scholarly journals The Transmission Dynamic of the COVID 19 Outbreak: A Predictive Dashboard

2021 ◽  
Vol 50 (11) ◽  
pp. 3439-3453
Author(s):  
Muhammad Fahmi Bin Ahmad Zuber ◽  
Norhayati Rosli ◽  
Noryanti Muhammad
Keyword(s):  
Standard Operating Procedure ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
World Health ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Health Economy ◽  
Economic Point ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Infected Case ◽  
The World

COVID 19 outbreak gives a great impact worldwide. The disaster of this pandemic has resulted in a large number of human lives being lost. As all countries implemented quarantine and social distancing, the great lockdown all over the world lead to multiple crises including health, economy, financial, and collapse in industrial and educational activities. Movement Control Order (MCO) and social distancing which have been implemented as control measures in Malaysia also affected many sectors. The landscape now has successfully reduced the number of infected people. However, from the economic point of view, the Retail Group Malaysia (RGM) has projected the country’s retail industry suffers a negative growth rate for the first time in 22 years. If the epidemic continues, society will reach an impasse, a time when the lockdown will become more than some of them can tolerate. As recognized by the World Health Organization (WHO), modelling the outbreak based on the prior input data is more appropriate than the ‘risk of bias’ for decision-makers. Thus, this research is conducted to model the outbreak of the disease using the susceptible-infected-recovery-death (SIRD) compartmental model accompanying with the varying infection rate due to changes in MCO measures. The model assumes under the unavailability of the vaccine, recovered people can be reinfected. The epidemic parameters and reproduction numbers are estimated and fitted from the transmission model to the actual data using the Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) of Metropolis-Hasting. The model is solved using a numerical algorithm of the Runge-Kutta method. The predictive dashboard of a graphical user interface (GUI) is developed, hence monitoring and predicting the outbreak under the control measures of the two different types of MCO scenarios (which are called constant and alternate scenarios) can be performed. GUI for the dynamic transmission of the COVID 19 provides insight for the future outbreak, hence may help the respective stakeholders to propose the best policy of a new norm for all sectors. From the GUI, we can see that, when no or loose MCO is implemented or compliance of the public to the COVID 19 standard operating procedure (SOP), the infected case will increase rapidly up to 7.5 million. With strict MCO regulation or public obedient to the SOP, the infected case will decrease rapidly, but even after a long period of strict regulation, once the quarantine is stopped, the infected case will rise again. An alternative MCO scenario is suggested where a cyclic pattern of strict and loose MCO regulation is upheld, and it shows to flatten the curve while allow periods of less restricted lifestyle. This can be one of the alternatives to balance the life and livelihood.

scholarly journals COVID-19 outbreak and control in Kenya- Insights from a mathematical model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rachel Waema Mbogo ◽  
Titus Okello Orwa
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Capital City ◽  
World Health ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Global Public Health ◽  
The World ◽  
Rate Of Recovery ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
And Control

Abstract The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic reached Kenya in March 2020 with the initial cases reported in the capital city Nairobi and in the coastal area Mombasa. As reported by the World Health Organization, the outbreak of COVID-19 has spread across the world, killed many, collapsed economies and changed the way people live since it was first reported in Wuhan, China, in the end of 2019. As of May 25,2020 It had led to over 100,000 confirmed cases in Africa with over 3000 deaths. The trend poses a huge threat to global public health. Understanding the early transmission dynamics of the infection and evaluating the effectiveness of control measures is crucial for assessing the potential for sustained transmission to occur in new areas.We employed a SEIHCRD mathematical transmission model with reported Kenyan data on cases of COVID-19 to estimate how transmission varies over time. The model is concise in structure, and successfully captures the course of the COVID-19 outbreak, and thus sheds light on understanding the trends of the outbreak. The next generation matrix approach was adopted to calculate the basic reproduction number (R0) from the model to assess the factors driving the infection . The results from the model analysis shows that non-pharmaceutical interventions over a relatively long period is needed to effectively get rid of the COVID-19 epidemic otherwise the rate of infection will continue to increase despite the increased rate of recovery.

