Initial neutrophil and lymphocyte ratio as a predictor of mortality and ICU admission after major trauma

Trauma ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 146040862110501
Author(s):  
Yunfei Qiu ◽  
Mark Fitzgerald ◽  
Biswadev Mitra
Keyword(s):  
Hospital Mortality ◽  
Hospital Discharge ◽  
Roc Curve ◽  
Major Trauma ◽  
Trauma Patients ◽  
Predictive Capacity ◽  
Discriminative Ability ◽  
Lymphocyte Ratio ◽  
Icu Admission ◽  
Prediction Of Mortality

Introduction The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) has been proposed as a marker of systemic inflammation in major trauma patients that is associated with in-hospital mortality. We aimed to determine the discriminative ability of initial NLR as a predictor of outcomes following major trauma. Methods This was a registry-based cohort study involving all major trauma patients meeting criteria for inclusion into the Alfred Health Trauma Registry who presented directly from the scene of injury over a 24-month period (January 2018 to December 2019). The initial NLR was calculated for each patient and was compared against the Shock Index (SI), lactate and Revised Trauma Score (RTS). Outcomes observed were mortality at hospital discharge and intensive care unit (ICU) admission. We assessed the predictive capacity of each test using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and performed area under the ROC curve (AUROC) analysis to compare their performance. Results Data were extracted for 1687 major trauma patients, of which 72% were male, the median age was 49 years (IQR 31–68) and most (90%) of patients presented after a blunt mechanism of injury. In-hospital mortality occurred in 165 (9.77%) patients, and 725 (42.92%) patients required ICU admission. The median NLR was 6.84 (IQR 3.89–11.52). Initial NLR performed poorly with an AUROC of 0.46 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.40–0.52) for prediction of mortality and AUROC of 0.53 (95% CI: 0.50–0.56) for prediction of ICU admission. The AUROCs of initial NLR for both mortality at hospital discharge and ICU admission were significantly lower than SI, lactate and RTS. Conclusion Initial NLR was not predictive of outcomes in major trauma. NLR at other time-points may provide better predictive capacity for outcomes.

scholarly journals The definition of major trauma using different revisions of the abbreviated injury scale

2021 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan C. Van Ditshuizen ◽  
◽  
Charlie A. Sewalt ◽  
Cameron S. Palmer ◽  
Esther M. M. Van Lieshout ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hospital Mortality ◽  
Major Trauma ◽  
Injury Severity ◽  
Trauma Patients ◽  
Abbreviated Injury Scale ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Level Of Evidence ◽  
Logistic Regression Models ◽  
Icu Admission ◽  
Admission Rates

Abstract Background A threshold Injury Severity Score (ISS) ≥ 16 is common in classifying major trauma (MT), although the Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) has been extensively revised over time. The aim of this study was to determine effects of different AIS revisions (1998, 2008 and 2015) on clinical outcome measures. Methods A retrospective observational cohort study including all primary admitted trauma patients was performed (in 2013–2014 AIS98 was used, in 2015–2016 AIS08, AIS08 mapped to AIS15). Different ISS thresholds for MT and their corresponding observed mortality and intensive care (ICU) admission rates were compared between AIS98, AIS08, and AIS15 with Chi-square tests and logistic regression models. Results Thirty-nine thousand three hundred seventeen patients were included. Thresholds ISS08 ≥ 11 and ISS15 ≥ 12 were similar to a threshold ISS98 ≥ 16 for in-hospital mortality (12.9, 12.9, 13.1% respectively) and ICU admission (46.7, 46.2, 46.8% respectively). AIS98 and AIS08 differed significantly for in-hospital mortality in ISS 4–8 (χ2 = 9.926, p = 0.007), ISS 9–11 (χ2 = 13.541, p = 0.001), ISS 25–40 (χ2 = 13.905, p = 0.001) and ISS 41–75 (χ2 = 7.217, p = 0.027). Mortality risks did not differ significantly between AIS08 and AIS15. Conclusion ISS08 ≥ 11 and ISS15 ≥ 12 perform similarly to a threshold ISS98 ≥ 16 for in-hospital mortality and ICU admission. This confirms studies evaluating mapped datasets, and is the first to present an evaluation of implementation of AIS15 on registry datasets. Defining MT using appropriate ISS thresholds is important for quality indicators, comparing datasets and adjusting for injury severity. Level of evidence Prognostic and epidemiological, level III.

