scholarly journals An ecological view of New Developmentalism: a proposal of integration

2022 ◽  
Vol 42 (1) ◽  
pp. 244-255
Author(s):  
GIULIO GUARINI ◽  
JOSÉ LUIS OREIRO
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Structural Change ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Green Manufacturing ◽  
Capital Controls ◽  
Dutch Disease ◽  
Manufacturing Industries ◽  
Ecological View ◽  
Dual Mandate

ABSTRACT Article aims to integrate New Developmentalism with Ecological View by means of the concepts of Ecological Structural Change (ESC) and Eco-Developmental Class-Coalition (EDCC). ESC means to increase the share of green manufacturing sector in GDP and employment for increasing the environmental efficiency of the economy. Exchange rate overvaluation caused by Dutch disease and growth with foreign savings can harm green manufacturing industries even more than brown manufacturing industries. ESC needs the existence of an EDCC that can be made difficult to occur if exchange rate over-valuation is not removed through taxes over commodities exports, capital controls and a dual mandate for the Central Bank.

scholarly journals The Contribution of Pakistan's Large Scale Manufacturing Industries Towards Gross National Product at World Prices

1974 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
A. R. Kemal
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Gross National Product ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Manufacturing Industries ◽  
National Product ◽  
Official Exchange Rate ◽  
Domestic Prices ◽  
Tax Holidays

Over the period 1949/50 to 1970/71, Pakistan's large-scale manufacturing sector grew at a compound rate of more than 15 per cent. Its share of GNP increased during this period from 1.5 per cent to 9.4 per cent. Various factors contributed to this growth, not the least of which were the various incentives provided to the manufacturing sector via tariffs, restrictive import licensing, tax holidays and an overvalued official exchange rate. Recently, several studies, and most notably an OECD study by Little, Scitovsky and Scott [10] (hereafter referred to as LSS) questioned the meaning of the growth rates and sectoral shares of manufacturing sector when the goods produced in these sectors are valued at prices distorted by various subsidy and trade restricting policies. They concluded that a better measure of the manu¬facturing sector's contribution could be obtained by valuing a country's gross national product not at domestic prices but at world prices—i.e. the prices that would obtain in the country were there no trade tax or quotas.

scholarly journals Oil Price Fluctuations and the Future of Saudi Arabian Non-Oil Traded Sector: An Empirical Investigation

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 217
Author(s):  
Abdulaziz Hamad Algaeed
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Testing Procedure ◽  
Dutch Disease ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Disease Symptoms ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Government

The major focus of this paper is to investigate theoretically and empirically the effects of non-linear oil price changes on Saudi manufacturing (traded) sector covering the period of 1970 till 2015, utilizing structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) approach. The Dutch disease syndrome will be clarified, and the impacts of oil price variations (increase and decrease) are investigated. Johansen’s testing procedure result asserts the existence of stable long-run relationship between real traded sector (MANUFACTURING), oil price increase and decrease, real government expenditure (GOEX), real exchange rate (REX), and the mining sector (MINING). The findings confirm that OILshock(+), and REX influence MANU negatively, while the spending effect, GOEX affects MANU positively. However, this could be attributed to the government efforts to nullify the Dutch disease symptoms. Given, the obtained tests’ results, the exchange rate REX appreciation confirms the existence of the Dutch disease, and consistent with the Dutch disease literature and findings. The Manufacturing sector harmed enough to the degree that government has to subsidize.

Testing the Hypothesis of Dutch Disease in the Bolivian Economy

2014 ◽  
pp. 93-116
Author(s):  
Sergio Cerezo Aguirre
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Natural Resources ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Dutch Disease ◽  
Real Wages ◽  
Sharp Rise ◽  
The Real ◽  
Services Sector

In recent years, Bolivia has experienced a strong inflow of foreign currency due in part to a sharp rise in prices of natural resources exports. This element along with the real exchange rate appreciation has created concern about whether the economy is experiencing the so-called Dutch Disease (DD). Based on conditions described in Oomes and Kalcheva (2007) to detect this economic phenomenon (real appreciation, slower manufacturing sector growth, prompt growth of services and higher wages), this document finds no empirical evidence on this phenomenon. In particular, neither an overvalued exchange rate nor a persistent misalignment of the real exchange rate, nor a manufacturing de-industrialization is observed. The evolution of the services sector, their prices and real wages do not respond to the dynamics of a sector boom. However, the document considers that the presence of this phenomenon deserves close scrutiny.

Lower naira will not offset Nigerian recession risks

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Capital Controls ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Official Exchange Rate ◽  
Multiple Exchange ◽  
Price War ◽  
The Exchange Rate

Subject Pressured naira. Significance The naira has depreciated by approximately 11% on the parallel market since the Saudi-Russia oil price war began, which dashed hopes of OPEC+ supply curbs to stem the price rout amid the escalating COVID-19 pandemic. This has hampered the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) ability to support the multiple exchange rate regime, prompting a sharp devaluation of the official exchange rate. Impacts The naira’s devaluation will accelerate rising inflationary pressures from the closure of Nigeria’s land borders last year. The CBN could impose damaging capital controls once more if the exchange rate falls further towards 500:1. With low funds in the oil savings fund, the authorities will likely limit their intervention against COVID-19 to soft loans from the CBN.

