scholarly journals PEMODELAN DAN PERAMALAN INDEKS HARGA SAHAM GABUNGAN (IHSG) MENGGUNAKAN ARIMAX-TARCH

2022 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 595-604
Author(s):  
Endah Fauziyah ◽  
Dwi Ispriyanti ◽  
Tarno Tarno
Keyword(s):  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
Threshold Autoregressive ◽  
A Value ◽  
High Volatility ◽  
Past Data ◽  
Stock Price Index

The Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) is a value that describes the combined performance of all shares listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. JCI serves as a benchmark for investors in investing. The method used to predict future conditions based on past data is forecasting . Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variables (ARIMAX) is amodel time series that can be used for forecasting. Financial data has high volatility which causes the variance of the residual model which is not constant (heteroscedasticity). ARCH / GARCH model is used to solve the heteroscedasticity problem in the model. If the data is heteroscedastic and asymmetric, then the model can be used Threshold Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (TARCH). The data used are the Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) for the January 2000 - April 2020 period and the dollar exchange rate data for the January 2000 - April 2020 period asvariables independent from the ARIMAX model. The best model used to predict the JCI from the results of this study is the ARIMAX (1,1,0) -TARCH (1,2) model with an AIC value of -0.819074. 

scholarly journals Forecasting Analysis of Share Price Index in Construction Companies Registered in Indonesia Stock Exchange 2015-2019

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 42-63
Author(s):  
Karnila Ali
Keyword(s):  
Stock Price ◽  
Average Method ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Share Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Construction Companies ◽  
Stock Price Index

Stock is one of the investment instruments that many investors choose, both short and long term. Meanwhile, the stock price index is an essential indicator for investors deciding whether to buy, sell, or hold the stock. This study aims to determine what methods are suitable for predicting the Stock Price Index of Construction Companies Listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in 2015-2019. By selecting a model that matches the existing time series data, to evaluate the results of the forecasting, the researcher uses a measure of accuracy with Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), and Mean Squared Deviation (MSD). This type of research is a quantitative study with a research population of 16 companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Only four samples were used that fit the specified criteria, and only five years of research were conducted, namely in 2015 to 2019. data can be seen from historical data or actual data and tested using Minitab software version 19. The results showed that Double Exponential Smoothing (Holt's) and Double Moving Average Method could be used to forecast the Construction Company Stock Price Index. Obtaining the smallest error value of the four construction companies, namely WSKT company with MAPE = 7.3, MAD = 148.8, and MSD = 40506.0 for the Holt'sand MAPE method = 5.3, MAD = 110.1, and MSD = 22006.9 for the Double Moving Average method.

scholarly journals Analisis Pengaruh Nilai Tukar Rupiah, Inflasi Dan Indeks Dow Jones Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) Di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI)

KINDAI ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 542-562
Author(s):  
Delila Putri Syarina
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Quantitative Method ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Sampling Techniques ◽  
Jones Index ◽  
Stock Price Index

Abstract: This study aims to study both partially and simultaneously, large, Analysis, Analysis, Value, Exchange, Inflation, and the Dow Jones Index Against the Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI) on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) and the dominant dominant variable on the Price Index Joint Stock (CSPI)).The method used in this study is a quantitative method and with a population of 10 (ten) years, samples were taken with census sampling techniques of 10 (ten) years per year-end period, research instruments using classical data assumptions - data used using regression linear multiple.The results of this study indicate that (1) Rupiah Exchange Rates, Inflation and the Dow Jones Index influence simultaneously on the Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI) on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (2) the Dow Jones Index is partially related to the Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI) in The Indonesian Stock Exchange, while the Rupiah Exchange Rate and Inflation are not partially on the Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI) on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (3) The dominant dominant variable on the Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI) on the Indonesia Stock Exchange is the Dow Jones Index..Keywords  : Rupiah Exchange Rate, Inflation, Dow Jones Index and Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI)   Abstrak: Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui baik secara parsial dan simultan seberapa besar Analisis Pengaruh Nilai Tukar Rupiah, Inflasi Dan Indeks Dow Jones Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) Di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) serta variabel yang berpengaruh dominan terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG). Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah metode kuantitatif dan dengan populasi sebanyak 10 (sepuluh) tahun, diambil sampel dengan teknik sampling sensus sebanyak 10 (sepuluh) tahun per periode akhir tahun, instrument penelitian uji asumsi klasik data – data diuji dengan menggunakan regresi linear berganda. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa (1) Nilai Tukar Rupiah, Inflasi dan Indeks Dow Jones berpengaruh secara simultan terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) di Bursa Efek Indonesia (2) Indeks Dow Jones berpengaruh secara parsial terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) di Bursa Efek Indonesia, sedangkan Nilai Tukar Rupiah dan Inflasi tidak berpengaruh secara parsial terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) di Bursa Efek Indonesia (3) Variabel yang berpengaruh dominan terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) di Bursa Efek Indonesia adalah Indeks Dow Jones. . Kata kunci :     Nilai Tukar Rupiah, Inflasi, Indeks Dow Jones dan Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG).

scholarly journals KORELASI DINAMIS ANTARA PERGERAKAN HARGA MINYAK DUNIA DAN INDEKS HARGA SAHAM SEKTORAL DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 188
Author(s):  
Yunita Dewi Safitri ◽  
Robiyanto Robiyanto
Keyword(s):  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Dynamic Correlation ◽  
Analysis Technique ◽  
Static Approach ◽  
Stock Price Index ◽  
Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity

Changes in the situation that move very quickly on the commodity market have an impact on financial markets, one of which is the stock market in Indonesia. Therefore this study aims to examine the dynamic correlation between the movement of world oil prices and the Sectoral Stock Price Index listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). The data used is obtained from secondary data in the form of daily closing price data for world oil prices and Sectoral Stock Price Index from January 2017 to June 2020. The analysis technique used is Dynamic Conditional Correlation-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (DCC-GARCH), due to previous studies mostly using a static approach. The results of this study show that the DCC-GARCH value between world oil prices (Brent and WTI) and Sectoral Stock Price Index tends to be very weak. A negative dynamic correlation was also found in the Consumer Goods Sector. This research can be a reference for investors who want to invest stocks in Indonesia by looking at the correlation between world oil prices and the Sectoral Stock Price Index.

scholarly journals PENGARUH LAJU PERTUMBUHAN INFLASI, HARGA MINYAK DUNIA DAN DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE TERHADAP INDEKS HARGA SAHAM GABUNGAN YANG TERDAFTAR DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA PERIODE 2007-2011

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 176
Author(s):  
Rully Putra Surya Pratama ◽  
Indah Kurniawati
Keyword(s):  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Analysis Technique ◽  
Dow Jones Industrial Average ◽  
Independent Variable ◽  
Stock Price Index

This research attempts to influence the inflation growth, the oil price dow jones industrial average to Composite Stock Price Index which is registred in indonesian stock exchange in the period of 2007-2011. The population in this research was the whole index in indonesian stock exchange (ISE). The sample was taken based on sampling purpodive. The data analysis technique used double linier regression. The dependent variable in this research was the growth of Composite Stock Price Index, while the independent variable was the inflation growth, the oil price and dow jones industrial average. The results of this research showed that the almost dependent variable used had effects for the growth of Composite Stock Price Index. The inflation rate growth variable did not have effects on Composite Stock Price Index growth, while the oil price rate variable and dow jones industrial average had effects on Composite Stock Price Index growth. Simultaneously, the independent variables examinedhere had effects on Composite Stock Price Index growth.

scholarly journals HE IMPACT OF INFLATION, CERTIFICATE OF BANK INDONESIA, AND EXCHANGE RATE OF IDR/USD ON THE INDONESIA COMPOSITE STOCK PRICE INDEX

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 42
Author(s):  
Margarita Ekadjaja ◽  
Daisy Dianasari
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Research Population ◽  
Stock Price Index

This research is done with the aim to know whether some macroeconomic variables, which are inflation rate, certificate of Bank Indonesia (SBI) rate, and exchange rate of IDR/USD have an impact on the movement of the composite stock price index (IHSG) at the Indonesia stock exchange (BEI) partially and simultaneously in the period of 2006–2014. The research population is inflation rate, SBI rate, and exchange rate of IDR/USD. Data analysis in this research is multiple regression by using time series monthly data of 2006–2014. Research results show that partially inflation rate gives positive significant impact on IHSG, SBI rate has negative significant impact on IHSG, and exchange rate of IDR/USD has positive significant impact on IHSG.  Simultaneously it shows that inflation, SBI rate, and exchange rate of IDR/USD have an impact on IHSG at BEI to the period of year 2006 – 2014.  Those variables affect IHSG by 58,74%, while other variables affect IHSG by 41,26%.  That information can be used by investors to make decision on their investment.Keywords: inflation, SBI, exchange rate, IHSG, BEI.

scholarly journals Analisis Efek Ramadhan Terhadap Abnormal Return dan Trading Volume Activity pada Perusahaan Yang Masuk dalam Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2014-2018

AL-TIJARY ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-47
Author(s):  
Ahmad Faih ◽  
Rohmatun Nafiah
Keyword(s):  
Significant Influence ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Abnormal Return ◽  
Trading Volume ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
T Test ◽  
Volume Activity ◽  
Stock Price Index

This study is a study of events aimed at knowing the effects of Ramadhan, to companies listed on the Jakarta Islamic Index on the Indonesia Stock Exchange period 2014-2018, using abnormal return and trading volume activity indicators. This study uses secondary data in the form of daily stock price index for the period 2014-2018 , Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) and trading volume, with the population of companies entering the Jakarta Islamic Index on The Indonesian Stock Exchange , The statistical test used to test the hypothesis is the normality test, and the paired sample t-test. Result of T-test on Abnormal Return between year 2014-2018 know that there is no significant influence between Ramadhan month to abnormal return from year 2014 until 2018. While for T-test on trading volume activity between year 2014 until 2018 know that only in 2014, 2015, and 2017, 2018 there are significant influence which means the market responds to the event. The result of the test of Ramadhan event has the information even though it does not happen in every year of the research period, this is because Ramadhan is a routine event occuring in Indonesia so investors have been able to predict how the stock movemonts in Indonesia Stock Exchange.

scholarly journals ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI INDEKS HARGA SAHAM GABUNGAN DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA PERIODE

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Dwi Purwaningsih ◽  
Tina Sulistiyani
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Analysis Tool ◽  
Stock Price Index

This study aims to determine the effect of the money supply, inflation, and SBI interest rates partially and simultaneously on the composite stock price index on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) in 2012-2014, the type of data and data sources used in this study are data secondary data from the Bank Indonesia Annual Report, the Indonesian Ministry of Trade Institute, and Exchange Corner Financial Data. To analyze the data of this study used a multiple linear regression analysis tool that aims to determine the effect of the money supply, inflation, and SBI interest rates on the Composite Stock Price Index using SPSS statistical tools. Based on this research, the research method used in the first hypothesis is the Statistical t test and the second is the Statistical F test. Based on the results of this study indicate that the variable Money Supply has a significant effect on the Composite Stock Price Index. For the inflation variable does not have a significant effect on the Composite Stock Price Index. And the SBI Interest Rate variable has a significant effect on the Composite Stock Price Index. Together these three independent variables (Amount of Money Supply, Inflation, SBI Interest Rates) have a significant influence on the dependent variable (Composite Stock Price Index).

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