Prices versus costs of production for molnupiravir as a COVID-19 treatment
Abstract Background Molnupiravir has been recently approved in the United Kingdom for the treatment of COVID-19 for showing promising survival benefits in clinical trials. This analysis will estimate and compare potential generic minimum costs of molnupiravir as well as observe countries eligible for pricing discounts as agreed by Merck and The Medicines Patent Pool (MPP). Methods Drug prices were searched for molnupiravir using active pharmaceutical ingredients (API) data extracted from global shipping records. This was compared with national pricing data from a range of low, medium, and high-income countries. Annual API export volumes from India were used to estimate the current availability. Trends of molnupiravir drugs prices were also evaluated for the last 6-month period. Mean daily COVID-19 diagnosis rates were calculated for the countries eligible for voluntary licensing. Results Molnupiravir can be generically manufactured at the very low per-course cost of $9.00. Over the past 6 months, prices of molnupiravir have fallen significantly, and when comparing reported international prices, we found wide variations between countries. Only 9% of diagnosed patients worldwide were in the countries eligible for voluntary licensing. Conclusions Prices of molnupiravir range from $20 to $750 per course. Only 9% of worldwide COVID-19 diagnoses are made in countries covered by voluntary licenses. Middle income countries not eligible for voluntary licensing may need to issue compulsory licenses to secure access to molnupiravir at affordable prices.