scholarly journals Explainable models for forecasting the emergence of political instability

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (7) ◽  
pp. e0254350
Author(s):  
Emma Baillie ◽  
Piers D. L. Howe ◽  
Andrew Perfors ◽  
Tim Miller ◽  
Yoshihisa Kashima ◽  
...  

Building on previous research on the use of macroeconomic factors for conflict prediction and using data on political instability provided by the Political Instability Task Force, this article proposes two minimal forecasting models of political instability optimised to have the greatest possible predictive power for one-year and two-year event horizons, while still making predictions that are fully explainable. Both models employ logistic regression and use just three predictors: polity code (a measure of government type), infant mortality, and years of stability (i.e., years since the last instability event). These models make predictions for 176 countries on a country-year basis and achieve AUPRC’s of 0.108 and 0.115 for the one-year and two-year models respectively. They use public data with ongoing availability so are readily reproducible. They use Monte Carlo simulations to construct confidence intervals for their predictions and are validated by testing their predictions for a set of reference years separate from the set of reference years used to train them. This validation shows that the models are not overfitted but suggests that some of the previous models in the literature may have been. The models developed in this article are able to explain their predictions by showing, for a given prediction, which predictors were the most influential and by using counterfactuals to show how the predictions would have been altered had these predictors taken different values. These models are compared to models created by lasso regression and it is shown that they have at least as good predictive power but that their predictions can be more readily explained. Because policy makers are more likely to be influenced by models whose predictions can explained, the more interpretable a model is the more likely it is to influence policy.

Author(s):  
Evika Karamagioli ◽  
Eleni-Revekka Staiou ◽  
Dimitris Gouscos

The objective of this article is to present four civil society initiatives that attempt to scrutinize government spending using open data from the Greek government OpenGov initiative Diavgeia project (“diavgeia”, in Greek, standing for lucidity). In a period of strong economic recession, Greece is facing one of the most intense social and political crisis of its history, with citizens characterized by substantial disenchantment with politics and a cynical stance about their government and representatives. The Diavgeia project was launched in 2010 by the Greek government with the objective to bring back transparency and trust in the political process, enabling online insights into government spending. By reviewing current bottom-up initiatives in Greece that are using data from Diavgeia in an effort to serve the principles of transparency, openness, and offering public data in a manner easy to understand, evaluate and re-use, we discuss the role of open government mechanisms in introducing a new relation between citizens and policy-makers, tackling contemporary political challenges of democratic societies and reconnecting ordinary people with politics and policy-making.


2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 170-183
Author(s):  
Izabella Sikorska-Wolak ◽  
Jan Zawadka ◽  
Krystyna Krzyżanowska

SummarySubject and purpose of work: The subject of the paper is entrepreneurship development and its determinants, with particular attention to the investment attractiveness of Polish provinces. The purpose of the paper is to identify the level of entrepreneurship development (between 2009 and 2017) and investment attractiveness (between 2009 and 2016) of individual provinces, and to define the correlation between the two features.Materials and methods: The authors of this paper analysed the literature on the subject and performed desk research using data from reports and studies published by GUS (Statistics Poland), PAPR (Polish Agency for Enterprise Development) and IBnGR (Gdańsk Institute for Market Economics).Results: In 2017, the number of SMEs* in Poland increased by over 24% in relation to 2009. The results showed a significant inversely proportional correlation between the number of enterprises per 1000 inhabitants and the one-year survival rate for the enterprises. The investment attractiveness of provinces was diverse. The level of investment attractiveness exerted a considerable influence on enterprise development in individual provinces.Conclusions: The results of the study showed that both the investment attractiveness and entrepreneurship are diverse in individual regions. A significant correlation was found between these two phenomena. Some exceptions to the rule were identified, which can be explained by divergence.


Safety ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 8
Author(s):  
Francisco Javier Camacho-Torregrosa ◽  
David Llopis-Castelló ◽  
Griselda López-Maldonado ◽  
Alfredo García

In Spain, a new challenge is emerging due to the increase of many recreational bicyclists on two-lane rural roads. These facilities have been mainly designed for motorized vehicles, so the coexistence of cyclists and drivers produces an impact, in terms of road safety and operation. In order to analyze the occurrence of crashes and enhance safety for bicycling, it is crucial to know the cycling volume. Standard procedures recommend using data from permanent stations and temporary short counts, but bicycle volumes are rarely monitored in rural roads. However, bicyclists tend to track their leisure and exercise activities with fitness apps that use GPS. In this context, this research aims at analyzing the daily and seasonal variability of the Strava Usage Rate (SUR), defined as the proportion of bicyclists using the Strava app along a certain segment on rural highways, to estimate the Annual Average Daily Bicycle (AADB) volume on rural roads. The findings of this study offer possible solutions to policy makers in terms of planning and design of the cycling network. Moreover, the use of crowdsourced data from the Strava app will potentially save costs to public agencies, since public data could replace costly counting campaigns.