Nigerian central bank faces short-term debt hazards

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Capital Controls ◽  
Financial Inclusion ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Double Digit

Significance Emefiele has vowed that the CBN will significantly increase financial inclusion, recapitalise banks and help the economy achieve double-digit growth over his second term. However, the significant amount of CBN bills in circulation, a key but costly component of the Bank’s recent exchange rate strategy, poses serious medium-term risks. Impacts The CBN's continued focus on exchange rate stability leaves limited space for reducing interest rates over the short term. Effective foreign currency yields of over 10% are appealing for portfolio investors, but a sudden naira slide would prompt major losses. Significant divestment by foreign portfolio investors may make the CBN resort to temporary capital controls to limit damage to the naira.

scholarly journals Remittance Inflows, Real Exchange Rate Movements and Sectoral Performance in Nigeria

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 78
Author(s):  
Afolabi O. Adejumo ◽  
Sylvanus I. Ikhide
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Dutch Disease ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Tradable Goods ◽  
Tradable Sector ◽  
The Impact

The impact of remittance on international trade is often comparable to tariff changes—since exchange rate represents price of tradable goods. The appreciation of real exchange rate brings about increase in relative demand for competing importing tradable goods above domestic tradable goods given demand for non-tradable, since foreign goods are now cheaper in terms of domestic currency and there is high purchasing ability to do so. Resources re-allocation between tradable and non-tradable sector has been significant in Nigeria. Contribution of the agricultural sector to Nigeria’s GDP has shrunk over the years with the attendant threat to food production and loss of employment opportunities. This study investigates the linear relationship between remittances and real effective exchange rate on one hand and the impact of remittances and exchange rate on tradable and non-tradable sector in Nigeria. Employing DOLS regression technique on annual data ranging from 1981 and 2013, The study found that remittances influence performance of tradable agriculture, manufacturing sector and merchandise export sector in line with Dutch disease idea. Also, we found evidence that changes in exchange rate act as a channel of impact of Dutch disease on all sectors.

scholarly journals Oil Price Fluctuations and the Future of Saudi Arabian Non-Oil Traded Sector: An Empirical Investigation

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (4(J)) ◽  
pp. 217-229
Author(s):  
Abdulaziz Hamad Algaeed
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Testing Procedure ◽  
Dutch Disease ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Disease Symptoms ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Government

The major focus of this paper is to investigate theoretically and empirically the effects of non-linear oil price changes on Saudi manufacturing (traded) sector covering the period of 1970 till 2015, utilizing structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) approach. The Dutch disease syndrome will be clarified, and the impacts of oil price variations (increase and decrease) are investigated. Johansen’s testing procedure result asserts the existence of stable long-run relationship between real traded sector (MANUFACTURING), oil price increase and decrease, real government expenditure (GOEX), real exchange rate (REX), and the mining sector (MINING). The findings confirm that OILshock(+), and REX influence MANU negatively, while the spending effect, GOEX affects MANU positively. However, this could be attributed to the government efforts to nullify the Dutch disease symptoms. Given, the obtained tests’ results, the exchange rate REX appreciation confirms the existence of the Dutch disease, and consistent with the Dutch disease literature and findings. The Manufacturing sector harmed enough to the degree that government has to subsidize.

scholarly journals Dutch Disease-cum-financialization Booms and External Balance Cycles in Developing Countries

2017 ◽  
Vol 37 (3) ◽  
pp. 459-477 ◽  
Author(s):  
ALBERTO BOTTA
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Capital Controls ◽  
Dutch Disease ◽  
Capital Inflows ◽  
Development Pattern ◽  
Macroeconomic Uncertainty ◽  
Long Run

ABSTRACT We formally investigate the medium-to-long-run dynamics emerging out of a Dutch disease-cum-financialization phenomenon. We take inspiration from the most recent Colombian development pattern. The “pure” Dutch disease first causes deindustrialization by permanently appreciating the economy’s exchange rate in the long run. Financialization, i.e., booming capital inflows taking place in a climate of natural resource-led financial overoptimism, causes medium-run exchange rate volatility and macroeconomic instability. This jeopardizes manufacturing development even further by raising macroeconomic uncertainty. We advise the adoption of capital controls and a developmentalist monetary policy to tackle these two distinct but often intertwined phenomena.

scholarly journals Dynamics of Change in Pakistan's Large-Scale Manufacturing Sector

1985 ◽  
Vol 24 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 463-478 ◽  
Author(s):  
Usman Afridi
Keyword(s):  
Structural Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Detailed Examination ◽  
Manufacturing Industries ◽  
Macro Level ◽  
Limited Attention ◽  
Industrial Base

Examination of structural change at the sectoral level, i.e. relationship between agriculture, manufacturing and services, is a familiar exercise. However, limited attention Is paid to a detailed examination of the dynamics of structural change, particularly in the manufacturing sector. Possibly, inadequate data, coupled with a limited industrial base, have not generated sufficient interest for examining the structural changes within the manufacturing sector. We have a tendency to treat the manufacturing sector either at an aggregate macro level or at a very limited level covering only a few industries. The limitations responsible for this approach are understandable and by no means overcome. However, since with time the industrial base in Pakistan has widened and the data provided by the Census of Manufacturing Industries improved, though by no means perfected, it is time for greater emphasis on studying the dynamics of the manufacturing sector to get a deeper understanding of its behaviour, trends and directions. This study is a limited effort in that direction.

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