Similar Predictive Accuracy of the Static-99R Risk Tool for White, Black, and Hispanic Sex Offenders in California

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (9) ◽  
pp. 1125-1140 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seung C. Lee ◽  
R. Karl Hanson
Keyword(s):  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Ethnic Groups ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Cultural Bias ◽  
Recidivism Rates ◽  
Assessment Procedures

Although considerable research has found overall moderate predictive validity of Static-99R, a sex offender risk prediction tool, relatively little research has addressed its potential for cultural bias. This prospective study evaluated the predictive validity of Static-99R across the three major ethnic groups (White, n = 789; Black, n = 466; Hispanic, n = 719) in the state of California. Static-99R was able to discriminate recidivists from nonrecidivists among White, Black, and Hispanic sex offenders (all area under the curve [AUC] values >.70; odds ratios >1.39). Base rates (at a Static-99R score of 2) with a fixed 5-year follow-up across ethnic groups were very similar (2.4%-3.0%) but were significantly lower than the norms (5.6%). The current findings support the use of Static-99R in risk assessment procedures for sex offenders of White, Black, and Hispanic heritage, but it should be used with caution in estimating absolute sexual recidivism rates, particularly for Hispanic sex offenders.

A Preliminary Analysis of Sexual Recidivism and Predictive Validity of the Static-99R in Men Discharged From State Hospitals Pursuant to California’s Sexually Violent Predator Act

Sexual Abuse ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 107906322110197
Author(s):  
Allen Azizian ◽  
Mark E. Olver ◽  
James Rokop ◽  
Deirdre M. D’Orazio
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Sexual Offense ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Recidivism Rates ◽  
Sexually Violent Predator ◽  
State Hospitals ◽  
Sexually Violent ◽  
General Recidivism

We examined the recidivism rates and the predictive validity of the Static-99R in 335 men who were detained or civilly committed and released from California State Hospitals pursuant to the Sexually Violent Predator (SVP) Act, and followed up for approximately 21 years from date of hospital admission. In all, 8.7% were arrested or convicted for a new sexual offense during the total follow-up ( N = 335) and 7.8% over a fixed 5-year follow-up ( n = 205). The Static-99R demonstrated small in magnitude discrimination for sexual, violent, and general recidivism (area under the curve [AUC]/C = .56 to .63). Calibration analyses, conducted through expected/observed (E/O) index, demonstrated that the Static-99R overpredicted sexual recidivism, irrespective of whether the Routine or High Risk/Need norms were used. Observed recidivism rates were lower than predicted by Static-99R scores and may be the result of the sample’s older age at release, lengthy hospitalization, or other factors.

Using Logistic Regression Modeling to Predict Sexual Recidivism

Sexual Abuse ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 350-377 ◽  
Author(s):  
Grant Duwe ◽  
Pamela J. Freske
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Recidivism Rates ◽  
Contemporary Sample ◽  
Sex Offender Risk Assessment ◽  
Likelihood Model ◽  
High Level

This study presents the results from efforts to revise the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool–Revised (MnSOST-R), one of the most widely used sex offender risk-assessment tools. The updated instrument, the MnSOST-3, contains nine individual items, six of which are new. The population for this study consisted of the cross-validation sample for the MnSOST-R ( N = 220) and a contemporary sample of 2,315 sex offenders released from Minnesota prisons between 2003 and 2006. To score and select items for the MnSOST-3, we used predicted probabilities generated from a multiple logistic regression model. We used bootstrap resampling to not only refine our selection of predictors but also internally validate the model. The results indicate the MnSOST-3 has a relatively high level of predictive discrimination, as evidenced by an apparent AUC of .821 and an optimism-corrected AUC of .796. The findings show the MnSOST-3 is well calibrated with actual recidivism rates for all but the highest risk offenders. Although estimating a penalized maximum likelihood model did not improve the overall calibration, the results suggest the MnSOST-3 may still be useful in helping identify high-risk offenders whose sexual recidivism risk exceeds 50%. Results from an interrater reliability assessment indicate the instrument, which is scored in a Microsoft Excel application, has an adequate degree of consistency across raters (ICC = .83 for both consistency and absolute agreement).

