The risks of warm nights and wet days in the context of climate change: assessing road safety outcomes in Boston, USA and Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic

Abstract Background There remains a dearth of cross-city comparisons on the impact of climate change through extreme temperature and precipitation events on road safety. We examined trends in traffic fatalities, injuries and property damage associated with high temperatures and heavy rains in Boston (USA) and Santo Domingo (Dominican Republic). Methods Official publicly available data on daily traffic outcomes and weather conditions during the warm season (May to September) were used for Boston (2002–2015) and Santo Domingo (2013–2017). Daily maximum temperatures and mean precipitations for each city were considered for classifying hot days, warm days, and warm nights, and wet, very wet, and extremely wet days. Time-series analyses were used to assess the relationship between temperature and precipitation and daily traffic outcomes, using a quasi-Poisson regression. Results In Santo Domingo, the presence of a warm night increased traffic fatalities with a rate ratio (RR) of 1.31 (95% CI [confidence interval]: 1.00,1.71). In Boston, precipitation factors (particularly, extremely wet days) were associated with increments in traffic injuries (RR 1.25, 95% CI: 1.18, 1.32) and property damages (RR 1.42, 95% CI: 1.33, 1.51). Conclusion During the warm season, mixed associations between weather conditions and traffic outcomes were found across Santo Domingo and Boston. In Boston, increases in heavy precipitation events were associated with higher traffic injuries and property damage. As climate change-related heavy precipitation events are projected to increase in the USA, the associations found in this study should be of interest for road safety planning in a rapidly changing environment.

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Which Temperature and Precipitation Extremes Best Explain the Variation of Warm versus Cold Years and Wet versus Dry Years?

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-17-0377.1 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 31 (1) ◽

pp. 45-59 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Jian-Sheng Ye ◽

Yan-Hong Gong ◽

Feng Zhang ◽

Jiao Ren ◽

Xiao-Ke Bai ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Model ◽

Extreme Temperature ◽

Climate Extremes ◽

Heavy Precipitation ◽

Ecosystem Response ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Extreme Cold ◽

Precipitation Records ◽

Precipitation Events

Abstract Intensifying climate extremes are one of the major concerns with climate change. Using 100-yr (1911–2010) daily temperature and precipitation records worldwide, 28 indices of extreme temperature and precipitation are calculated. A similarity percentage analysis is used to identify the key indices for distinguishing how extreme warm and cold years (annual temperature above the 90th and below the 10th percentile of the 100-yr distribution, respectively) differ from one another and from average years, and how extreme wet and dry years (annual precipitation above the 90th and below the 10th percentile of the 100-yr distribution, respectively) differ from each other and from average years. The analysis suggests that extreme warm years are primarily distinguished from average and extreme cold years by higher occurrence of warm nights (annual counts when night temperature >90th percentile), which occur about six more counts in extreme warm years compared with average years. Extreme wet years are mainly distinguished from average and extreme dry years by more occurrences of heavy precipitation events (events with ≥10 mm and ≥20 mm precipitation). Compared with average years, heavy events occur 60% more in extreme wet years and 50% less in extreme dry years. These indices consistently differ between extreme and average years across terrestrial ecoregions globally. These key indices need to be considered when analyzing climate model projections and designing climate change experiments that focus on ecosystem response to climate extremes.

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Signals of Climate Change and Spatio-temporal Analysis of Climate Extremes in the Homogeneous Climatic Zones of Pakistan During 1962-2019

10.21203/rs.3.rs-892362/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Firdos Khan ◽

Shaukat Ali ◽

Christoph Mayer ◽

Hamd Ullah ◽

Sher Muhammad

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Extremes ◽

Heavy Precipitation ◽

Temporal Analysis ◽

Significance Level ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Increasing Trend ◽

North Pakistan ◽

Spatio Temporal ◽

Increasing Temperature

Abstract This study investigates contemporary climate change and spatio-temporal analysis of climate extremes in Pakistan (divided into five homogenous climate zones) using observed data, categorized between 1962–1990 and 1991–2019. The results show that on the average, the changes in temperature and precipitation are significant at 5 % significance level throughout Pakistan in most of the seasons. The spatio-temporal trend analysis of consecutive dry days (CDD) shows an increasing trend during 1991–2019 except in zone 4 indicating throughout decreasing trend. PRCPTOT (annual total wet-day precipitation), R10 (number of heavy precipitation days), R20 (number of very heavy precipitation days) and R25mm (extremely heavy precipitation days) are significantly decreasing (increasing) during 1962–1990 (1991–2019) in North Pakistan. Summer days (SU25) increased across the country, except in zone 4 with a decrease. TX10p (Cool days) decreased across the country except an increase in zone 1 and zone 2 during 1962–1990. TX90p (Warm days) has an increasing trend during 1991–2019 except zone 5 and decreasing trend during 1962–1990 except zone 2 and 5. The Mann-Kendal test indicates increasing precipitation (DJF) and decreasing maximum and minimum temperature (JJA) in the Karakoram region during 1962–1990. The decadal analysis suggests decreasing precipitation during 1991–2019 and increasing temperature (maximum and minimum) during 2010–2019 which is in line with the recently confirmed slight mass loss of glaciers against Karakoram Anomaly.