scholarly journals COVID-19 outbreak and control in Kenya- Insights from a mathematical model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rachel Waema Mbogo ◽  
Titus Okello Orwa
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Capital City ◽  
World Health ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Global Public Health ◽  
The World ◽  
Rate Of Recovery ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
And Control

Abstract The coronavirus disease 2019 ( COVID -19) pandemic reached Kenya in March 2020 with the initial cases reported in the capital city Nairobi and in the coastal area Mombasa. As reported by the World Health Organization, the outbreak of COVID -19 has spread across the world, killed many, collapsed economies and changed the way people live since it was first reported in Wuhan, China, in the end of 2019. As of May 25,2020 It had led to over 100,000 confirmed cases in Africa with over 3000 deaths. The trend poses a huge threat to global public health. Understanding the early transmission dynamics of the infection and evaluating the effectiveness of control measures is crucial for assessing the potential for sustained transmission to occur in new areas. We employed a SEIHCRD mathematical transmission model with reported Kenyan data on cases of COVID -19 to estimate how transmission varies over time. The model is concise in structure, and successfully captures the course of the COVID -19 outbreak, and thus sheds light on understanding the trends of the outbreak. The next generation matrix approach was adopted to calculate the basic reproduction number ( $R_0$ ) from the model to assess the factors driving the infection . The results from the model analysis shows that non-pharmaceutical interventions over a relatively long period is needed to effectively get rid of the COVID -19 epidemic otherwise the rate of infection will continue to increase despite the increased rate of recovery.

scholarly journals The challenges of distance learning in countries undergoing transition during the COVID-19 pandemic - case study

2021 ◽  
Vol 24 ◽  
pp. 196-207
Author(s):  
Naser Rugova ◽  
Elmire Nikci – Rexha ◽  
Elmi Berisha ◽  
Fallanza Beka Bajrami
Keyword(s):  
Higher Education ◽  
Online Learning ◽  
Distance Learning ◽  
Learning Process ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
World Health ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
First Case ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact

Virtual learning, also known as online learning or distance learning has transformed the face of the education system for quite some time. Now, it is rapidly becoming an integral aspect and a common tool, in the broader aspect of higher education, as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition to providing an alternative method of learning in the digital age, online learning offers students the opportunity to learn new skills or improve existing ones.  On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a global pandemic. Following the speed with which COVID-19 spread to all parts of the world and to curb the spread of the disease, most governments around the world, including the Republic of Kosovo, authorized unprecedented social control measures to stop this disease unknown. These measures, among others, required social distancing and temporary physical closure of educational institutions. The first case of COVID 19 in Kosovo was identified on March 13, 2020, social distancing - full closure came into force on March 15, while UBT Higher Education Institution started online learning on March 16, 2020, the first in Kosovo and possibly in the Western Balkans. This teaching-learning process was a novelty for Kosovo and was applied for the first time. Objective: The main objective of the current survey was to study the impact of E-learning on students' academic performance and their evaluations of this form of teaching in general. The purpose of this paper is to reflect as professionally as possible the organization of distance learning, the effects on the teaching and learning process as well as the form and level of communication and teacher-student relations in this process which was a novelty for Kosovo and UBT as one of the largest Private Colleges in the region.

scholarly journals How COVID-19 is Changing Behaviors of Population: A Study from Punjab?

