scholarly journals The Movement Of Funds on the Residents' Accounts in Russia

Author(s):  
S. M. Borodachev

The work proposes a model of funds formation in current and fixed-term (ruble and currency) accounts and transfers of funds between them. The sources of money are loans issued by commercial banks, placement of government domestic debt, the positive balance of foreign trade. The financial parameters and characteristics of the system are estimated using the Kalman filter. The adequacy of the model is confirmed by simulation modeling. It was found that the rate of creation of rubles in current accounts increased from ≈ 8% per annum in 2015-16 ≈ to 12% in 2017-18 and to 29% in 2019-20. The leakage of foreign currency from accounts (in addition to the official outflow of capital) was ≈ 12, 50, 35 billion dollars per annum during the same periods.

Motivated by the large number of banking studies in Indonesia that have not included NOP (Net Open Position) in profitability modeling, our research aims to realize this. As for the reason for the importance of the Net Open Position (NOP) variable, it is almost certain that all banks will use foreign currency items in their asset and liability management activities. All commercial banks in the BUKU level 1, 2, 3 and 4 will definitely be involved in demand deposits as a consequence of continuing financial market activities to safeguard the economic activities of a country. By referring to previous research models from Al-Omar, et.al. (2008), Albulescu (2015), Muhmad & Hashim (2015), Menicucci & Paolucci (2016) and Saputri & Oetomo (2016) then identified four determinants of bank profitability variables, namely CAR, NPL, NOP and LDR. These four variables will then be defined conceptually and formulas referring to banking theory applicable in Indonesia, namely CAMEL (Capital, Management, Asset, Earning and Liquidity). Each variable will function as a bank specific factor that will determine the profitability of the bank both grossly as measured by ROA and net measured by ROE. Results of the test with panel data regression show that the NOP variable is always a determining factor in the ROA and the ROE models. This also provides evidence that NOP is indeed very important in determining ROA and ROE for bankers. With the proven NOP as the main determinant, the argument is supported that commercial banks must pay attention to the foreign exchange items in their asset and liability management. In addition to NOP, NPL is also important for determining ROA and ROE of banks.


Author(s):  
Wiesław Dzwonkowski

Analysis of potatoes and potato products foreign trade was conducted in changing market and trading conditioning before and after the Polish accession to the EU and in last years, when adaptation processes in the Polish potato sector practically were already finished. In spite of the biggest decrease in last years, Poland still remains one of the bigger producers of potatoes in Europe and in the world. The export of potatoes to the direct consumption is low, however the sale to of potato products to foreign markets systematically grows, mainly of fries and chips, what is possible thanks systematically increasing their domestic production. After the Polish accession to the EU and for abolishing tariff barriers an import of potatoes and potato products considerably increased. Poland has a positive balance in potato products foreign trade, however from the accession to the EU remains the net importer of potatoes.


Author(s):  
Dorota Pasińska

The main purpose of the paper was to present changes in Polish foreign trade in guinea fowls products in 2012-2016. The horizontal analysis (indexes with a fixed and chain basis) and vertical analysis were applied. It was found that the production and consumption of guinea fowls meat were small, and the exports of guinea fowls products were decreasing. In the years 2013-2014 imports increased and in 2015-2016 imports were falling. The positive balance of total guinea fowls products occurred only in 2012 and was negative - in the years 2013-2016, which may indicate that Poland is not self-sufficient in the production of guinea fowls meat.


Author(s):  
V. Dergachova ◽  
M. Kravchenko ◽  
O. Vynogradova ◽  
V. Holiuk ◽  
K. Kuznietsova

The paper is devoted to the study of theoretical and practical aspects of determinant management of competitive devaluation, which are the essence of competitive devaluation, instruments of its implementation, as well as the positive and negative consequences of its impact on the economy of the country, which is implementing it and its trading partners. The authors have found that competitive devaluation is a deliberate devaluation of currency initiated (both officially and informally) by the central bank to reduce the value of exported goods, thereby facilitating domestic production, solving the unemployment problem, and reducing the balance of payments deficit. The article determines that the most significant impact of competitive devaluation takes place in the following sectors of the country’s economy: foreign trade, industrial, agricultural, financial and services. The study has found that the degree of effectiveness of competitive devaluation to stimulate economic growth of a country is determined by the following factors: structure of foreign trade, share of imported raw materials and components in the cost of goods, foreign trade barriers, growth rates of other countries’ economies, elasticity of demand for exported goods, use of fixed commodity contracts and risk hedging instruments, J-curve effect. The authors highlight the positive and negative consequences of competitive devaluation for the country implementing it and its trading partners. Expected positive results for the country which is devaluing its currency is an increase in exports and an increase in domestic demand, which should contribute to higher employment and economic growth. Among the negative effects of competitive devaluation are the following: a decrease of the purchasing power of the population, a rise of prices of imports and a decrease of their volumes, an increase of the inflation rate; more expensive repayment of foreign currency denominated debt; reduction of foreign investments; restriction of scientific and technological development and the outflow of professional labor.


