A direct measure of subjective business uncertainty

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Glocker ◽  
Werner Hölzl
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Informational Content ◽  
Direct Measure ◽  
Uncertainty Measure ◽  
Aggregate Fluctuations ◽  
Firm Level ◽  
Subjective Uncertainty ◽  
Uncertainty Shocks ◽  
Business Survey

Abstract We present an uncertainty measure that is based on a business survey in which uncertainty is captured directly by a qualitative question on subjective uncertainty regarding expectations. Uncertainty perceptions display persistence at the firm level and changes are associated with past business assessments and expectations. While our uncertainty measure correlates with commonly used alternatives, it is superior in forecasting and suggests a larger role of uncertainty shocks for aggregate fluctuations. Its informational content is highest when considering smaller firms or firms with a low growth rate. Our results confirm the feasibility of constructing uncertainty measures from business survey questions that elicit information on uncertainty of respondents directly.

scholarly journals Large Firm Dynamics and the Business Cycle

2019 ◽  
Vol 109 (4) ◽  
pp. 1375-1425 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vasco M. Carvalho ◽  
Basile Grassi
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Size Distribution ◽  
Firm Size ◽  
Large Firm ◽  
Firm Dynamics ◽  
Aggregate Fluctuations ◽  
Firm Level ◽  
Firm Size Distribution ◽  
The Business Cycle

Do large firm dynamics drive the business cycle? We answer this question by developing a quantitative theory of aggregate fluctuations caused by firm-level disturbances alone. We show that a standard heterogeneous firm dynamics setup already contains in it a theory of the business cycle, without appealing to aggregate shocks. We offer an analytical characterization of the law of motion of the aggregate state in this class of models, the firm size distribution, and show that aggregate output and productivity dynamics display: (i ) persistence, (ii ) volatility, and (iii ) time-varying second moments. We explore the key role of moments of the firm size distribution, and, in particular, the role of large firm dynamics, in shaping aggregate fluctuations, theoretically, quantitatively, and in the data. (JEL D21, D22, D24, E32, L11)

Emerging Challenges and Opportunities of Mobile Commerce in India: A Study on Societal Perspective

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Utkarsh Kumar ◽  
Anil Kumar Gope ◽  
Shweta Singh
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Societal Perspective ◽  
Mobile Applications ◽  
Mobile Application ◽  
Mobile Commerce ◽  
Mobile Banking ◽  
Black And White ◽  
The People ◽  
Challenges And Opportunities

In India, the position of mobile banking was in saga and this time, it is in pic position. The speedof reaching the people is going high and high. This is time of wireless world and sense of prestige; no doubt the mobile commerce is contributing to enhance the beauty of life and playing the role of metaphor and has become the part and parcel of our life. This growth has changed people to do business in mobile commerce (М- Commerce). Peoples are transferring to M-Commerce to attain good and fast transaction into market and saving their precious time. M-Commerce has become distinguished in Indian people, quickly during last few years. Due to large number of mobile application, growth rate in mobile penetration in India is increasing with the rapid speed. The mobile users has shifted to use the android phone from simple and black and white phone and taking the service of internet, the role of telecom companies is also important in the being popular of mobile commerce. Although many people have started E-Commerce but still a separate part of the society feel uncomfortable and hesitate to use M-Commerce because of security problems, payment issues and complexity of mobile applications. This paper identifies facts about the feasibility of MCommercein India today its growth and the Strength and opportunity, weakness and threats lying ahead.

In retrospect: The influence of chief executive officers’ historical relative pay on overconfidence

2021 ◽  
pp. 147612702110048
Author(s):  
J Daniel Zyung ◽  
Wei Shi
Keyword(s):  
Chief Executive Officers ◽  
Empirical Support ◽  
Chief Executive ◽  
Firm Level ◽  
Self Confidence ◽  
Self Worth ◽  
Executive Officers ◽  
Leadership Research ◽  
The Relationship

This study proposes that chief executive officers who have received over their tenure a greater sum of total compensation relative to the market’s going rate become overconfident. We posit that this happens because historically overpaid chief executive officers perceive greater self-worth to the firm whereby such self-serving attribution inflates their level of self-confidence. We also identify chief executive officer- and firm-level cues that can influence the relationship between chief executive officers’ historical relative pay and their overconfidence, suggesting that chief executive officers’ perceived self-worth is more pronounced when chief executive officers possess less power and when their firm’s performance has improved upon their historical aspirations. Using a sample of 1185 firms and their chief executive officers during the years 2000–2016, we find empirical support for our predictions. Findings from this study contribute to strategic leadership research by highlighting the important role of executives’ compensation in creating overconfidence.