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Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Precipitation Extremities of Eastern Nepal in the Last Two Decades (1997–2016)

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-2784 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Sunil Subba ◽

Yaoming Ma ◽

Weiqiang Ma

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Extreme Events ◽

Extreme Precipitation ◽

Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission ◽

Heavy Precipitation ◽

Temporal Analysis ◽

Extreme Precipitation Events ◽

Slope Estimator ◽

The Impact ◽

Precipitation Events

<p>In recent days there have been discussions regarding the impact of climate change and its vagaries of the weather, particularly concerning extreme events. Nepal, being a mountainous country, is more susceptible to precipitation extreme events and related hazards, which hinder the socioeconomic<br>development of the nation. In this regard, this study aimed to address this phenomenon for one of the most naturally and socioeconomically important regions of Nepal, namely, Eastern Nepal. The data were collected for the period of 1997 to 2016. The interdecadal comparison for two periods<br>(1997&#8211;2006 and 2007&#8211;2016) was maintained for the calculation of extreme precipitation indices as per recommended by Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices. Linear trends were calculated by using Mann&#8208;Kendall and Sen's Slope estimator. The average annual precipitation was found to be decreasing at an alarming rate of &#8722;20 mm/year in the last two decades' tenure. In case of extreme precipitation events, consecutive dry days, one of the frequency indices, showed a solo increase in its trend (mostly significant). Meanwhile, all the intensity indices of extreme precipitation showed decreasing trends (mostly insignificant). Thus, it can be concluded that Eastern Nepal has witnessed some significant drier days in the last two decades, as the events of heavy, very heavy, extremely heavy precipitation events, and annual wet day precipitation (PRCPTOT) were found to be decreasing. The same phenomena were also seen in the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3B42 V7 satellite precipitation product for whole Nepal.</p>

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Evaluation of Heavy Precipitation Forecasts Using Composite-Based Methods: A Distributions-Oriented Approach

Monthly Weather Review ◽

10.1175/mwr2975.1 ◽

2005 ◽

Vol 133 (8) ◽

pp. 2163-2177 ◽

Cited By ~ 16

Author(s):

Jason E. Nachamkin ◽

Sue Chen ◽

Jerome Schmidt

Keyword(s):

Sampling Methods ◽

Warm Season ◽

Heavy Precipitation ◽

Natural Variability ◽

Verification Scheme ◽

Statistical Measures ◽

The Poor ◽

Oriented Approach ◽

Precipitation Events ◽

Systematic And Random Error

Abstract Numerical forecasts of heavy warm-season precipitation events are verified using simple composite collection techniques. Various sampling methods and statistical measures are employed to evaluate the general characteristics of the precipitation forecasts. High natural variability is investigated in terms of its effects on the relevance of the resultant statistics. Natural variability decreases the ability of a verification scheme to discriminate between systematic and random error. The effects of natural variability can be mitigated by compositing multiple events with similar properties. However, considerable sample variance is inevitable because of the extreme diversity of mesoscale precipitation structures. The results indicate that forecasts of heavy precipitation were often correct in that heavy precipitation was observed relatively close to the predicted area. However, many heavy events were missed due in part to the poor prediction of convection. Targeted composites of the missed events indicate that a large percentage of the poor forecasts were dominated by convectively parameterized precipitation. Further results indicate that a systematic northward bias in the predicted precipitation maxima is related to the deficits in the prediction of subsynoptically forced convection.

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Increasing frequencies and changing characteristics of heavy precipitation events threatening infrastructure in Europe under climate change

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ◽

10.5194/nhess-17-1177-2017 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 17 (7) ◽

pp. 1177-1190 ◽

Cited By ~ 14

Author(s):

Katrin M. Nissen ◽

Uwe Ulbrich

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Heavy Precipitation ◽

Horizontal Resolution ◽

European Regions ◽

Event Duration ◽

Novel Technique ◽

Climate Simulations ◽

Daily Events ◽

Precipitation Events

Abstract. The effect of climate change on potentially infrastructure-damaging heavy precipitation events in Europe is investigated in an ensemble of regional climate simulations conducted at a horizontal resolution of 12 km. Based on legislation and stakeholder interviews the 10-year return period is used as a threshold for the detection of relevant events. A novel technique for the identification of heavy precipitation events is introduced. It records not only event frequency but also event size, duration and severity (a measure taking duration, size and rain amount into account) as these parameters determine the potential consequences of the event. Over most of Europe the frequency of relevant heavy precipitation events is predicted to increase with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The number of daily and multi-day events increases at a lower rate than the number of sub-daily events. The event size is predicted to increase in the future over many European regions, especially for sub-daily events. Moreover, the most severe events were detected in the projection period. The predicted changes in frequency, size and intensity of events may increase the risk for infrastructure damages. The climate change simulations do not show changes in event duration.

