scholarly journals Multi-state model for predicting ocular progression in acute Stevens-Johnson syndrome/toxic epidermal necrolysis

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (12) ◽  
pp. e0260730
Author(s):  
Fumie Kinoshita ◽  
Isao Yokota ◽  
Hiroki Mieno ◽  
Mayumi Ueta ◽  
John Bush ◽  
...  

This study aimed to clarify the etiologic factors predicting acute ocular progression in SJS/TEN, and identify patients who require immediate and intensive ophthalmological treatment. We previously conducted two Japanese Surveys of SJS/TEN (i.e., cases arising between 2005–2007 and between 2008–2010), and obtained the medical records, including detailed dermatological and ophthalmological findings, of 230 patients. Acute ocular severity was evaluated as none, mild, severe, and very severe. A multi-state model assuming the Markov process based on the Cox proportional hazards model was used to elucidate the specific factors affecting the acute ocular progression. Our findings revealed that of the total 230 patients, 23 (24%) of 97 cases that were mild at initial presentation worsened to severe/very severe. Acute ocular progression developed within 3 weeks from disease onset. Exposure to nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) and younger patient age were found to be statistically significant for the progression of ocular severity from mild to severe/very severe [hazard ratio (HR) 3.83; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.48 to 9.91] and none to severe/very severe [HR 0.98; 95% CI 0.97 to 0.99], respectively. The acute ocular severity score at worst-condition was found to be significantly correlated with ocular sequelae. Thus, our detailed findings on acute ocular progression revealed that in 24% of SJS/TEN cases with ocular involvement, ocular severity progresses even after initiating intensive treatment, and that in younger-age patients with a history of exposure to NSAIDs, very strict attention must be given to their ophthalmological appearances.

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bing Yan ◽  
Fengming Ji ◽  
Chengchuang Wu ◽  
Ye Li ◽  
Haoyu Tang ◽  
...  

Abstract Objective: To analyze the efficacy of multidisciplinary treatment (MDT) for Wilm’s tumor (WT) in Kunming Children’s Hospital, and investigate the risk factors affecting the prognosis of WT.Method: The clinic-pathological data were collected and analyzed in patients with unilateral WT treated in Kunming Children's Hospital from January 2017 to July 2021. Research objects were selected according to inclusion criteria and exclusion criteria. The risk factors and independent risk factors that affect the prognosis of patients with WT were determined by Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox proportional hazards model, respectively. Outcome: A total of 68 children were included in this study, and the 5-year overall survival (OS) rate was 92.65%. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis results showed that ethnicity (P=0.020), the tumor volume of resection (P=0.001), histological type (P<0.001), and postoperative recurrence (P<0.001) were the factors affecting the prognosis of children with WT. The results of the Cox proportional hazards model showed that only the histological type (P=0.028) was the independent risk factor for the prognosis of WT.Conclusion: The efficacy of MDT for WT was satisfying. The histological type has important predictive value for the prognosis of WT, and the patient with unfavorable histology has a poor prognosis.


2018 ◽  
Vol 90 (5) ◽  
pp. 555-561 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcos C B Oliveira ◽  
Helen Ling ◽  
Andrew J Lees ◽  
Janice L Holton ◽  
Eduardo De Pablo-Fernandez ◽  
...  

BackgroundDevelopment of autonomic failure is associated with more rapid disease course and shorter survival in patients with Parkinson’s disease and multiple system atrophy. However, autonomic symptoms have not been specifically assessed as a prognostic factor in progressive supranuclear palsy (PSP). We evaluated whether development of autonomic symptoms is associated with disease progression and survival in PSP.MethodsA retrospective review of clinical data from consecutive patients with autopsy-confirmed PSP from the Queen Square Brain Bank between January 2012 and November 2016 was performed. Time from disease onset to four autonomic symptoms (constipation, urinary symptoms, erectile dysfunction and orthostatic hypotension) were noted. Time from diagnosis to five disease milestones and survival were calculated to assess disease progression, and their risk was estimated through a Cox proportional hazards model.ResultsA total of 103 PSP patients were included. Urinary symptoms and constipation were present in 81% and 71% of cases, respectively. Early development of constipation and urinary symptoms were associated with higher risk of reaching the first disease milestone (respectively, HR: 0.88; 95% CI 0.83 to 0.92; p<0.001; and HR: 0.80; 95% CI 0.75 to 0.86; p<0.001) and with a shorter survival in these patients (respectively, HR: 0.73; 95% CI 0.64 to 0.84; p<0.001; and HR: 0.88; 95% CI 0.80 to 0.96; p=0.004). On multivariate analysis, Richardson syndrome phenotype was the other variable independently associated with shorter survival.ConclusionsEarlier urinary symptoms and constipation are associated with a more rapid disease progression and reduced survival in patients with PSP.


