scholarly journals Opportunities and challenges for seasonal climate forecasts to more effectively assist smallholder farming decisions

2020 ◽  
Vol 116 (1/2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bright Chisadza ◽  
Abbyssinia Mushunje ◽  
Kenneth Nhundu ◽  
Ethel E. Phiri
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Smallholder Farmers ◽  
Smallholder Farming ◽  
Seasonal Climate Forecast ◽  
Seasonal Climate ◽  
Farm Planning ◽  
Climate Forecasting ◽  
Farm Production ◽  
Climate Forecasts ◽  
Challenges And Opportunities

The ability of smallholder farmers to utilise seasonal climate forecast (SCF) information in farm planning to reflect anticipated climate is a precursor to improved farm management. However, the integration of SCF by smallholder farmers into farm planning has been poor, partly because of the lack of forecast skill, lack of communication and inability to see the relevance of the SCFs for specific farming decisions. The relevance of seasonal climate forecasting in farming decisions can be enhanced through improved understanding of SCF from the smallholder farmers’ perspective. Studies that have been done of how smallholder farmers understand SCF and how the available SCFs influence smallholder farmers’ decisions are limited. Therefore, the objective of this paper was to review how smallholder farmers make decisions on farming practices based on SCFs and the challenges and opportunities thereof. The review shows that the majority of smallholder farmers in Africa make use of either scientific or indigenous knowledge climate forecasts and, in some cases, a combination of both. There are mixed results in the area of evaluating benefits of SCFs in decision-making and farm production. In some cases, the outcomes are positive, whereas in others they are difficult to quantify. Thus, the integration of SCFs into smallholder farmers’ decision-making is still a challenge. We recommend that significant work must be done to improve climate forecasts in terms of format, and spatial and temporal context in order for them to be more useful in influencing decision-making by smallholder farmers.

scholarly journals Assessment of Knowledge Co-production in Adaptation to Rainfall Variability in Kitui South Sub-county, Kenya

2020 ◽  
pp. 87-97
Author(s):  
Morris M. Mwatu ◽  
Charles W. Recha ◽  
Kennedy N. Ondimu
Keyword(s):  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Study Data ◽  
Climate Forecast ◽  
Seasonal Climate Forecast ◽  
Scientific Methods ◽  
Seasonal Climate ◽  
Qualitative And Quantitative ◽  
Climate Forecasting ◽  
Climate Forecasts ◽  
Household Heads

Aims: This study tried to investigate the extent of knowledge co-production between indigenous farmers and agricultural extension in dry lands. Study Design: The study adopted survey research design where both qualitative and quantitative approaches were used. Place and Duration of Study: The study was carried out in Kitui South sub-County in the semi-arid Southeastern Kenya. Data was collected between June 2019 and August 2019. Methodology: An enumerator-administered questionnaire was used to collect data from 311 household heads. Purposive and proportional sampling techniques were used to select households which participated in the study. Data was analyzed with the aid of SPSS Version 20. Percentages and proportions were used to establish instances of knowledge co-production between indigenous and modern scientific methods of farming. Results: The study established that all households used both indigenous and scientific methods of farming except in irrigation and crop harvesting methods. The highest co-production was between use of locally preserved seeds and use of modern seasonal climate forecast (71.4%), use of traditional seasonal climate forecasts and use of modern seasonal climate (64.6%) as well as use of traditional crop storage and use modern seasonal climate forecast (59.2%). Seasonal climate forecasting was the leading corresponding method of knowledge co-production in the study area. Conclusion: The study concludes that use of both indigenous and modern methods of farming can improve adaptation to rainfall variability. The study recommends access to adequate water to promote knowledge co-production on irrigation which was lacking yet very critical in dealing with rainfall variability in the study area.

scholarly journals REVIEW OF SEASONAL CLIMATE FORECASTING FOR AGRICULTURE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

2011 ◽  
Vol 47 (2) ◽  
pp. 205-240 ◽  
Author(s):  
JAMES W. HANSEN ◽  
SIMON J. MASON ◽  
LIQIANG SUN ◽  
ARAME TALL
Keyword(s):  
Smallholder Farmers ◽  
Seasonal Forecast ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Seasonal Forecasting ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Climate Services ◽  
Seasonal Climate ◽  
Climate Forecasting ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasts ◽  
Sub Saharan

