scholarly journals Kelvin Waves and Tropical Cyclogenesis: A Global Survey

2015 ◽  
Vol 143 (10) ◽  
pp. 3996-4011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carl J. Schreck
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Kelvin Waves ◽  
Wave Crest ◽  
Tropical Cyclogenesis ◽  
Kelvin Wave ◽  
Easterly Waves ◽  
Easterly Wave ◽  
Show Evidence ◽  
Wave Passage

Abstract Convectively coupled atmospheric Kelvin waves are among the most prominent sources of synoptic-scale rainfall variability in the tropics, but large uncertainties surround their role in tropical cyclogenesis. This study identifies the modulation of tropical cyclones relative to the passage of a Kelvin wave’s peak rainfall (i.e., its crest) in each basin. Tropical cyclogenesis is generally inhibited for 3 days before the crest and enhanced for 3 days afterward. Composites of storms forming in the most favorable lags illustrate the dynamical impacts of the waves. In most basins, the tropical cyclone actually forms during the convectively suppressed phase of the wave. The 850-hPa equatorial westerly anomalies provide the cyclonic vorticity for the nascent storm, and 200-hPa easterly anomalies enhance the outflow. The wind anomalies persist at both levels longer than the Kelvin wave’s period and are often related to the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). The onset of these wind anomalies occurs with the Kelvin wave passage, while the MJO apparently establishes their duration. Many of the composites also show evidence of an easterly wave from which the tropical cyclone develops. The composite easterly wave amplifies or even initiates within the Kelvin wave crest. These results show the importance of Kelvin waves interacting with the MJO and easterly waves during tropical cyclogenesis. Given that Kelvin waves often circumnavigate the globe, these results show promise for long-range forecasting of tropical cyclogenesis in all basins.

scholarly journals Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves and Tropical Cyclogenesis in a Semi-Lagrangian Framework

2016 ◽  
Vol 144 (11) ◽  
pp. 4131-4139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carl J. Schreck
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Phase Speed ◽  
Kelvin Waves ◽  
Tropical Cyclogenesis ◽  
Kelvin Wave ◽  
Easterly Waves ◽  
The North ◽  
Lagrangian Framework ◽  
Easterly Wave ◽  
Vertically Aligned

Abstract This study examines how convectively coupled Kelvin waves interact with the semi-Lagrangian circulation of easterly waves to modulate tropical cyclogenesis. Recent studies have shown that fewer tropical cyclones form in the three days before passage of the Kelvin wave’s peak convection and more develop in the three days thereafter. Separately, other studies have identified the recirculation of moisture and vorticity within easterly waves using a semi-Lagrangian frame of reference. That framework is achieved by subtracting the easterly wave phase speed from the earth-relative winds. This study combines these recent findings by testing whether the equatorial westerlies from Kelvin waves can help close the semi-Lagrangian circulation. Past studies have shown that Kelvin waves tilt westward with height in the troposphere such that equatorial westerlies build upward from the surface in the days following the convective peak. This study shows that the easterly wave’s semi-Lagrangian closed circulation grows upward as it intersects the Kelvin wave’s westward tilt. The Kelvin wave’s westerly anomalies reach 500 hPa about three days after the convection has passed, which establishes the deep, vertically aligned easterly wave vortex necessary for tropical cyclogenesis. This study focuses on the eastern Pacific, but similar results are found for the North Atlantic. In other basins, the Kelvin wave accentuates the westerlies from the Madden–Julian oscillation and/or the monsoon trough. Given that Kelvin waves often last weeks and circumnavigate the globe, these results may advance long-range tropical cyclogenesis forecasting.

