Simple-to-use nomogram for predicting the risk of syphilis among MSM in Guangdong Province: results from a serial cross-sectional study

Abstract Background The purpose of this study was to develop and validate a simple-to-use nomogram for the prediction of syphilis infection among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Guangdong Province. Methods A serial cross-sectional data of 2184 MSM from 2017 to 2019 was used to develop and validate the nomogram risk assessment model. The eligible MSM were randomly assigned to the training and validation dataset. Factors included in the nomogram were determined by multivariate logistic regression analysis based on the training dataset. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves was used to assess its predictive accuracy and discriminative ability. Results A total of 2184 MSM were recruited in this study. The prevalence of syphilis was 18.1% (396/2184). Multivariate logistic analysis found that age, the main venue used to find sexual partners, condom use in the past 6 months, commercial sex in the past 6 months, infection with sexually transmitted diseases (STD) in the past year were associated with syphilis infection using the training dataset. All these factors were included in the nomogram model that was well calibrated. The C-index was 0.80 (95% CI 0.76–0.84) in the training dataset, and 0.79 (95% CI 0.75–0.84) in the validation dataset. Conclusions A simple-to-use nomogram for predicting the risk of syphilis has been developed and validated among MSM in Guangdong Province. The proposed nomogram shows good assessment performance.

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Development and Validation of a Clinical Score for Predicting the Risk of Tympanosclerosis Before Surgery

Ear Nose & Throat Journal ◽

10.1177/0145561320951676 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 014556132095167

Author(s):

Zhihuai Dong ◽

Mingguang Zhou ◽

Gaofei Ye ◽

Jing Ye ◽

Mang Xiao

Keyword(s):

Otitis Media ◽

Calibration Curve ◽

Validation Cohort ◽

Predictive Accuracy ◽

Strong Predictor ◽

Multivariate Logistic Regression Analysis ◽

Clinical Score ◽

Type I ◽

Discriminative Ability ◽

Training Cohort

Objective: To develop and validate a clinical score to predict the risk of tympanosclerosis before surgery. Methods: A sample of 404 patients who underwent middle ear microsurgery for otitis media was enrolled. These patients were randomly divided into 2 cohorts: the training cohort (n = 243, 60%) and the validation cohort (n = 161, 40%). The preoperative predictors of tympanosclerosis were determined by multivariate logistic regression analysis and implemented using a clinical score tool. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the clinical score were determined by the area under the curve (AUC) and the calibration curve. Results: The multivariate analysis in the training cohort (n = 243, 60%) identified independent factors for tympanosclerosis as the female sex (odds ratio [OR]: 3.83; 95% CI: 1.66-9.37), the frequency-specific air-bone gap at 250 Hz ≥ 45 dB HL (OR: 3.68; 95% CI: 1.68-8.57), aditus ad antrum blockage (OR: 3.29; 95% CI: 1.38-8.43), type I eardrum calcification (OR: 25.37; 95% CI: 8.41-88.91) or type II eardrum calcification (OR: 18.86; 95% CI: 6.89-58.77), and a history of otitis media ≥ 10 years (OR: 4.10; 95% CI: 1.58-11.83), which were all included in the clinical score tool. The AUC of the clinical score for predicting tympanosclerosis was 0.89 (95% CI: 0.85-0.93) in the training cohort and 0.89 (95% CI: 0.84-0.95) in the validation cohort. The calibration curve also showed good agreement between the predicted and observed probability. Conclusions: The clinical score achieved an optimal prediction of tympanosclerosis before surgery. The presence of calcification pearls on the promontorium tympani is a strong predictor of tympanosclerosis with stapes fixation.

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A high triglyceride glucose index is more closely associated with hypertension than lipid or glycemic parameters in elderly individuals: a cross-sectional survey from the Reaction Study.

10.21203/rs.3.rs-20132/v2 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Binruo Zhu ◽

Jie Wang ◽

Kang Chen ◽

Wenhua Yan ◽

Anping Wang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Logistic Regression ◽