scholarly journals Prognostic Value of Inflammatory Biomarkers in Patients with Severe COVID-19: A Single-Center Retrospective Study

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 ◽  
pp. 117727192110270
Author(s):  
Gönül Açıksarı ◽  
Mehmet Koçak ◽  
Yasemin Çağ ◽  
Lütfiye Nilsun Altunal ◽  
Adem Atıcı ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Retrospective Study ◽  
Hospital Mortality ◽  
Prognostic Value ◽  
Current Knowledge ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Prognostic Nutritional Index ◽  
Inflammatory Biomarkers ◽  
Single Center ◽  
Discriminative Ability ◽  
Lymphocyte Ratio

Background: The current knowledge about novel coronavirus-2019 (COVID-19) indicates that the immune system and inflammatory response play a crucial role in the severity and prognosis of the disease. In this study, we aimed to investigate prognostic value of systemic inflammatory biomarkers including C-reactive protein/albumin ratio (CAR), prognostic nutritional index (PNI), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR), and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) in patients with severe COVID-19. Methods: This single-center, retrospective study included a total of 223 patients diagnosed with severe COVID-19. Primary outcome measure was mortality during hospitalization. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify independent predictors associated with mortality in patients with severe COVID-19. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to determine cut-offs, and area under the curve (AUC) values were used to demonstrate discriminative ability of biomarkers. Results: Compared to survivors of severe COVID-19, non-survivors had higher CAR, NLR, and PLR, and lower LMR and lower PNI ( P < .05 for all). The optimal CAR, PNI, NLR, PLR, and LMR cut-off values for detecting prognosis were 3.4, 40.2, 6. 27, 312, and 1.54 respectively. The AUC values of CAR, PNI, NLR, PLR, and LMR for predicting hospital mortality in patients with severe COVID-19 were 0.81, 0.91, 0.85, 0.63, and 0.65, respectively. In ROC analysis, comparative discriminative ability of CAR, PNI, and NLR for hospital mortality were superior to PLR and LMR. Multivariate analysis revealed that CAR (⩾0.34, P = .004), NLR (⩾6.27, P = .012), and PNI (⩽40.2, P = .009) were independent predictors associated with mortality in severe COVID-19 patients. Conclusions: The CAR, PNI, and NLR are independent predictors of mortality in hospitalized severe COVID-19 patients and are more closely associated with prognosis than PLR or LMR.

scholarly journals Outcomes of major trauma among patients with chronic kidney disease and receiving dialysis in Nova Scotia: a retrospective analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. e000672
Author(s):  
Ryan Pratt ◽  
Mete Erdogan ◽  
Robert Green ◽  
David Clark ◽  
Amanda Vinson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Chronic Kidney Disease ◽  
Nova Scotia ◽  
Kidney Disease ◽  
Hospital Mortality ◽  
Major Trauma ◽  
Injury Severity ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Trauma Patients ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Increased Risk

BackgroundThe risk of death and complications after major trauma in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) is higher than in the general population, but whether this association holds true among Canadian trauma patients is unknown.ObjectivesTo characterize patients with CKD/receiving dialysis within a regional major trauma cohort and compare their outcomes with patients without CKD.MethodsAll major traumas requiring hospitalization between 2006 and 2017 were identified from a provincial trauma registry in Nova Scotia, Canada. Trauma patients with stage ≥3 CKD (estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min/1.73 m2) or receiving dialysis were identified by cross-referencing two regional databases for nephrology clinics and dialysis treatments. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality; secondary outcomes included hospital/intensive care unit (ICU) length of stay (LOS) and ventilator-days. Cox regression was used to adjust for the effects of patient characteristics on in-hospital mortality.ResultsIn total, 6237 trauma patients were identified, of whom 4997 lived within the regional nephrology catchment area. CKD/dialysis trauma patients (n=101; 28 on dialysis) were older than patients without CKD (n=4896), with higher rates of hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease, and had increased risk of in-hospital mortality (31% vs 11%, p<0.001). No differences were observed in injury severity, ICU LOS, or ventilator-days. After adjustment for age, sex, and injury severity, the HR for in-hospital mortality was 1.90 (95% CI 1.33 to 2.70) for CKD/dialysis compared with patients without CKD.ConclusionIndependent of injury severity, patients without CKD/dialysis have significantly increased risk of in-hospital mortality after major trauma.

