scholarly journals Prospective Field Validation of the START:AV in a Dutch Secure Youth Care Sample

Assessment ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 107319112110632
Author(s):  
Tamara L. F. De Beuf ◽  
Vivienne de Vogel ◽  
Nick J. Broers ◽  
Corine de Ruiter
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Physical Aggression ◽  
Youth Care ◽  
Adverse Outcomes ◽  
Assessment Instrument ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Lifetime History ◽  
Risk Assessment Instrument ◽  
Risk Judgments

The Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability: Adolescent Version (START:AV) is a risk assessment instrument for adolescents that estimates the risk of multiple adverse outcomes. Prior research into its predictive validity is limited to a handful of studies conducted with the START:AV pilot version and often by the instrument’s developers. The present study examines the START:AV’s field validity in a secure youth care sample in the Netherlands. Using a prospective design, we investigated whether the total scores, lifetime history, and the final risk judgments of 106 START:AVs predicted inpatient incidents during a 4-month follow-up. Final risk judgments and lifetime history predicted multiple adverse outcomes, including physical aggression, institutional violations, substance use, self-injury, and victimization. The predictive validity of the total scores was significant only for physical aggression and institutional violations. Hence, the short-term predictive validity of the START:AV for inpatient incidents in a residential youth care setting was partially demonstrated and the START:AV final risk judgments can be used to guide treatment planning and decision-making regarding furlough or discharge in this setting.

An Examination of Changes in LSI-R Scores Over Time: Making the Case for Needs-Based Case Management

2011 ◽  
Vol 38 (6) ◽  
pp. 541-553 ◽  
Author(s):  
Melinda D. Schlager ◽  
Daniel Pacheco
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Case Management ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Community Corrections ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Assessment Instrument ◽  
Level Of Service ◽  
Change Scores ◽  
Risk Assessment Instrument ◽  
Over Time

The Level of Service Inventory—Revised (LSI-R) is an actuarially derived risk assessment instrument with a demonstrated reputation and record of supportive research. It has shown predictive validity on several offender populations. Although a significant literature has emerged on the validity and use of the LSI-R, no research has specifically examined change scores or the dynamics of reassessment and its importance with respect to case management. Flores, Lowenkamp, Holsinger, and Latessa and Lowenkamp and Bechtel, among others, specifically identify the importance and need to examine LSI-R reassessment scores. The present study uses a sample of parolees ( N = 179) from various community corrections programs that were administered the LSI-R at two different times. Results indicate that both mean composite and subcomponent LSI-R scores statistically significantly decreased between Time 1 and Time 2. The practical, theoretical, and policy implications of these results are discussed.

scholarly journals Risk Assessment in Habitual Offenders With Substance Use Problems: A Quasi-Prospective Study of the Predictive Validity of the HKT-30

2018 ◽  
Vol 62 (13) ◽  
pp. 4187-4195 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sylvia Lammers ◽  
Lot Kokkelink ◽  
Hein deHaan
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Substance Use ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Assessment Instrument ◽  
Prospective Design ◽  
Risk Assessment Instrument ◽  
Substance Use Problems ◽  
Scale Scores ◽  
Habitual Offenders

The predictive validity of the Dutch risk assessment instrument HKT-30 was investigated with a quasi-prospective design in a sample of habitual offenders with a substance use disorder (SUD). The study is reported according to RAGEE guidelines. The HKT-30 is an extension of the HCR-20. Files of 89 patients were coded and recidivism data were requested from the Ministry of Justice. Total scale scores and scores of the Clinical and Future scales were significantly predictive of recidivism for 1 and 2 years of time at risk, respectively. In contrast to earlier studies into recidivism, the H-scale had no predictive value. Regression analysis showed that the Clinical and Future scales contributed to the explanation of variance in recidivism, but not independently from each other. The conclusion is that the HKT-30 is a useful instrument for discovering risk factors and predicting recidivism for the population of habitual offenders with an SUD.

The Reliability and Predictive Validity of the Stalking Risk Profile

Assessment ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 259-276 ◽  
Author(s):  
Troy E. McEwan ◽  
Daniel E. Shea ◽  
Michael Daffern ◽  
Rachel D. MacKenzie ◽  
James R. P. Ogloff ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Reliability And Validity ◽  
Duration Discrimination ◽  
Risk Profile ◽  
Community Based ◽  
Predictive Values ◽  
Risk Judgments ◽  
Better Than

This study assessed the reliability and validity of the Stalking Risk Profile (SRP), a structured measure for assessing stalking risks. The SRP was administered at the point of assessment or retrospectively from file review for 241 adult stalkers (91% male) referred to a community-based forensic mental health service. Interrater reliability was high for stalker type, and moderate-to-substantial for risk judgments and domain scores. Evidence for predictive validity and discrimination between stalking recidivists and nonrecidivists for risk judgments depended on follow-up duration. Discrimination was moderate (area under the curve = 0.66-0.68) and positive and negative predictive values good over the full follow-up period ( Mdn = 170.43 weeks). At 6 months, discrimination was better than chance only for judgments related to stalking of new victims (area under the curve = 0.75); however, high-risk stalkers still reoffended against their original victim(s) 2 to 4 times as often as low-risk stalkers. Implications for the clinical utility and refinement of the SRP are discussed.

Is the Tinetti Performance Oriented Mobility Assessment (POMA) a feasible and valid predictor of short-term fall risk in nursing home residents with dementia?

