scholarly journals Modeling vaccination strategies in an Excel spreadsheet: Increasing the rate of vaccination is more effective than increasing the vaccination coverage for containing COVID-19

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (7) ◽  
pp. e0254430
Author(s):  
Mario Moisés Alvarez ◽  
Sergio Bravo-González ◽  
Grissel Trujillo-de Santiago

We have investigated the importance of the rate of vaccination to contain COVID-19 in urban areas. We used an extremely simple epidemiological model that is amenable to implementation in an Excel spreadsheet and includes the demographics of social distancing, efficacy of massive testing and quarantine, and coverage and rate of vaccination as the main parameters to model the progression of COVID-19 pandemics in densely populated urban areas. Our model predicts that effective containment of pandemic progression in densely populated cities would be more effectively achieved by vaccination campaigns that consider the fast distribution and application of vaccines (i.e., 50% coverage in 6 months) while social distancing measures are still in place. Our results suggest that the rate of vaccination is more important than the overall vaccination coverage for containing COVID-19. In addition, our modeling indicates that widespread testing and quarantining of infected subjects would greatly benefit the success of vaccination campaigns. We envision this simple model as a friendly, readily accessible, and cost-effective tool for assisting health officials and local governments in the rational design/planning of vaccination strategies.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mario Moises Alvarez ◽  
Sergio Bravo-Gonzalez ◽  
Grissel Trujillo-de Santiago

We have investigated the importance of the rate of vaccination to contain COVID-19 in urban areas. We used an extremely simple epidemiological model that is amenable to implementation in an Excel spreadsheet and includes the demographics of social distancing, efficacy of massive testing and quarantine, and coverage and rate of vaccination as the main parameters to model the progression of COVID-19 pandemics in densely populated urban areas. Our model predicts that effective containment of pandemic progression in densely populated cities would be more effectively achieved by vaccination campaigns that consider the fast distribution and application of vaccines (i.e., 50% coverage in 6 months) while social distancing measures are still in place. Our results suggest that the rate of vaccination is more important than the overall vaccination coverage for containing COVID-19. In addition, our modeling indicates that widespread testing and quarantining of infected subjects would greatly benefit the success of vaccination campaigns. We envision this simple model as a friendly, readily accessible, and cost-effective tool for assisting health officials and local governments in the rational design/planning of vaccination strategies.


2019 ◽  
Vol 147 ◽  
Author(s):  
R.M. Wallace ◽  
E.A. Undurraga ◽  
A. Gibson ◽  
J. Boone ◽  
E.G. Pieracci ◽  
...  

Abstract Dogs harbor numerous zoonotic pathogens, many of which are controlled through vaccination programs. The delivery of these programs can be difficult where resources are limited. We developed a dynamic model to estimate vaccination coverage and cost-per-dog vaccinated. The model considers the main factors that affect vaccination programs: dog demographics, effectiveness of strategies, efficacy of interventions and cost. The model was evaluated on data from 18 vaccination programs representing eight countries. Sensitivity analysis was performed for dog confinement and vaccination strategies. The average difference between modelled vaccination coverage and field data was 3.8% (2.3%–5.3%). Central point vaccination was the most cost-effective vaccination strategy when >88% of the dog population was confined. More active methods of vaccination, such as door-to-door or capture-vaccinate-release, achieved higher vaccination coverage in free-roaming dog populations but were more costly. This open-access tool can aid in planning more efficient vaccination campaigns in countries with limited resources.


PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. e0245417
Author(s):  
Nessma Adil Mahmoud Yousif ◽  
Henri Christian Junior Tsoungui Obama ◽  
Yvan Jordan Ngucho Mbeutchou ◽  
Sandy Frank Kwamou Ngaha ◽  
Loyce Kayanula ◽  
...  

Background COVID-19 vaccines are approved, vaccination campaigns are launched, and worldwide return to normality seems within close reach. Nevertheless, concerns about the safety of COVID-19 vaccines arose, due to their fast emergency approval. In fact, the problem of antibody-dependent enhancement was raised in the context of COVID-19 vaccines. Methods and findings We introduce a complex extension of the model underlying the pandemic preparedness tool CovidSim 1.1 (http://covidsim.eu/) to optimize vaccination strategies with regard to the onset of campaigns, vaccination coverage, vaccination schedules, vaccination rates, and efficiency of vaccines. Vaccines are not assumed to immunize perfectly. Some individuals fail to immunize, some reach only partial immunity, and—importantly—some develop antibody-dependent enhancement, which increases the likelihood of developing symptomatic and severe episodes (associated with higher case fatality) upon infection. Only a fraction of the population will be vaccinated, reflecting vaccination hesitancy or contraindications. The model is intended to facilitate decision making by exploring ranges of parameters rather than to be fitted by empirical data. We parameterized the model to reflect the situation in Germany and predict increasing incidence (and prevalence) in early 2021 followed by a decline by summer. Assuming contact reductions (curfews, social distancing, etc.) to be lifted in summer, disease incidence will peak again. Fast vaccine deployment contributes to reduce disease incidence in the first quarter of 2021, and delay the epidemic outbreak after the summer season. Higher vaccination coverage results in a delayed and reduced epidemic peak. A coverage of 75%–80% is necessary to prevent an epidemic peak without further drastic contact reductions. Conclusions With the vaccine becoming available, compliance with contact reductions is likely to fade. To prevent further economic damage from COVID-19, high levels of immunization need to be reached before next year’s flu season, and vaccination strategies and disease management need to be flexibly adjusted. The predictive model can serve as a refined decision support tool for COVID-19 management.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nessma Adil M. Y. ◽  
Henri Christian Junior Tsoungui Obama ◽  
Jordan Ngucho Yvan Mbeutchou ◽  
Sandy Frank Kwamou Ngaha ◽  
Loyce Kayanula ◽  
...  

