A Mathematical Model of Humanitarian Aid Agencies in Attritional Conflict Environments
Tools from mathematical ecology in a combat model with humanitarian aid agencies Conflict models have a long history of taking inspiration from mathematical ecology. In “A mathematical model of humanitarian aid agencies in attritional conflict environments,” McLennan-Smith et al. seek to enrich counterinsurgency (COIN) warfare models to account for modern and future complexities by incorporating nontrophic effects and the functional response from mathematical ecology. The authors consider the application of these ideas in a COIN scenario in which a humanitarian aid agency is present in the conflict environment to support the local population. In this scenario, the aid agency plays the unwilling role of a “hospital shield” whereby it is forced to, or inadvertently, shield combatants or weapons. In contrast to the typical behavior seen in the classic Lanchester system, this model gives rise to limit cycles and bifurcations that the authors interpret through a warfighting application. Finally, through a case study, the authors highlight the importance of the agility of an intervention force in achieving victory when humanitarian aid agencies are present.