scholarly journals Cross-sectional Volatility and Stock Returns: Evidence for Emerging Markets

2016 ◽  
Vol 41 (3) ◽  
pp. 234-246 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sanjay Sehgal ◽  
Vidisha Garg
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Asset Pricing ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Residual Variance ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Risk Premiums

Executive Summary Cross-sectional volatility measures dispersion of security returns at a particular point of time. It has received very little focus in research. This article studies the cross-section of volatility in the context of economies of Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China, South Korea, and South Africa (BRIICKS). The analysis is done in two parts. The first part deals with systematic volatility (SV), that is, cross-sectional variation of stock returns owing to their exposure to market volatility measure ( French, Schwert, & Stambaugh, 1987 ). The second part deals with unsystematic volatility (UV), measured by the residual variance of stocks in a given period by using error terms obtained from Fama–French model. The study finds that high SV portfolios exhibit low returns in case of Brazil, South Korea, and Russia. The risk premium is found to be statistically significantly negative for these countries. This finding is consistent with Ang et al. and is indicative of hedging motive of investors in these markets. Results for other sample countries are somewhat puzzling. No significant risk premiums are reported for India and China. Significantly positive risk premiums are observed for South Africa and Indonesia. Further, capital asset pricing model (CAPM) seems to be a poor descriptor of returns on systematic risk loading sorted portfolios while FF is able to explain returns on all portfolios except high SV loading portfolio (i.e., P1) in case of South Africa which seems to be an asset pricing anomaly. It is further observed that high UV portfolios exhibit high returns in all the sample countries except China. In the Chinese market, the estimated risk premium is statistically significantly negative. This negative risk premium is inconsistent with the theory that predicts that investors demand risk compensation for imperfect diversification. The remaining sample countries show significantly positive risk premium. CAPM does not seem to be a suitable descriptor for returns on UV sorted portfolios. The FF model does a better job but still fails to explain the returns on high UV sorted portfolio in case of Brazil and China and low UV sorted portfolio in South Africa. The findings are relevant for global fund managers who plan to develop emerging market strategies for asset allocation. The study contributes to portfolio management as well as market efficiency literature for emerging economies.

Past price changes, trading volume and prediction of portfolio returns

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 330-356 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sanjay Sehgal ◽  
Vibhuti Vasishth
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Asset Pricing ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Academic Community ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Portfolio Returns ◽  
Past Price

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the profitability of investment strategies based on past price changes and trading volumes. Design/methodology/approach – Data are employed from January 1998 to December 2011 for select emerging markets. Portfolios are formed on the basis of past information on prices and/or volumes. Unrestricted and risk adjusted returns for sample portfolios are analyzed. The risk models employed in study are Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), Fama-French (F-F) Model and Fama-French augmented models. Findings – Price momentum patterns are observed for Brazil, India, South Africa and South Korea, while there are reversals in Indonesia and China. Low-volume stocks outperform high-volume stocks for all sample countries except China. Further, volume and price based bivariate strategies do a better job than univariate strategies in case of India, South Africa and South Korea. The past price and volume patterns in stock returns are not fully explained by CAPM as well as the F-F Model. Price and volume momentum factors do play a role in explaining some of these return patterns. Finally, the unexplained returns seem to be an outcome of investor under or overreaction to past information. The sources of price and volume momentum seem to be partly risk based and partly behavioral. Originality/value – The study analyzes combined role of price and volume in portfolio formation with post holding analysis. The work is useful for global portfolio managers, policy makers, market regulators and the academic community. The study contributes to asset pricing and behavioral finance literature for emerging markets.

Cross-Section of Expected Returns Based on Equity Duration

2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (3) ◽  
pp. 297-327
Author(s):  
Sungjeh Moon ◽  
Joonhyuk Song
Keyword(s):  
Cross Section ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Significant Risk Factor ◽  
Expected Returns ◽  
Expected Return ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Risk Premiums

We analyze the cross-sectional expected return of KOSPI stocks using equity duration. From 1991 to 2018, we calculate equity durations for the KOSPI listed stocks (including de-listed stocks) and find that the shorter the equity duration, the higher the risk premium. Using the 4-factor model with equity duration added to the benchmark 3-factor model, the explanatory power of the 4-factor model is superior to that of the existing benchmark model in accounting for risk premiums. This is an unusual finding that is not readily explainable by the traditional CAPM or the Fama-French 3-factor model. This can be interpreted that the equity duration is a separate and significant risk factor dissociated from the HML of the 3-factor model.

scholarly journals Value Risk Premium and Stock Returns in Kenya: Exploring the Moderating Effect of Investor Sentiment

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nebat Galo Mugenda ◽  
Tobias Olweny ◽  
Joshua M. Wepukhulu
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Asset Pricing ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Portfolio Management ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Moderating Effect ◽  
Series Data

