Projections of snow water equivalent using a process-based energy balance snow model in southwestern British Columbia

Abstract Information about snow water equivalent in southwestern British Columbia is used for flood management, agriculture, fisheries, and water resource planning. This study evaluates whether a process-based, energy balance snow model supplied with high-resolution statistically downscaled temperature and precipitation data can effectively simulate snow water equivalent (SWE) in the mountainous terrain of this region. Daily values of SWE from 1951 to 2018 are simulated at 1 km resolution and evaluated using a reanalysis SWE product (SNODAS), manual snow survey measurements at 41 sites, and automated snow pillows at six locations in the study region. Simulated SWE matches observed inter-annual variability well (R2 > 0.8 for annual maximum SWE) but peak SWE biases of 20% to 40% occur at some sites in the study domain, and higher biases occur where observed SWE is very low. Modelled SWE displays lower bias compared to SNODAS reanalysis at most manual survey locations. Future projections for the study area are produced using 12 downscaled climate model simulations and used to illustrate the impacts of climate change on SWE at 1°C, 2°C, and 3°C of warming. Model results are used to quantify spring SWE changes at different elevations of the Whistler mountain ski resort, and the sensitivity of annual peak SWE in Metro Vancouver municipal watersheds to moderate temperature increases. The results illustrate both the potential utility of a process-based snow model, and identify areas where the input meteorological variables could be improved.

Evaluation of CLASS Snow Simulation over Eastern Canada

Journal of Hydrometeorology ◽

10.1175/jhm-d-16-0153.1 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 18 (5) ◽

pp. 1205-1225 ◽

Cited By ~ 19

Author(s):

Diana Verseghy ◽

Ross Brown ◽

Libo Wang

Keyword(s):

Snow Cover ◽

Land Surface ◽

Snow Water Equivalent ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Eastern Canada ◽

Fractional Snow Cover ◽

Forest Regions ◽

Snow Water ◽

Abstract The Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS), version 3.6.1, was run offline for the period 1990–2011 over a domain centered on eastern Canada, driven by atmospheric forcing data dynamically downscaled from ERA-Interim using the Canadian Regional Climate Model. The precipitation inputs were adjusted to replicate the monthly average precipitation reported in the CRU observational database. The simulated fractional snow cover and the surface albedo were evaluated using NOAA Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System and MODIS data, and the snow water equivalent was evaluated using CMC, Global Snow Monitoring for Climate Research (GlobSnow), and Hydro-Québec products. The modeled fractional snow cover agreed well with the observational estimates. The albedo of snow-covered areas showed a bias of up to −0.15 in boreal forest regions, owing to neglect of subgrid-scale lakes in the simulation. In June, conversely, there was a positive albedo bias in the remaining snow-covered areas, likely caused by neglect of impurities in the snow. The validation of the snow water equivalent was complicated by the fact that the three observation-based datasets differed widely. Also, the downward adjustment of the forcing precipitation clearly resulted in a low snow bias in some regions. However, where the density of the observations was high, the CLASS snow model was deemed to have performed well. Sensitivity tests confirmed the satisfactory behavior of the current parameterizations of snow thermal conductivity, snow albedo refreshment threshold, and limiting snow depth and underlined the importance of snow interception by vegetation. Overall, the study demonstrated the necessity of using a wide variety of observation-based datasets for model validation.

Assimilation of snow cover and snow depth into a snow model to estimate snow water equivalent and snowmelt runoff in a Himalayan catchment

The Cryosphere ◽

10.5194/tc-11-1647-2017 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 11 (4) ◽

pp. 1647-1664 ◽

Cited By ~ 29

Author(s):

Emmy E. Stigter ◽

Niko Wanders ◽

Tuomo M. Saloranta ◽

Joseph M. Shea ◽

Marc F. P. Bierkens ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Kalman Filter ◽

