scholarly journals Application of Multivariate Techniques for Spatial Drought Modelling using Satellite Rainfall Estimate in Fiji

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anshuka Anshuka ◽  
Alexander JV Buzacott ◽  
Floris van Ogtrop
Keyword(s):  
Canonical Correlation ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Limiting Factors ◽  
Multivariate Techniques ◽  
Monitoring Networks ◽  
Hydrological Extremes ◽  
Precipitation Regimes ◽  
Testing Stage ◽  
Satellite Rainfall

Abstract Monitoring hydrological extremes is essential for developing risk-mitigation strategies. One of the limiting factors for this is the absence of reliable on the ground monitoring networks that capture data on climate variables, which is highly evident in developing states such as Fiji. Fortunately, increasing global coverage of satellite-derived datasets is facilitating utilisation of this information for monitoring dry and wet periods in data sparse regions. In this study, three global satellite rainfall datasets (CHIRPS, PERSIANN-CDR and CPC) were evaluated for Fiji. All satellite products had reasonable correlations with station data, and CPC had the highest correlation with minimum error values. The Effective Drought Index (EDI), a useful index for understanding hydrological extremes, was then calculated. Thereafter, a canonical correlation analysis (CCA) was employed to forecast the EDI using sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTa) data. A high canonical correlation of 0.98 was achieved between the PCs of mean SST and mean EDI, showing the influence of ocean–atmospheric interactions on precipitation regimes in Fiji. CCA was used to perform a hind cast and a short-term forecast. The training stage produced a coefficient of determinant (R2) value of 0.83 and mean square error (MSE) of 0.11. The results in the testing stage for the forecast were more modest, with an R2 of 0.45 and MSE of 0.26. This easy-to-implement system can be a useful tool used by disaster management bodies to aid in enacting water restrictions, providing aid, and making informed agronomic decisions such as planting dates or extents.

Proactive Actions Based on a Resilient Approach to Urban Seismic Risk Mitigation

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 321-335
Author(s):  
Marco Vona
Keyword(s):  
Urban Planning ◽  
Emergency Management ◽  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Housing Stock ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Housing System ◽  
Management Tools ◽  
Natural Risk ◽  
Seismic Risk Mitigation

Background: Seismic risk mitigation is an important issue in earthquake-prone countries, and needs to be solved in those complex communities governed by complex processes, where urban planning, socioeconomic dynamics, and, often, the need to preserve cultural assets are present simultaneously. In recent years, due to limited financial resources, mitigation activities have often been limited to post-earthquake events, and only a few in periods of inactivity, particularly in urban planning. At this point, a significant change in point of view is necessary. Methods: The seismic risk mitigation (and more generally, natural risk mitigation) must be considered as the main topic in urban planning and in the governance of communities. In fact, in several recent earthquakes, significant socioeconomic losses have been caused by the low or lack of resilience of the communities. This is mainly due to the high vulnerability of private buildings, in particular, housing units. Results: Therefore, in recent years, several studies have been conducted on the seismic resilience of communities. However, significant improvements are still needed for the resilience assessment of the housing stock, both qualitatively and quantitatively. In this study, which is applied to the housing system, a proposal regarding a change in urban planning and emergency management tools based on the concept of resilience is reported. As a first application, a case study in Italy is considered. Conclusion: The proposal is focused on defining and quantifying the improvement of the resilience of the communities and this must be obtained by modifying the current Civil Protection plan. New tools are based on a new resilience community plan by encompassing urban planning tools, resilient mitigation strategies, and consequently, emergency management planning.

scholarly journals 307 A systems approach to understanding biosecurity decision-making

2020 ◽  
Vol 98 (Supplement_4) ◽  
pp. 43-43
Author(s):  
Scott C Merrill ◽  
Christopher Koliba ◽  
Gabriela Bucini ◽  
Eric Clark ◽  
Luke Trinity ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
African Swine Fever Virus ◽  
The United States ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Communication Strategy ◽  
Livestock Industry ◽  
Diarrhea Virus ◽  
Operational Level