Multivariate Logistic Regression Analysis ◽

Multivariate Logistic Regression ◽

Cross Sectional Survey ◽

Discriminative Ability ◽

Cross Sectional ◽

Elderly Individuals ◽

Reaction Study ◽

Tyg Index ◽

Risk Of Cancer

Abstract Background: Both lipid and glucose abnormalities are associated with hypertension (HTN). However, it is unclear whether the triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index is associated with HTN. Therefore the aim of this study is to investigate the association of the TyG index and HTN and to compare the discriminative power of the TyG index, lipid, glycemic parameters for the risk of HTN in elderly individuals.Methods: The present study was nested in a longitudinal (REACTION) study from May 2011 to December 2011, which was designed to demonstrate the association of abnormal glucose metabolism with the risk of cancer in the Chinese population. In total, 47808 participants were recruited in this cross-sectional study. The TyG index was divided into five groups: the <20% group, the 20-39% group, the 40-59% group, the 60-79% group and the ≥80% group, according to quintile division of the subjects. Three multivariate logistic regression models were used to evaluate the association between the TyG vs. lipid parameters, glycemic parameters and HTN.Results: Multivariate logistic regression analysis shows that compared with lipid and glycemic parameters, the TyG index remains significantly associated with HTN in either total subjects or subjects separated into men and women (odds ratio (OR) 1.33, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.18-1.51, p <0.0001 in total subjects; OR 1.39, 95% CI 1.11-1.74, p=0.0042 in men; OR 1.28, 95% CI 1.11-1.49, p=0.0010 in women). In a stratified analysis, an elevated TyG index is significantly associated with HTN in the subgroup of the oldest age (≥65) (OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.30-2.14, p <0.0001), as well as with obesity (Body mass index (BMI) ≥28 kg/m2) (OR 1.85, 95% CI 1.29-2.66, p=0.0009) or lower estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) (<90 mL/ (min·1.73 m2)) (OR 1.72, 95% CI 1.33-2.21, p <0.0001).Conclusion: The TyG index is significantly associated with HTN and shows the superior discriminative ability for HTN compared with lipid and glycemic parameters in the Chinese elderly population.

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High triglyceride glucose index is more closely associated with hypertension than lipid or glycemic parameters in elderly individuals: a cross-sectional survey from the Reaction Study.

10.21203/rs.3.rs-20132/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Binruo Zhu ◽

Jie Wang ◽

Kang Chen ◽

Wenhua Yan ◽

Anping Wang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Logistic Regression ◽

Multivariate Logistic Regression Analysis ◽

Multivariate Logistic Regression ◽

Cross Sectional Survey ◽

Discriminative Ability ◽

Cross Sectional ◽

Elderly Individuals ◽

Reaction Study ◽

Tyg Index ◽

Risk Of Cancer

Abstract Background: Both lipid and glucose abnormalities are associated with hypertension (HTN). However, it is unclear whether triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index is associated with HTN. Therefore, the aim of this study is to investigate the association of TyG index and HTN and compare the discriminative power of TyG index, lipid, glycemic parameters for the risk of HTN in the elderly individuals.Methods: The present study was nested in a longitudinal (REACTION) study from May 2011 to December 2011, which was designed to demonstrate the association of abnormal glucose metabolism with the risk of cancer in the Chinese population. 43591 participants were recruited in this cross-sectional study. TyG index were divided into 5 groups: <20% group, the 20-39% group, the 40-59% group, the 60-79% group and the ≥80% group according quartile division of the subjects. Three multivariate logistic regression models were used to evaluate the association between TyG v.s lipid parameters, glycemic parameters and HTN.Results: Multivariate logistic regression analysis shows that compared with lipid and glycemic parameters, TyG index remains significantly associated with HTN in either total subjects or subjects separated into men and women (odds ratio (OR) 1.33, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.18-1.51, p <0.0001 in total subjects; OR 1.39, 95% CI 1.11-1.74, p=0.0042 in men; OR 1.28, 95% CI 1.11-1.49, p=0.0010 in women). In stratified analysis, elevated TyG index is significantly associated with HTN in the subgroup of oldest age (≥65) (OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.30-2.14, p <0.0001), obesity (Body mass index (BMI) ≥28 kg/m2) (OR 1.85, 95% CI 1.29-2.66, p 0.0009) or lower estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) (<90 mL/ (min·1.73 m2)) (OR 1.72, 95% CI 1.33-2.21, p <0.0001).Conclusion: TyG index is significantly associated with HTN and shows the superior discriminative ability for HTN compared with lipid and glycemic parameters in the Chinese elderly population.