Data Assimilation ◽

Snow Cover ◽

Climate Sensitivity ◽

Snow Depth ◽

Snow Water Equivalent ◽

Snowmelt Runoff ◽

Snow Water ◽

Abstract. Snow is an important component of water storage in the Himalayas. Previous snowmelt studies in the Himalayas have predominantly relied on remotely sensed snow cover. However, snow cover data provide no direct information on the actual amount of water stored in a snowpack, i.e., the snow water equivalent (SWE). Therefore, in this study remotely sensed snow cover was combined with in situ observations and a modified version of the seNorge snow model to estimate (climate sensitivity of) SWE and snowmelt runoff in the Langtang catchment in Nepal. Snow cover data from Landsat 8 and the MOD10A2 snow cover product were validated with in situ snow cover observations provided by surface temperature and snow depth measurements resulting in classification accuracies of 85.7 and 83.1 % respectively. Optimal model parameter values were obtained through data assimilation of MOD10A2 snow maps and snow depth measurements using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). Independent validations of simulated snow depth and snow cover with observations show improvement after data assimilation compared to simulations without data assimilation. The approach of modeling snow depth in a Kalman filter framework allows for data-constrained estimation of snow depth rather than snow cover alone, and this has great potential for future studies in complex terrain, especially in the Himalayas. Climate sensitivity tests with the optimized snow model revealed that snowmelt runoff increases in winter and the early melt season (December to May) and decreases during the late melt season (June to September) as a result of the earlier onset of snowmelt due to increasing temperature. At high elevation a decrease in SWE due to higher air temperature is (partly) compensated by an increase in precipitation, which emphasizes the need for accurate predictions on the changes in the spatial distribution of precipitation along with changes in temperature.

Snowpack energy balance and changes in the frequency and extremity of rain-on-snow events in the warming climate

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-73 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Ondrej Hotovy ◽

Michal Jenicek

Keyword(s):

Energy Balance ◽

Air Temperature ◽

Snow Water Equivalent ◽

Hydrological Cycle ◽

Winter Season ◽

Catchment Scale ◽

The Future ◽

Snow Water ◽

The Impact ◽

Catchment Runoff

Seasonal snowpack significantly influences the catchment runoff and thus represents an important input for the hydrological cycle. Changes in the precipitation distribution and intensity, as well as a shift from snowfall to rain is expected in the future due to climate changes. As a result, rain-on-snow events, which are considered to be one of the main causes of floods in winter and spring, may occur more frequently. Heat from liquid precipitation constitutes one of the snowpack energy balance components. Consequently, snowmelt and runoff may be strongly affected by these temperature and precipitation changes.The objective of this study is 1) to evaluate the frequency, inter-annual variability and extremity of rain-on-snow events in the past based on existing measurements together with an analysis of changes in the snowpack energy balance, and 2) to simulate the effect of predicted increase in air temperature on the occurrence of rain-on-snow events in the future. We selected 40 near-natural mountain catchments in Czechia with significant snow influence on runoff and with available long-time series (>35 years) of daily hydrological and meteorological variables. A semi-distributed conceptual model, HBV-light, was used to simulate the individual components of the water cycle at a catchment scale. The model was calibrated for each of study catchments by using 100 calibration trials which resulted in respective number of optimized parameter sets. The model performance was evaluated against observed runoff and snow water equivalent. Rain-on-snow events definition by threshold values for air temperature, snow depth, rain intensity and snow water equivalent decrease allowed us to analyze inter-annual variations and trends in rain-on-snow events during the study period 1965-2019 and to explain the role of different catchment attributes.The preliminary results show that a significant change of rain-on-snow events related to increasing air temperature is not clearly evident. Since both air temperature and elevation seem to be an important rain-on-snow drivers, there is an increasing rain-on-snow events occurrence during winter season due to a decrease in snowfall fraction. In contrast, a decrease in total number of events was observed due to the shortening of the period with existing snow cover on the ground. Modelling approach also opened further questions related to model structure and parameterization, specifically how individual model procedures and parameters represent the real natural processes. To understand potential model artefacts might be important when using HBV or similar bucket-type models for impact studies, such as modelling the impact of climate change on catchment runoff.