Abstract 183: Outcomes for Major Trauma Patients in Counties Without Trauma Centers Are Worse: Nationwide Population-Based Research in Taiwan

Circulation ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 130 (suppl_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dorji Harnod ◽  
Chu Hui Chang ◽  
Ray E Chang
Keyword(s):  
Major Trauma ◽  
Injury Severity ◽  
Total Mortality ◽  
Data Bank ◽  
Claim Data ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Trauma Patients ◽  
Direct Transfer ◽  
Trauma Centers ◽  
Icu Admission

Background: Some articles proved indirect-transfer the major trauma patients to the trauma centers had non-significant different outcomes with the patients direct-transfer to the centers. But the outcomes for the major trauma patients in the counties without trauma centers still can be worse. So we did a population based research by using the NHIRD data for the results. Methods: From the claim data of one million beneficiaries of Taiwan National Health Insurance during the year of 2006 to 2008, all of the trauma patients were identified from the database by the ICD-9-CM system. ICDMAP-90 was used for calculating the Injury Severity Score (ISS) as the variable controlling the disease severity. The patients of major trauma were defined as ISS more than fifteen. We used the diagnosis one year before the trauma admission for calculating Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI). The first hospitals and the second transferred hospitals that the major trauma patients admitted, and the areas of the first hospitals were recognized in our data bank. The condition of transfer, age, genders, intubation, ICU admission, ISS, CCI, and the triage classifications were adjusted in a logistic regression model for further analysis. Results: There were 2497 major trauma patients (ISS more then 15). The total mortality rate was 12.49%. The variables like age, intubation, ICU admission, ISS and CCI were significant for mortality, but the condition of transfer was not significant in our model. After controlling all the factors, the major trauma patients that first admitted in the areas with no trauma centers have a significant higher risk of mortality (OR=1.73, P=0.005). Conclusions: Our results hint that, although indirect-transfer for the major trauma patients have insignificant difference in mortality with the direct transfer patients, the counties with no trauma centers have significant higher mortality rates in major trauma patients. Further researches are needed for investigating the possible reasons.

scholarly journals The Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte Ratio at the Time of Admission: A New Prognostic Indicator for Hospital Mortality of Trauma Patients

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamed Fouladseresht ◽  
Shahram Bolandparvaz ◽  
Hamid Reza Abbasi ◽  
Hossein Abdolrahimzadeh Fard ◽  
Shahram Paydar
Keyword(s):  
Survival Analysis ◽  
Hospital Mortality ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Prognostic Indicator ◽  
Neutrophil To Lymphocyte Ratio ◽  
Trauma Patients ◽  
Lymphocyte Ratio ◽  
Kaplan Meier ◽  
Time Of Admission