Abstract Disease and its consequences result in social and economic impacts to the US animal livestock industry, ranging from losses in human capital to economic costs in excess of a billion dollars annually. Impacts would dramatically escalate if a devastating disease like Foot and Mouth Disease or African Swine Fever virus were to emerge in the United States. Investing in preventative biosecurity can reduce the likelihood of disease incursions and their negative impact on our livestock industry, yet uncertainty persists with regards to developing an effective biosecurity structure and culture. Here we show the implications of human behavior and decision making for biosecurity effectiveness, from the operational level to the owner/managerial level and finally to the systems level. For example, adjustments to risk messaging strategies could double worker compliance with biosecurity practices at the operational level. The improvement of our risk communication strategy may increase willingness to invest in biosecurity. Furthermore, the adaptation of policies could nudge behavior so that we observe a short disease outbreak followed by a quick eradication instead of a pandemic. Our research shows how the emergence of now-endemic diseases, such as Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus, cannot be adequately modeled without the use of a human behavioral component. Focusing solely on any one sector or level of the livestock system is not sufficient to predict emergent disease patterns and their social and economic impact on livestock industries. These results provide insight toward developing more effective risk mitigation strategies and ways to nudge behavior toward more disease resilient systems.

scholarly journals Use of failure modes and effects analysis to mitigate potential risks prior to implementation of an intravenous compounding technology

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Agnes Ann Feemster ◽  
Melissa Augustino ◽  
Rosemary Duncan ◽  
Anand Khandoobhai ◽  
Meghan Rowcliffe
Keyword(s):  
Medication Safety ◽  
Failure Modes ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
New Technology ◽  
Hazard Index ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Investigational Drug ◽  
Workflow Optimization ◽  
Proactive Approach ◽  
Risk Mitigation Strategies

Abstract Disclaimer In an effort to expedite the publication of articles related to the COVID-19 pandemic, AJHP is posting these manuscripts online as soon as possible after acceptance. Accepted manuscripts have been peer-reviewed and copyedited, but are posted online before technical formatting and author proofing. These manuscripts are not the final version of record and will be replaced with the final article (formatted per AJHP style and proofed by the authors) at a later time. Purpose The purpose of this study was to identify potential failure points in a new chemotherapy preparation technology and to implement changes that prevent or minimize the consequences of those failures before they occur using the failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) approach. Methods An FMEA was conducted by a team of medication safety pharmacists, oncology pharmacists and technicians, leadership from informatics, investigational drug, and medication safety services, and representatives from the technology vendor. Failure modes were scored using both Risk Priority Number (RPN) and Risk Hazard Index (RHI) scores. Results The chemotherapy preparation workflow was defined in a 41-step process with 16 failure modes. The RPN and RHI scores were identical for each failure mode because all failure modes were considered detectable. Five failure modes, all attributable to user error, were deemed to pose the highest risk. Mitigation strategies and system changes were identified for 2 failure modes, with subsequent system modifications resulting in reduced risk. Conclusion The FMEA was a useful tool for risk mitigation and workflow optimization prior to implementation of an intravenous compounding technology. The process of conducting this study served as a collaborative and proactive approach to reducing the potential for medication errors upon adoption of new technology into the chemotherapy preparation process.

Avoiding Compressor Surge During Emergency Shutdown Hybrid Turbine Systems

2013 ◽  
Vol 135 (10) ◽  
Author(s):  
Paolo Pezzini ◽  
David Tucker ◽  
Alberto Traverso
Keyword(s):  
Fuel Cell ◽  
System Analysis ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Dynamic Effect ◽  
Transient Behavior ◽  
Open Loop ◽  
Department Of Energy ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Emergency Shutdown ◽  
Compressor Surge

A new emergency shutdown procedure for a direct-fired fuel cell turbine hybrid power system was evaluated using a hardware-based simulation of an integrated gasifier/fuel cell/turbine hybrid cycle (IGFC), implemented through the Hybrid Performance (Hyper) project at the National Energy Technology Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy (NETL). The Hyper facility is designed to explore dynamic operation of hybrid systems and quantitatively characterize such transient behavior. It is possible to model, test, and evaluate the effects of different parameters on the design and operation of a gasifier/fuel cell/gas turbine hybrid system and provide a means of quantifying risk mitigation strategies. An open-loop system analysis regarding the dynamic effect of bleed air, cold air bypass, and load bank is presented in order to evaluate the combination of these three main actuators during emergency shutdown. In the previous Hybrid control system architecture, catastrophic compressor failures were observed when the fuel and load bank were cut off during emergency shutdown strategy. Improvements were achieved using a nonlinear fuel valve ramp down when the load bank was not operating. Experiments in load bank operation show compressor surge and stall after emergency shutdown activation. The difficulties in finding an optimal compressor and cathode mass flow for mitigation of surge and stall using these actuators are illustrated.

