scholarly journals Macroeconomic Effects of Trade Tariffs: A Case Study of the U.S.-China Trade War Effects on the Economy of the United States

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (22) ◽  
pp. 305-326
Author(s):  
Sandra Žemaitytė ◽  
Laimutė Urbšienė
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Total Trade ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
China Trade ◽  
United States Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
Macroeconomic Effects ◽  
Trade War

This paper explores the macroeconomic effects of trade tariffs in the context of the recent trade conflict between the United States and China. The focus is laid on two trade war scenarios, and one of them takes into account the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global trade flows. After deploying the partial equilibrium SMART model, the authors conclude that solely due to the trade war with China, in 2020, the US total trade balance will improve by 41,020 million USD (0.21% of real GDP), while 43,777 million USD (0.22% of real GDP) of the US imports will have to be sourced from other countries. The US trade intensity with China and welfare will decline. However, our study has found that the potential economic consequences of COVID-19 will reduce the relative effects of the trade war. The study has revealed that the United States economy will benefit from the trade war, which can be explained by a relatively weak China’s retaliatory response. Nevertheless, the US agriculture and automotive sectors will suffer most.

scholarly journals The Dimensions of the US-China Trade War

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 47-55
Author(s):  
Mohamad Zreik
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
The United States ◽  
Bilateral Agreements ◽  
China Trade ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
Trade War

AbstractThe Chinese Ministry of Commerce issued a statement Friday morning, July 6, 2018, confirming the outbreak of a trade war between the United States and China. The statement came after the United States imposed tariffs on many Chinese goods, in violation of international and bilateral agreements, and the destruction of the concept of free trade which the United States calls for following it. It is a war of opposite directions, especially the contradiction between the new Trump policy and the Chinese approach. The proof is what US Defense Secretary James Matisse announced in Singapore in early June 2018 of “the full strategy of the new United States, in the Indian Ocean and the Pacific,” where China was the “sole enemy of the United States” in China’s geostrategic region. Intentions have become publicized, and trade war between the two economic giants is turning into a reality. This paper will give an overview of the US-China scenario of trade war, then a focused analysis on the Trump’s administration economic decision regarding China, and the consequences of this decision.

Domestic Sources of the US Trade War with China

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (04) ◽  
pp. 5-18
Author(s):  
Troy STANGARONE
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Southeast Asia ◽  
Economic Impact ◽  
The United States ◽  
Full Resolution ◽  
China Trade ◽  
Economic Practices ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trade War ◽  
Near Term

The origins of the US–China trade war predate the Trump administration’s aggressive stance and have their roots in the economic impact of China’s entry into the WTO and China’s economic practices. The recently concluded phase one deal provides each side a chance to cool the tensions, but the politics in the United States likely preclude a full resolution in the near term. Another consequence of the trade war is the acceleration of production shifts out of China to Southeast Asia, but these opportunities are accompanied by greater US scrutiny of trade with the region.

scholarly journals The United States-China Trade War: Empirical Assessment

2020 ◽  
pp. 35-45
Author(s):  
Victor Adjarho Ovuakporaye
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
The United States ◽  
International Economy ◽  
Trade Relation ◽  
Empirical Assessment ◽  
China Trade ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trade War ◽  
The Impact

This paper aims to explore the US-China trade war by looking at various issues surrounding the US-China trade relation. The US-China trade war had been imminent since January 2018, meritoriously commenced on 6 July 2018, which is still ongoing. The US imposed sanctions on various Chinese goods, which was counter by the Chinese side also. Both side have felt the effect of the trade war though China felt the impact more than United States. Though, both nations have recently held positive trade talks which leads to the first phase of negotiation the trade war is still ongoing. If the partnership between the United states and China collapses, this will also end up harming the global economy severely since they are crucial cornerstones of the international economy.

scholarly journals US–China Trade War: Chinese Perspective

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Manjula Jain ◽  
Saloni Saraswat ◽  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Intellectual Property ◽  
Intellectual Property Rights ◽  
The United States ◽  
Huge Amount ◽  
China Trade ◽  
The Us ◽  
Investment Opportunities ◽  
Trade Relationship ◽  
Trade War