Purpose:Prior literature has focused on the direct effect of firm level fundamental characteristics on stock returns while ignoring the likely effect of investor irrationality on asset pricing decisions. The purpose of this study is to investigate the role of investor sentiment in the relationship between value risk premium and stock returns in Kenya. Design/methodology/approach: The study utilized monthly time series data for 60 companies listed at the NSE over the recent 9 years from 2011-2019. The study employed time series regression using ARDL and VEC estimation techniques to examine whether the effect of value risk on stock returns will vary with level of investor sentiment. Findings: Results show weak evidence for existence of value risk premium at the NSE using the main effects model. The pricing effect of value risk premium is however enhanced in the interaction model. The interaction though not significant implying that there is no moderating effect of sentiment. Research limitations: The shorter nine-year period considered by the study could be a source of small sample bias in the estimation. Sample periods for studies in mature markets span for over decades. In this light, making comparison of the findings in this thesis with those of other related studies may not be feasible. Originality/Value: This study is first of its kind to analyze the moderating effect of investor behavior on asset pricing for an emerging market. The paper contributes to portfolio management and asset pricing literature for emerging markets.

scholarly journals Market and Accounting Risk Factors of Asset Pricing in the Classical and Downside Approaches

2020 ◽  
Vol 54 (2) ◽  
pp. 103
Author(s):  
Anna Rutkowska-Ziarko ◽  
Lesław Markowski
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Asset Pricing ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Average Rate ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Downside Risk ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Profitability Ratios

<p>Theoretical background: The variability of the company’s profitability is the result of the accompanying risk. To compare the profitability of many companies, relative profitability measures, which include profitability ratios, are more convenient. This article analyses market and accounting risk factors of CAPM. Risk was considered in variance and downside framework. Market betas, accounting betas were used in an extended version of the asset pricing model. Additionally, the influence of profitability ratios, such as ROA and ROE on the average rate of return on the capital market are considered.</p><p>Purpose of the article: The main purpose of this study is to test the standard and extended CAPM relations between systematic risk measures and mean returns for single companies quoted on the Polish capital market and equally-weighted portfolios in two approaches: variance and downside risk.</p><p>Research methods: The research based on individual securities and portfolios, compares the one-factor risk-return relationships with two-factor ones estimated using mean returns in cross-sectional regressions. The regressors were expressed in absolute terms and classical and downside beta coefficients. The sample includes companies differing in terms of size and across different industries.</p><p>Main findings: Portfolios with higher classical or downside market betas generate higher mean returns. The negative risk premium for accounting betas for variance and downside risk was identified. It is not in accordance with our earlier study of the Polish construction sector, where a positive and significant risk premium for downside accounting betas was found. The highest explanatory power of rates on returns on the Polish capital market were found for average ROA and ROE. This confirms the results of the previous studies on the Polish capital market for food and construction sectors.</p>

Freedom Indices and Capital Asset Pricing Model: Some Malaysian Evidence

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-21
Author(s):  
Ying Tay Lee ◽  
Devinaga Rasiah ◽  
Ming Ming Lai
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Asset Pricing ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Firm Size ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Press Freedom ◽  
Capital Asset Pricing ◽  
Capital Asset ◽  
Cross Sectional

Human rights and fundamental freedoms such as economic, political, and press freedoms vary widely from country to country. It creates opportunity and risk in investment decisions. Thus, this study is carried out to examine if the explanatory power of the model for capital asset pricing could be improved when these human rights movement indices are included in the model. The sample for this study comprises of 495 stocks listed in Bursa Malaysia, covering the sampling period from 2003 to 2013. The model applied in this study employed the pooled ordinary least square regression estimation. In addition, the robustness of the model is tested by using firm size as a controlled variable. The findings show that market beta as well as the economic and press freedom indices could explain the cross-sectional stock returns of the Malaysian stock market. By controlling the firm size, it adds marginally to the explanation of the extended CAP model which incorporated economic, political, and press freedom indices.

Fashion designers' attitude-behaviour inconsistencies towards a sustainable business model: a neutralisation theory perspective

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Asphat Muposhi ◽  
Brighton Nyagadza ◽  
Chengedzai Mafini
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Survey Study ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Sustainable Fashion ◽  
Fashion Designers

PurposeFashion designers in South Africa remain ambivalent in embracing sustainable fashion. This study examines the role of neutralisation techniques on attitude towards sustainable fashion. The study was conducted in South Africa, an emerging market known for water scarcity and pollution emanating from the textile industry.Design/methodology/approachA structured questionnaire was used to collect cross-sectional data from a sample of 590 fashion designers using a web-based online survey. Study constructs were drawn from the neutralisation theory and theory of planned behaviour.FindingsStandard multiple regression analysis results identified denial of injury, appeal to higher loyalties and external locus of control as the major rationalisation techniques influencing South African designers' negative attitudes towards sustainable fashion.Research limitations/implicationsResearch was conducted in South Africa where the concept of sustainable fashion is still at developmental stages. The generalisation of the study findings may be enhanced by extending the study to other markets with a fully developed market for sustainable fashion.Practical implicationsThe study results underscore the necessity of reducing social, structural and institutional barriers associated with the adoption of sustainable fashion. This study provides input towards efforts to develop attitude change strategies to stimulate designers to embrace sustainable fashion.Originality/valueThe research study contributes to theory, practice and future research.