BioMedica ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 36 (2S) ◽  
pp. 253-259
Author(s):  
Ahmad Sadiq ◽  
Muhammad Salman Saleem ◽  
Muna Malik ◽  
Muhammad Irfan Malik ◽  
Fahd Kamal Akhtar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hand Hygiene ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
World Health ◽  
Online Data ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Attitudes And Practices ◽  
The World ◽  
Knowledge Attitudes And Practices

<p><strong>Background and Objectives:</strong> Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a respiratory disease caused by a novel Coronavirus. The World Health Organization (WHO) officially declared it a health emergency on January 30, 2020. WHO also called for collaborative efforts from all countries to prevent its further spread. The success of the world&rsquo;s battle against COVID-19 depends upon people&rsquo;s adherence to the control measures which is affected by their Knowledge, Attitudes and Practices (KAP) towards the disease as suggested by KAP theory. In this study, the KAP of population from Punjab towards COVID-19 during the rapid rise period of the COVID-19 outbreak is investigated. <strong>Methods:</strong> This was a cross-sectional study based on Google forms-based survey regarding the Knowledge, Attitudes and Practices of participants towards COVID-19. A total of n = 500 participants completing their questionnaires were included. Online data was extracted and cross-checked for any discrepancy. Statistical analysis was done by using SPSS ver.22. <strong>Results:</strong> Participants with &ge; 22 years of age significantly practicing more social distancing (P&lt;0.05). Knowledge of hand hygiene and proper discarding of mask were significantly more associated with the practices of social distancing. Knowledge of cough and sneezing etiquettes was significantly related to practice social distancing (P &lt; 0.01). Attitude of hand hygiene protocols was significantly related to practicing hand washing, minimizing touching environment (P &lt; 0.01) and disinfecting house and workplace (P &lt; 0.05). <strong>Conclusion</strong>: The present study showed a good knowledge, positive attitudes and suitable practices in population of Punjab. The health awareness programs designed after pandemic declaration by WHO, played a vital role in improving all these things.</p>

scholarly journals COVID-19 outbreak, social distancing and mass testing in Kenya - Insights from a mathematical model 

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rachel Waema Mbogo ◽  
John W. Odhiambo
Keyword(s):  
Informal Settlement ◽  
Target Population ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
World Health ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Global Public Health ◽  
The World ◽  
The Government ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization

Abstract As reported by the World Health Organization (WHO), the world is currently facing a devastating pandemic of a novel coronavirus ( COVID -19), which started as an outbreak of pneumonia of unknown cause in the Wuhan city of China in December 2019. Within days and weeks, the COVID -19 pandemic had spread to over 210 countries. By the end of April, COVID -19 had caused over three million confirmed cases of infections and 230,000 fatalities globally. The trend poses a huge threat to global public health. Understanding the early transmission dynamics of the infection and evaluating the effectiveness of control measures is crucial for assessing the potential for sustained transmission to occur in new areas.We employed a SEIHCRD delay differential mathematical transmission model with reported Kenyan data on cases of COVID -19 to estimate how transmission varies over time and which population to target for mass testing. The model is concise in structure, and successfully captures the course of the COVID -19 outbreak, and thus sheds light on understanding the trends of the outbreak and the vulnerable populations. The results from the model gives insights to the government on the population to target for mass testing. The government should target population in the informal settlement for mass testing. People with pre-existing medical and non-medical conditions should be identified and given special medical care. With aggressive effective mass testing and adhering to the government directives and guidelines, we can get rid of COVID -19 epidemic.

scholarly journals CÓMO DETECTAR SARS-CoV-2 EMPLEANDO PRUEBAS DE LABORATORIO

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (9) ◽  
pp. 87-104
Author(s):  
JAZMIN DE LA LUZ ARMENDARIZ ◽  
LUIS GÓMEZ NÚÑEZ ◽  
Catalina Tufiño Loza ◽  
Manuel Zapata Moreno ◽  
María Concepción Chávez Flores ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Clinical Signs ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
World Health ◽  
Serum Samples ◽  
Serological Tests ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Degree Of Protection ◽  
The World ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Impact