The US–China trade relationship has expanded immensely after China’s reformation of its economy and liberalization in 1979. A very huge amount of trade takes place between the United States and China in terms of monetary value and quantity. China benefits the United States in several forms other than just trade, such as US firms seeking investment opportunities in China for their assembly units. Subsequently, China holds a huge amount of US treasury securities, and purchases US debt securities, which helps them to keep their interest rates low. However, even after the development of such a trade relationship, the United States has certain concerns relating to China’s intentions. From the United States’ point of view, China is not involved in a fair practice of trade. China has imposed state-directed policies that bend the flow of trade and investment opportunities. Furthermore, the United States has allegations against China pertaining to the issue of intellectual property rights along with mixed records on implementation of WTO obligations, establishment of procedures for impacting the value of its currency and restrictions on FDI. The United States claims that such policies from China’s side make a great impact on the US economy and thus is the concern of the Congress. The current president, Mr. Donald J. Trump, has pledged to promote the free and fair trade policy. So his administration has taken some severe steps to reduce the US bilateral trade deficit. The president first announced the imposition of tariffs on steel and aluminum at 25% and 15%, respectively. To this action of the United States, China retaliated by raising the tariffs on various goods that are imported from the United States. Furthermore, the United States claimed that it would take actions against Chinese intellectual property rights policies that could be a hindrance to the US stakeholders. Later, the United States released a two-stage plan to impose tariffs on Chinese imports that would directly affect Chinese industrial policies for which again there was retaliation by China by releasing their own two-stage plan for American imports that would adversely affect American industries. This paper is an attempt to analyze the effect of the trade war between the United States and China and briefly discusses about the impact of this war on China and the probable measures implemented by the country.

The US–China Trade War: Impact on India and Other Asian Regions

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 144-168
Author(s):  
Rajesh Chadha ◽  
Sanjib Pohit ◽  
Devender Pratap
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
The United States ◽  
Transport Sector ◽  
Jel Codes ◽  
Policy Responses ◽  
China Trade ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trade War ◽  
The Impact

The growing protectionism globally and the outbreak of a major US–China trade war led Indian exports facing higher tariffs. This article has tried to investigate how India should react to the trade tensions between the two largest economies of the world. This will help policymakers in India to assess the impact of the likely developments and choose between different policy responses. In a bilateral US–China trade war, while both the United States and China stand to lose in terms of GDP, exports and imports, India stands to gain. India stands to lose when the US–China trade war applies also to India, which faces higher tariffs from both. India’s losses increase further when India responds by increasing its tariffs on imports from the United States and China. In fact, reducing own tariffs could be a wiser step. Enhancing productivity measures by raising port efficiency and making trade and transport sector more efficient appear to pay dividend. India gains even more from joining the RCEP-like trading block when the United States and China are indulging in bilateral trade war. Last but not least, US–China trade war seems to affect Asian countries, some positively some negatively. JEL Codes: F13, C68, F14

scholarly journals Impact of Trumpian Trade on Canadian Agriculture: Evidence from Commodity Analyses

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Victoria Flaherty
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Agricultural Commodities ◽  
Chinese Market ◽  
China Trade ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trade War

It is generally understood that Canada’s close trading relationship with the United States helps power its export-dependent economy. This understanding was challenged in the wake of the US-China trade war that began in 2018. The trade war, which created opportunities for countries to fill the void left by American products in the Chinese market, was a chance for Canada to sink its teeth into China’s need for agricultural commodities. By examining Canada’s trading relationship with China during the trade war at a commodity level across five different products, this paper ascertains the factors that determined why Canadian lobster fishers jumped for joy while canola farmers floundered. This examination exposes how Canada-China tensions arose because Canada’s extradition with the US severely depressed its ability to sell certain agricultural goods to China. 

scholarly journals Asia in 2020

Asian Survey ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 61 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Uk Heo
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Trade Dispute ◽  
China Trade ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Future ◽  
Asian Economies ◽  
Trade War

The biggest stories of the year 2020 were the COVID-19 pandemic and a trade dispute between the United States and China. The pandemic significantly damaged the Asian economies. The US-China trade war halted after a phase one trade deal and the pandemic, but the future is unclear.

