Estimating the Impact of Cumulative Rules of Origin on Trade Costs: An Application to Mega-regional Free Trade Agreements in the Asia-Pacific Region

2022 ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
Chul Chung ◽  
Innwon Park ◽  
Soonchan Park

Abstract We investigate the effects of free trade agreements (FTAs), focusing on the impact of cumulative rules of origin (ROO) on trade costs. Using a gravity regression model, we estimate the effect of various cumulative ROO systems on the measured trade costs. We apply these estimates to static and capital accumulation computable general equilibrium models to compare the effects of mega-regional FTAs in the Asia-Pacific region—namely, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), and Free Trade Areas in the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP). We find that mega-regional FTAs may not be a viable alternative to a multilateral trading system or bilateral FTAs unless less restrictive cumulative ROO are adopted. Successful FTAs depend on an appropriate cumulative ROO provision system rather than their membership expansion.

Author(s):  
Aleksandr Nikolaevich Fedorovskii

The article deals with the main purposes, opportunities and risks of the Republic of Korea’s involvement in integration projects. The author stresses the basic principles of South Korean foreign economic strategy, including common views of the different president administrations on key foreign economic priorities, including constant support of business expansion towards the most prominent markets. The analysis focuses also on new methods of support of national business interests: the transition from rigid defense of domestic market to adoption to growing competition at home as far as foreign partners agreed to open their markets to South Korean export. The paper describes role of bilateral Free Trade Agreements (FTA) and regional mega-projects in South Korea’s foreign economic diplomacy. Comparison study of bilateral Free Trade Agreements between the Republic of Korea on the one side, European Union, the USA and China on the other sides. The author characterizes growing role of China and other East Asian countries for South Korean economy the ROK-China Free Trade Agreement, including some obstacles and limitations to upgrade development of bilateral economic exchanges. Special attention paid to positive and negative factors, influenced on economic integrations between China, Japan and the Republic of Korea. The paper describes Seoul’s interests in economic integration projects in East Asia, including involvement in joint economic projects with ASEAN. The author analyses the Republic of Korea’s attitude to regional mega-projects in Asia-Pacific region such as Trans-Pacific Partnership. Finally the article describes modern stage and possible development of Russia-South Korea economic relations and contains forecast of the main trends of the Republic of Korea’s involvement in integration projects in East Asia and in Asia-Pacific region in general.


2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 66-96
Author(s):  
Dmitriy Izotov ◽  

The article uses international statistics to make a comparative assessment of the effects of integration within the Asia-Pacific region, the Western and Eastern macro-zones of the Asia-Pacific region, in terms of the contribution of the processes of globalization and regionalization in 1994–2018 due to trade agreements and their expansion. The resulting assessment of the effects of integration indicated a greater contribution of the globalization process to the growth of trade in the Asia-Pacific region (APR), especially for the countries of the Eastern macro-zone. It was found that in the Eastern macro-zone, the impact of trade agreements hindered the positive effects of integration. The author discovers fundamental differences between the effects occurring from expanding trade agreements. The process of globalization prevailed over regionalization only in the exporting countries of the Eastern macro-zone; the effects from regionalization were stronger for the importing countries compared to the exporters, which indicates the manifestation of the effect of trade diversion in the Eastern macro-zone. Obtained estimates indicate that from 1994 to 2018, the globalization process acted as a necessary condition for the expansion of trade in both the APR as a whole and in its Western macro-zone, while the process of regionalization played an important supporting role. In the Eastern macro-zone the positive effects of globalization compensated for the ambiguous effects of the regionalization, which, possibly, was the reason for the unsuccessful attempts to create trade mega-formats within this macro-zone. At the same time, the Eastern macro-zone countries that were expanding trade agreements (based at the economic framework) have achieved noticeable increase in trade interactions, especially exports. This is why it is assumed that the quality of the trade agreements, which affects the impact from their realization, is crucial as the assessment of the effects from proliferation of trade agreements demonstrate implicit discrimination of the countries that implement moderate policy of reducing trade barriers through trade agreements. Given the small size of domestic markets, the APR countries implementing such policy can only rely on the effects from globalization, which tend to diminish over time


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