The SARS-CoV-2 virus is an emerging coronavirus identified in 2019 and is responsible for the disease called COVID-19, which was declared a global pandemic, in 2020 by the World Health Organization (WHO). At the beginning of May 2020, more than 4 million infected people have been confirmed in the world and more than 278 thousand deaths, estimating an economic impact of more than 3 billion dollars. In Mexico, a total of 36,327 positive cases have been confirmed. The impact of this disease is mainly associated with the rapid spread among the human population and the severity of the clinical signs, which, if not treated, can lead to death. Currently, there is no vaccine available to prevent the disease and its control is based on the clinical diagnosis, which must be carried out by a specialist. This diagnosis must be confirmed by laboratory tests, which are of two types, mainly: for the detection of the etiological agent (virological and molecular) and serological (detection of antibodies), both tests must be carried out by institutions approved by the InDRE. The objective of molecular diagnosis (which is the most widely used worldwide) is to identify a fragment of the viral genome, which would indicate that the individual has had exposure and has been infected with SARS-CoV-2. In the case of serological tests, the diagnosis is based on identifying the presence of specific antibodies in serum samples from patients in the convalescent phase, with this test the degree of protection in a population can be evaluated. Both types of tests can be performed in patients with or without symptoms and are of utmost importance for the establishment of prevention and control measures for this pandemic.

Exponential growth impact of COVID-19 pandemic-world scenario, preventive measures and drug preferences (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aneesh Kumar K V
Keyword(s):  
Exponential Growth ◽  
World Health ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Infected People ◽  
The Public ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization

BACKGROUND The World Health Organization (WHO) declared 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) on 30 January 2020 and pandemic on 11 March 2020. As of today, 17 May 2020 around 3,16,520 death and 47,99,266 coronavirus infected cases are reported worldwide. There is about 26,25,463 active cases are now under treatment and several lakhs of people are under quarantine. Therefore, an attempt has been made to explain briefly about the characteristics of the virus, current review, COVID-19 symptoms, precautions, available vaccines etc. In addition, a case study was also conducted to provide the dangerous picture of drastic growth of infected people around the world during the span of time. OBJECTIVE World Health Organization (WHO) has announced the COVID-19 outbreak as a global public health emergency and pandemic, spreading fast with an increasing number of infected patients worldwide. At present, no vaccines are available for the treatment of patients with COVID_19 disease. A case study was conducted to provide the dangerous picture of exponential growth of infected people around the world to inculcate the awareness of maintaining social distancing and hand hygiene. This effort is made in view of providing awareness to the public effectively to understand and deal with the novel coronavirus situation worldwide. It is also anticipated to provide a reference to future advances in medical anti-virus related studies. METHODS A case study was conducted to provide the dangerous picture of exponential growth of infected people around the globe. For our study, we preferred five most coronavirus effected countries in the world viz., China, Itali, USA, Spain, India in the month of February and March 2020, and later extended to 17 May 2020. Based on the current published evidence, we precisely summarize the disease, characteristics of the virus, current world scenario, available treatment options and preventive measures to be taken against COVID-19. RESULTS Effort is made in view of providing awareness to the public effectively to understand and deal with the novel coronavirus situation worldwide.The medicines like Remdesivir, Chloroquine and Hydroxychloroquine, Ritonavir/Lopinavir and combined with Interferon beta are the experimental treatments currently being researched. Treatment with Lopinavir and Ritonavir or Chloroquine should be recommended in older patients with serious symptoms. The main risk factor of COVID-19 is travel and exposure to the virus. Lockdown, quarantine and thereby maintaining the ‘social distancing’ are the suitable method for controlling the out spread of coronavirus. Moreover, it is individual’s responsibility to take prompt measures to control the fast spreading of this virus disease. CONCLUSIONS The COVID-19 disease is spreading fast uncontrolled with an increasing number of infected patients worldwide. Our case study details the dangerous picture of exponential growth of infected people around the globe. The exact source, characteristics of the virus is unknown and no suitable drugs have been developed as of today. Symptomatic treatments are available and the list is provided, no need to panic. Conclusion is to inculcate the awareness of maintaining social distancing and hand hygiene. Anticipated to provide a reference to future advances in medical antivirus related studies.

scholarly journals COVID-19 outbreak, social distancing and mass testing in Kenya - Insights from a mathematical model 