Tropical Cyclogenesis Associated with Kelvin Waves and the Madden–Julian Oscillation

2011 ◽  
Vol 139 (9) ◽  
pp. 2723-2734 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carl J. Schreck ◽  
John Molinari
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Diabatic Heating ◽  
Kelvin Waves ◽  
Tropical Cyclogenesis ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Convective Envelope

The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) influences tropical cyclone formation around the globe. Convectively coupled Kelvin waves are often embedded within the MJO, but their role in tropical cyclogenesis remains uncertain. This case study identifies the influences of the MJO and a series of Kelvin waves on the formation of two tropical cyclones. Typhoons Rammasun and Chataan developed in the western North Pacific on 28 June 2002. Two weeks earlier, conditions had been unfavorable for tropical cyclogenesis because of uniform trade easterlies and a lack of organized convection. The easterlies gave way to equatorial westerlies as the convective envelope of the Madden–Julian oscillation moved into the region. A series of three Kelvin waves modulated the development of the westerlies. Cyclonic potential vorticity (PV) developed in a strip between the growing equatorial westerlies and the persistent trade easterlies farther poleward. Rammasun and Chataan emerged from the apparent breakdown of this strip. The cyclonic PV developed in association with diabatic heating from both the MJO and the Kelvin waves. The tropical cyclones also developed during the largest superposition of equatorial westerlies from the MJO and the Kelvin waves. This chain of events suggests that the MJO and the Kelvin waves each played a role in the development of Rammasun and Chataan.

Potential Vorticity Accumulation Following Atmospheric Kelvin Waves in the Active Convective Region of the MJO

2012 ◽  
Vol 69 (3) ◽  
pp. 908-914 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyle MacRitchie ◽  
Paul E. Roundy
Keyword(s):  
Potential Vorticity ◽  
Rain Rate ◽  
Diabatic Heating ◽  
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission ◽  
Kelvin Waves ◽  
Kelvin Wave ◽  
Total Rainfall ◽  
Cloud Clusters ◽  
Wave Passage ◽  
Active Convection

Abstract Previous works have shown that most of the rainfall embedded within the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) occurs in large eastward-moving envelopes of enhanced convection known as super cloud clusters. Many of these superclusters have been identified as convectively coupled Kelvin waves. In this work, a simple composite-averaging technique diagnoses the linear and nonlinear contributions to MJO potential vorticity (PV) structure by convection collocated with Kelvin waves. Results demonstrate that PV is generated coincident with active convection in Kelvin waves, but that this PV remains in the environment after Kelvin wave passage and becomes part of the structure of the MJO. Analysis of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) rainfall suggests that 62% of the total rainfall within the MJO occurs within the active convective phases of the Kelvin waves (88% higher than the rain rate that occurs outside of the Kelvin waves), supporting the hypothesis that diabatic heating in cloud clusters embedded within the Kelvin waves generates this PV.

scholarly journals Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenesis: A Three-Way Interaction between an African Easterly Wave, Diurnally Varying Convection, and a Convectively Coupled Atmospheric Kelvin Wave

2012 ◽  
Vol 140 (4) ◽  
pp. 1108-1124 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael J. Ventrice ◽  
Christopher D. Thorncroft ◽  
Matthew A. Janiga
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Diurnal Cycle ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Active Phase ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Tropical Cyclogenesis ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
Kelvin Wave ◽  
African Easterly Wave ◽  
Easterly Wave

This paper explores a three-way interaction between an African easterly wave (AEW), the diurnal cycle of convection over the Guinea Highlands (GHs), and a convectively coupled atmospheric equatorial Kelvin wave (CCKW). These interactions resulted in the genesis of Tropical Storm Debby over the eastern tropical Atlantic during late August 2006. The diurnal cycle of convection downstream of the GHs during the month of August is explored. Convection associated with the coherent diurnal cycle is observed off the coast of West Africa during the morning. Later, convection initiates over and downstream of the GHs during the afternoon. These convective features were pronounced during the passage of the pre-Debby AEW. The superposition between the convectively active phase of a strong CCKW and the pre-Debby AEW occurred shortly after merging with the diurnally varying convection downstream of the GHs. The CCKW–AEW interaction preceded tropical cyclogenesis by 18 h. The CCKW provided a favorable environment for deep convection. An analysis of high-amplitude CCKWs over the tropical Atlantic and West Africa during the Northern Hemisphere boreal summer (1979–2009) highlights a robust relationship between CCKWs and the frequency of tropical cyclogenesis. Tropical cyclogenesis is found to be less frequent immediately prior to the passage of the convectively active phase of the CCKW, more frequent during the passage, and most frequent just after the passage.