Author(s):  
S.M. Borodachev

The paper gives an explanation of the dynamics of the money masses in Russia through cross-border flows of rubles and (foreign) currency and the creation of deposits by commercial banks. Volumes of flows and deposits in turn depend on changes in the currency/ruble exchange rate. It was found that the growth/fall of the USD rate by 1 RUB for the month, for the same month decreases/increases: currency outflow abroad by $0.111 billion and creation of ruble deposits and the inflow of rubles from outside by $0.133 billion.


Author(s):  
S.M. Borodachev

The paper explains the dynamics of monetary aggregates in Russia with the help of country's trade balance, the creation of deposits by commercial banks and cross-border flows of rubles and (foreign) currency. The volumes of deposits and flows, in turn, depend on changes the currency/ruble exchange rate and favorable external economic conditions. The model was estimated by the Kalman filter, the adequacy was confirmed by stimulation. Monthly money supply forecasts have an accuracy of ~ 1%. It was found that the volume of additional deposits created per month is ~ 300 billion RUB (this leads to real inflation of 9.5% per annum), money flows that are not related to payments for goods: rubles inflow from abroad ~ 100 billion RUB, currency goes abroad ~ $ 15 billion. With the growth / fall of the dollar exchange rate by 1 RUB per month, during the same month, the creation of additional ruble deposits and the arrival of rubles from outside decreases / increases by $ 0.114 billion. The increase of the Currency Reserve Assets of Russia is accompanied by going abroad ~ 5% of the increase.


Author(s):  
Jamile Anwar Youssef

The chapter aims to determine three research objectives: (1) ATM service quality in Lebanon measurement based on five dimensions, using the SERVQUAL model; (2) analyze and investigate customer satisfaction and loyalty of the ATM usage, during two different periods, before and after the following situations that Lebanon encountered: foreign currency shortage, commercial banks' informal capital control, and bankruptcy; and 3) assess the intention of the Lebanese to adopt Libra virtual currency. To achieve the objectives of the study, a questionnaire was distributed among bank clients in Lebanese. The results and analysis of the study have been done by comparing the means of SERVQUAL dimensions. The findings indicate that the Lebanese perspective of the banking system changed during the two different periods; however, their intention level to adopt a virtual currency is low.


Significance Instead it ordered that all foreign exchange purchases should occur through commercial banks. This move aims to stabilise the value of the naira by reducing effective domestic demand for foreign currency. Impacts The CBN may allow commercial banks to provide forex to retail dealers as an alternative policy. The cost of imported goods and services will increase. A USD3.35bn IMF special drawing rights (SDR) allocation will bolster Nigeria’s short-term reserve position. Full exchange rate unification will not occur under President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration.


Ekonomika ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 99 (1) ◽  
pp. 131-145
Author(s):  
Yuriy Vasylenko

A new causal simulation model of economic development was created, which comprehensively in detail and fully reflects various types of legal and shadow economic activities and their interrelations.The model is used to forecast the whole (legal and shadow) country’s economy up to 2022.The dynamics of shadow and legal indicators are different.The biggest and most important difference is about exports and imports. Official statistics give a negative balance of the Ukrainian foreign trade of Ukraine in 2019-22. However, total export, determined by the model, considerably exceeds imports, so actually we expect a surplus.This is very important for the National Bank: its policy based on the official (legal) negative balance of Ukraine foreign trade should be one (throw foreign currency reserves into the market or to devalue the hryvnia), but with the actual balance that includes shadow flows and is positive, - contrary one (to buy currency on the market or to revalue the national currency).Our model calculates how the production volumes of all types of goods and services should change to ensure that supply and demand are balanced. These numbers can serve a reference for manufacturers.We suggested that the relevant Ukrainian authorities take an active position in the implementation of the developed forecast for the economic development of Ukraine: measuring actual rates of changes in the production of these types of goods during the year, they provide recommendations to producers to increase or decrease their production.


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