2008 ◽  
Vol 28 (3) ◽  
pp. 238-245 ◽  
Author(s):  
Murat Hayri Sipahioglu ◽  
Aysun Aybal ◽  
Aydin Ünal ◽  
Bulent Tokgoz ◽  
Oktay Oymak ◽  
...  

Background We investigated patient and technique survival and factors affecting mortality in Turkish peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients. Patients and Methods This was a retrospective study. 423 PD patients were included. The demographic, clinical, and biochemical data were collected from the medical records. Clinical outcomes were mortality and technique failure. Results Mean age at the start of PD was 46.0 ± 14.3 years and mean PD duration was 37.1 ± 28.3 (median: 30, range: 4 – 137) months. Diabetes mellitus was the most common cause of end-stage renal disease (35.2%), followed by hypertension (14.7%). There were 89 (21.0%) deaths. 25 (5.9%) patients received a kidney transplant, 74 (17.4%) patients were transferred to hemodialysis. Estimation of technique survival by Kaplan–Meier was 96.1%, 83.2%, 67.6%, 45.8%, and 33.6% at 1, 3, 5, 8, and 10 years. Technique failure was associated with peritonitis rate [relative risk (RR): 3.22, p < 0.001] and peritoneal Kt/V urea (RR: 0.38, p = 0.001) in the Cox proportional hazards model analysis. Estimation of patient survival by Kaplan–Meier was 96.9%, 83.8%, 68.8%, 50.2%, and 40.7% at 1, 3, 5, 8, and 10 years, respectively. In the Cox proportional hazards model analysis, age (RR: 1.01, p = 0.05), transfer to PD from hemodialysis (RR: 1.84, p = 0.03), comorbid cardiovascular disease (RR: 1.90, p = 0.004), serum creatinine level (RR: 0.75, p < 0.001), total Kt/V urea (RR: 0.34, p < 0.001), peritonitis rate (RR: 1.87, p < 0.001), and dialysate-to-plasma creatinine ratio (RR: 6.49, p = 0.04) predicted mortality. Conclusions Even though we cannot conclude with certainty that survival rates in Turkish patients are better than those in the United States and Europe, our results seem to suggest this and warrant further studies adjusted for more extensive demographic features and comorbidities. The factors affecting mortality in Turkish PD patients are similar to other populations.


2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 412-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael J. Leveridge ◽  
D. Robert Siemens ◽  
Jason P. Izard ◽  
Xuejiao Wei ◽  
Christopher M. Booth

Introduction: Partial cystectomy (PC) for urothelial carcinoma (UC) in selected patients may avoid the morbidity of radical cystectomy (RC). We describe use and outcomes of PC for UC in routine clinical practice.Methods: All patients with urothelial carcinoma of the bladder (UCB) undergoing PC or RC in Ontario from 1994‒2008 were identified using the Ontario Cancer Registry and linked electronic records. Pathology reports were reviewed. Variables associated with PC use were identified using logistic regression. Cox proportional hazards model identified factors affecting cancer-specific (CSS) and overall survival (OS).Results: A total of 3320 patients underwent PC (n=181; 5%) or RC (n=3139; 95%) from 1994‒2008. PC patients were older (36% 80+ years vs. 19%; p<0.001) and more likely to have organ-confined (&lh;pT3) disease (54% vs. 36% RC; p<0.001). Two-thirds (67%) of PC patients did not undergo lymph node dissection (24% for RC; p<0.001). Factors associated with having PC included older age (odds ratio [OR] 1.55; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.96‒2.51 for 70+ years), moderate comorbidity (OR 1.95; 95% CI 1.13‒3.37), and surgery outside of a comprehensive cancer centre (OR 1.44; 95% CI 1.03‒2.01). Unadjusted five-year OS for PC and RC cases was 34% and 33%, respectively (p=0.455); CSS at five years was 43% and 37% (p=0.045). On adjusted analysis, PC was associated with comparable CSS (hazard ratio [HR] 0.87, 95% CI 0.70‒1.09) and OS (HR 0.95, 95% CI 0.79‒1.14) as RC.Conclusions: In routine clinical practice, PC is not common. A substantial proportion of patients treated with PC achieve longterm survival. PC remains a treatment option in selected patients with UCB.


