scholarly journals Expanding or shrinking? range shifts in wild ungulates under climate change in Pamir-Karakoram mountains, Pakistan

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (12) ◽  
pp. e0260031
Author(s):  
Hussain Ali ◽  
Jaffar Ud Din ◽  
Luciano Bosso ◽  
Shoaib Hameed ◽  
Muhammad Kabir ◽  
...  

Climate change is expected to impact a large number of organisms in many ecosystems, including several threatened mammals. A better understanding of climate impacts on species can make conservation efforts more effective. The Himalayan ibex (Capra ibex sibirica) and blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur) are economically important wild ungulates in northern Pakistan because they are sought-after hunting trophies. However, both species are threatened due to several human-induced factors, and these factors are expected to aggravate under changing climate in the High Himalayas. In this study, we investigated populations of ibex and blue sheep in the Pamir-Karakoram mountains in order to (i) update and validate their geographical distributions through empirical data; (ii) understand range shifts under climate change scenarios; and (iii) predict future habitats to aid long-term conservation planning. Presence records of target species were collected through camera trapping and sightings in the field. We constructed Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model on presence record and six key climatic variables to predict the current and future distributions of ibex and blue sheep. Two representative concentration pathways (4.5 and 8.5) and two-time projections (2050 and 2070) were used for future range predictions. Our results indicated that ca. 37% and 9% of the total study area (Gilgit-Baltistan) was suitable under current climatic conditions for Himalayan ibex and blue sheep, respectively. Annual mean precipitation was a key determinant of suitable habitat for both ungulate species. Under changing climate scenarios, both species will lose a significant part of their habitats, particularly in the Himalayan and Hindu Kush ranges. The Pamir-Karakoram ranges will serve as climate refugia for both species. This area shall remain focus of future conservation efforts to protect Pakistan’s mountain ungulates.

Forests ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jinghua Huang ◽  
Guoqing Li ◽  
Jie Li ◽  
Xiaoqin Zhang ◽  
Meijie Yan ◽  
...  

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicole Angeli ◽  
Javier Otegui ◽  
Margot Wood ◽  
Emma P. Gomez-Ruiz

Global change will causes species range shifts, affecting species interactions. The conservation implications of species range shifts are widely unknown. Through forming an ecology-bioinformatics partnership at the National Evolutionary Synthesis Center-Encyclopedia of Life-Biodiversity Heritage Library Research Sprint, we developed an analytical pipeline to test whether global trends are forcing shifts of mutually dependent species in different spatial directions. We calculated potential overlap between dependent species across climate scenarios within protected areas. We selected the Great Green Macaw (Ara ambiguus) and its nesting host tree the Giant Almendro (Dipteryx panamensis) as a proof-of-concept species pair that will be affected by range shifts. We demonstrate with modeling that the Great Green Macaw will lose approximately 64.0% of suitable habitat in future scenarios, while the Giant Almendro will lose 59.7% of suitable habitat. Species habitat overlaps across 85.3 % of its currently predicted distribution and 69.07% of the remaining habitat predicted in future scenarios. After accounting for spatially explicit protected areas networks, only 20.3% and 40.2 % of remaining habitat persists within protected areas across climate scenarios for the Almendro and Macaw, respectively, and 19.9 % of that habitat overlaps between the species. Currently, we are conducting a literature review to select and expand our list of species for use in the pipeline to detect trends for climate readiness planning in protected areas networks. The analytical pipeline will produce habitat suitability maps for multiple climate scenarios based on current distributions, and these maps will potentially be embedded into the Encyclopedia of Life as free, downloadable files. This is just one of several broader impact products from the research. This work demonstrates that modeling the future distribution of species is limited by biotic interactions and conservation planning should account for climate change scenarios.


Author(s):  
Nicole F. Angeli ◽  
Javier Otegui ◽  
Margot Wood ◽  
Emma P. Gomez-Ruiz

Global change will causes species range shifts, affecting species interactions. The conservation implications of species range shifts are widely unknown. Through forming an ecology-bioinformatics partnership at the National Evolutionary Synthesis Center-Encyclopedia of Life-Biodiversity Heritage Library Research Sprint, we developed an analytical pipeline to test whether global trends are forcing shifts of mutually dependent species in different spatial directions. We calculated potential overlap between dependent species across climate scenarios within protected areas. We selected the Great Green Macaw (Ara ambiguus) and its nesting host tree the Giant Almendro (Dipteryx panamensis) as a proof-of-concept species pair that will be affected by range shifts. We demonstrate with modeling that the Great Green Macaw will lose approximately 64.0% of suitable habitat in future scenarios, while the Giant Almendro will lose 59.7% of suitable habitat. Species habitat overlaps across 85.3 % of its currently predicted distribution and 69.07% of the remaining habitat predicted in future scenarios. After accounting for spatially explicit protected areas networks, only 20.3% and 40.2 % of remaining habitat persists within protected areas across climate scenarios for the Almendro and Macaw, respectively, and 19.9 % of that habitat overlaps between the species. Currently, we are conducting a literature review to select and expand our list of species for use in the pipeline to detect trends for climate readiness planning in protected areas networks. The analytical pipeline will produce habitat suitability maps for multiple climate scenarios based on current distributions, and these maps will potentially be embedded into the Encyclopedia of Life as free, downloadable files. This is just one of several broader impact products from the research. This work demonstrates that modeling the future distribution of species is limited by biotic interactions and conservation planning should account for climate change scenarios.


