scholarly journals Investigating the causal relationship between economic growth, inflation, and unemployment in South Korea

Ekonomia ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 43-61
Author(s):  
Mahmut Zeki Akarsu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Strong Correlation ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Characteristic Structure ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Economic Characteristic ◽  
Monetary And Fiscal Policy ◽  
Main Factor

Policymakers and economists consistently implement monetary and fiscal policy to control economic growth, inflation, and unemployment due to the fact that these three factors directly influence people’s living standards. Every country has a different economic characteristic structure. Economic growth and inflation have a strong correlation in some countries, while other countries have a strong correlation between economic growth and unemployment. Therefore, investigating the causal relationship among economic factors can provide us with a better understanding of how economic phenomena affect each other. In South Korea, economic growth, inflation, unemployment have been in balance since the 1998 Korean economic crisis. Hence, investigating the economic growth, inflation, and unemployment of South Korea will enlighten how these three economic indicators affect each other in a country that developed rapidly and had several economic crises. To investigate such a model, the Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) is used with the data between the years 1980 and 2019 in order to verify whether Okun’s law or/and the Philips curve hold in South Korea. The research also determines if there is either a bi-directional or uni-directional relationship if economic growth, inflation, and unemployment have a causal relationship. The research demonstrates that GDP is the main factor in South Korea that influences the other economic factors. This research paper can contribute to academia, since it has a vital outcome which shows that the mobility of the unemployment rate in South Korea is directly correlated to the movement of GDP.

Has the Internet increased FDI, economic growth, and trade? Evidence from Asian economies

2021 ◽  
pp. 026666692199974
Author(s):  
Zi Hui Yin ◽  
Chang Hwan Choi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
East Asia ◽  
South Asia ◽  
Internet Use ◽  
The Internet ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Western Asia ◽  
Asian Economies ◽  
Transaction Efficiency

This study examines the causal relationship between the Internet and economic factors in Asian economies between 1997 and 2017. The economic factors consist of gross domestic product (GDP), foreign direct investment (FDI), imports, and exports. A comparative analysis of East, South, and Western Asia was conducted using a panel vector autoregressive model. The findings show bidirectional causality between FDI and Internet use in South Asia, unidirectional causality from Internet use to FDI in East Asia, and unidirectional causality from FDI to Internet use in Western Asia. Moreover, the findings indicate unidirectional causality from exports to Internet use in East Asia and unidirectional causality from Internet use to exports in South Asia, but no impact in Western Asia. Finally, the results show unidirectional causality from Internet use to GDP in Western Asia. As these results suggest that Internet use has boosted economic performance in Asia, policy makers in the region should improve Internet use with a focus on economic growth, improving transaction efficiency, and facilitating foreign investment.

Government expenditure and economic growth nexus in ECOWAS countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 36 (3) ◽  
pp. 204-225 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olumide Olusegun Olaoye ◽  
Monica Orisadare ◽  
Ukafor Ukafor Okorie
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Method Of Moments ◽  
Panel Data Analysis ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
West African ◽  
Economic Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vector Autoregressive

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the direction of causality between government expenditure and economic growth in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) countries. Design/methodology/approach The study adopts the recently developed panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) by Love and Abrrigo (2015) and two-step system generalized method of moments (GMM) in order to resolve the inherent problems of endogeneity and persistence in economic data. Findings The results from the study show no evidence of either unidirectional or bidirectional causal relationship between government expenditure and economic growth in ECOWAS member countries. Originality/value Unlike previous studies that adopted cointegration technique, we adopt a system GMM through the application of a dynamic PVAR framework within the framework of panel data analysis in order to address the possibility of feedback effect in the causal relationship between government expenditure and economic growth. In addition the PVAR also allows us to model shocks across countries.

Government spending and economic growth: a trivariate causality testing

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Olumide Olaoye ◽  
Olatunji Afolabi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Institutional Environment ◽  
Method Of Moment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Public Resources ◽  
Causality Testing ◽  
High Level

PurposeThis paper investigates whether institutional environment influences the relationship government spending and economic growth in ECOWAS over the period 2008–2017.Design/methodology/approachThe study adopts the recently developed panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) by Abrigo and Love (2015) and a two-step system generalised method of moment (GMM).FindingsThe results from the study show no evidence of either unidirectional or bidirectional causal relationship between government spending and economic growth in ECOWAS. Our findings reveal that government spending when associated with high level of corruption, oversized government and a waste of public resources will not cause economic growth.Originality/valueUnlike previous studies, we resolve the inherent problems of endogeneity and persistence in economic data. Likewise, we depart from existing studies that examined the causal relationship in a bivariate framework and adopt a trivariate causality testing.

scholarly journals KAUSALITAS KONTRIBUSI INDUSTRI PARIWISATA DAN JUMLAH KUNJUNGAN WISATAWAN TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 330
Author(s):  
COKORDA BAGUS YUDISTIRA ◽  
I WAYAN SUMARJAYA ◽  
LUH PUTU IDA HARINI
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Foreign Tourist ◽  
The World

Bali is known as one of the most popular tourism destination in the world. The number of tourist visit to Bali increases every year. In 2010, there roughly 7 millions tourist visits to Bali and reach up to 14 million people by the end of 2017. This increased in number may affect the growth of tourism industries and economic growth in Bali Province. This study aims to analyze the patterns of causal relationship between tourism industry receipts, tourist visits, and economic growth in Bali based on time series data using vector autoregressive (VAR) model. The results conclude the following: (i) foreign tourist visits is significantly affect economic growth. In addition, economic growth, domestic tourist visits, and foreign tourist visits are significantly impact to tourism industry receipts, (ii) economic growth would affect the tourism industry receipts in the next four consecutive months, (iii) the forecasting result of economic growth with VAR model is highly accurated with MAPE 2%.