A Low-Fidelity Stochastic Model of Viral Spread in Aircraft to Assess Risk Mitigation Strategies

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leigh McCue
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Traffic Network ◽  
Computationally Efficient ◽  
Passenger Compartment ◽  
Stochastic Effects ◽  
Viral Spread ◽  
Risk Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Baseline Health

Abstract The purpose of this work is to develop a computationally efficient model of viral spread that can be utilized to better understand influences of stochastic factors on a large-scale system - such as the air traffic network. A particle-based model of passengers and seats aboard a single-cabin 737-800 is developed for use as a demonstration of concept on tracking the propagation of a virus through the aircraft's passenger compartment over multiple flights. The model is sufficiently computationally efficient so as to be viable for Monte Carlo simulation to capture various stochastic effects, such as number of passengers, number of initially sick passengers, seating locations of passengers, and baseline health of each passenger. The computational tool is then exercised in demonstration for assessing risk mitigation of intervention strategies, such as passenger-driven cleaning of seating environments and elimination of middle seating.

Administrative risks challenging the adoption of smart contracts in construction projects

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Asli Pelin Gurgun ◽  
Kerim Koc
Keyword(s):  
Construction Projects ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Research Question ◽  
Group Discussion ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Risk Category ◽  
Smart Contracts ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Smart Contract ◽  
Criteria Weights

PurposeAs a remedy to usually voluminous, complicated and not easily readable construction contracts, smart contracts can be considered as an effective and alternative solution. However, the construction industry is merely known as a frontrunner for fast adoption of recent technological advancements. Numerous administrative risks challenge construction companies to implement smart contracts. To highlight this issue, this study aims to assess the administrative risks of smart contract adoption in construction projects.Design/methodology/approachA literature survey is conducted to specify administrative risks of smart contracts followed by a pilot study to ensure that the framework is suitable to the research question. The criteria weights are calculated through the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process method, followed by a sensitivity analysis based on degree of fuzziness, which supports the robustness of the developed hierarchy and stability of the results. Then, a focus group discussion (FGD) is performed to discuss the mitigation strategies for the top-level risks in each risk category.FindingsThe final framework consists of 27 sub-criteria, which are categorized under five main criteria, namely, contractual, cultural, managerial, planning and relational. The findings show that (1) regulation change, (2) lack of a driving force, (3) works not accounted in planning, (4) shortcomings of current legal arrangements and (5) lack of dispute resolution mechanism are the top five risks challenging the adoption of smart contracts in construction projects. Risk mitigation strategies based on FGD show that improvements for the semi-automated smart contract drafting are considered more practicable compared to full automation.Originality/valueThe literature is limited in terms of the adoption of smart contracts, while the topic is receiving more attention recently. To support easy prevalence of smart contracts, this study attempts the most challenging aspects of smart contract adoption.

scholarly journals Mitigation Policy Acceptance Model: An Analysis of Individual Decision Making Process toward Residential Seismic Strengthening

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (9) ◽  
pp. 1883 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hao-Teng Cheng ◽  
Ko-Wan Tsou
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Behavioral Intention ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Mitigation Policy ◽  
Seismic Strengthening ◽  
Risky Decision ◽  
The Government ◽  
Acceptance Model

Mitigation policy is regarded as an effective strategy to achieve the purpose of building health resilience and reducing disaster risk with the current high frequency of environmental event occurrences. To enhance public acceptance of mitigation policy, the issue of decision-making behavior has been a concern of researchers and planners. In the past literature, qualitative measures employed to reveal the behavioral intention of hazard risk mitigation cause restricted outcomes due to the problem of sample representativeness and the fact that quantitative research is restricted to discuss the linear relationship between the two selected variables. The purpose of this article is to attempt to construct a Mitigation Policy Acceptance Model (MPAM) to analyze the behavioral intention of seismic risk mitigation strategies. Based on Dual Processing Theory, affective is conducted as the core variable for constructing two types of thinking processes, and the variables of risk perception, trust and responsibility are selected in MPAM from theories and past research. In this study, the mitigation policy of residential seismic strengthening, adapted in Yongkang District of Tainan, has been conducted as the case study. According to the results, the result of model fit test has confirmed the MPAM framework, and two thinking modes could be associated together when people face a risky decision-making process. The variable of affective is the most effective factor to influence each variable, and a direct effect on intention is also shown in this model. The results could provide suggestions in communication risk strategies for the government.

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