The elevated neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is associated with poor clinical outcomes, especially in pro-inflammatory states such as surgical injuries and severe hemorrhages. Therefore, it was hypothesized whether NLR value at the time of admission could be a prognostic indicator of hospital mortality in trauma patients. This retrospective cohort study was conducted on 865 trauma patients referred to Rajaee Hospital between April 2016 and July 2019. The NLR value was calculated at the time of admission, and receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis was used to determine the cut-off point value of admission NLR related to hospital mortality of trauma patients. Furthermore, Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox regression models have been applied to determine the effectiveness and prognostic potential of the admission NLR in the hospital mortality of trauma patients. The median age of the trauma patients was 32 years with an interquartile range (IQR) of 23 to 48 years, and most of them were male (83.9%). Also, trauma patients had a median injury severity score (ISS) of 9 (IQR=4-16) and a median Glasgow coma scale (GCS) of 14 (IQR=9-15). The cut-off value for admission NLR was 5.27 (area under the curve: 0.642, 95%CI: 0.559-0.726, p=0.001). In Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, the admission NLR>5.27 was an indicator of hospital mortality in trauma patients (p=0.001). Multivariate Cox regression models demonstrated that trauma patients with an admission NLR>5.27 had a 2.33-fold risk of hospital mortality (hazard ratio=2.33, 95%CI: 1.02-5.38, p=0.041). Furthermore, the admission NLR>5.27 was associated with a higher risk of hospital mortality in trauma patients with age≥65 years, systolic blood pressure≤90 mmHg, blood potassium>4.5 mmol/L, blood sodium>144 mEq/L, blood potential hydrogen (pH)≤7.28, GCS≤8, ISS>24 and blood base excess≤-6.1 mEq/L. The NLR value greater than 5.27 at the time of admission was associated with poorer outcomes, and it can be considered an independent prognostic indicator of hospital mortality in trauma patients.

scholarly journals Impact of stress-induced hyperglycemia on the outcome of children with trauma: A cross-sectional analysis based on propensity score-matched population

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yi-Wen Tsai ◽  
Shao-Chun Wu ◽  
Chun-Ying Huang ◽  
Shiun-Yuan Hsu ◽  
Hang-Tsung Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Propensity Score ◽  
Hospital Mortality ◽  
Injury Severity ◽  
Pediatric Trauma ◽  
Trauma Patients ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Icu Admission ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
History Of ◽  
Sectional Analysis

Abstract This was a retrospective study of pediatric trauma patients and were hospitalized in a level-1 trauma center from January 1, 2009 to December 31, 2016. Stress-induced hyperglycemia (SIH) was defined as a hyperglycemia level ≥200 mg/dL upon arrival at the emergency department without any history of diabetes or a hemoglobin A1c level ≥6.5% upon arrival or during the first month of admission. The results demonstrated that the patients with SIH (n = 36) had a significantly longer length of stay (LOS) in hospital (16.4 vs. 7.8 days, p = 0.002), higher rates of intensive care unit (ICU) admission (55.6% vs. 20.9%, p < 0.001), and higher in-hospital mortality rates (5.6% vs. 0.6%, p = 0.028) compared with those with non-diabetic normoglycemia (NDN). However, in the 24-pair well-balanced propensity score-matched patient populations, in which significant difference in sex, age, and injury severity score were eliminated, patient outcomes in terms of LOS in hospital, rate of ICU admission, and in-hospital mortality rate were not significantly different between the patients with SIH and NDN. The different baseline characteristics of the patients, particularly injury severity, may be associated with poorer outcomes in pediatric trauma patients with SIH compared with those with NDN. This study also indicated that, upon major trauma, the response of pediatric patients with SIH is different from that of adult patients.

scholarly journals Neutrophil-lymphoycyte-ratio, platelet-lymphocyte-ratio and procalcitonin for early assessment of prognosis in patients undergoing VA-ECMO

2022 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastian Roth ◽  
René M’Pembele ◽  
Alexandra Stroda ◽  
Catrin Jansen ◽  
Giovanna Lurati Buse ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hospital Mortality ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Final Analysis ◽  
Operating Characteristics ◽  
Early Assessment ◽  
Discriminative Ability ◽  
Neutrophil Lymphocyte Ratio ◽  
Lymphocyte Ratio ◽  
Platelet Lymphocyte Ratio ◽  
Va Ecmo