Improving gridded snow water equivalent products in British Columbia, Canada: multi-source data fusion by neural network models

The Cryosphere ◽

10.5194/tc-12-891-2018 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 12 (3) ◽

pp. 891-905 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

Andrew M. Snauffer ◽

William W. Hsieh ◽

Alex J. Cannon ◽

Markus A. Schnorbus

Keyword(s):

Neural Network ◽

British Columbia ◽

Snow Water Equivalent ◽

Network Models ◽

Hydrologic Model ◽

Superior Performance ◽

Vegetation Density ◽

Infiltration Capacity ◽

Neural Network Models ◽

Abstract. Estimates of surface snow water equivalent (SWE) in mixed alpine environments with seasonal melts are particularly difficult in areas of high vegetation density, topographic relief, and snow accumulations. These three confounding factors dominate much of the province of British Columbia (BC), Canada. An artificial neural network (ANN) was created using as predictors six gridded SWE products previously evaluated for BC. Relevant spatiotemporal covariates were also included as predictors, and observations from manual snow surveys at stations located throughout BC were used as target data. Mean absolute errors (MAEs) and interannual correlations for April surveys were found using cross-validation. The ANN using the three best-performing SWE products (ANN3) had the lowest mean station MAE across the province. ANN3 outperformed each product as well as product means and multiple linear regression (MLR) models in all of BC's five physiographic regions except for the BC Plains. Subsequent comparisons with predictions generated by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model found ANN3 to better estimate SWE over the VIC domain and within most regions. The superior performance of ANN3 over the individual products, product means, MLR, and VIC was found to be statistically significant across the province.

Large scale snow water equivalent status monitoring: comparison of different snow water products in the upper Colorado Basin

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ◽

10.5194/hess-17-5127-2013 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 17 (12) ◽

pp. 5127-5139 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

G. A. Artan ◽

J. P. Verdin ◽

R. Lietzow

Keyword(s):

Energy Balance ◽

Water Content ◽

Snow Water Equivalent ◽

Weather Forecast ◽

Snow Accumulation ◽

Passive Microwave ◽

Data Sets ◽

Snow Water ◽

Trmm Precipitation ◽

Colorado Basin

Abstract. We illustrate the ability to monitor the status of snow water content over large areas by using a spatially distributed snow accumulation and ablation model that uses data from a weather forecast model in the upper Colorado Basin. The model was forced with precipitation fields from the National Weather Service (NWS) Multi-sensor Precipitation Estimator (MPE) and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data-sets; remaining meteorological model input data were from NOAA's Global Forecast System (GFS) model output fields. The simulated snow water equivalent (SWE) was compared to SWEs from the Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS) and SNOwpack TELemetry system (SNOTEL) over a region of the western US that covers parts of the upper Colorado Basin. We also compared the SWE product estimated from the special sensor microwave imager (SSM/I) and scanning multichannel microwave radiometer (SMMR) to the SNODAS and SNOTEL SWE data-sets. Agreement between the spatial distributions of the simulated SWE with MPE data was high with both SNODAS and SNOTEL. Model-simulated SWE with TRMM precipitation and SWE estimated from the passive microwave imagery were not significantly correlated spatially with either SNODAS or the SNOTEL SWE. Average basin-wide SWE simulated with the MPE and the TRMM data were highly correlated with both SNODAS (r = 0.94 and r = 0.64; d.f. = 14 – d.f. = degrees of freedom) and SNOTEL (r = 0.93 and r = 0.68; d.f. = 14). The SWE estimated from the passive microwave imagery was significantly correlated with the SNODAS SWE (r = 0.55, d.f. = 9, p = 0.05) but was not significantly correlated with the SNOTEL-reported SWE values (r = 0.45, d.f. = 9, p = 0.05).The results indicate the applicability of the snow energy balance model for monitoring snow water content at regional scales when coupled with meteorological data of acceptable quality. The two snow water contents from the microwave imagery (SMMR and SSM/I) and the Utah Energy Balance forced with the TRMM precipitation data were found to be unreliable sources for mapping SWE in the study area; both data sets lacked discernible variability of snow water content between sites as seen in the SNOTEL and SNODAS SWE data. This study will contribute to better understanding the adequacy of data from weather forecast models, TRMM, and microwave imagery for monitoring status of the snow water content.