scholarly journals The Madden–Julian Oscillation’s Influence on African Easterly Waves and Downstream Tropical Cyclogenesis

2011 ◽  
Vol 139 (9) ◽  
pp. 2704-2722 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael J. Ventrice ◽  
Chris D. Thorncroft ◽  
Paul E. Roundy
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Tropical Cyclogenesis ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
African Easterly Waves ◽  
Tropical Africa ◽  
Easterly Waves ◽  
African Easterly Wave ◽  
Easterly Wave ◽  
Equatorial Rossby Waves

The influence of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) over tropical Africa and Atlantic is explored during the Northern Hemisphere summer months. The MJO is assessed by using real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) indices. These indices divide the active convective signal of the MJO into 8 phases. Convection associated with the MJO is enhanced over tropical Africa during RMM phases 8, 1, and 2. Convection becomes suppressed over tropical Africa during the subsequent RMM phases (phases 3–7). African convective signals are associated with westward-propagating equatorial Rossby waves. The MJO modulates African easterly wave (AEW) activity. AEW activity is locally enhanced during RMM phases 1–3 and suppressed during RMM phases 6–8. Enhanced AEW activity occurs during periods of enhanced convection over tropical Africa, consistent with stronger or more frequent triggering of AEWs as well as more growth associated with latent heat release. Enhanced AEW activity occurs during the low-level westerly wind phase of the MJO, which increases the cyclonic shear on the equatorward side of the AEJ, increasing its instability. Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis frequency varies coherently with the MJO. RMM phases 1–3 show the greatest frequency of tropical cyclogenesis events whereas phases 7 and 8 show the least. RMM phase 2 is also the most likely phase to be associated with a train of three or more tropical cyclones over the tropical Atlantic. This observed evolution of tropical cyclogenesis frequency varies coherently with variations in AEW activity and the large-scale environment.

scholarly journals Evaluating Tropical Cyclone Forecasts from the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecasting System (GEFS) Reforecast Version 2

2016 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 895-916 ◽  
Author(s):  
Weiwei Li ◽  
Zhuo Wang ◽  
Melinda S. Peng
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Ensemble Forecasting ◽  
Tropical Cyclogenesis ◽  
Easterly Waves ◽  
The North ◽  
Forecasting System

Abstract Tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts from the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecasting System (GEFS) Reforecast version 2 (1985–2012) were evaluated from the climate perspective, with a focus on tropical cyclogenesis. Although the GEFS captures the climatological seasonality of tropical cyclogenesis over different ocean basins reasonably well, large errors exist on the regional scale. As different genesis pathways are dominant over different ocean basins, genesis biases are related to biases in different aspects of the large-scale or synoptic-scale circulations over different basins. The negative genesis biases over the western North Pacific are associated with a weaker-than-observed monsoon trough in the GEFS, the erroneous genesis pattern over the eastern North Pacific is related to a southward displacement of the ITCZ, and the positive genesis biases near the Cape Verde islands and negative biases farther downstream over the Atlantic can be attributed to the hyperactive Africa easterly waves in the GEFS. The interannual and subseasonal variability of TC activity in the reforecasts was also examined to evaluate the potential skill of the GEFS in providing subseasonal and seasonal predictions. The GEFS skillfully captures the interannual variability of TC activity over the North Pacific and the North Atlantic, which can be attributed to the modulation of TCs by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic meridional mode (AMM). The GEFS shows promising skill in predicting the active and inactive periods of TC activity over the Atlantic. The skill, however, has large fluctuations from year to year. The analysis presented herein suggests possible impacts of ENSO, the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), and the AMM on the TC subseasonal predictability.

