A new view into political business cycles: Household behaviour in Albania

2014 ◽  
Vol 64 (Supplement-1) ◽  
pp. 201-224 ◽  
Author(s):  
Endrit Lami ◽  
Holger Kächelein ◽  
Drini Imami

Over the last decades, there has been plenty of research and publications on Political Business Cycles (PBC), aimed at analysing and explaining the use of fiscal and monetary instruments to stimulate economic growth before elections, with the intention of impressing potential voters. Previous research on PBC in Albania reveals clear evidence of fiscal expansion before elections, but no significant changes in GDP and inflation as theory predicts. One possible explanation of this result could be economic agents’ expectations, which is the subject of this paper. We analyse consumers’ expectations before elections, the main factors underlying expectations, and the way in which these expectations influence their behaviour toward spending, and consequently the macroeconomic outcomes, deploying standard econometric methods widely applied in PBC related research. According to our research results, households’ consumption spending decreases before elections because of the higher uncertainty about their future economic situation due to the highly politicised public employment.

2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (1) ◽  
pp. 189-215
Author(s):  
Janusz Myszczyszyn

Abstract The post-war economic policy of West Germany (FRG) is largely associated with the so-called economic miracle (German: Wirtschaftswunder) and therefore its causes are the subject of many different analyzes. They include the correlation between the rate of economic growth in Germany and the development and transport potential of transport, including rail and road-car transport. This position prompted the author to try to search for long-term interdependencies and thus verify the thesis using the analysis of time series (1950–1989) available for West Germany and using original econometric methods in this field, e.g. unit root test to determine the stationarity and the Engle-Granger cointegration test. In addition to the introduction, the article consists of three parts and conclusions. The broadest one includes the description of the assumptions and stages of the research procedure and its results, both on the empirical and methodological level. It is based on synthetic theoretical foundations presented on the basis of a review of international literature on the subject and review of the essence of the German economic miracle and the main trends in changes in the field of economic growth and transport development in Germany after World War II. The research presented in this way fits into the principles of the new economic history paradigm, which is still not very popular in Europe.


2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. p56
Author(s):  
Chen Hongxi ◽  
Peng Juan

With the development of the Internet, digital finance provides “efficient, responsible and commercially sustainable” financial services to more economic agents at a lower cost of capital and in a more convenient way, thus achieving the long-term goal of financial services that are both inclusive and precise in the real economy. Social consumption and economic growth are closely related, as the economy increases, so does consumption, and consumption also drives economic growth. By building a VAR model and using econometric methods, this paper empirically analyses that the three factors, namely digital economy development, social consumption and economic growth, have obvious roles and long-term dynamic relationships, but there is no good dynamic cycle between the three factors, and gives corresponding policy recommendations.


2010 ◽  
pp. 78-92 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Klinov

Rates and factors of modern world economic growth and the consequences of rapid expansion of the economies of China and India are analyzed in the article. Modification of business cycles and long waves of economic development are evaluated. The need of reforming business taxation is demonstrated.


2019 ◽  
pp. 5-23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mikhail V. Ershov ◽  
Anna S. Tanasova

Russian economy has reached the low level of inflation, but economic growth has not accelerated. Moreover, according to official forecasts, in the following years it will still be low. The article concludes that domestic demand, which is one of the main factors of growth, is significantly constrained by monetary, budgetary and fiscal spheres. The situation in the Russian economy is still hampered by the decline of the world economic growth. The prospects of financial markets are highly uncertain. This increases the possibility of crisis in the world. Leading countries widely use non-traditional measures to support their economies in the similar environment. In the world economy as well as in Russia a principally new combination of factors has emerged, which create specific features of economic growth. It requires special set of measures to stimulate such growth. The article proves that Russian regulators have large unused potential to stimulate growth. It includes monetization, long-money creation, budget and tax stimuli. It is important that the instruments, which will be used, should be based on domestic mechanisms. This will strengthen financial basis of the economy and may encourage economic growth. Some specific suggestions as to their use are made.


Author(s):  
Oleksandr Synenko ◽  
Kateryna Yarema ◽  
Yuliia Bezsmertna

The subject of the research is the approach to the possibility of using the Solow model to perform the regression analysis on the example of the Ukrainian economy model. The purpose of writing this article is to investigate the notion of regres- sion analysis, Solow’s economy model, algorithm for performing regression analy- sis on the example of Ukraine’s economy model. This model can be adapted for the economy of enterprises. Methodology. The research methodology is system-struc- tural and comparative analyzes (to study the structure of GDP); monograph (when studying methods of regression analysis on the example of the Ukrainian economy); economic analysis (when assessing the impact of factors on Ukraine’s GDP). The scientific novelty consists the features of the use of the Solow model on the ex- ample of Ukrainian economy are determined. An algorithm for calculating the basic parameters of a model using the Excel application package is disclosed. The main recommendations on the development of the national economy and economic growth through the use of macroeconomic instruments are given. Conclusions. The use of the Solow model enables forecasting and analysis. The results obtained re- vealed the problem of low resource return of capital as a resource, along with the means of macroeconomic regulation of the investment process, using which can improve the situation. A special place in these funds belongs to the accelerated depreciation and interest rate policies.


1999 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 44-48
Author(s):  
Suzanne Hanchett

Despite our failures, anthropological thinking has made an impact on development, said Paolo Palmeri (of the Universita degli Studi, in Padova, Italy) as heintroduced the first of two sessions on anthropology and development at the fourteenth meeting of the International Congress of Anthropological and Ethnological Sciences (ICAES) at the College of William and Mary in Williamsburgh, Virginia, July 1998. We have "kept people in the picture," he continued, and we have expanded the concept of "development" beyond mere economic growth. Subsequent discussion at this and a second session exposed a broad spectrum of opinion about the subject. Some expressed similarly positive views, while others pressed urgent questions and concerns about the impact of anthropology on development and, more importantly, the impact of some big development projects on people supposedly benefitting from them.


2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (12) ◽  
pp. 27-31
Author(s):  
Yu. A. Dmitriev ◽  
◽  
S. N. Mamedov ◽  
A. S. Vilkov ◽  
◽  
...  

The article examines small and medium-sized businesses in the system of regional and mu-nicipal government. Particular attention is paid to entrepreneurship as one of the main factors in accelerating the pace of economic growth through innovative transformation of production. This type of activity is of partic-ular importance in ensuring sustainable development of the regional and municipal economy.


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