Evaluation and Intercomparison of Multiple Snow Water Equivalent Products over the Tibetan Plateau

Journal of Hydrometeorology ◽

10.1175/jhm-d-19-0011.1 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 20 (10) ◽

pp. 2043-2055 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Qingyun Bian ◽

Zhongfeng Xu ◽

Long Zhao ◽

Yong-Fei Zhang ◽

Hui Zheng ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Tibetan Plateau ◽

Snow Water Equivalent ◽

Climate Model ◽

Asian Summer Monsoon ◽

Accurate Estimation ◽

The Tibetan Plateau ◽

Seasonal Forecasts ◽

Snow Condition ◽

Abstract Snow cover affects the thermal conditions of the Tibetan Plateau through snow–albedo feedback and snowmelt, which, in turn, modulates the Asian summer monsoon climate. An accurate estimation of the snow condition on the Tibetan Plateau is therefore of great importance in both seasonal forecasts and climate studies. Estimation of snow water equivalent (SWE) over the Tibetan Plateau is challenging due to the high altitude, complex terrain, and insufficient in situ observations. Multiple SWE products derived from satellite estimates, reanalyses, regional climate model simulations, and land data assimilations are intercompared in terms of daily, seasonal, and annual variations and are then evaluated against in situ SWE observations. The results show a relatively consistent seasonal to interannual variability of the SWE estimates among the products. The discrepancies in magnitude are large, however, especially in winter and spring. Evaluation against in situ SWE observations indicates that none of these products is capable of accurately characterizing both the spatial pattern and temporal variations.

Assimilation of AMSR-E snow water equivalent data in a spatially-lumped snow model

Journal of Hydrology ◽

10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.05.046 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 540 ◽

pp. 26-39 ◽

Cited By ~ 13

Author(s):

David J. Dziubanski ◽

Kristie J. Franz

Keyword(s):

Snow Water Equivalent ◽

Snow Water ◽

Towards a long term global snow climate data record from satellite data generated within the Snow Climate Change Initiative

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-19228 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Gabriele Schwaizer ◽

Lars Keuris ◽

Thomas Nagler ◽

Chris Derksen ◽

Kari Luojus ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Satellite Data ◽

Snow Water Equivalent ◽

Climate Model ◽

Process Models ◽

Climate Data ◽

Seasonal Snow ◽

Seasonal snow is an important component of the global climate system. It is highly variable in space and time and sensitive to short term synoptic scale processes and long term climate-induced changes of temperature and precipitation. Current snow products derived from various satellite data applying different algorithms show significant discrepancies in extent and snow mass, a potential source for biases in climate monitoring and modelling. The recently launched ESA CCI+ Programme addresses seasonal snow as one of 9 Essential Climate Variables to be derived from satellite data.In the snow_cci project, scheduled for 2018 to 2021 in its first phase, reliable fully validated processing lines are developed and implemented. These tools are used to generate homogeneous multi-sensor time series for the main parameters of global snow cover focusing on snow extent and snow water equivalent. Using GCOS guidelines, the requirements for these parameters are assessed and consolidated using the outcome of workshops and questionnaires addressing users dealing with different climate applications. Snow extent product generation applies algorithms accounting for fractional snow extent and cloud screening in order to generate consistent daily products for snow on the surface (viewable snow) and snow on the surface corrected for forest masking (snow on ground) with global coverage. Input data are medium resolution optical satellite images (AVHRR-2/3, AATSR, MODIS, VIIRS, SLSTR/OLCI) from 1981 to present. An iterative development cycle is applied including homogenisation of the snow extent products from different sensors by minimizing the bias. Independent validation of the snow products is performed for different seasons and climate zones around the globe from 1985 onwards, using as reference high resolution snow maps from Landsat and Sentinel- 2as well as in-situ snow data following standardized validation protocols.Global time series of daily snow water equivalent (SWE) products are generated from passive microwave data from SMMR, SSM/I, and AMSR from 1978 onwards, combined with in-situ snow depth measurements. Long-term stability and quality of the product is assessed using independent snow survey data and by intercomparison with the snow information from global land process models.The usability of the snow_cci products is ensured through the Climate Research Group, which performs case studies related to long term trends of seasonal snow, performs evaluations of CMIP-6 and other snow-focused climate model experiments, and applies the data for simulation of Arctic hydrological regimes.In this presentation, we summarize the requirements and product specifications for the snow extent and SWE products, with a focus on climate applications. We present an overview of the algorithms and systems for generation of the time series. The 40 years (from 1980 onwards) time series of daily fractional snow extent products from AVHRR with 5 km pixel spacing, and the 20-year time series from MODIS (1 km pixel spacing) as well as the coarse resolution (25 km pixel spacing) of daily SWE products from 1978 onwards will be presented along with first results of the multi-sensor consistency checks and validation activities.

