen), inaccessible storage areas (outside the dwelling), and a lack of grab bars (hygiene area) generated the most accessibility problems. Conclusion Despite housing adaptations, there are considerable accessibility problems in the dwellings of older adults with long-standing spinal cord injuries in Sweden, indicating that long-term follow-up of the housing situation of this population is necessary. Focusing on accessible housing as a prerequisite for occupational performance is at the core of occupational therapy, deserving attention on the individual as well as the societal level.

Infective endocarditis in patients who use IV drugs: a single centre cohort

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
H Alraddadi ◽  
A Alsagheir ◽  
S Gao ◽  
K An ◽  
H Hronyecz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Staphylococcus Aureus ◽  
Infective Endocarditis ◽  
Long Term Outcomes ◽  
Replacement Surgery ◽  
Short Term Mortality ◽  
History Of ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Baseline Characteristics

Abstract Background Managing endocarditis in intravenous drug use (IVDU) patients is challenging: unless patients successfully quit IVDU, the risk of re-infection is high. Clinicians often raise concerns with ethical and resource allocation principles when considering valve replacement surgery in this patient population. To help inform practice, we sought to determine the long-term outcomes of IVDU patients with endocarditis who underwent valve surgery in our center. Method After research ethics board approval, infective endocarditis cases managed surgically at our General Hospital between 2009 and 2018 were identified through the Cardiac Care Network. We reviewed patients' charts and included those with a history of IVDU in this study. We abstracted data on baseline characteristics, peri-operative course, short- and long-term outcomes. We report results using descriptive statistics. Results We identified 124 IVDU patients with surgically managed endocarditis. Mean age was 37 years (SD 11), 61% were females and 8% had redo surgery. During admission, 45% (n=56) of the patients had an embolic event: 63% pulmonary, 30% cerebral, 18% peripheral and 11% mesenteric. Causative organisms included Methicillin-Sensitive Staphylococcus Aureus (51%, n=63), Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus Aureus (15%, n=19), Streptococcus Viridans (2%, n=2), and others (31%, n=38). Emergency cardiac surgery was performed for 42% of patients (n=52). Most patients (84%) had single valve intervention: 53% tricuspid, 18% aortic and 13% mitral. Double valve interventions occurred in 15% (n=18). Overall, bioprosthetic replacement was most commonly chosen (79%, n=98). In-hospital mortality was 7% (n=8). Median length of stay in hospital was 13 days (IQR 8,21) and ICU 2 days (IQR 1,6). Mortality at longest available follow-up was 24% (n=30), with a median follow-up of 129 days (IQR 15,416). Valve reintervention rate was 11% (n=13) and readmission rate was 14% (n=17) at a median of 275 days (IQR 54,502). Conclusion Despite their critical condition, IVDU patients with endocarditis have good intra-hospital outcomes. Challenges occur after hospital discharge with loss of follow-up and high short-term mortality. IVDU relapse likely accounts for some of these issues. In-hospital and community comprehensive addiction management may improve these patients' outcomes beyond the surgical procedure. Annual rate 2009–2018 Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None

scholarly journals Comparison of Short- and Long-Term Prognosis between ST-Elevation and Non-ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 180
Author(s):  
Frédéric Bouisset ◽  
Jean-Bernard Ruidavets ◽  
Jean Dallongeville ◽  
Marie Moitry ◽  
Michele Montaye ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Myocardial Infarction ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Confounding Factors ◽  
Coronary Syndrome ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
St Elevation ◽  
Probability Of Death ◽  
Long Term Prognosis

Background: Available data comparing long-term prognosis according to the type of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) are scarce, contradictory, and outdated. Our aim was to compare short- and long-term mortality in ST-elevated (STEMI) and non-ST-elevated myocardial infarction (non-STEMI) ACS patients. Methods: Patients presenting with an inaugural ACS during the year 2006 and living in one of the three areas in France covered by the Monitoring of Trends and Determinants in Cardiovascular Disease (MONICA) registry were included. Results: A total of 1822 patients with a first ACS—1121 (61.5%) STEMI and 701 (38.5%) non-STEMI—were included in the study. At the 28-day follow-up, the mortality rates were 6.7% and 4.7% (p = 0.09) for STEMI and non-STEMI patients, respectively, and after adjustment of potential confounding factors, the 28-day probability of death was significantly lower for non-STEMI ACS patients (Odds Ratio = 0.58 (0.36–0.94), p = 0.03). At the 10-year follow-up, the death rates were 19.6% and 22.8% (p = 0.11) for STEMI and non-STEMI patients, respectively, and after adjustment of potential confounding factors, the 10-year probability of death did not significantly differ between non-STEMI and STEMI events (OR = 1.07 (0.83–1.38), p = 0.59). Over the first year, the mortality rate was 7.2%; it then decreased and stabilized at 1.7% per year between the 2nd and 10th year following ACS. Conclusion: STEMI patients have a worse vital prognosis than non-STEMI patients within 28 days following ACS. However, at the 10-year follow-up, STEMI and non-STEMI patients have a similar vital prognosis. From the 2nd year onwards following the occurrence of a first ACS, the patients become stable coronary artery disease patients with an annual mortality rate in the 2% range, regardless of the type of ACS they initially present with.

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