2015 ◽  
pp. 1149-1165
Author(s):  
Evika Karamagioli ◽  
Eleni-Revekka Staiou ◽  
Dimitris Gouscos

The objective of this article is to present four civil society initiatives that attempt to scrutinize government spending using open data from the Greek government OpenGov initiative Diavgeia project (“diavgeia”, in Greek, standing for lucidity). In a period of strong economic recession, Greece is facing one of the most intense social and political crisis of its history, with citizens characterized by substantial disenchantment with politics and a cynical stance about their government and representatives. The Diavgeia project was launched in 2010 by the Greek government with the objective to bring back transparency and trust in the political process, enabling online insights into government spending. By reviewing current bottom-up initiatives in Greece that are using data from Diavgeia in an effort to serve the principles of transparency, openness, and offering public data in a manner easy to understand, evaluate and re-use, we discuss the role of open government mechanisms in introducing a new relation between citizens and policy-makers, tackling contemporary political challenges of democratic societies and reconnecting ordinary people with politics and policy-making.


2015 ◽  
pp. 866-883
Author(s):  
Evika Karamagioli ◽  
Eleni-Revekka Staiou ◽  
Dimitris Gouscos

The objective of this article is to present four civil society initiatives that attempt to scrutinize government spending using open data from the Greek government OpenGov initiative Diavgeia project (“diavgeia”, in Greek, standing for lucidity). In a period of strong economic recession, Greece is facing one of the most intense social and political crisis of its history, with citizens characterized by substantial disenchantment with politics and a cynical stance about their government and representatives. The Diavgeia project was launched in 2010 by the Greek government with the objective to bring back transparency and trust in the political process, enabling online insights into government spending. By reviewing current bottom-up initiatives in Greece that are using data from Diavgeia in an effort to serve the principles of transparency, openness, and offering public data in a manner easy to understand, evaluate and re-use, we discuss the role of open government mechanisms in introducing a new relation between citizens and policy-makers, tackling contemporary political challenges of democratic societies and reconnecting ordinary people with politics and policy-making.


Author(s):  
Olof Thoreson ◽  
Anna Aminoff ◽  
Catharina Parai

Abstract Aim: The one-year prevalence of diagnosed nonspecific back pain in Sweden is not known. Thus, this observational register-based study aimed to evaluate this prevalence by using data from the Region Västra Götaland, inhabiting 1.7 million people. Methods: Data from 2014 to 2018 were extracted from the VEGA database register. This register holds all health data from the publicly funded health care establishments in Region Västra Götaland. Aggregated data are presented as the one-year prevalence of unique individuals diagnosed with nonspecific back pain (i.e., the ICD-10 code M54). Stratification by health care level, gender, age, and M54 sub-diagnoses were made. Findings: Between 2014 and 2018, the annual prevalence of diagnosed nonspecific back pain in public primary health care increased from 4.8% to 6.0% (26% increase, P < 0.001, CI 25–27%). In 2018, the one-year prevalence was 7.2% among women and 4.8% among men (50% difference, P = 0.001, CI 49–52%). The one-year prevalence increased by age, and the highest figure (11%) was seen in the age group of 80–84. Low back pain, M54.5, was the most common sub-diagnosis. The one-year prevalence was significantly higher (P < 0.001) among women in all the M54 sub-diagnoses. Conclusion: The one-year prevalence of diagnosed nonspecific back pain was 6% in public primary health care in 2018 and has increased since 2014. Women were diagnosed considerably more frequently than men. Publicly funded rehabilitation efforts, as well as actions focusing on the prevention of back pain, is probably money well spent.


2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 2300
Author(s):  
Wioletta Szczurek ◽  
Mariusz Gąsior ◽  
Michał Skrzypek ◽  
Bożena Szyguła-Jurkiewicz