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Syphilis infection among people who use and inject drugs in Cambodia: a cross-sectional study using the respondent-driven sampling method

International Journal of STD & AIDS ◽

10.1177/0956462420929132 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 31 (9) ◽

pp. 832-840

Author(s):

Siyan Yi ◽

Kiesha Prem ◽

Pheak Chhoun ◽

Navy Chann ◽

Sovannary Tuot ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Sampling Method ◽

Cross Sectional Study ◽

Capital City ◽

School Level ◽

Multivariable Logistic Regression Analysis ◽

Respondent Driven Sampling ◽

Sectional Study ◽

Syphilis Infection ◽

Cross Sectional ◽

The Past

This cross-sectional study explored the prevalence and correlates of syphilis infection among people who use and inject drugs (PWUD/PWID) in Cambodia. Data were collected in 2017 from 1,677 PWUD/PWID living in the capital city of Phnom Penh and 11 other major provinces using the respondent-driven sampling method. The SD Bioline HIV/Syphilis Duo test was used to determine human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and current or past syphilis infection. A multivariable logistic regression analysis was conducted to identify risk factors associated with current or past syphilis infection. The prevalence of current or past syphilis infection was 3.8% (95% confidence interval = 2.4–4.6). After adjustment, current or past syphilis infection remained positively associated with being female, living on the streets, having an average monthly income of US$100–299, having transactional sex in the past three months, and having been to a rehabilitation centre in the past 12 months. Current or past syphilis infection was negatively associated with having attained at least high school level of formal education. The findings indicate vulnerability to syphilis infection among PWUD/PWID in Cambodia, particularly among subpopulations who are more marginalized. Syphilis prevention and control programmes should be systematically integrated into HIV and sexually transmitted infection policy and services in the country.

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HIV infection among young men who have sex with men in China: comparison of risks among students and non-students

10.21203/rs.2.12321/v1 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Jing Wu ◽

Zihuang Chen ◽

Fei Yu ◽

Youran Xu ◽

Yue Ma ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Logistic Regression ◽

Hiv Infection ◽

Infection Rate ◽

Multivariate Logistic Regression Analysis ◽

Young Men ◽

Multivariate Logistic Regression ◽

Cross Sectional ◽

Factors Associated ◽

The Past ◽

Sex With Men

Abstract Background The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic has been drastically increasing among men who have sex with men (MSM) in China over the past decade. More so, the number of HIV infections among young adults in the country has also been on the rise, highlighting a unique sub-population, which may lead to increased incidence and transmission of the disease. This study aimed to determine the HIV infection rate amongst student and non-student young men who have sex with men (YMSM) in three regions in China and factors associated with their HIV infection. Methods A cross-sectional study was conducted from 1 September to 6 September 2017 in Beijing, Sichuan, and Guangzhou). Participants were recruited through a popular Chinese gay social networking application, as well as several college-based youth associations. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to assess factors associated with HIV infection. Results The HIV infection rate among non-student YMSM was significantly higher than that of student YMSM (10.3% versus 5.3%, χ2trend=17.34, P<0.001). The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that YMSM self-identifying as homosexual (AOR=2.81, 95%CI=1.40-5.66, P=0.004) and perceived themselves at risk for HIV (AOR=3.08, 95:CI:1.33-7.15, P=0.009) had a 3 times increased odds of being HIV positive. Additionally, participants whom reported not always using condoms with sex partners in the past six months (AOR=1.69, 95%CI=1.17-2.44, P=0.006) were at increased odds of HIV infection. Conclusions Young men who have sex with men, particularly those identifying as homosexual and not always using condoms during intercourse, are at increased odds of HIV infection in China. Promoting comprehensive sexual education to youth and other measures aimed at improving HIV knowledge could help control HIV transmission among this key sub-population.

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Construction of a survival prediction model for high-and low -grade UTUC after tumor resection based on “SEER database”: a multicenter study

BMC Cancer ◽

10.1186/s12885-021-08742-3 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 21 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Mengmeng Wang ◽

Xin Ren ◽

Ge Wang ◽

Xiaomin Sun ◽

Shifeng Tang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Tumor Resection ◽

Training Dataset ◽

Validation Dataset ◽

Survival Prediction ◽

Low Grade ◽

Seer Database ◽

Discriminative Ability ◽

Internal Validation ◽

The Difference ◽

Good Calibration

Abstract Background There are differences in survival between high-and low-grade Upper Tract Urothelial Carcinoma (UTUC). Our study aimed to develop a nomogram to predict overall survival (OS) of patients with high- and low-grade UTUC after tumor resection, and to explore the difference between high- and low-grade patients. Methods Patients confirmed to have UTUC between 2004 and 2015 were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. The UTUCs were identified and classified as high- and low-grade, and 1-, 3- and 5-year nomograms were established. The nomogram was then validated using the Chinese multicenter dataset (patients diagnosed in Shandong, China between January 2010 and October 2020). Results In the high-grade UTUC patients, nine important factors related to survival after tumor resection were identified to construct nomogram. The C index of training dataset was 0.740 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.727–0.754), showing good calibration. The C index of internal validation dataset was 0.729(95% CI:0.707–0.750). On the other hand, Two independent predictors were identified to construct nomogram of low-grade UTUC. The C index was 0.714 (95% CI: 0.671–0.758) for the training set,0.731(95% CI:0.670–0.791) for the internal validation dataset. Encouragingly, the nomogram was clinically useful and had a good discriminative ability to identify patients at high risk. Conclusion We constructed a nomogram and a corresponding risk classification system predicting the OS of patients with an initial diagnosis of high-and low-grade UTUC.

