Moored Observations of Currents and Water Mass Properties between Talaud and Halmahera Islands at the Entrance of the Indonesian Seas

2021 ◽  
Vol 51 (12) ◽  
pp. 3557-3572

AbstractThe currents and water mass properties at the Pacific entrance of the Indonesian seas are studied using measurements of three subsurface moorings deployed between the Talaud and Halmahera Islands. The moored current meter data show northeastward mean currents toward the Pacific Ocean in the upper 400 m during the nearly 2-yr mooring period, with the maximum velocity in the northern part of the channel. The mean transport between 60- and 300-m depths is estimated to be 10.1–13.2 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) during 2016–17, when all three moorings have measurements. The variability of the along-channel velocity is dominated by low-frequency signals (periods > 150 days), with northeastward variations in boreal winter and southwestward variations in summer in the superposition of the annual and semiannual harmonics. The current variations evidence the seasonal movement of the Mindanao Current retroflection, which is supported by satellite sea level and ocean color data, showing a cyclonic intrusion into the northern Maluku Sea in boreal winter whereas a leaping path occurs north of the Talaud Islands in summer. During Apri–July, the moored CTDs near 200 m show southwestward currents carrying the salty South Pacific Tropical Water into the Maluku Sea.

2010 ◽  
Vol 138 (11) ◽  
pp. 4026-4034 ◽  
Author(s):  
David M. Straus

Abstract A method to incorporate synoptic eddies into the diagnosis of circulation regimes using cluster analysis is illustrated using boreal winter reanalyses of the National Centers of Environmental Prediction (hereafter observations) over the Pacific–North American region. The motivation is to include the configuration of the high-frequency (periods less than 10 days) transients as well as the low-frequency (periods greater than 10 days) flow explicitly into the definition of the regimes. Principle component analysis is applied to the low-frequency 200-hPa height field, and also to the low-frequency “envelope” modulations of the rms of high-frequency meridional velocity at 200 hPa. A maximum covariance analysis of the height and envelope fields, carried out using the appropriate principal components, defines three modes as explaining most of the covariance. This defines the minimum dimensionality of the space in which to apply k-means cluster analysis to the covariance coefficients. Clusters found using this method agree with results of the previous work. Significance is assessed by comparing cluster analyses with results from synthetic datasets that have the same spectral amplitudes (but random phases) of seasonal means and, separately, intraseasonal fluctuations as do the original observed time series. This procedure ensures that the synthetic series have similar autocovariance structures to the observations. Building on earlier work, the clusters obtained are newly tested to be highly significant without the need for quasi-stationary prefiltering.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steingrímur Jónsson

<p>The temperature in the Atlantic waters south of Iceland has increased by about 1°C since 1995 with most of the rise occurring before 2000. A similar rise in air temperature in Iceland was observed simultaneously and the rise in temperature is often interpreted as being caused by global warming. Many effects of this in the ocean and on land such as changed distribution of marine species in the area as well as melting of glaciers in Iceland have been attributed to this rising temperature. However, it is unlikely that this rapid increase in temperature was solely due to global warming, especially since it was accompanied by an increase in salinity. It is more likely that there was a change in the ocean circulation in the area leading to more sub-tropical water entering the sub-polar gyre causing a shift in temperature and salinity. A similar increase in temperature and salinity was observed earlier during 1930-1964 in this area. Between the two warm periods the waters were dominated by lower temperature and salinity. These changes have been related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. By comparing the water mass properties in the two warm periods it is possible to estimate the relative contribution from natural variability and global warming for the recent warm period. It will be shown how the retreat and advancing of glaciers in Iceland are in harmony with the changes in water mass properties in the waters south of Iceland. It is important that decisions about how to adapt to coming climate change are based on how much of the observed change is due to natural variability and global warming respectively. This is a method that can be used in other areas of the northern North Atlantic.</p>


2020 ◽  
Vol 148 (4) ◽  
pp. 1553-1565 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carl J. Schreck ◽  
Matthew A. Janiga ◽  
Stephen Baxter

Abstract This study applies Fourier filtering to a combination of rainfall estimates from TRMM and forecasts from the CFSv2. The combined data are filtered for low-frequency (LF, ≥120 days) variability, the MJO, and convectively coupled equatorial waves. The filtering provides insight into the sources of skill for the CFSv2. The LF filter, which encapsulates persistent anomalies generally corresponding with SSTs, has the largest contribution to forecast skill beyond week 2. Variability within the equatorial Pacific is dominated by its response to ENSO, such that both the unfiltered and the LF-filtered forecasts are skillful over the Pacific through the entire 45-day CFSv2 forecast. In fact, the LF forecasts in that region are more skillful than the unfiltered forecasts or any combination of the filters. Verifying filtered against unfiltered observations shows that subseasonal variability has very little opportunity to contribute to skill over the equatorial Pacific. Any subseasonal variability produced by the model is actually detracting from the skill there. The MJO primarily contributes to CFSv2 skill over the Indian Ocean, particularly during March–May and MJO phases 2–5. However, the model misses opportunities for the MJO to contribute to skill in other regions. Convectively coupled equatorial Rossby waves contribute to skill over the Indian Ocean during December–February and the Atlantic Ocean during September–November. Convectively coupled Kelvin waves show limited potential skill for predicting weekly averaged rainfall anomalies since they explain a relatively small percent of the observed variability.