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rachel Waema Mbogo ◽  
John W. Oddhiambo
Keyword(s):  
Informal Settlement ◽  
Target Population ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
World Health ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Global Public Health ◽  
The World ◽  
The Government ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization

Abstract As reported by the World Health Organization (WHO), the world is currently facing a devastating pandemic of a novel coronavirus ( COVID -19), which started as an outbreak of pneumonia of unknown cause in the Wuhan city of China in December 2019. Within days and weeks, the COVID -19 pandemic had spread to over 210 countries. By the end of April, COVID -19 had caused over three million confirmed cases of infections and 230,000 fatalities globally. The trend poses a huge threat to global public health. Understanding the early transmission dynamics of the infection and evaluating the effectiveness of control measures is crucial for assessing the potential for sustained transmission to occur in new areas.We employed a SEIHCRD delay differential mathematical transmission model with reported Kenyan data on cases of COVID -19 to estimate how transmission varies over time and which population to target for mass testing. The model is concise in structure, and successfully captures the course of the COVID -19 outbreak, and thus sheds light on understanding the trends of the outbreak and the vulnerable populations. The results from the model gives insights to the government on the population to target for mass testing. The government should target population in the informal settlement for mass testing. People with pre-existing medical and non-medical conditions should be identified and given special medical care. With aggressive effective mass testing and adhering to the government directives and guidelines, we can get rid of COVID -19 epidemic.

Characterizing the effectiveness of COVID-19 mitigation measures: A data-centric approach (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lukman Olagoke ◽  
Ahmet E. Topcu
Keyword(s):  
Control Measure ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
World Health ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
The World ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Impact

BACKGROUND COVID-19 represents a serious threat to both national health and economic systems. To curb this pandemic, the World Health Organization (WHO) issued a series of COVID-19 public safety guidelines. Different countries around the world initiated different measures in line with the WHO guidelines to mitigate and investigate the spread of COVID-19 in their territories. OBJECTIVE The aim of this paper is to quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of these control measures using a data-centric approach. METHODS We begin with a simple text analysis of coronavirus-related articles and show that reports on similar outbreaks in the past strongly proposed similar control measures. This reaffirms the fact that these control measures are in order. Subsequently, we propose a simple performance statistic that quantifies general performance and performance under the different measures that were initiated. A density based clustering of based on performance statistic was carried out to group countries based on performance. RESULTS The performance statistic helps evaluate quantitatively the impact of COVID-19 control measures. Countries tend show variability in performance under different control measures. The performance statistic has negative correlation with cases of death which is a useful characteristics for COVID-19 control measure performance analysis. A web-based time-line visualization that enables comparison of performances and cases across continents and subregions is presented. CONCLUSIONS The performance metric is relevant for the analysis of the impact of COVID-19 control measures. This can help caregivers and policymakers identify effective control measures and reduce cases of death due to COVID-19. The interactive web visualizer provides easily digested and quick feedback to augment decision-making processes in the COVID-19 response measures evaluation. CLINICALTRIAL Not Applicable

scholarly journals HCV Detection, Discrimination, and Genotyping Technologies

Sensors ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (10) ◽  
pp. 3423 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shrikant Warkad ◽  
Satish Nimse ◽  
Keum-Soo Song ◽  
Taisun Kim
Keyword(s):  
Hepatitis C ◽  
Hcv Infection ◽  
World Health ◽  
Clinical Samples ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Highly Sensitive ◽  
The World ◽  
Health Organization

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), 71 million people were living with Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection worldwide in 2015. Each year, about 399,000 HCV-infected people succumb to cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and liver failure. Therefore, screening of HCV infection with simple, rapid, but highly sensitive and specific methods can help to curb the global burden on HCV healthcare. Apart from the determination of viral load/viral clearance, the identification of specific HCV genotype is also critical for successful treatment of hepatitis C. This critical review focuses on the technologies used for the detection, discrimination, and genotyping of HCV in clinical samples. This article also focuses on advantages and disadvantages of the reported methods used for HCV detection, quantification, and genotyping.

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