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The “effect” of T classification on colorectal liver metastasis.

Journal of Clinical Oncology ◽

10.1200/jco.2019.37.15_suppl.e15049 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 37 (15_suppl) ◽

pp. e15049-e15049

Author(s):

Lunpo Wu ◽

Hongjuan Zheng ◽

Jianfei Fu ◽

Jinlin Du ◽

Shu Zheng ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Colorectal Cancer ◽

Lymph Node ◽

Predictive Accuracy ◽

Assessment Model ◽

Discriminative Ability ◽

Cox Models ◽

Tissue Samples ◽

Kaplan Meier ◽

Cox Analysis ◽

T Classification

e15049 Background: T classification is considered as a detail and credible category of the depth of tumor invasion. Generally, with the increasing T category, the risk of metastases should be continuously rising. However, there is a group of metastatic patients with early T classification, who were supposed to have a low metastatic probability. Our study aims to present the T classification on metastatic liver colorectal cancer (CRLM) in both clinical and biological aspects, and explore preoperative predictions to develop a convenient individual assessment model for clinicians to speculate whether these patients, whose prognosis is extremely poor. Methods: Tissue samples of primary colorectal cancer were obtained at our center. Patients with CRLM during 2010 to 2014 were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Kaplan-Meier and Cox models were used to analyze the survival differences. We identified preoperative prognostic factors based on the Cox analysis and constructed a nomogram model. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability were measured by concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve. Results: The mRNA array from our hospital showed that there is an obvious difference between the T1/2N0M1 subgroup and the T3/4N0M1 subgroup. Patients with early T classification (T1) were more often have tumors located in rectum, with well differentiation, with no lymph node metastasis and a higher CEA level. Further survival analysis indicated that early T classification (T1) was an independent prognostic factor with poorer survival. When the lymph node (N) status was taken into consideration, patients with T1 N+ had an obvious better survival than T1 N0 patients. A clinical nomogram was constructed based on preoperative factors. The calibration curves for probability of 1-, 2-, and 5-year overall survival showed a good agreement between nomogram prediction and actual observation. Conclusions: The prognosis of T1M1 is extremely poorer than T3/4M1. The prognosis of T1N+ is better than T1N0. It is time to pay more attention to the high-risk monitoring and screening of T1 in early colon cancer.

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HIV seroprevalence, self-reported STIs and associated risk factors among men who have sex with men: a cross-sectional study in Rwanda, 2015

Sexually Transmitted Infections ◽

10.1136/sextrans-2017-053311 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 95 (1) ◽

pp. 71-74 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Roman Saba Ntale ◽

Gad Rutayisire ◽

Pierre Mujyarugamba ◽

Eliah Shema ◽

Jane Greatorex ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Cross Sectional Study ◽

High Rate ◽

Risk Behaviours ◽

Sectional Study ◽

Syphilis Infection ◽

Cross Sectional ◽

Logistic Regression Models ◽

The Past ◽

Hiv Test ◽

Sex With Men

ObjectivesIn many populations, men who have sex with men (MSM) are at a high risk of HIV infection. This study aimed to estimate the burden of HIV, other STIs and risk behaviours among Rwandan MSM.MethodsIn this cross-sectional study, we recruited through peer referral men aged between 18 and 60 years, who reported sex with men at least once in the 12 months prior to the survey. Representativeness was increased using ‘seeds’ from a variety of sources. Signed informed consent was obtained from all participants. Data on demographics, risk behaviours and self-reported STIs were collected through an interviewer-administered questionnaire. We screened all eligible participants for HIV using the Rwanda-approved protocol for rapid HIV detection.Results504 MSM were recruited from five major cities in Rwanda. Participants were mostly young (median age 23 years, range 18–55 years) and unmarried (484/504, 96.0%). Thirteen per cent (65/504) of the participants reported past gonorrhoea and/or syphilis infection. Of 504 MSM, 53 (10.5%) reported they were diagnosed and treated for gonorrhoea in the past 12 months and 24 (4.8%) tested positive for HIV. A high proportion (232/504, 46%) reported receiving payment for sex by a man, with almost half of these reporting on more than three occasions (107/232, 46%). Many reported having had an HIV test within the past 12 months (385/504, 76.4%). In multivariate logistic regression models controlling for age, being paid for sex was associated with higher odds of past STI (OR 3.36 (1.82–6.43]; P<0.001) and testing HIV positive (OR 3.13, P<0.05).ConclusionFurther research is needed to understand the high rate of payment for sex in this population, which appears to be a major risk factor for STI including HIV.