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Evaluation of climate change influence on agroclimatic conditions of sunflower growing in Ukraine

Ukrainian hydrometeorological journal ◽

10.31481/uhmj.17.2016.10 ◽

2017 ◽

pp. 86-92

Author(s):

О.L. Zhygailo ◽

T.S. Zhygailo

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Comparative Analysis ◽

Climate Change Scenario ◽

Weather Conditions ◽

Vegetation Period ◽

Change Scenario ◽

Forest Steppe ◽

Precipitation Regime ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

The Right

The problem of climate change and global warming both in whole and in particular has become one of the most serious and urgent directions of scientific and technical activity at the present stage. The future food security of Ukraine depends on the effectiveness of adaptation of agriculture to new conditions dictated by the global anthropogenic warming. In order to evaluate possible impact of climate change in Ukraine on agroclimatic indicators the scenario A1B - "moderate" was used providing a balance between all energy sources. Researches of sunflower harvest formation are carried out using a dynamic model of agricultural crops productivity. For a comparative analysis of scenary meteorological variables with previous data the period from 1986 to 2005 is taken from agroclimatic directory of Ukraine. It serves as a base when performing calculations. According to calculations of A1B climate change scenario, periods of sowing and subsequent phases of development will occur earlier than at present, which will lead to reduction of the whole vegetation period at most parts of the area under study. As a result of comparative analysis of temperature and precipitation regime it was found that, subject to implementation of the climate change scenario under study, expected weather conditions will be more favourable for cultivation of sun-flower in the Western and Central forest-steppe, as well as at the Right-Bank Ukraine and in the Donetsk sub-zone of Northern steppe of Ukraine.

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Food safety in the face of climate change

Croatian Journal of Food Science and Technology ◽

10.17508/cjfst.2020.12.2.12 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (2) ◽

pp. 280-286

Author(s):

Oluwawapelumi A. Oyedele ◽

Muiz O. Akinyemi ◽

Tihomir Kovač ◽

Ukpai A. Eze ◽

Chibundu N. Ezekiel

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Food Safety ◽

Food Chain ◽

Safety Management ◽

Heat Waves ◽

Harmful Algal Bloom ◽

Weather Conditions ◽

Heavy Precipitation ◽

Epidemiological Surveillance ◽

Mycotoxigenic Fungi

Food safety encompasses the elimination of biological, chemical, and physical hazards along the food chain; however, climate change, an abnormal change in weather conditions, is a threat to food safety due to irregularities in the elements of weather essential for food production. Such factors include elevated atmospheric carbon (IV) oxide (CO2), precipitation, rainfall, and temperature. Considering that the aim of food safety is to eliminate food hazards along the food chain, it is threatened by climate change in several ways, resulting in adverse effects such as severe consequences for livestock production, harmful algal bloom, mycotoxins (produced by mycotoxigenic fungi on crops), residues of pesticides and tenacious contaminants, and pathogenic microorganisms from contaminated water. These climate changes include landslides and avalanches, drought and extreme heat waves, drought, heavy precipitation, flooding and tropical storms, ocean warming, climate change related acidification, and changes in ocean salinity. Therefore, there is a great need to employ adaptive strategies such as the establishment of a food safety management programme which would expound on the need to detect food hazards in food as a result of climate change. This programme should include setting up awareness for consumers, the improvement of epidemiological surveillance, improved co-ordination among food safety organizations, public health officials, and veterinary officials, amongst others. Thus, to achieve the sustainable development goal two, of eradicating hunger, it is imperative to harness the strategies for reducing the food safety hazards associated with climate change.

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Atmospheric Rivers in CMIP5 climate ensembles downscaled with a high resolution regional climate model

10.5194/esd-2021-49 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Matthias Gröger ◽

Christian Dieterich ◽

Cyril Dutheil ◽

Markus Meier ◽

Dmitry Sein

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Regional Climate Model ◽

Eastern Europe ◽

Central Europe ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Heavy Precipitation ◽