This prospective study aimed to determine the effect of adding apelin to the MAGGIC (Meta-Analysis Global Group In Chronic Heart Failure) and HFSS (Heart Failure Survival Score) scales for predicting one-year mortality in 240 ambulatory patients accepted for heart transplantation (HT) between 2015–2017. The study also investigated whether the combination of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) with MAGGIC or HFSS improves the ability of these scales to effectively separate one-year survivors from non-survivors on the HT waiting list. The median age of the patients was 58.0 (51.50.0–64.0) years and 212 (88.3%) of them were male. Within a one year follow-up, 75 (31.2%) patients died. The area under the curves (AUC) for baseline parameters was as follows—0.7350 for HFSS, 0.7230 for MAGGIC, 0.7992 for apelin and 0.7028 for NT-proBNP. The HFSS-apelin score generated excellent power to predict the one-year survival, with the AUC of 0.8633 and a high sensitivity and specificity (80% and 78%, respectively). The predictive accuracy of MAGGIC-apelin score was also excellent (AUC: 0.8523, sensitivity of 75%, specificity of 79%). The addition of NT-proBNP to the HFSS model slightly improved the predictive power of this scale (AUCHFFSS-NT-proBNP: 0.7665, sensitivity 83%, specificity 60%), while it did not affect the prognostic strength of MAGGIC (AUCMAGGIC-NT-proBNP: 0.738, sensitivity 71%, specificity 69%). In conclusion, the addition of apelin to the HFSS and MAGGIC models significantly improved their ability to predict the one-year survival in patients with advanced HF. The MAGGIC-apelin and HFSS-apelin scores provide simple and powerful methods for risk stratification in end-stage HF patients. NT-proBNP slightly improved the prognostic power of HFSS, while it did not affect the predictive power of MAGGIC.


1997 ◽  
Vol 74 (2) ◽  
pp. 331-347 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carl Patrick Burrowes

Using data drawn from Liberia, West Africa (1830 to 1847), this study tested two propositions offered by historian John D. Stevens concerning a possible correlation between legal restrictions on the press and cultural homogeneity on the one hand and a lack of economic development on the other. Although Liberia seemed to meet both criteria suggested by Stevens, an outbreak of social tensions in 1840 did not lead to restrictions on the opposition Africa's Luminary newspaper, despite the existence of a sedition law. In conclusion, it is argued that the week predictive power of these propositions was due large to imprecise definitions of key terms.


2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (5) ◽  
pp. 449-452
Author(s):  
Alan MacLeod ◽  
Nicola Spence

COVID 19 has raised the profile of biosecurity. However, biosecurity is not only about protecting human life. This issue brings together mini-reviews examining recent developments and thinking around some of the tools, behaviours and concepts around biosecurity. They illustrate the multi-disciplinary nature of the subject, demonstrating the interface between research and policy. Biosecurity practices aim to prevent the spread of harmful organisms; recognising that 2020 is the International Year of Plant Health, several focus on plant biosecurity although invasive species and animal health concerns are also captured. The reviews show progress in developing early warning systems and that plant protection organisations are increasingly using tools that compare multiple pest threats to prioritise responses. The bespoke modelling of threats can inform risk management responses and synergies between meteorology and biosecurity provide opportunities for increased collaboration. There is scope to develop more generic models, increasing their accessibility to policy makers. Recent research can improve pest surveillance programs accounting for real-world constraints. Social science examining individual farmer behaviours has informed biosecurity policy; taking a broader socio-cultural approach to better understand farming networks has the potential to change behaviours in a new way. When encouraging public recreationists to adopt positive biosecurity behaviours communications must align with their values. Bringing together the human, animal, plant and environmental health sectors to address biosecurity risks in a common and systematic manner within the One Biosecurity concept can be achieved through multi-disciplinary working involving the life, physical and social sciences with the support of legislative bodies and the public.


2007 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 4-7
Author(s):  
Christopher R. Brigham ◽  
Jenny Walker

Abstract Rating patients with head trauma and multiple neurological injuries can be challenging. The AMA Guides to the Evaluation of Permanent Impairment (AMA Guides), Fifth Edition, Section 13.2, Criteria for Rating Impairment Due to Central Nervous System Disorders, outlines the process to rate impairment due to head trauma. This article summarizes the case of a 57-year-old male security guard who presents with headache, decreased sensation on the left cheek, loss of sense of smell, and problems with memory, among other symptoms. One year ago the patient was assaulted while on the job: his Glasgow Coma Score was 14; he had left periorbital ecchymosis and a 2.5 cm laceration over the left eyelid; a small right temporoparietal acute subdural hematoma; left inferior and medial orbital wall fractures; and, four hours after admission to the hospital, he experienced a generalized tonic-clonic seizure. This patient's impairment must include the following components: single seizure, orbital fracture, infraorbital neuropathy, anosmia, headache, and memory complaints. The article shows how the ratable impairments are combined using the Combining Impairment Ratings section. Because this patient has not experienced any seizures since the first occurrence, according to the AMA Guides he is not experiencing the “episodic neurological impairments” required for disability. Complex cases such as the one presented here highlight the need to use the criteria and estimates that are located in several sections of the AMA Guides.


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