Application of the Marsupial Paradigm to Tropical Cyclone Formation from Northwestward-Propagating Disturbances

2012 ◽  
Vol 140 (1) ◽  
pp. 66-76 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhuo Wang ◽  
Timothy J. Dunkerton ◽  
Michael T. Montgomery
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Trajectory Analysis ◽  
Propagation Speed ◽  
Frame Of Reference ◽  
Tropical Cyclogenesis ◽  
Model Data ◽  
Western Atlantic ◽  
Easterly Waves ◽  
Propagating Waves ◽  
Lagrangian Flow

Abstract A wave-tracking algorithm is developed for northwestward-propagating waves that, on occasion, play a role in tropical cyclogenesis over the western oceans. To obtain the Lagrangian flow structure, the frame of reference is translated obliquely at the same propagation speed with the precursor disturbance. Trajectory analysis suggests that streamlines in the obliquely translated frame of reference can be used to approximate flow trajectories. The algorithm was applied to Super Typhoon Nakri (2008), Tropical Cyclone Erika (2009), and a few other examples. Diagnoses of meteorological analyses and satellite-derived moisture and precipitation fields show that the marsupial framework for tropical cyclogenesis in tropical easterly waves is relevant also for northwestward-propagating disturbances as are commonly observed in the tropical western Atlantic, the Gulf of Mexico, and the western North Pacific. Finally, it is suggested that analysis of the global model data and satellite observations in the marsupial framework can provide useful guidance on early tropical cyclone advisories.

scholarly journals On the Dynamics of the Formation of the Kelvin Cat’s-Eye in Tropical Cyclogenesis. Part I: Climatological Investigation

2016 ◽  
Vol 73 (6) ◽  
pp. 2317-2338 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali Asaadi ◽  
Gilbert Brunet ◽  
M. K. Yau
Keyword(s):  
Time Scale ◽  
Critical Layer ◽  
Tropical Cyclogenesis ◽  
Bootstrap Analysis ◽  
Easterly Waves ◽  
Easterly Wave ◽  
Diabatic Processes ◽  
Time Lagged ◽  
Eye Formation ◽  
Pv Gradient

Abstract Motivated by Dunkerton et al., a climatological study of 54 developing easterly waves in 1998–2001 was performed. Time-lagged composites in a translating reference frame following the disturbances indicate a weak meridional potential vorticity (PV) gradient of the easterly jet and a cyclonic critical layer located slightly to the south of the weak PV gradient, consistent with previous findings in the marsupial paradigm. Using a closed PV contour as a criterion for the formation of the cat’s-eye, it was shown that on average it takes ~2.6 days for open PV contours to transform to a closed coherent structure. Bootstrap analysis was then applied to determine the reliability of the easterly wave–like pattern in the composite perturbation PV analysis. It is suggested that the coexistence of a nonlinear critical layer and a region of weak meridional PV gradient over several days, found to occur in only ~25% of the easterly waves, might be a major factor to distinguish developing and nondeveloping disturbances. This finding may explain why only a small fraction of easterly waves contribute to tropical cyclogenesis. Additionally, an analytic time scale of the form was obtained, where Q is the mass sink, ε is the amplitude of the initial disturbance, and τ is the cat’s-eye formation time that governs the onset of nonlinearity for forced disturbances on a parabolic jet critical layer. This time scale is consistent with that found in 54 cases of easterly waves that developed into named storms, highlighting the importance of nonlinear and diabatic processes in cat’s-eye formation.