Atmospheric Rivers ◽

Precipitation Events

Abstract. Atmospheric rivers (AR) are important drivers of heavy precipitation events in western and central Europe and often associated with intense floods. So far, the ARs response to climate change in Europe has been investigated by global climate models within the CMIP5 framework. However, their spatial resolution between 1 and 3° is too coarse for an adequate assessment of local to regional precipitation patterns. Using a regional climate model with 0.22° resolution we downscale an ensemble of 24 global climate simulations following the greenhouse gas scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5. The performance of the model was tested against ER-I reanalysis data. The downscaled simulation notably better represents small-scale spatial characteristics which is most obvious over the terrain of the Iberian Peninsula where the AR induced precipitation pattern clearly reflect eat-west striking topographical elements resulting in zonal bands of high and low AR impact. Over central Europe the model simulates a less far propagation of ARs toward eastern Europe compared to ERA-I but a higher share of AR forced heavy precipitation events especially Norway where 60 % of annual precipitation maxima are related to ARs. We find ARs more frequent and more intense in a future warmer climate especially in the higher emission scenarios whereas the changes are mostly mitigated under the assumption of RCP2.6. They also propagate further inland to eastern Europe in a warmer climate. In the high emission scenario RCP8.5 AR induced precipitation rates increase between 20 and 40 % in western central Europe while mean precipitation rates increase by maximal 12 %. Over the Iberian Peninsula AR induced precipitation rates slightly decrease around −6 % but mean rates decrease around −15 %. The result of these changes is an overall increased contribution of ARs to heavy precipitation with greatest impact over Iberia (15–30 %). Over Norway average AR precipitation rates decline between −5 to −30 %. These reductions most likely the originate from regional dynamical changes. In fact, over Norway we find ARs originating from > 60° N are reduced by up to 20 % while those originating south of 45° N are increased. Also, no clear climate change signal is seen for AR related heavy precipitation and annual maximum precipitation over Norway where the uncertainty of the ensemble is quite large.

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Track and Circulation Analysis of Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones that Cause Strong Precipitation and Streamflow Events in the New York City Watershed

Journal of Hydrometeorology ◽

10.1175/jhm-d-17-0199.1 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 19 (6) ◽

pp. 1027-1042 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

Katherine L. Towey ◽

James F. Booth ◽

Allan Frei ◽

Mark R. Sinclair

Keyword(s):

New York ◽

New York City ◽

York City ◽

Warm Season ◽

Heavy Precipitation ◽

Specific Humidity ◽

Extratropical Cyclones ◽

Cool Season ◽

Basin Scale ◽

Precipitation Events

Abstract The top 100 basin-scale 1-day precipitation, multiday precipitation, and 1-day streamflow events from 1950 to 2012 are examined for the Ashokan reservoir, a key water source for New York City. Through a cyclone association algorithm, extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are found to be associated with the majority of the top 100 precipitation and streamflow events. Tropical cyclones (TCs) generate the second-most top 100 one-day and multiday precipitation events, with more than two-thirds of these TCs having undergone extratropical transition. Furthermore, TCs that pass over the region are approximately 7 and 4 times more likely to generate a top 100 one-day precipitation and one-day streamflow event, respectively, than ETCs. Lagrangian cyclone track analysis shows cool season ETCs take a more meridional path compared to warm season ETCs. A composite analysis shows that for the top 100 one-day precipitation events, ETCs have relatively less moisture but stronger upper-level support than TCs. Due in part to TCs, heavy precipitation events occur more often in the warm season, whereas high streamflow events occur mainly in the cool season. Despite this difference, approximately 43% of the top 100 events, which represent many of the very strongest events, overlap for all three metrics. While high temperature and specific humidity anomalies accompany all top 100 events, the magnitude of the anomalies is greatest for isolated streamflow events. This analysis provides a reference to forecasters and water managers regarding the relative and synoptic-scale behavior of different storm types for isolated and concurrent precipitation and streamflow events.

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Impact of climate changes on food safety related issues in the case of Romania

SHS Web of Conferences ◽

10.1051/shsconf/20219501010 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 95 ◽

pp. 01010

Author(s):

Mihaela Cristina Drăgoi ◽

Irina Gabriela Rădulescu

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Food Safety ◽

Climate Changes ◽

Modern Society ◽

Weather Conditions ◽

Well Being ◽

Economic Losses ◽

Main Research ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Health Related

Climate change and economic development have both an increasing impact on human health and on the quality of life. The reverse assumption is also true, since, for improving economic and social development and well-being, the human activity is affecting the environment. This paper presents some of the alarm signals of various international institutions and entities regarding several challenges the current modern society is facing: climate change, disruptive weather events, food safety implications, health related issues, economic losses. Based on previous studies which demonstrated a direct connection between climate changes and weather conditions and the outbreak of infectious diseases and threats for the food safety chain, the main research objective is to determine whether this hypothesis is also valid in the case of Romania. Thus, the conducted analysis takes into consideration variations of temperature and precipitation in relation to new cases of food-borne diseases in order to determine if this connection is statistically significant as it was in other regions of Europe and of the world previously examined by scholars.

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