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Role of cancer literacy in cancer screening behaviour among adults of Kaski district, Nepal

PLoS ONE ◽

10.1371/journal.pone.0254565 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 16 (7) ◽

pp. e0254565

Author(s):

Reecha Koirala ◽

Nisha Gurung ◽

Sarita Dhakal ◽

Sulata Karki

Keyword(s):

Cancer Screening ◽

Early Stage ◽

Multivariate Logistic Regression Analysis ◽

Cross Sectional Study ◽

Cross Sectional ◽

The Past ◽

Multi Stage ◽

Cancer Literacy ◽

And Gender ◽

Literacy Scores

Cancer Screening is a key approach to detect cancer at an early stage and help reduce cancer mortality globally. Inadequate Cancer Literacy may pose a barrier to patient engagement in getting screened for cancer. This study assessed Cancer Screening behavior and its association with Cancer Literacy and other factors among adults of Kaski district, Nepal. A cross-sectional study was carried out among 180 adults from March to August 2019, selected using a multi-stage random sampling method. Data on demographics, history of cancer, use of naturopathy, fatalism, family support, cancer literacy and cancer screening behaviour were collected using a semi-structured questionnaire, with the aid of face-to-face interviews. Cancer Literacy was measured using a cancer health literacy tool (CHLT-6), and Cancer Screening behaviour was assessed on the basis of the self reported information about having gone through any type of cancer screening in the past. Odds ratio (OR) with 95% Confidence Interval (CI) was calculated to determine the strength of association using Multivariate Logistic Regression analysis. Only 43.4% of the respondents had Cancer Literacy scores more than the median and only 11.7% had ever gone through any Cancer Screening test in the past. In this study, Cancer Screening behaviour was significantly associated with Cancer Literacy [OR = 1.43, 95% CI (1.01–2.02)]. Similarly, significant association was found between Cancer Screening behaviour and other exposure variables such as age [OR = 1.06, 95% CI (1.02–1.11)] and gender [OR = 0.06, 95% CI (0.01–0.35)]. This study showed low cancer screening and cancer literacy scores amongst the respondents. This suggests that to tackle the ever increasing burden of cancer and hence, to increase cancer screening, we need to focus on improving knowledge and awareness about cancer, as well as, on targeting efforts towards people’s understanding of basic health and cancer terminologies.

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An XGBoost Based Approach for Urban Land Use and Land Cover Change Modelling

10.22541/au.159646139.97656606/v2 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Md Didarul Islam ◽

Kazi Saiful Islam ◽

Mohammad Mia

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Land Cover ◽

Real World ◽

Predictive Accuracy ◽

Urban Land Use ◽

Training Dataset ◽

Validation Dataset ◽

Accuracy Score ◽

Predictive Capacity ◽

Ongoing Research

Land use and land cover (LULC) change have significant consequences on habitat and environment. Scholars have developed several LULC models to identify the factors behind the changes and to simulate future LULC scenarios to assist in policymaking. Nevertheless, the accuracy of the models remains contentious and a matter of ongoing research agenda. Additionally, most of these studies used a training dataset to train the model and a validation dataset, which is a part of the original training dataset used to validate the model’s accuracy. However, to justify model’s actual predictive capability, we need to test the model on real-world dataset that was not used in modeling. So, we present XGBoost model to improve the accuracy of LULC prediction. Contrary to the typical studies, we use a separate test dataset to justify the model’s predictive capacity in real-world scenario. The result reveals that XGBoost model exhibits highest 84% kappa and 93% accuracy score compared to two benchmark model LR-CA (82% kappa and 92% accuracy score) and ANN-CA (82% kappa and 92% accuracy score). We also found that the built-up area increased by 48.7% in 2002 to 64% in 2010, while agricultural and vacant land declined by almost at the same magnitude over the period and the most important aspect of the LULC shift process in Khulna city was the proximity factors to major roads, industry and commercial establishments. The proposed model proved to increase the predictive accuracy making it much more reliable for analyzing and predicting urban LULC using spatial factors.

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