scholarly journals Relative mispricing and takeover likelihood

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 689-715
Author(s):  
Keming Li ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Trading Strategy ◽  
Sharp Contrast ◽  
High Momentum ◽  
Stock Valuation ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
High Investment ◽  
Negative Predictor

<abstract> <p>This paper examines the effect of acquirer likelihood on future stock returns. In sharp contrast to prior findings, acquirer likelihood is a strong and negative predictor of cross-sectional future returns after controlling for target likelihood. If takeover exposure represents a risk premium, the effect on stock valuation should only present in either likelihood measure (acquirer or target likelihood). This evidence casts doubt on the rational risk explanation, but is consistent with a relative mispricing story. Investors take positions accordingly to explore profits from takeovers. Profits from trading strategy based on takeover probability are concentrated in stocks with high misvaluation characteristics, including small size, value, high momentum, high investment, and low turnover firms, as well as both high and low issuance (or accrual) firms.</p> </abstract>

scholarly journals Nuclear Hazard and Asset Prices: Implications of Nuclear Disasters in the Cross-Sectional Behavior of Stock Returns

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (22) ◽  
pp. 9721
Author(s):  
Ana Belén Alonso-Conde ◽  
Javier Rojo-Suárez
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Large Fraction ◽  
Factor Models ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Risk Premiums ◽  
Conditional Capm ◽  
Equity Risk ◽  
The Cross ◽  
The Cost

Using stock return data for the Japanese equity market, for the period from July 1983 to June 2018, we analyze the effect of major nuclear disasters worldwide on Japanese discount rates. For that purpose, we compare the performance of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) conditional on the event of nuclear disasters with that of the classic CAPM and the Fama–French three- and five-factor models. In order to control for nuclear disasters, we use an instrument that allows us to parameterize the linear stochastic discount factor of the conditional CAPM and transform the classic CAPM into a three-factor model. In this regard, the use of nuclear disasters as an explanatory variable for the cross-sectional behavior of stock returns is a novel contribution of this research. Our results suggest that nuclear disasters account for a large fraction of the variation of stock returns, allowing the CAPM to perform similarly to the Fama–French three- and five-factor models. Furthermore, our results show that, in general, nuclear disasters are positively related to the expected returns of a large number of assets under study. Our results have important implications for the task of estimating the cost of equity and constitute a step forward in understanding the relationship between equity risk premiums and nuclear disasters.

Social enterprises and organizational learning in South Africa

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 117-133 ◽  
Author(s):  
Boris Urban ◽  
Elena Gaffurini
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Organizational Learning ◽  
Social Innovation ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Cross Sectional Study ◽  
Social Enterprises ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this study is to determine the relationship between different dimensions of organizational learning capabilities (OLC) and levels of social innovation in social enterprises. Design/methodology/approach The empirical strategy adopted is a cross-sectional study based on primary survey data. Following a survey of social enterprises in South Africa, statistically analysis is conducted using regression analyses to test the study hypotheses. Findings The findings show that the OLC dimensions of knowledge conversion, risk management, organizational dialogue and participative decision-making all have a significant and positive relationship with social innovation. Research limitations/implications In many emerging economies, the notion of organizational learning appears to have considerable potential relevance, particularly as African countries are moving toward knowledge-based economies. By focusing on OLC, it is anticipated that social enterprises can configure and leverage the different factors in ways that enable them to overcome the constraints of the complex and unpredictable environments and increase their levels of social innovation. Originality/value The paper provides a pioneering empirical investigation into the impact that OLC has on levels of social innovation, in an under-researched emerging market context.

The Bias in Two-Pass Regression Tests of Asset-Pricing Models in Presence of Idiosyncratic Errors with Cross-Sectional Dependence

2019 ◽  
Vol 22 (02) ◽  
pp. 1950012
Author(s):  
Thomas Gramespacher ◽  
Armin Bänziger
Keyword(s):  
Asset Pricing ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Measurement Errors ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Pricing Models ◽  
Time Series Regression ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Asset Pricing Models ◽  
Slope Estimator ◽  
Regression Tests

In two-pass regression-tests of asset-pricing models, cross-sectional correlations in the errors of the first-pass time-series regression lead to correlated measurement errors in the betas used as explanatory variables in the second-pass cross-sectional regression. The slope estimator of the second-pass regression is an estimate for the factor risk-premium and its significance is decisive for the validity of the pricing model. While it is well known that the slope estimator is downward biased in presence of uncorrelated measurement errors, we show in this paper that the correlations seen in empirical return data substantially suppress this bias. For the case of a single-factor model, we calculate the bias of the OLS slope estimator in the presence of correlated measurement errors with a first-order Taylor-approximation in the size of the errors. We show that the bias increases with the size of the errors, but decreases the more the errors are correlated. We illustrate and validate our result using a simulation approach based on empirical data commonly used in asset-pricing tests.

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