Nature ◽  
1996 ◽  
Vol 379 (6561) ◽  
pp. 146-149 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arnold L. Gordon ◽  
Rana A. Fine
Keyword(s):  

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (14) ◽  
pp. 3855-3873 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexey V. Fedorov

Abstract Physical processes that control ENSO are relatively fast. For instance, it takes only several months for a Kelvin wave to cross the Pacific basin (Tk ≈ 2 months), while Rossby waves travel the same distance in about half a year. Compared to such short time scales, the typical periodicity of El Niño is much longer (T ≈ 2–7 yr). Thus, ENSO is fundamentally a low-frequency phenomenon in the context of these faster processes. Here, the author takes advantage of this fact and uses the smallness of the ratio ɛk = Tk/T to expand solutions of the ocean shallow-water equations into power series (the actual parameter of expansion also includes the oceanic damping rate). Using such an expansion, referred to here as the low-frequency approximation, the author relates thermocline depth anomalies to temperature variations in the eastern equatorial Pacific via an explicit integral operator. This allows a simplified formulation of ENSO dynamics based on an integro-differential equation. Within this formulation, the author shows how the interplay between wind stress curl and oceanic damping rates affects 1) the amplitude and periodicity of El Niño and 2) the phase lag between variations in the equatorial warm water volume and SST in the eastern Pacific. A simple analytical expression is derived for the phase lag. Further, applying the low-frequency approximation to the observed variations in SST, the author computes thermocline depth anomalies in the western and eastern equatorial Pacific to show a good agreement with the observed variations in warm water volume. Ultimately, this approach provides a rigorous framework for deriving other simple models of ENSO (the delayed and recharge oscillators), highlights the limitations of such models, and can be easily used for decadal climate variability in the Pacific.


2011 ◽  
Vol 116 (C12) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mélanie Grenier ◽  
Sophie Cravatte ◽  
Bruno Blanke ◽  
Christophe Menkes ◽  
Ariane Koch-Larrouy ◽  
...  

2010 ◽  
Vol 67 (10) ◽  
pp. 3097-3112 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katrina S. Virts ◽  
John M. Wallace

Abstract Cloud fields based on the first three years of data from the Cloud–Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) mission are used to investigate the relationship between cirrus within the tropical tropopause transition layer (TTL) and the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), the annual cycle, and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The TTL cirrus signature observed in association with the MJO resembles convectively induced, mixed Kelvin–Rossby wave solutions above the Pacific warm pool region. This signature is centered to the east of the peak convection and propagates eastward more rapidly than the convection; it exhibits a pronounced eastward tilt with height, suggestive of downward phase propagation and upward energy dispersion. A cirrus maximum is observed over equatorial Africa and South America when the enhanced MJO-related convection enters the western Pacific. Tropical-mean TTL cirrus is modulated by the MJO, with more than twice as much TTL cirrus fractional coverage equatorward of 10° latitude when the enhanced convection enters the Pacific than a few weeks earlier, when the convection is over the Indian Ocean. The annual cycle in cirrus clouds around the base of the TTL is equatorially asymmetric, with more cirrus observed in the summer hemisphere. Higher in the TTL, the annual cycle in cirrus clouds is more equatorially symmetric, with a maximum in the boreal winter throughout most of the tropics. The ENSO signature in TTL cirrus is marked by a zonal shift of the peak cloudiness toward the central Pacific during El Niño and toward the Maritime Continent during La Niña.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sem Vijverberg ◽  
Dim Coumou

<p>Heatwaves can have devastating impact on society and reliable early warnings at several weeks lead time are needed. Heatwaves are often associated with quasi-stationary Rossby waves, which interact with sea surface temperature (SST). Previous studies showed that north-Pacific SST can provide long-lead predictability for eastern U.S. temperature, moderated by an atmospheric Rossby wave. The exact mechanisms, however, are not well understood. Here we analyze Rossby waves associated with heatwaves in western and eastern US. Causal inference analyses reveal that both waves are characterized by positive ocean-atmosphere feedbacks at synoptic timescales, amplifying the waves. However, this positive feedback on short timescales is not the causal mechanism that leads to a long-lead SST signal. Only the eastern US shows a long-lead causal link from SSTs to the Rossby wave. We show that the long-lead SST signal derives from low-frequency PDO variability, providing the source of eastern US temperature predictability. We use this improved physical understanding to identify more reliable long-lead predictions. When, at the onset of summer, the Pacific is in a pronounced PDO phase, the SST signal is expected to persist throughout summer. These summers are characterized by a stronger ocean-boundary forcing, thereby more than doubling the eastern US temperature forecast skill, providing a temporary window of enhanced predictability.</p>


1976 ◽  
Vol 59 (3) ◽  
pp. 700-702 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. H. Mellen ◽  
D. G. Browning

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