2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicole F. Angeli ◽  
Javier Otegui ◽  
Margot Wood ◽  
Emma P. Gomez-Ruiz

Global change will causes species range shifts, affecting species interactions. The conservation implications of species range shifts are widely unknown. Through forming an ecology-bioinformatics partnership at the National Evolutionary Synthesis Center-Encyclopedia of Life-Biodiversity Heritage Library Research Sprint, we developed an analytical pipeline to test whether global trends are forcing shifts of mutually dependent species in different spatial directions. We calculated potential overlap between dependent species across climate scenarios within protected areas. We selected the Great Green Macaw (Ara ambiguus) and its nesting host tree the Giant Almendro (Dipteryx panamensis) as a proof-of-concept species pair that will be affected by range shifts. We demonstrate with modeling that the Great Green Macaw will lose approximately 64.0% of suitable habitat in future scenarios, while the Giant Almendro will lose 59.7% of suitable habitat. Species habitat overlaps across 85.3 % of its currently predicted distribution and 69.07% of the remaining habitat predicted in future scenarios. After accounting for spatially explicit protected areas networks, only 20.3% and 40.2 % of remaining habitat persists within protected areas across climate scenarios for the Almendro and Macaw, respectively, and 19.9 % of that habitat overlaps between the species. Currently, we are conducting a literature review to select and expand our list of species for use in the pipeline to detect trends for climate readiness planning in protected areas networks. The analytical pipeline will produce habitat suitability maps for multiple climate scenarios based on current distributions, and these maps will potentially be embedded into the Encyclopedia of Life as free, downloadable files. This is just one of several broader impact products from the research. This work demonstrates that modeling the future distribution of species is limited by biotic interactions and conservation planning should account for climate change scenarios.


2021 ◽  
Vol 36 (5) ◽  
pp. 1423-1439
Author(s):  
Sabine Fink ◽  
Christoph Scheidegger

Abstract Context Riparian areas are considered to undergo major alterations under changing climate, making floodplain habitats targets for conservation and landscape planning. Protected areas might provide sanctuaries especially for sessile riparian plant species, but these niches are not always persistent over time. Objectives We investigate if plant species of floodplain forests are provided with suitable habitat within currently protected areas and if these refugia persist. A coupled-modelling approach is used to gain spatially explicit information on new areas for sanctuaries. Methods We use species distribution models to predict the niche of 12 Salicion albae and 7 Fraxinion floodplain forest species along rivers in Switzerland, under current, moderate and extreme climate change scenarios up to 80 years to the future (2100). The spread of plant species from current habitat to suitable future habitat is simulated using dispersal vectors and life history traits. Results Salicion albae species are more flexible under both climate change scenarios than Fraxinion species. The main limitation for the spread of species is their dispersal ability, as only a minority of the suitable cells is colonized during the simulation process. The predicted future presence within currently protected areas decreases under both climate change scenarios in the model. Conclusions Current protected floodplains do not provide persistent refugia for the plants studied, but might still be of importance to other organisms. Planning of sanctuaries for riparian plant species and communities need to focus on connectivity along rivers to maintain viable source populations in dynamic riverine landscapes under changing climate.


2021 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 1357
Author(s):  
Ewelina A. Klupczyńska ◽  
Tomasz A. Pawłowski

Environmental conditions are the basis of plant reproduction and are the critical factors controlling seed dormancy and germination. Global climate change is currently affecting environmental conditions and changing the reproduction of plants from seeds. Disturbances in germination will cause disturbances in the diversity of plant communities. Models developed for climate change scenarios show that some species will face a significant decrease in suitable habitat area. Dormancy is an adaptive mechanism that affects the probability of survival of a species. The ability of seeds of many plant species to survive until dormancy recedes and meet the requirements for germination is an adaptive strategy that can act as a buffer against the negative effects of environmental heterogeneity. The influence of temperature and humidity on seed dormancy status underlines the need to understand how changing environmental conditions will affect seed germination patterns. Knowledge of these processes is important for understanding plant evolution and adaptation to changes in the habitat. The network of genes controlling seed dormancy under the influence of environmental conditions is not fully characterized. Integrating research techniques from different disciplines of biology could aid understanding of the mechanisms of the processes controlling seed germination. Transcriptomics, proteomics, epigenetics, and other fields provide researchers with new opportunities to understand the many processes of plant life. This paper focuses on presenting the adaptation mechanism of seed dormancy and germination to the various environments, with emphasis on their prospective roles in adaptation to the changing climate.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kirsti Hakala ◽  
Nans Addor ◽  
Thibault Gobbe ◽  
Johann Ruffieux ◽  
Jan Seibert