US-China trade war: Russia's risks

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 56-65
Author(s):  
O. V. Ignatova ◽  
O. A. Gorbunova
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Relations ◽  
China Trade ◽  
International Economic Relations ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Trade War ◽  
The Impact

The article is devoted to one of the urgent problems of the world economy: the trade opposition of the United States and China. Due to the fact that these countries occur to be the largest economies in the world, their conflict cannot in one way or another be reflected in other subjects of international economic relations. The article analyzes the main stages of the trade war between the United States and China and formulates the causes of the crisis.On the basis of a regional approach and analysis of statistical data it became possible to make an assessment of the effects that the US-PRC rivalry has on mutual trade, investment and energy cooperation between Russia and China. It is noted that in connection with the trade conflict, Russian-Chinese relations are reaching a new level of development, the number of joint economic projects is growing. However, the confrontation between the United States and China brings not only opportunities, but also risks for Russia. The authors make a forecast about the impact of the trade war on the economy of the Russian Federation in the short and medium term.

Economic Impacts of the US–China Trade War on the Asian Economy: An Applied Analysis of IDE-GSM

2021 ◽  
pp. 263168462110322
Author(s):  
Satoru Kumagai ◽  
Toshitaka Gokan ◽  
Kenmei Tsubota ◽  
Ikumo Isono ◽  
Kazunobu Hayakawa
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Economic Impacts ◽  
The United States ◽  
China Trade ◽  
Computational General Equilibrium ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trade War ◽  
Asian Economy

In this article, we attempt to estimate the economic impacts of the US–China trade war that began in 2018. We used IDE-GSM, a computational general equilibrium simulation model, to estimate the economic impacts of a ‘full-confrontation’ scenario wherein both countries impose 25% additional tariffs on all goods imported from each other for 3 years 2019 onwards. In our calculation, the economic impact for the United States is −0.4% and −0.5% for China. Some Asian countries benefit from the trade war. As far as it remains bilateral, the trade war is only an issue for the concerned parties. We also ran the US–world trade war scenario, wherein the United States and all other countries impose a 25% additional tariff on all goods. The negative impact on the global economy is –0.8%, much more significant than the 0.1% impact from the US–China trade war. Thus, it is clear that the world cannot afford to engage in a multilateral trade war. JEL Codes: C68, F13

scholarly journals US–China Trade Disputes: Studying Long-Term Trade Patterns

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
K.V. Bhanu Murthy ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Export Performance ◽  
The United States ◽  
Export Market ◽  
Trade Patterns ◽  
China Trade ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trade War

US–China economic ties have expanded substantially since China began reforming its economy and liberalizing its trade regime in the late 1970s. Total US–China merchandise trade rose from $2 billion in 1979 (when China’s economic reforms began) to $636 billion in 2017. China is currently the United States’ largest merchandise trading partner, its third-largest export market, and its biggest source of imports. There are multiple areas of disagreement that preceded the trade war. One ground is that China is buying off American assets. It is also alleged that China violates US patent rights. It is also stated by United States that China has restrictions on US companies entering certain areas in production in China. The scale at which US–China trade patterns are changing and ownership patterns of both countries’ MNCs are changing results in a mystification of trade data due to intra-firm trade imports and exports. This may be a major reason why apparent trade patterns do not clearly serve as a guide for commenting on policy wars. This study examines the patterns in the US–China exports, mutual imports, and current account balances over a nearly 25-year period, to form a view about whether the trade war is justified. The general methodology in this paper has been to use a set of semi-log growth equations that enable comparison of various trade-related variables between the United States and China. The method focuses on the long-term patterns before and after global financial crisis (GFC), in the two countries, with the help of a standard dummy variable model. In conclusion, the US claims seem to be unfounded when studied through the lens of long-term trade patterns between the two countries. China’s export performance is much better. The United States’ dependence on imports from China has fallen drastically. Finally, the current balance of payments (BoP) of the United States continues to remain highly negative; whereas, in spite of the setback due to the GFC, China’s BoP position all along continues to be positive.

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