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 254-263 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carolyn S. Sterke ◽  
Sawadi L. Huisman ◽  
Ed F. van Beeck ◽  
Caspar W. N. Looman ◽  
Tischa J. M. van der Cammen
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Nursing Home ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Nursing Home Residents ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Severe Dementia ◽  
Mobility Assessment ◽  
Specific Objective

ABSTRACTBackground:The feasibility and predictive validity of balance and gait measures in more severe stages of dementia have been understudied. We evaluated the clinimetric properties of the Tinetti Performance Oriented Mobility Assessment (POMA) in nursing home residents with dementia with a specific objective of predicting falls in the short term.Methods:Seventy-five ambulatory nursing home residents with dementia, mean age 81 ± 8 years, participated in a prospective cohort study. All participants underwent the full POMA-test. Fall statistics were retrieved from incident reports during a three-months follow-up period. The predictive validity was expressed in terms of sensitivity and specificity. Loglinear regression analysis was used to examine the relationship between POMA scores and the occurrence of a fall.Results:The POMA showed several feasibility problems, with 41% of patients having problems in understanding one or more instructions. The inter-rater reliability of the instrument was good. The predictive validity was acceptable, with a sensitivity of 70–85% and a specificity of 51–61% for the POMA and its subtests, and an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.70 for POMA-Total (95% CI: 0.53–0.81), 0.67 for POMA-Balance (95% CI: 0.52–0.81), and 0.67 for POMA-Gait (95% CI: 0.53–0.81). After loglinear regression analysis, only POMA-T was significant in predicting a fall (adjusted HR = 1.08 per point lower; 95% CI 1.00–1.17).Conclusions:Application of the POMA in populations with moderate to severe dementia is hampered by feasibility problems. Its implementation in clinical practice cannot therefore be recommended, despite an acceptable predictive validity. To refine our findings, large prospective studies on the predictive validity of the POMA in populations with mild, moderate and severe dementia are needed. In addition, the performance of mobility assessment methods that are less dependent on cognition should be evaluated.

Professional Discretion and the Predictive Validity of a Juvenile Risk Assessment Instrument

2016 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 103-118 ◽  
Author(s):  
James T. McCafferty
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Assessment Instrument ◽  
Adjusted Risk ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Risk Assessment Instrument ◽  
Actuarial Risk ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Impact

The ability for professionals to override the results of an actuarial risk assessment tool is an essential part of effective correctional risk classification; however, little is known about how this important function affects the predictive validity of these tools. Using data from a statewide sample of juveniles from Ohio, this study examined the impact of professional adjustments on the predictive validity of a juvenile risk assessment instrument. This study found that the original and adjusted risk levels were significant predictors of recidivism, but the original risk levels were stronger predictors of recidivism than the adjusted risk levels that accounted for overrides.

scholarly journals Predictive validity of the Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START) for multiple adverse outcomes: The effect of diagnosis

2017 ◽  
Vol 256 ◽  
pp. 435-443 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca Marriott ◽  
Laura E. O'Shea ◽  
Marco M. Picchioni ◽  
Geoffrey L. Dickens
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Adverse Outcomes ◽  
Short Term

The Measures of Criminal Attitudes and Associates (MCAA)

2004 ◽  
Vol 31 (6) ◽  
pp. 717-733 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeremy F. Mills ◽  
Daryl G. Kroner ◽  
Toni Hemmati
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Assessment Instrument ◽  
Self Report ◽  
Male Offenders ◽  
Risk Assessment Instrument ◽  
Violent Recidivism ◽  
Actuarial Risk ◽  
Antisocial Attitudes ◽  
Adult Male Offenders

Recent research has demonstrated that antisocial attitudes and antisocial associates are among the better predictors of antisocial behavior. This study tests the predictive validity of the Measures of Criminal Attitudes and Associates (MCAA) in a sample of adult male offenders. The MCAA comprises two parts: Part A is a quantified self-report measure of criminal friends, and Part B contains four attitude scales: Violence, Entitlement, Antisocial Intent, and Associates. The MCAA scales showed predictive validity for the outcomes of general and violent recidivism. In addition, the MCAA significantly improved the prediction of violent recidivism over an actuarial risk assessment instrument alone. Discussion centers on the contribution that antisocial attitudes and associates make to risk assessment.

scholarly journals Short-Term Rationing of Combination Antiretroviral Therapy: Impact on Morbidity, Mortality, and Loss to Follow-Up in a Large HIV Treatment Program in Western Kenya

2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
April J. Bell ◽  
Kara Wools-Kaloustian ◽  
Sylvester Kimaiyo ◽  
Hai Liu ◽  
Adrian Katschke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Median Number ◽  
Hiv Treatment ◽  
Adverse Outcomes ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Cox Models ◽  
Western Kenya ◽  
Loss To Follow Up ◽  
Risk Of Mortality ◽  
Short Period

Background. There was a 6-month shortage of antiretrovirals (cART) in Kenya.Methods. We assessed morbidity, mortality, and loss to follow-up (LTFU) in this retrospective analysis of adults who were enrolled during the six-month period with restricted cART (cap) or the six months prior (pre-cap) and eligible for cART at enrollment by the pre-cap standard. Cox models were used to adjust for potential confounders.Results. 9009 adults were eligible for analysis: 4,714 pre-cap and 4,295 during the cap. Median number of days from enrollment to cART initiation was 42 pre-cap and 56 for the cap (P<0.001). After adjustment, individuals in the cap were at higher risk of mortality (HR=1.21; 95% CI : 1.06–1.39) and LTFU (HR=1.12; 95% CI : 1.04–1.22). There was no difference between the groups in their risk of developing a new AIDS-defining illness (HR=0.9295% CI 0.82–1.03).Conclusions. Rationing of cART, even for a relatively short period of six months, led to clinically adverse outcomes.

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