Abstract. Anticipating and adapting to climate change impacts on water resources requires a detailed understanding of future hydroclimatic changes and of stakeholders' vulnerability to these changes. However, climate change impact studies are often conducted at a spatial scale that is too coarse to capture the specificity of individual catchments, and more importantly, the changes they focus on are not necessarily the changes most critical to stakeholders. While recent studies have combined hydrological and electricity market modeling, they tend to aggregate all climate impacts by focusing solely on reservoir profitability, and thereby provide limited insights into climate change adaptation. Here, we collaborated with Groupe E, a hydropower company operating several reservoirs in the Swiss pre-Alps and worked with them to produce hydroclimatic projections tailored to support their upcoming water concession negotiations. We started by identifying the vulnerabilities of their activities to climate change and then together chose streamflow and energy indices to characterize the associated risks. We provided Groupe E with figures showing the projected climate change impacts, which were refined over several meetings. The selected indices enabled us to simultaneously assess a variety of impacts induced by changes on i) the seasonal water volume distribution, ii) low flows, iii) high flows, and iv) energy demand. We were hence able to identify key opportunities (e.g., the future increase of reservoir inflow in winter, when electricity prices are historically high) and risks (e.g., the expected increase of consecutive days of low flows in summer and fall, which is likely to make it more difficult to meet residual flow requirements). This study highlights that the hydrological opportunities and risks associated with reservoir management in a changing climate depend on a range of factors beyond those covered by traditional impact studies. We also illustrate the importance of identifying stakeholder needs and using them to inform the production of climate impact projections. Our user-centered approach is transferable to other impact modeling studies, in the field of water resources and beyond.


Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (23) ◽  
pp. 3358
Author(s):  
Patrik Sleziak ◽  
Roman Výleta ◽  
Kamila Hlavčová ◽  
Michaela Danáčová ◽  
Milica Aleksić ◽  
...  

The changing climate is a concern with regard to sustainable water resources. Projections of the runoff in future climate conditions are needed for long-term planning of water resources and flood protection. In this study, we evaluate the possible climate change impacts on the runoff regime in eight selected basins located in the whole territory of Slovakia. The projected runoff in the basins studied for the reference period (1981–2010) and three future time horizons (2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100) was simulated using the HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning) bucket-type model (the TUW (Technische Universität Wien) model). A calibration strategy based on the selection of the most suitable decade in the observation period for the parameterization of the model was applied. The model was first calibrated using observations, and then was driven by the precipitation and air temperatures projected by the KNMI (Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut) and MPI (Max Planck Institute) regional climate models (RCM) under the A1B emission scenario. The model’s performance metrics and a visual inspection showed that the simulated runoff using downscaled inputs from both RCM models for the reference period represents the simulated hydrological regimes well. An evaluation of the future, which was performed by considering the representative climate change scenarios, indicated that changes in the long-term runoff’s seasonality and extremality could be expected in the future. In the winter months, the runoff should increase, and decrease in the summer months compared to the reference period. The maximum annual daily runoff could be more extreme for the later time horizons (according to the KNMI scenario for 2071–2100). The results from this study could be useful for policymakers and river basin authorities for the optimum planning and management of water resources under a changing climate.


2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pablo Medrano-Vizcaíno ◽  
Patricia Gutiérrez-Salazar

Nasuella olivacea is an endemic mammal from the Andes of Ecuador and Colombia. Due to its rarity, aspects about its natural history, ecology and distribution patterns are not well known, therefore, research is needed to generate knowledge about this carnivore and a first step is studying suitable habitat areas. We performed Ecological Niche Models and applied future climate change scenarios (2.6 and 8.5 RCP) to determine the potential distribution of this mammal in Colombia and Ecuador, with current and future climate change conditions; furthermore, we analysed its distribution along several land covers. We found that N. olivacea is likely to be found in areas where no records have been reported previously; likewise, climate change conditions would increase suitable distribution areas. Concerning land cover, 73.4% of N. olivacea potential distribution was located outside Protected Areas (PA), 46.1% in Forests and 40.3% in Agricultural Lands. These findings highlight the need to further research understudied species, furthering our understanding about distribution trends and responses to changing climatic conditions, as well as informig future PA designing. These are essential tools for supporting wildlife conservation plans, being applicable for rare species whose biology and ecology remain unknown.


BMC Ecology ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dol Raj Luitel ◽  
Mohan Siwakoti ◽  
Mohan D. Joshi ◽  
Muniappan Rangaswami ◽  
Pramod K. Jha

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