2021 ◽  
pp. 084653712110412
Author(s):  
Parvulescu Flavius ◽  
Oliver Matthew J ◽  
Reyna Myrtha E ◽  
Pugash Robyn ◽  
David Elizabeth

Purpose: To identify patient and procedural factors associated with extrusion of the Dacron cuff from the subcutaneous tunnel of tunneled hemodialysis catheters (THDCs). Materials and methods: Single center 5-year retrospective analysis of 625 catheters in 293 adult patients. Patient data included age, gender, body mass index (BMI), and common comorbidities. Procedural details included type of procedure (new insertion vs. exchange), operator seniority, side of insertion, catheter model and presence of catheter wings skin-sutures. Complications were reported as cumulative risk over time and Cox proportional hazards model was used to evaluate risk factors for cuff extrusion (CE). Results: Median patient follow-up was 503 days (188,913 catheter-days) and median catheter survival 163 days. CE occurred in 23.8% of catheters, at a rate of 0.79 per 1,000 catheter-days and a median time of 64 days. It was more common than infection (14.6%) and inadequate flow (15.5%). The 1-month and 12-month risk of CE was 5.9% and 21.3% respectively. A first episode of CE was a strong predictor of future CE episodes. The only patient factor that affected the risk of CE was BMI (Hazard Ratio 2.36 for obese patients). Procedural factors that affected the risk of CE, adjusted for BMI, were catheter model, type of procedure (lower risk for new insertions) and catheter wings skin-sutures; the latter reduced the 30-day CE risk by 76% without increasing catheter-related infections. Conclusion: Cuff extrusion is common in long-term THDCs. The risk increases with obesity, history of previous cuff extrusion, certain catheter models and absence of wing-sutures.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hao Chang ◽  
QiMing Wang ◽  
ZongYan Yu ◽  
ZiShen Zhang ◽  
DeQuan Yu ◽  
...  

Abstract Objective The technique of radiotherapy is associated with the recurrence pattern and prognosis of postoperative treatment for medulloblastoma. Our aim was to assess recurrence patterns and survival in patients with medulloblastoma between three-dimensional conformation (3D-CRT) and intensity modulated radiotherapy (IMRT). To analyze the factors affecting the prognosis, such as the use of 3D-CRT or IMRT, the time interval of surgical and radiotherapy, whether there is chemotherapy and chemotherapy regimen.Methods In this study, 36 patients with medulloblastoma were conducted investigating and data were analyzed from May 2009 to September 2017. The median survival of each group was calculated for different clinical stages,pathological types and treatment methods. The PFS and OS for patients curves were derived by Kaplan-Meier estimation, and which were calculated using the Cox proportional hazards model between the IMRT and 3D-CRT treatment groups.Results Up to the follow-up date, 7 of the 9 patients in the 3D-CRT group had recurrence and 9 of the 27 patients in the IMRT group had recurrence. The 2-year and 5-year PFS of the IMRT group were 74.1% and 65.8%, and which of the 3D-CRT group were 55.6% and 22.2%, respectively. The PFS was significantly higher for patients treated with IMRT compared with 3D-CRT (P<0.05). The 2-year overall survival rates of the IMRT group compared with the 3D-CRT group were the same, the 5-year overall survival rate of the IMRT group was higher than that of the 3D-CRT group, however, there was no statistical difference. The PFS and OS for patients with low-risk groups were better than those of the high-risk group (P<0.05). There was no statistical difference between the M2 group and the M3 group in the 2-year and 5-year OS(P>0.05). There was no statistical difference in the chemotherapy-free group, the EP chemotherapy regimen and the temozolomide (TMZ) chemotherapy group in the 2-year and 5-year PFS and OS(P>0.05). The results of multivariate Cox proportional hazards model analysis showed that the residual, recurrence or metastasis before radiotherapy were independent prognostic factors affecting PFS(P<0.05). Radiotherapy mode was negatively correlated, although there was no statistical significance(P=0.061).Conclusions IMRT can reduce the risk of spinal cord recurrence compared with 3D-CRT, especially the low rate of spinal cord recurrence. The development of the technique of radiotherapy was associated with improvements in medulloblastoma prognosis.