A Process-Based Energy Balance Snowmelt Model II: Application

Advanced Materials Research ◽

10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.726-731.3346 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 726-731 ◽

pp. 3346-3352

Author(s):

Gao Jie

Keyword(s):

Energy Balance ◽

Snow Water Equivalent ◽

Sensible Heat Flux ◽

Colorado Front Range ◽

Wave Radiation ◽

Snow Pack ◽

Front Range ◽

Snow Density ◽

Column Model ◽

Based on the process-based energy balance snow melting model Snow Column Model, several scenarios are set to study the response of snow pack to climate change according to site-based data in snowpit 006, Niwot Ridge, Colorado, Front Range of Rocky Mountains. Based on an introduction and validation of Snow Column Model by data of 1996, a further validation is made on data during 1997 and 1999. Scenarios are set based on observations of solar radiation, long-wave radiation, air temperature, latent and sensible heat flux during 1996 and 1999. The responses of snow pack to an average temperature fluctuation within 6.2°C are analyzed. The results illustrate that snow density and snow water equivalent accelerated decreases while the variance in snow density does not increase monotonically over time.

The role of liquid water percolation representation to estimate snow water equivalent in a Mediterranean mountain region (Mount Lebanon)

10.5194/hess-2019-514 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Abbas Fayad ◽

Simon Gascoin

Keyword(s):

Snow Cover ◽

Liquid Water ◽

Snow Depth ◽

Snow Water Equivalent ◽

Mountain Regions ◽

Snow Cover Area ◽

Water Percolation ◽

Snow Water ◽

Snow Model ◽

Snow Mass

Abstract. In many Mediterranean mountain regions, the seasonal snowpack is an essential yet poorly known water resource. Here, we examine, for the first time, the spatial distribution and evolution of the snow water equivalent (SWE) during three snow seasons (2013–2016) in the coastal mountains of Lebanon. We run SnowModel (Liston and Elder, 2006a), a spatially-distributed, process-based snow model, at 100 m resolution forced by new automatic weather station (AWS) data in three snow-dominated basins of Mount Lebanon. We evaluate a recent upgrade of the liquid water percolation scheme in SnowModel, which was introduced to improve the simulation of the snow water equivalent (SWE) and runoff in warm maritime regions. The model is evaluated against continuous snow depth and snow albedo observations at the AWS, manual SWE measurements, and MODIS snow cover area between 1200 m and 3000 m a.s.l.. The results show that the new percolation scheme yields better performance especially in terms of SWE but also in snow depth and snow cover area. Over the simulation period between 2013 and 2016, the maximum snow mass was reached between December and March. Peak mean SWE (above 1200 m a.s.l.) changed significantly from year to year in the three study catchments with values ranging between 73 mm and 286 mm we (RMSE between 160 and 260 mm w.e.). We suggest that the major sources of uncertainty in simulating the SWE, in this warm Mediterranean climate, can be attributed to forcing error but also to our limited understanding of the separation between rain and snow at lower-elevations, the transient snow melt events during the accumulation season, and the high-variability of snow depth patterns at the sub-pixel scale due to the wind-driven blown-snow redistribution into karstic features and sinkholes. Yet, the use of a process-based snow model with minimal requirements for parameter estimation provides a basis to simulate snow mass SWE in non-monitored catchments and characterize the contribution of snowmelt to the karstic groundwater recharge in Lebanon. While this research focused on three basins in the Mount Lebanon, it serves as a case study to highlight the importance of wet snow processes to estimate SWE in Mediterranean mountain regions.