Megan’s Law 20 Years Later: An Empirical Analysis and Policy Review

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (7) ◽  
pp. 1028-1046 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristen M. Zgoba ◽  
Wesley G. Jennings ◽  
Laura M. Salerno
Keyword(s):  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Regression Equations ◽  
Megan's Law ◽  
Multivariate Logistic Regression ◽  
Recidivism Rates ◽  
Before And After ◽  
General Recidivism

This present study examines the sexual and general recidivism rates of 547 convicted sex offenders released before and after the enactment of Megan’s Law in New Jersey. Presenting the longest Megan’s Law evaluation, participants were followed for an average of 15 years after release (range = 10-29 years). Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression equations were estimated to identify covariates significantly associated with both sexual and general recidivism. Group-based trajectories of general recidivism within the 10 years post–prison release were also estimated and compared according to pre–Megan’s Law and post–Megan’s Law release status. No differences in recidivism rates were noted between the cohorts, but differences emerged in the offending trajectories of the high-risk group of offenders within 10 years of release. These results highlight the lack of impact that sex offender registration and notification (SORN) laws have on sexual and general reoffending rates postrelease.

Predictive Validity of the Static-99 and Static-99R in Switzerland

Sexual Abuse ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 203-219
Author(s):  
Leonel C. Gonçalves ◽  
Juliane Gerth ◽  
Astrid Rossegger ◽  
Thomas Noll ◽  
Jérôme Endrass
Keyword(s):  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Risk Category ◽  
Average Risk ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Sexual Offenses ◽  
Cut Score ◽  
Male Sex ◽  
Male Sex Offenders

This study evaluated the validity of the Static-99 and Static-99R in assessing sexual recidivism in Switzerland, based on a sample of 142 male sex offenders. Both tools showed predictive validity, but the Static-99R had better discrimination (OR = 1.82, AUC = .81) and calibration (Brier = .078, P/E = 0.96) than the Static-99. A cut score of four on the Static-99R maximized sensitivity (92.9%) and specificity (60.2%). However, although most offenders (98.7%) with a score < 4 did not commit sexual offenses in the 5-year follow-up period, only one in five (20.3%) offenders with a score ≥ 4 actually recidivated. Furthermore, the predicted number of recidivists in the well above average risk category (Static-99R ≥ 6) was 24% higher than expected in routine samples. The results suggest that the Static-99R may be a useful screening tool to identify low-risk individuals but offenders with scores ≥ 4 should be subjected to a more thorough assessment.

Better Practices in the Development and Validation of Recidivism Risk Assessments: The Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool–4

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (4) ◽  
pp. 538-564 ◽  
Author(s):  
Grant Duwe
Keyword(s):  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
Screening Tool ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Predictive Performance ◽  
Test Set ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Logistic Regression Algorithm ◽  
Development And Validation

This study examines the development and validation of the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool–4 (MnSOST-4) on a dataset consisting of 5,745 sex offenders released from Minnesota prisons between 2003 and 2012. Bootstrap resampling was used to select predictors, and k-fold and split-sample methods were used to internally validate the MnSOST-4. Using sex offense reconviction within 4 years of release from prison as the failure criterion, the data showed that 130 (2.3%) offenders in the overall sample were recidivists. Multiple classification methods and performance metrics were used to develop the MnSOST-4 and evaluate its predictive performance on the test set. The results from the regularized logistic regression algorithm showed that the MnSOST-4 performed well in predicting sexual recidivism in the test set, achieving an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.835. Additional analyses on the test set revealed that the MnSOST-4 outperformed the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool–3 (MnSOST-3), Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool–Revised (MnSOST-R), and Static-99 in predicting sexual reoffending.

Prediction of Youth and Adult Recidivism Among Spanish Juveniles Involved in Serious Offenses

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (4) ◽  
pp. 399-418 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keren Cuervo ◽  
Lidón Villanueva ◽  
Miguel Basto-Pereira
Keyword(s):  
Young Adult ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Cultural Context ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Level Of Service ◽  
Juvenile Period ◽  
Kaplan Meier ◽  
Juvenile Sample

This study analyzes the predictive validity of the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) for youth and adult recidivism in a Spanish juvenile sample. Participants’ age ranged between 14 and 18.09 years old ( N = 264) and 82% were boys and all had been sentenced to probation and custody centers. Data on juvenile and young adult recidivism were collected for the sample with mean follow-up periods of 13.74 and 20.19 months, respectively. The area under the curve, Kaplan–Meier and Cox regression survival analyses were each conducted to check for predictive validity. The findings demonstrated that the YLS/CMI is able to predict recidivism in both the juvenile period and the emerging adult period in a different cultural context. Prior Offenses and Education/Employment emerged as significant predictors for youth and young adult recidivism. The entire YLS/CMI is therefore an effective tool for risk classification in a different cultural sample.

