scholarly journals Observations and conversations: how communities learn about infection risk can impact the success of non-pharmaceutical interventions against epidemics

2022 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew J. Silk ◽  
Simon Carrignon ◽  
R. Alexander Bentley ◽  
Nina H. Fefferman

Abstract Background Individual behavioural decisions are responses to a person’s perceived social norms that could be shaped by both their physical and social environment. In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, these environments correspond to epidemiological risk from contacts and the social construction of risk by communication within networks of friends. Understanding the circumstances under which the influence of these different social networks can promote the acceptance of non-pharmaceutical interventions and consequently the adoption of protective behaviours is critical for guiding useful, practical public health messaging. Methods We explore how information from both physical contact and social communication layers of a multiplex network can contribute to flattening the epidemic curve in a community. Connections in the physical contact layer represent opportunities for transmission, while connections in the communication layer represent social interactions through which individuals may gain information, e.g. messaging friends. Results We show that maintaining focus on awareness of risk among each individual’s physical contacts promotes the greatest reduction in disease spread, but only when an individual is aware of the symptoms of a non-trivial proportion of their physical contacts (~ ≥ 20%). Information from the social communication layer without was less useful when these connections matched less well with physical contacts and contributed little in combination with accurate information from physical contacts. Conclusions We conclude that maintaining social focus on local outbreak status will allow individuals to structure their perceived social norms appropriately and respond more rapidly when risk increases. Finding ways to relay accurate local information from trusted community leaders could improve mitigation even where more intrusive/costly strategies, such as contact-tracing, are not possible.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew J Silk ◽  
Simon Carrignon ◽  
R. Alexander Bentley ◽  
Nina H Fefferman

Background: Individual behavioural decisions are responses to both a persons perceived social norms and could be driven by both their physical and social environment. In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, these environments correspond to epidemiological risk from contacts and the social construction of risk by communication within networks of friends. Understanding when, and under which circumstances, each modality of influence can foster the widespread adoption of protective behaviours is critical for shaping useful, practical public health messaging that will best enhance the public response. Methods: We use a multiplex network approach to explore how information from both physical contact and social communication networks is driving a mitigating behavioural response to disease risk. Findings: We show that maintaining focus on awareness of risk in each individuals physical layer contacts promotes the greatest reduction in disease spread, but only when an individual is aware of the symptoms of a non-trivial proportion of their physical contacts (approximately 20% or more). Information from the communication layer was less useful when these connections matched less well with physical contacts and contributed little in combination with accurate information from the physical layer. Interpretation: We conclude that maintaining social focus on local outbreak status will allow individuals to structure their perceived social norms appropriately and respond more rapidly when risk increases. Finding ways to relay accurate local information from trusted community leaders could improve mitigation even where more intrusive/costly strategies, such as contact-tracing, are not possible.


2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew Abueg ◽  
Robert Hinch ◽  
Neo Wu ◽  
Luyang Liu ◽  
William Probert ◽  
...  

AbstractContact tracing is increasingly used to combat COVID-19, and digital implementations are now being deployed, many based on Apple and Google’s Exposure Notification System. These systems utilize non-traditional smartphone-based technology, presenting challenges in understanding possible outcomes. In this work, we create individual-based models of three Washington state counties to explore how digital exposure notifications combined with other non-pharmaceutical interventions influence COVID-19 disease spread under various adoption, compliance, and mobility scenarios. In a model with 15% participation, we found that exposure notification could reduce infections and deaths by approximately 8% and 6% and could effectively complement traditional contact tracing. We believe this can provide health authorities in Washington state and beyond with guidance on how exposure notification can complement traditional interventions to suppress the spread of COVID-19.


2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (13) ◽  
pp. 2761
Author(s):  
Tatiana Filonets ◽  
Maxim Solovchuk ◽  
Wayne Gao ◽  
Tony Wen-Hann Sheu

Case isolation and contact tracing are two essential parts of control measures to prevent the spread of COVID-19, however, additional interventions, such as mask wearing, are required. Taiwan successfully contained local COVID-19 transmission after the initial imported cases in the country in early 2020 after applying the above-mentioned interventions. In order to explain the containment of the disease spread in Taiwan and understand the efficiency of different non-pharmaceutical interventions, a mathematical model has been developed. A stochastic model was implemented in order to estimate the effectiveness of mask wearing together with case isolation and contact tracing. We investigated different approaches towards mask usage, estimated the effect of the interventions on the basic reproduction number (R0), and simulated the possibility of controlling the outbreak. With the assumption that non-medical and medical masks have 20% and 50% efficiency, respectively, case isolation works on 100%, 70% of all people wear medical masks, and R0 = 2.5, there is almost 80% probability of outbreak control with 60% contact tracing, whereas for non-medical masks the highest probability is only about 20%. With a large proportion of infectiousness before the onset of symptoms (40%) and the presence of asymptomatic cases, the investigated interventions (isolation of cases, contact tracing, and mask wearing by all people), implemented on a high level, can help to control the disease spread. Superspreading events have also been included in our model in order to estimate their impact on the outbreak and to understand how restrictions on gathering and social distancing can help to control the outbreak. The obtained quantitative results are in agreement with the empirical COVID-19 data in Taiwan.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jose B Cruz ◽  
Tirso A Ronquillo ◽  
Ralph G B Sangalang ◽  
Albertson D Amante ◽  
Divina G D Ronquillo ◽  
...  