Background: COVID-19 vaccines are approved, vaccination campaigns are launched, and worldwide return to normality seems within close reach. Nevertheless, concerns about the safety of COVID-19 vaccines arose, due to their fast emergency approval. In fact, the problem of antibody-dependent enhancement was raised in the context of COVID-19 vaccines. Methods and findings: We introduce a complex extension of the model underlying the pandemic preparedness tool CovidSim 1.1 (http://covidsim.eu/) to optimize vaccination strategies with regard to the onset of campaigns, vaccination coverage, vaccination schedules, vaccination rates, and efficiency of vaccines. Vaccines are not assumed to immunize perfectly. Some individuals fail to immunize, some reach only partial immunity, and -- importantly -- some develop antibody-dependent enhancement, which increases the likelihood of developing symptomatic and severe episodes (associated with higher case fatality) upon infection. Only a fraction of the population will be vaccinated, reflecting vaccination hesitancy or contraindications. We parameterized the model to reflect the situation in Germany and predict increasing incidence (and prevalence) in early 2021 followed by a decline by summer. Assuming contact reductions (curfews, social distancing, etc.) to be lifted in summer, disease incidence will peak again. Fast vaccine deployment contributes to reduce disease incidence in the first quarter of 2021, and delay the epidemic outbreak after the summer season. Higher vaccination coverage results in a delayed and reduced epidemic peak. A coverage of 75% - 80% is necessary to prevent an epidemic peak without further drastic contact reductions. Conclusions: With the vaccine becoming available, compliance with contact reductions is likely to fade. To prevent further economic damage from COVID-19, high levels of immunization need to be reached before next year's flu season, and vaccination strategies and disease management need to be flexibly adjusted. The predictive model can serve as a refined decision support tool for COVID-19 management.


2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lisa Mwaikambo ◽  
Sarah Brittingham ◽  
Saori Ohkubo ◽  
Ruwaida Salem ◽  
Denis Joel Sama ◽  
...  

Abstract Background There has been greater recognition of the importance of country ownership in global health and development. However, operationalising country ownership to ensure the scale up and sustainability of proven interventions remains elusive at best. To address this challenge, we undertook a thematic analysis of interviews collected from representatives of local governments, public health systems, and communities in poor urban areas of East Africa, Francophone West Africa, India, and Nigeria, supported by The Challenge Initiative (TCI), aiming to rapidly and sustainably scale up evidence-based reproductive health and family planning solutions. Methods The main objective of this study was to explore critical elements needed for implementing and scaling evidence-based family planning interventions. The research team conducted thematic analysis of 96 stories collected using the Most Significant Change (MSC) technique between July 2018 and September 2019. After generating 55 unique codes, the codes were grouped into related themes, using TCI’s model as a general analytical framework. Results Five key themes emerged: (1) strengthening local capacity and improving broader health systems, (2) shifting mindsets of government and community toward local ownership, (3) institutionalising the interventions within existing government structures, (4) improving data demand and use for better planning of health services, and (5) enhancing coordination of partners. Conclusion While some themes feature more prominently in a particular region than others, taken together they represent what stakeholders perceive to be essential elements for scaling up locally-driven health programmes in urban areas in Africa and Asia.


Author(s):  
Hiroki Baba ◽  
Yasushi Asami

This study examines regional differences in local environment factors to better understand the sustainability of local governments indexed by per capita public spending. Under the condition of heterogeneous population size, we examine how factor characteristics differ depending on the spatial context represented by the urban area category. By employing a Cobb–Douglas cost function with congestion effects on public service provision, the estimated factors enable us to articulate major factors and differences in cost-efficiency between urban area categories. We found that statistical significance and even the signatures of local environment factors differ depending on the urban employment area category. Regarding factors such as the ratios of employees in secondary and tertiary industries, these did not tend to be statistically significant in small-sized urban areas, while small-sized cities in large-sized urban areas were likely to gain confidence intervals. Moreover, we did not observe any statistical significance for the ratio of elderly people due to the balance of spending between national and local governments. These findings could contribute to sustainable management of cities in the advent of population decline.