Predictive Accuracy of Dynamic Risk Factors for Aboriginal and Non-Aboriginal Sex Offenders

2011 ◽  
Vol 56 (6) ◽  
pp. 856-876 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leslie Helmus ◽  
Kelly M. Babchishin ◽  
Julie Blais
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Self Regulation ◽  
Community Supervision ◽  
Relationship Stability ◽  
Dynamic Risk Factors ◽  
Dynamic Risk ◽  
Aboriginal Offenders

Although Aboriginal offenders are overrepresented in Canadian prisons, there is limited research examining the extent to which commonly used risk factors and risk scales are applicable to Aboriginals. Aboriginal ( n = 88) and non-Aboriginal ( n = 509) sex offenders on community supervision were compared on the dynamic risk factors of STABLE-2007. Data on sexual, violent, any crime, and any recidivism (including breaches) were collected with an average follow-up of 3.4 years. Aboriginal offenders scored significantly higher than non-Aboriginal offenders on STABLE-2007 total scores and on several items measuring general criminality. STABLE-2007 did not significantly predict recidivism with Aboriginal offenders (although it did for non-Aboriginals). The general antisociality items were generally significantly less predictive for Aboriginals than non-Aboriginals, whereas items assessing sexual self-regulation and relationship stability predicted similarly for both groups. These exploratory results suggest that Aboriginal sex offenders are a higher-needs group but that some STABLE-2007 items are not predictive with this population.

A Validation Study of the Child Pornography Offender Risk Tool (CPORT)

Sexual Abuse ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (4) ◽  
pp. 456-476 ◽  
Author(s):  
Angela W. Eke ◽  
L. Maaike Helmus ◽  
Michael C. Seto
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Power ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Sexual Offending ◽  
Child Pornography ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Sexual Offense ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Development And Validation

The Child Pornography Offender Risk Tool (CPORT) is a seven-item structured tool to assess the likelihood of future sexual offending over a 5-year fixed follow-up. The current study examined 5-year fixed follow-up data (15% any new sexual offense, 9% any new child pornography offense) for a validation sample of 80 men convicted of child pornography offense(s). Although statistical power was low, results were comparable with the development sample: The CPORT had slightly lower predictive accuracy for sexual recidivism for the overall group (area under the curve [AUC] = .70 vs. .74), but these values were not significantly different. Combining the development and validation samples, the CPORT predicted any sexual recidivism (AUC = .72) and child pornography recidivism specifically (AUC = .74), with similar accuracies. CPORT was also significantly predictive of these outcomes for the child pornography offenders with no known contact offenses. Strengths and weaknesses of incorporating CPORT into applied risk assessments are discussed.

The Reliability and Predictive Validity of the Stalking Risk Profile

Assessment ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 259-276 ◽  
Author(s):  
Troy E. McEwan ◽  
Daniel E. Shea ◽  
Michael Daffern ◽  
Rachel D. MacKenzie ◽  
James R. P. Ogloff ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Reliability And Validity ◽  
Duration Discrimination ◽  
Risk Profile ◽  
Community Based ◽  
Predictive Values ◽  
Risk Judgments ◽  
Better Than

This study assessed the reliability and validity of the Stalking Risk Profile (SRP), a structured measure for assessing stalking risks. The SRP was administered at the point of assessment or retrospectively from file review for 241 adult stalkers (91% male) referred to a community-based forensic mental health service. Interrater reliability was high for stalker type, and moderate-to-substantial for risk judgments and domain scores. Evidence for predictive validity and discrimination between stalking recidivists and nonrecidivists for risk judgments depended on follow-up duration. Discrimination was moderate (area under the curve = 0.66-0.68) and positive and negative predictive values good over the full follow-up period ( Mdn = 170.43 weeks). At 6 months, discrimination was better than chance only for judgments related to stalking of new victims (area under the curve = 0.75); however, high-risk stalkers still reoffended against their original victim(s) 2 to 4 times as often as low-risk stalkers. Implications for the clinical utility and refinement of the SRP are discussed.

scholarly journals Low recidivism rates of child sex offenders in a Finnish 7-year follow-up

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 103-111
Author(s):  
Taina Laajasalo ◽  
Noora Ellonen ◽  
Julia Korkman ◽  
Tom Pakkanen ◽  
Olli-Pekka Aaltonen
Keyword(s):  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Recidivism Rates
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