2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gustavo Costa Fernandes ◽  
Mariana Peixoto Socal ◽  
Artur Francisco Schumacher Schuh ◽  
Carlos R. M. Rieder

Background. Prognosis of PD is variable. Most studies show higher mortality rates in PD patients compared to the general population. Clinical and epidemiologic factors predicting mortality are poorly understood.Methods. Clinical and epidemiologic features including patient history and physical, functional, and cognitive scores were collected from a hospital-based cohort of PD patients using standardized protocols and clinical scales. Data on comorbidities and mortality were collected on follow-up.Results. During a mean follow-up of 4.71 years (range 1–10), 43 (20.9%) of the 206 patients died. Those who died had higher mean age at disease onset than those still alive at the last follow-up (67.7 years versus 56.3 years;p<0.01). In the univariate analysis, age at baseline was associated with decreased survival. In the adjusted Cox proportional hazards model, age at disease onset and race/ethnicity were predictors of mortality.Conclusions. Late age at disease onset and advanced chronological age are associated with decreased survival. Comorbidities and PD characteristics were not associated with decreased survival in our sample. Race/ethnicity was found in our study to be associated with increased hazard of mortality. Our findings indicate the importance of studying survival among different populations of PD patients.


2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Maryam Farhadian ◽  
Sahar Dehdar Karsidani ◽  
Azadeh Mozayanimonfared ◽  
Hossein Mahjub

Abstract Background Due to the limited number of studies with long term follow-up of patients undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention (PCI), we investigated the occurrence of Major Adverse Cardiac and Cerebrovascular Events (MACCE) during 10 years of follow-up after coronary angioplasty using Random Survival Forest (RSF) and Cox proportional hazards models. Methods The current retrospective cohort study was performed on 220 patients (69 women and 151 men) undergoing coronary angioplasty from March 2009 to March 2012 in Farchshian Medical Center in Hamadan city, Iran. Survival time (month) as the response variable was considered from the date of angioplasty to the main endpoint or the end of the follow-up period (September 2019). To identify the factors influencing the occurrence of MACCE, the performance of Cox and RSF models were investigated in terms of C index, Integrated Brier Score (IBS) and prediction error criteria. Results Ninety-six patients (43.7%) experienced MACCE by the end of the follow-up period, and the median survival time was estimated to be 98 months. Survival decreased from 99% during the first year to 39% at 10 years' follow-up. By applying the Cox model, the predictors were identified as follows: age (HR = 1.03, 95% CI 1.01–1.05), diabetes (HR = 2.17, 95% CI 1.29–3.66), smoking (HR = 2.41, 95% CI 1.46–3.98), and stent length (HR = 1.74, 95% CI 1.11–2.75). The predictive performance was slightly better by the RSF model (IBS of 0.124 vs. 0.135, C index of 0.648 vs. 0.626 and out-of-bag error rate of 0.352 vs. 0.374 for RSF). In addition to age, diabetes, smoking, and stent length, RSF also included coronary artery disease (acute or chronic) and hyperlipidemia as the most important variables. Conclusion Machine-learning prediction models such as RSF showed better performance than the Cox proportional hazards model for the prediction of MACCE during long-term follow-up after PCI.


Author(s):  
Yuko Yamaguchi ◽  
Marta Zampino ◽  
Toshiko Tanaka ◽  
Stefania Bandinelli ◽  
Yusuke Osawa ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Anemia is common in older adults and associated with greater morbidity and mortality. The causes of anemia in older adults have not been completely characterized. Although elevated circulating growth and differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15) has been associated with anemia in older adults, it is not known whether elevated GDF-15 predicts the development of anemia. Methods We examined the relationship between plasma GDF-15 concentrations at baseline in 708 non-anemic adults, aged 60 years and older, with incident anemia during 15 years of follow-up among participants in the Invecchiare in Chianti (InCHIANTI) Study. Results During follow-up, 179 (25.3%) participants developed anemia. The proportion of participants who developed anemia from the lowest to highest quartile of plasma GDF-15 was 12.9%, 20.1%, 21.2%, and 45.8%, respectively. Adults in the highest quartile of plasma GDF-15 had an increased risk of developing anemia (Hazards Ratio 1.15, 95% Confidence Interval 1.09, 1.21, P&lt;.0001) compared to those in the lower three quartiles in a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model adjusting for age, sex, serum iron, soluble transferrin receptor, ferritin, vitamin B12, congestive heart failure, diabetes mellitus, and cancer. Conclusions Circulating GDF-15 is an independent predictor for the development of anemia in older adults.


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