Energetics of Interactions between African Easterly Waves and Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves

2021 ◽  
Vol 149 (11) ◽  
pp. 3821-3835
Author(s):  
Rama Sesha Sridhar Mantripragada ◽  
C. J. Schreck III ◽  
Anantha Aiyyer
Keyword(s):  
Kinetic Energy ◽  
Energy Conversion ◽  
Kelvin Waves ◽  
Energy Budgets ◽  
African Easterly Waves ◽  
Kelvin Wave ◽  
Easterly Waves ◽  
Available Energy ◽  
Barotropic Energy Conversion ◽  
Baroclinic Energy Conversion

Abstract Perturbation kinetic and available energy budgets are used to explore how convectively coupled equatorial Kelvin waves (KWs) impact African easterly wave (AEW) activity. The convective phase of the Kelvin wave increases the African easterly jet’s meridional shear, thus enhancing the barotropic energy conversions, leading to intensification of southern track AEWs perturbation kinetic energy. In contrast, the barotropic energy conversion is reduced in the suppressed phase of KW. Baroclinic energy conversion of the southern track AEWs is not significantly different between Kelvin waves’ convective and suppressed phases. AEWs in the convective phase of a Kelvin wave have stronger perturbation available potential energy generation by diabatic heating and stronger baroclinic overturning circulations than in the suppressed phase of a Kelvin wave. These differences suggest that southern track AEWs within the convective phase of Kelvin waves have more vigorous convection than in the suppressed phase of Kelvin waves. Barotropic energy conversion of the northern track AEWs is not significantly different between Kelvin waves’ convective and suppressed phases. The convective phase of the Kelvin wave increases the lower-tropospheric meridional temperature gradient north of the African easterly jet, thus enhancing the baroclinic energy conversion, leading to intensification of northern track AEWs perturbation kinetic energy. In contrast, the baroclinic energy conversion is reduced in the suppressed phase of KW. These results provide a physical basis for the modulation of AEWs by Kelvin waves arriving from upstream.

A First Look at the Structure of the Wave Pouch during the 2009 PREDICT–GRIP Dry Runs over the Atlantic

2012 ◽  
Vol 140 (4) ◽  
pp. 1144-1163 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhuo Wang ◽  
Michael T. Montgomery ◽  
Cody Fritz
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Vertical Shear ◽  
Recirculation Region ◽  
Necessary Condition ◽  
Tropical Cyclogenesis ◽  
Sufficient Condition ◽  
Easterly Waves ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Formation

In support of the National Science Foundation Pre-Depression Investigation of Cloud-systems in the tropics (NSF PREDICT) and National Aeronautics and Space Administration Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (NASA GRIP) dry run exercises and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Hurricane Intensity Forecast Experiment (NOAA IFEX) during the 2009 hurricane season, a real-time wave-tracking algorithm and corresponding diagnostic analyses based on a recently proposed tropical cyclogenesis model were applied to tropical easterly waves over the Atlantic. The model emphasizes the importance of a Lagrangian recirculation region within a tropical-wave critical layer (the so-called pouch), where persistent deep convection and vorticity aggregation as well as column moistening are favored for tropical cyclogenesis. Distinct scenarios of hybrid wave–vortex evolution are highlighted. It was found that easterly waves without a pouch or with a shallow pouch did not develop. Although not all waves with a deep pouch developed into a tropical storm, a deep wave pouch had formed prior to genesis for all 16 named storms originating from monochromatic easterly waves during the 2008 and 2009 seasons. On the other hand, the diagnosis of two nondeveloping waves with a deep pouch suggests that strong vertical shear or dry air intrusion at the middle–upper levels (where a wave pouch was absent) can disrupt deep convection and suppress storm development. To sum up, this study suggests that a deep wave pouch extending from the midtroposphere (~600–700 hPa) down to the boundary layer is a necessary condition for tropical cyclone formation within an easterly wave. It is hypothesized also that a deep wave pouch together with other large-scale favorable conditions provides a sufficient condition for sustained convection and tropical cyclone formation. This hypothesized sufficient condition requires further testing and will be pursued in future work.

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