AbstractThe use of veno-arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA-ECMO) is increasing, but mortality remains high. Early assessment of prognosis is challenging and valid markers are lacking. This study aimed to investigate Neutrophil–Lymphocyte Ratio (NLR), Platelet-Lymphocyte-Ratio (PLR) and Procalcitonin (PCT) for early assessment of prognosis in patients undergoing VA-ECMO. This retrospective single-center cohort study included 344 consecutive patients ≥ 18 years who underwent VA-ECMO due to cardiogenic shock. Main exposures were NLR, PLR and PCT measured within 24 h after VA-ECMO initiation. The primary endpoint was all-cause in-hospital mortality. In total, 92 patients were included into final analysis (71.7% male, age 57 ± 14 years). In-hospital mortality rate was 48.9%. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve revealed an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.65 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.53–0.76] for NLR. The AUCs of PLR and PCT were 0.47 [95%CI 0.35–0.59] and 0.54 [95%CI 0.42–0.66], respectively. Binary logistic regression showed an adjusted odds ratio of 3.32 [95%CI 1.13–9.76] for NLR, 1.0 [95%CI 0.998–1.002] for PLR and 1.02 [95%CI 0.99–1.05] for PCT. NLR is independently associated with in-hospital mortality in patients undergoing VA-ECMO. However, discriminative ability is weak. PLR and PCT seem not to be suitable for this purpose.

scholarly journals Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) as independent predictors of outcome in infective endocarditis (IE)

2019 ◽  
Vol 71 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marwa Sayed Meshaal ◽  
Abdo Nagi ◽  
Ahmed Eldamaty ◽  
Wae’el Elnaggar ◽  
Mervat Gaber ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Severe Sepsis ◽  
Infective Endocarditis ◽  
Hospital Mortality ◽  
Roc Curve ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Neutrophil To Lymphocyte Ratio ◽  
Total Leucocyte Count ◽  
Platelet To Lymphocyte Ratio ◽  
Lymphocyte Ratio ◽  
Neutrophil Percentage

Abstract Background Early and accurate risk assessment is an important clinical demand in patients with infective endocarditis (IE). The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) are independent predictors of prognosis in many infectious and cardiovascular diseases. Very limited studies have been conducted to evaluate the prognostic role of these markers in IE. Results We analyzed clinical, laboratory, and echocardiographic data and outcomes throughout the whole period of hospitalization for a total of 142 consecutive patients with definitive IE. The overall in-hospital mortality was 21%. Major complications defined as central nervous system embolization, fulminant sepsis, acute heart failure, acute renal failure, and major artery embolization occurred in 38 (27%), 34 (24%), 32 (22.5%), 40 (28%), and 90 (63.4%) patients, respectively. The NLR, total leucocyte count (TLC), neutrophil percentage, creatinine, and C-reactive protein (CRP) level obtained upon admission were significantly higher in the mortality group [p ≤ 0.001, p = 0.008, p = 0.001, p = 0.004, and p = 0.036, respectively]. A higher NLR was significantly associated with fulminant sepsis and major arterial embolization [p = 0.001 and p = 0.028, respectively]. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of the NLR for predicting in-hospital mortality showed that an NLR > 8.085 had a 60% sensitivity and an 84.8% specificity for an association with in-hospital mortality [area under the curve = 0.729, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.616–0.841; p = 0.001]. The ROC curve of the NLR for predicting severe sepsis showed that an NLR > 5.035 had a 71.8% sensitivity and a 68.5% specificity for predicting severe sepsis [area under the curve 0.685, 95% CI 0.582–0.733; p = 0.001]. The PLR showed no significant association with in-hospital mortality or in-hospital complications. Conclusion A higher NLR, TLC, neutrophil percentage, creatinine level, and CRP level upon admission were associated with increased in-hospital mortality and morbidity in IE patients. Furthermore, a lower lymphocyte count/percentage and platelet count were strong indicators of in-hospital mortality among IE patients. Calculation of the NLR directly from a CBC upon admission may assist in early risk stratification of patients with IE.

scholarly journals β-Hydroxy-β-Methylbutrate (HMB) Supplementation and Functional Outcomes in Multi-trauma Patients: A Study Protocol for a Pilot Randomised Clinical Trial (BOOST trial)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kym Wittholz ◽  
Kate Fetterplace ◽  
Yasmine Ali Abdelhamid ◽  
Jeffery J Presneill ◽  
Lisa Beach ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Clinical Trial ◽  
Hospital Discharge ◽  
Orange Juice ◽  
Major Trauma ◽  
Oral Intake ◽  
Randomised Clinical Trial ◽  
Feasibility Trial ◽  
Trauma Patients ◽  
Icu Discharge ◽  
The Impact