Disentangling the role of competition, light interception, and functional traits in tree growth rate variation in South Asian tropical moist forests

2021 ◽  
Vol 483 ◽  
pp. 118908
Author(s):  
Mizanur Rahman ◽  
Masum Billah ◽  
Md Obydur Rahman ◽  
Debit Datta ◽  
Muhammad Ahsanuzzaman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Functional Traits ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Tree Growth ◽  
Light Interception ◽  
Rate Variation ◽  
Tree Growth Rate

scholarly journals The Constitutive Centromere Component CENP-50 Is Required for Recovery from Spindle Damage

2005 ◽  
Vol 25 (23) ◽  
pp. 10315-10328 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yukinori Minoshima ◽  
Tetsuya Hori ◽  
Masahiro Okada ◽  
Hiroshi Kimura ◽  
Tokuko Haraguchi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cell Cycle ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Mitotic Checkpoint ◽  
Loss Of Function ◽  
Wild Type ◽  
Centromere Function ◽  
Dt40 Cells ◽  
Precise Role ◽  
Chicken Dt40 Cell

ABSTRACT We identified CENP-50 as a novel kinetochore component. We found that CENP-50 is a constitutive component of the centromere that colocalizes with CENP-A and CENP-H throughout the cell cycle in vertebrate cells. To determine the precise role of CENP-50, we examined its role in centromere function by generating a loss-of-function mutant in the chicken DT40 cell line. The CENP-50 knockout was not lethal; however, the growth rate of cells with this mutation was slower than that of wild-type cells. We observed that the time for CENP-50-deficient cells to complete mitosis was longer than that for wild-type cells. Centromeric localization of CENP-50 was abolished in both CENP-H- and CENP-I-deficient cells. Coimmunoprecipitation experiments revealed that CENP-50 interacted with the CENP-H/CENP-I complex in chicken DT40 cells. We also observed severe mitotic defects in CENP-50-deficient cells with apparent premature sister chromatid separation when the mitotic checkpoint was activated, indicating that CENP-50 is required for recovery from spindle damage.

A Direct Assessment of the Role of Expectation in Inhibition of Return

2007 ◽  
Vol 18 (9) ◽  
pp. 783-787 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas M. Spalek
Keyword(s):  
Inhibition Of Return ◽  
Response Times ◽  
Direct Measure ◽  
Imaginary Circle ◽  
Direct Assessment ◽  
Relevant Evidence ◽  
Indirect Measures

An object hidden among distractors can be found more efficiently if previously searched locations are not reinspected. The inhibition-of-return (IOR) phenomenon indexes the tendency to avoid reinspections. Two accounts of IOR, that it is due to inhibition and that it is due to expectation, are generally regarded as incompatible. The relevant evidence to date, however, has been indirect: Inhibition or expectation has been inferred from response times or similar indirect measures. This article reports the first direct measure of IOR, obtained by asking observers to predict the location of the next target in a display containing eight possible locations on an imaginary circle. On any given trial, the previously cued location was chosen less frequently (impairment)—and the opposite location was chosen more frequently (facilitation)—than chance (choice of all other locations was at chance). The impairment is consistent with both inhibition and expectation accounts; the facilitation is consistent only with expectation accounts. This work also shows that inhibition and expectation are not necessarily incompatible: Implementing expectations may entail inhibiting previously cued locations.

scholarly journals News-Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges

2014 ◽  
Vol 52 (4) ◽  
pp. 993-1074 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Beaudry ◽  
Franck Portier
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Economic Fluctuations ◽  
Aggregate Fluctuations ◽  
Business Cycle Fluctuations ◽  
Widespread Belief ◽  
Way Of Thinking ◽  
The Many

There is a widespread belief that changes in expectations may be an important independent driver of economic fluctuations. The news view of business cycles offers a formalization of this perspective. In this paper we discuss mechanisms by which changes in agents' information, due to the arrival of news, can cause business cycle fluctuations driven by expectational change, and we review the empirical evidence aimed at evaluating their relevance. In particular, we highlight how the literature on news and business cycles offers a coherent way of thinking about aggregate fluctuations, while at the same time we emphasize the many challenges that must be addressed before a proper assessment of the role of news in business cycles can be established. (JEL D83, D84, E13, E32, O33)

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