2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
pp. 205031212110291
Author(s):  
Alison Fixsen ◽  
Simon Barrett ◽  
Michal Shimonovich

Objectives: The non-clinical approach known as social prescribing aims to tackle multi-morbidity, reduce general practitioner (GP) workload and promote wellbeing by directing patients to community services. Usual in-person modes of delivery of social prescribing have been virtually impossible under social distancing rules. This study qualitatively examined and compared the responses of three social prescribing schemes in Scotland to the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: We interviewed a theoretical sample of 23 stakeholders in urban and rural social prescribing schemes at the start of COVID-19 pandemic. Follow-up interviews with a representative sample were conducted around 10 months later. Interviewees included social prescribing coordinators (SPCs) GPs, managers, researchers and representatives of third sector organizations. Interview transcripts were analysed in stages and an inductive approach to coding was supported by NVivo. Results: Findings revealed a complex social prescribing landscape in Scotland with schemes funded, structured and delivering services in diverse ways. Across all schemes, working effectively during the pandemic and shifting to online delivery had been challenging and demanding; however, their priorities in response to the pandemic had differed. With GP time and services stretched to limits, GP practice-attached ‘Link Workers’ had taken on counselling and advocacy roles, sometimes for serious mental health cases. Community-based SPCs had mostly assumed a health education role, and those on the Western Isles of Scotland a digital support role. In both rural or urban areas, combatting loneliness and isolation – especially given social distancing – remained a pivotal aspect of the SPC role. Conclusion: This study highlights significant challenges and shifts in focus in social prescribing in response to the pandemic. The use of multiple digital technologies has assumed a central role in social prescribing, and this situation seems likely to remain. With statutory and non-statutory services stretched to their limits, there is a danger of SPCs assuming new tasks without adequate training or support.


Urban Science ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 5
Author(s):  
Hadi Zamanifard ◽  
Edward A. Morgan ◽  
Wade L. Hadwen

Modern stormwater treatment assets are a form of water sensitive urban design (WSUD) features that aim to reduce the volumes of sediment, nutrients and gross pollutants discharged into receiving waterways. Local governments and developers in urban areas are installing and maintaining a large number of stormwater treatment assets, with the aim of improving urban runoff water quality. Many of these assets take up significant urban space and are highly visible and as a result, community acceptance is essential for effective WSUD design and implementation. However, community perceptions and knowledge about these assets have not been widely studied. This study used a survey to investigate community perceptions and knowledge about stormwater treatment assets in Brisbane, Australia. The results suggest that there is limited community knowledge of these assets, but that communities notice them and value their natural features when well-maintained. This study suggests that local governments may be able to better inform residents about the importance of these assets, and that designing for multiple purposes may improve community acceptance and support for the use of Council funds to maintain them.


BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. e042034
Author(s):  
Tiberiu A Pana ◽  
Sohinee Bhattacharya ◽  
David T Gamble ◽  
Zahra Pasdar ◽  
Weronika A Szlachetka ◽  
...  

ObjectiveWe aimed to identify the country-level determinants of the severity of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.DesignEcological study of publicly available data. Countries reporting >25 COVID-19 related deaths until 8 June 2020 were included. The outcome was log mean mortality rate from COVID-19, an estimate of the country-level daily increase in reported deaths during the ascending phase of the epidemic curve. Potential determinants assessed were most recently published demographic parameters (population and population density, percentage population living in urban areas, population >65 years, average body mass index and smoking prevalence); economic parameters (gross domestic product per capita); environmental parameters (pollution levels and mean temperature (January–May); comorbidities (prevalence of diabetes, hypertension and cancer); health system parameters (WHO Health Index and hospital beds per 10 000 population); international arrivals; the stringency index, as a measure of country-level response to COVID-19; BCG vaccination coverage; UV radiation exposure; and testing capacity. Multivariable linear regression was used to analyse the data.Primary outcomeCountry-level mean mortality rate: the mean slope of the COVID-19 mortality curve during its ascending phase.ParticipantsThirty-seven countries were included: Algeria, Argentina, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, the Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Egypt, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, the Netherlands, Peru, the Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Romania, the Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, the UK and the USA.ResultsOf all country-level determinants included in the multivariable model, total number of international arrivals (beta 0.033 (95% CI 0.012 to 0.054)) and BCG vaccination coverage (−0.018 (95% CI −0.034 to –0.002)), were significantly associated with the natural logarithm of the mean death rate.ConclusionsInternational travel was directly associated with the mortality slope and thus potentially the spread of COVID-19. Very early restrictions on international travel should be considered to control COVID-19 outbreaks and prevent related deaths.


2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreza Aruska de Souza Santos ◽  
Darlan da Silva Candido ◽  
William Marciel de Souza ◽  
Lewis Buss ◽  
Sabrina L. Li ◽  
...  

AbstractBrazil has one of the fastest-growing COVID-19 epidemics worldwide. Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been adopted at the municipal level with asynchronous actions taken across 5,568 municipalities and the Federal District. This paper systematises the fragmented information on NPIs reporting on a novel dataset with survey responses from 4,027 mayors, covering 72.3% of all municipalities in the country. This dataset responds to the urgency to track and share findings on fragmented policies during the COVID-19 pandemic. Quantifying NPIs can help to assess the role of interventions in reducing transmission. We offer spatial and temporal details for a range of measures aimed at implementing social distancing and the dates when these measures were relaxed by local governments.


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