The Causal Relationship between Tourist Arrivals and Economic Growth: Evidence from Indonesia

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 721 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhamad Rifki FADILAH ◽  
Haryo KUNCORO ◽  
K. Dianta A. SEBAYANG
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Main Motivation ◽  
Foreign Tourist

The main motivation behind this research because nowadays tourism becomes one of the major industries in Indonesia. However, literature on the causal relationship between the cyclical components of tourist arrivals and economic growth revealed inconclusive especially in the developing countries as Indonesia. This paper aims at investigating whether foreign tourist arrivals contribute to economic growth evidence from Indonesia over the period 2004 (1) – 2016 (12). Then, this research was applied the vector autoregressive (VAR) model. Afterwards, we exploited Hodrick-Prescott de-trending procedure to obtain cyclical components of tourist arrivals and economic growth. By using the test of Granger-causality, we found that causality running from tourist arrivals to economic growth. Furthermore, the VAR model shows that tourist arrivals were pro-cyclical to economic growth, implied that the increase of tourist arrivals promote the economic growth so that foreign tourist arrivals could be the key to escalate Indonesia’s economic growth in short term.

National Currency Appreciation and Growth of the Russian Economy

2004 ◽  
pp. 95-111
Author(s):  
T. Zolotoukhina
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Capital Flows ◽  
National Currency ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators

The problem of interaction between Russian currency appreciation and positive dynamics of macroeconomic indicators is studied. Main economic factors of ruble appreciation are analyzed. Consequences of the Russian Central Bank's policy directed to oppose ruble appreciation and problems in financial area due to the increase of money supply through the exchange market are considered. Influence of exchange rate appreciation on economic growth, inflation, export, import, capital flows are discussed. It is concluded that Russian ruble appreciation stimulates an increase in efficiency of the Russian economy.

Investment Processes in the Russian Economy

2004 ◽  
pp. 4-27 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Lisin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Capital Flows ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators

The problem of interaction between Russian currency appreciation and positive dynamics of macroeconomic indicators is studied. Main economic factors of ruble appreciation are analyzed. Consequences of the Russian Central Bank's policy directed to oppose ruble appreciation and problems in financial area due to the increase of money supply through the exchange market are considered. Influence of exchange rate appreciation on economic growth, inflation, export, import, capital flows are discussed. It is concluded that Russian ruble appreciation stimulates an increase in efficiency of the Russian economy.

Analysis of tax-spend nexus for Russian regional budgets

2020 ◽  
pp. 5-29
Author(s):  
Evsey T. Gurvich ◽  
Natalia A. Krasnopeeva
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
National Economy ◽  
Federal Budget ◽  
Fiscal Rules ◽  
Fiscal Discipline ◽  
Federal Level ◽  
Regional Budgets ◽  
Econometric Technique

We study the tax-spend nexus for Russian regional budgets. Causal relationship running from taxing to spending is found, thus supporting the concept “tax and spend” suggested by M. Friedman. Next, elasticity of expenditure by revenue is estimated for a panel of 80 regional budgets basing on data for 2000—2017. Estimates are in the range of 0.72 to 0.78 (depending on the econometric technique), which exceeds elasticity for the federal budget more than twice. This evidences that fiscal policy at the sub-federal (as distinct from the federal) level has clear pro-cyclical nature. Besides, the largest sensitivity of expenditure to revenue shocks is found for the item “national economy”, implying marked adverse implications for economic growth. We suggest to mitigate this effect by modifying fiscal rules for sub-federal budgets. They are currently aimed primarily at enhancing fiscal discipline, with less emphasis on countercyclical policy, insulating economy from fiscal shocks.

Theorizing About Post-Keynesian Economics in Australasa

2013 ◽  
pp. 411-435
Author(s):  
Paul Dalziel ◽  
J. W. Nevile
Keyword(s):  
Higher Education ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
World War Ii ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
World War ◽  
Keynesian Economics ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
Monetary And Fiscal Policy

There was much in common in the development of post-Keynesian economics in Australia and New Zealand, but there were also many differences. Both countries shared a common heritage in higher education. In the first twenty-five years after World War II, both countries adopted broadly Keynesian policies and experienced very low levels of unemployment. Increasingly over these years more theorizing about macroeconomic policy had what now would be called a post-Keynesian content, but this label was not used till after the event. In both countries, apart from one important factor, the experience of actual monetary policy and theorizing about it were similar. Keynesian ideas were more rapidly adopted in Australia than in many other countries. Not surprisingly for a couple of decades after 1936, analysis of policy and its application was Keynesian rather than post-Keynesian, with fiscal policy playing the major role. The conduct of both monetary and fiscal policy depends on the theory of inflation. This chapter examines post-Keynesian economics in Australasia, focusing on aggregate demand, economic growth, and income distribution policy.

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