Abstract BackgroundThere are no therapies proven to diminish the muscle wasting that occurs in patients after major trauma who are admitted to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU). β-Hydroxy-β-Methylbutrate (HMB) is a nutrition intervention that may attenuate muscle loss and, thereby, improve recovery. The primary aim of this study is to determine the feasibility of a blinded randomised clinical trial of HMB supplementation to patients after major trauma who are admitted to the ICU. Secondary aims are to establish estimates for the impact of HMB when compared to placebo on muscle mass and nutrition-related patient outcomes.MethodsThis prospective, single centre, blinded, randomised, placebo controlled, parallel group, feasibility trial with allocation concealment will recruit 50 participants over 18 months. After informed consent, participants will be randomised [1:1] to receive either the intervention (three grams of HMB dissolved in either 150ml of orange juice for those allowed oral intake or 150ml of water for those being enterally fed) or placebo (150ml of orange juice for those allowed oral intake or 150ml of water for those being enterally fed). The intervention will be commenced in ICU, continued after ICU discharge and ceased at hospital discharge or day 28 post randomization, whichever occurs first. The primary outcome is the feasibility of administering the intervention. Secondary outcomes include change in muscle thickness using ultrasound, and other nutritional and patient-centred outcomes. DiscussionThis study aims to determine the feasibility of administering HMB to critically ill multi-trauma patients throughout ICU admission until hospital discharge. Results will inform design of a larger randomised clinical trial. Trial registrationThe protocol is registered with Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR) ANZCTR: 12620001305910, registered 02/12/2020 https://www.anzctr.org.au/Trial/Registration/TrialReview.aspx?id=380744&isReview=true. UTN: U1111-1259-5534

Prognostication in urgent intensive care unit referrals: a cohort study

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 118-121 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joao Gabriel Rosa Ramos ◽  
Roger Daglius Dias ◽  
Rogerio da Hora Passos ◽  
Paulo Benigno Pena Batista ◽  
Daniel Neves Forte
Keyword(s):  
Intensive Care Unit ◽  
Intensive Care ◽  
Hospital Mortality ◽  
Poor Prognosis ◽  
Performance Status ◽  
Multivariable Analysis ◽  
Severe Disabilities ◽  
Icu Admission ◽  
Prediction Of Mortality ◽  
Incorrect Classification

ObjectivesPrognostication is an essential ability to clinicians. Nevertheless, it has been shown to be quite variable in acutely ill patients, potentially leading to inappropriate care. We aimed to assess the accuracy of physician’s prediction of hospital mortality in acutely deteriorating patients referred for urgent intensive care unit (ICU) admission.MethodsProspective cohort of acutely ill patients referred for urgent ICU admission in an academic, tertiary hospital. Physicians’ prognosis assessments were recorded at ICU referral. Prognosis was assessed as survival without severe disabilities, survival with severe disabilities or no survival. Prognosis was further dichotomised in good prognosis (survival without severe disabilities) or poor prognosis (survival with severe disabilities or no survival) for prediction of hospital mortality.ResultsThere were 2374 analysed referrals, with 2103 (88.6%) patients with complete data on mortality and physicians’ prognosis. There were 593 (34.4%), 215 (66.4%) and 51 (94.4%) deaths in the groups ascribed a prognosis of survival without disabilities, survival with severe disabilities or no survival, respectively (p<0.001). Sensitivity was 31%, specificity was 91% and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.61 for prediction of mortality. After multivariable analysis, severity of illness, performance status and ICU admission were associated with an increased likelihood of incorrect classification, while worse predicted prognosis was associated with a lower chance of incorrect classification.ConclusionsPhysician’s prediction was associated with hospital mortality, but overall accuracy was poor, mainly due to low sensitivity to detect risk of poor prognosis.

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