Abstract This paper presents a pivotal restructuring of modeling the control of COVID-19 even when massive vaccination is in progress. A new closed loop mathematical model to demonstrate how direct observations of the epidemiological compartments of population could be mapped to inputs, such that the social spread of the disease is asymptotically subdued. Mathematical details of the stabilization and robustness are included. A new engineered closed loop model is designed to control the spread of COVID-19 or its variants—that is, one input directly increases the time-rate of the compartment of population free of virus, and the other input directly changes the time-rate of the susceptible compartment of population. Both inputs have collateral opposite influences on the time-rate of the infected compartment of population. The loop is closed around the new input-output model and designed so that the outputs reach the desired asymptotes. New surges of disease spread are not possible in appropriately designed stable closed loop models. However, extensive testing, contact tracing, and medical treatment of those found infected, must be maintained.


Author(s):  
Matthew Abueg ◽  
Robert Hinch ◽  
Neo Wu ◽  
Luyang Liu ◽  
William J M Probert ◽  
...  

Contact tracing is increasingly being used to combat COVID-19, and digital implementations are now being deployed, many of them based on Apple and Google's Exposure Notification System. These systems are new and are based on smartphone technology that has not traditionally been used for this purpose, presenting challenges in understanding possible outcomes. In this work, we use individual-based computational models to explore how digital exposure notifications can be used in conjunction with non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as traditional contact tracing and social distancing, to influence COVID-19 disease spread in a population. Specifically, we use a representative model of the household and occupational structure of three counties in the state of Washington together with a proposed digital exposure notifications deployment to quantify impacts under a range of scenarios of adoption, compliance, and mobility. In a model in which 15% of the population participated, we found that digital exposure notification systems could reduce infections and deaths by approximately 8% and 6%, effectively complementing traditional contact tracing. We believe this can serve as guidance to health authorities in Washington state and beyond on how exposure notification systems can complement traditional public health interventions to suppress the spread of COVID-19.


2020 ◽  
Vol 63 (6) ◽  
pp. 1916-1932 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haiying Yuan ◽  
Christine Dollaghan

Purpose No diagnostic tools exist for identifying social (pragmatic) communication disorder (SPCD), a new Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition category for individuals with social communication deficits but not the repetitive, restricted behaviors and interests (RRBIs) that would qualify them for a diagnosis of autism spectrum disorder (ASD). We explored the value of items from a widely used screening measure of ASD for distinguishing SPCD from typical controls (TC; Aim 1) and from ASD (Aim 2). Method We applied item response theory (IRT) modeling to Social Communication Questionnaire–Lifetime ( Rutter, Bailey, & Lord, 2003 ) records available in the National Database for Autism Research. We defined records from putative SPCD ( n = 54), ASD ( n = 278), and TC ( n = 274) groups retrospectively, based on National Database for Autism Research classifications and Autism Diagnostic Interview–Revised responses. After assessing model assumptions, estimating model parameters, and measuring model fit, we identified items in the social communication and RRBI domains that were maximally informative in differentiating the groups. Results IRT modeling identified a set of seven social communication items that distinguished SPCD from TC with sensitivity and specificity > 80%. A set of five RRBI items was less successful in distinguishing SPCD from ASD (sensitivity and specificity < 70%). Conclusion The IRT modeling approach and the Social Communication Questionnaire–Lifetime item sets it identified may be useful in efforts to construct screening and diagnostic measures for SPCD.


Mediaevistik ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
pp. 370-372
Author(s):  
Bernard S. Bachrach

In 1988 Walter Goffart demonstrated conclusively that the authors of early medieval narrative texts had to be taken seriously as people of intellectual substance capable of sustaining sophisticated arguments. Their works, Goffart warns us, were not to be treated, as previously had been the case, as mere naive receptecals of fact and fantasy to be plundered by historians in search of accurate information. In the wake of Goffart’s work, it has become a cliché that text must be treated as text before it is treated as evidence if, in fact, it ever is to be used for the latter purpose. In the generation that has passed since Goffart’s paradigm has taken hold it is rare to find anyone who will read early medieval narrative works, such as those of Gregory of Tours (d. 594), as plain text.


Humaniora ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 13
Author(s):  
Abitassha Az Zahra ◽  
Eko Priyo Purnomo ◽  
Aulia Nur Kasiwi

The research aimed to explain the pattern of social communication on the issue of rejection of the PLTU Batang development policy. It used data on Twitter accounts involved in the rejection of the PLTU Batang development policy. In analyzing existing data, qualitative methods and social analysis networks were used. To see social networks in the rejection of the PLTU Batang development policy, the research used the NodeXL application to find out the patterns of social communication networks in #TolakPLTUBatang. From the results, it can be seen that in the dissemination of social networking information, the @praditya_wibby account is the most central account in the social network and has a strong influence on the social network. The @praditya_wibby account has a role in moving the community through Twitter to make a critical social movement. This means that in the current digital era, democracy enters a new form through the movement of public opinion delivery through social media. Besides, by encouraging the role of online news, the distribution of information becomes faster to form new perceptions of an issue. This is evident from the correlation network where the @praditya_wibby account has correlations with several compass online media accounts, tirto.id, okezonenews, vice, antaranews, BBCIndonesia, and CNN Indonesia.


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