SUMMARYWe review the use and value of seasonal climate forecasting for agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), with a view to understanding and exploiting opportunities to realize more of its potential benefits. Interaction between the atmosphere and underlying oceans provides the basis for probabilistic forecasts of climate conditions at a seasonal lead-time, including during cropping seasons in parts of SSA. Regional climate outlook forums (RCOF) and national meteorological services (NMS) have been at the forefront of efforts to provide forecast information for agriculture. A survey showed that African NMS often go well beyond the RCOF process to improve seasonal forecast information and disseminate it to the agricultural sector. Evidence from a combination of understanding of how climatic uncertainty impacts agriculture, model-based ex-ante analyses, subjective expressions of demand or value, and the few well-documented evaluations of actual use and resulting benefit suggests that seasonal forecasts may have considerable potential to improve agricultural management and rural livelihoods. However, constraints related to legitimacy, salience, access, understanding, capacity to respond and data scarcity have so far limited the widespread use and benefit from seasonal prediction among smallholder farmers. Those constraints that reflect inadequate information products, policies or institutional process can potentially be overcome. Additional opportunities to benefit rural communities come from expanding the use of seasonal forecast information for coordinating input and credit supply, food crisis management, trade and agricultural insurance. The surge of activity surrounding seasonal forecasting in SSA following the 1997/98 El Niño has waned in recent years, but emerging initiatives, such as the Global Framework for Climate Services and ClimDev-Africa, are poised to reinvigorate support for seasonal forecast information services for agriculture. We conclude with a discussion of institutional and policy changes that we believe will greatly enhance the benefits of seasonal forecasting to agriculture in SSA.

scholarly journals Could Farmers have Dodged the 2012 Great Plains Drought?

Eos ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 96 ◽  
Author(s):  
Colin Schultz
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Seasonal Climate ◽  
Climate Forecasts ◽  
Decision Making Model ◽  
Seasonal Climate Forecasts

A decision-making model to turn seasonal climate forecasts into information farmers actually need.

scholarly journals How Do Farmers Think about Climate Risk? A Study of On-Farm Decision Making in an Era of Climate Change

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rachel Schattman
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Climate Risk ◽  
Weather Patterns ◽  
Climate Forecasts ◽  
Challenges And Opportunities ◽  
On Farm

climate forecasts suggest farmers in the northeast will be faced with both challenges and opportunities as the climate changes. currently farmers and other land stewards manage the risks created by changing weather patterns in many different ways.

scholarly journals Assessing Decision Timing and Seasonal Climate Forecast Needs of Winter Wheat Producers in the South-Central United States

2018 ◽  
Vol 57 (9) ◽  
pp. 2129-2140 ◽  
Author(s):  
Toni Klemm ◽  
Renee A. McPherson
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Winter Wheat ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
The United States ◽  
Seasonal Climate ◽  
Decision Tools ◽  
South Central ◽  
Climate Forecasts ◽  
Seasonal Climate Forecasts

AbstractAgricultural decision-making that adapts to climate variability is essential to global food security. Crop production can be severely impacted by drought, flood, and heat, as seen in recent years in parts of the United States. Seasonal climate forecasts can help producers reduce crop losses, but many nationwide, publicly available seasonal forecasts currently lack relevance for agricultural producers, in part because they do not reflect their decision needs. This study examines the seasonal forecast needs of winter wheat producers in the southern Great Plains to understand what climate information is most useful and what lead times are most relevant for decision-making. An online survey of 119 agricultural advisers, cooperative extension agents in Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, and Colorado, was conducted and gave insights into producers’ preferences for forecast elements, what weather and climate extremes have the most impact on decision-making, and the decision timing of major farm practices. The survey participants indicated that winter wheat growers were interested not only in directly modeled variables, such as total monthly rainfall, but also in derived elements, such as consecutive number of dry days. Moreover, these agricultural advisers perceived that winter wheat producers needed seasonal climate forecasts to have a lead time of 0–2.5 months—the planning lead time for major farm practices, like planting or harvesting. A forecast calendar and monthly rankings for forecast elements were created that can guide forecasters and advisers as they develop decision tools for winter wheat producers and that can serve as a template for other time-sensitive decision tools developed for stakeholder communities.

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