scholarly journals Visualizing Omicron: COVID-19 Deaths vs. Cases Over Time

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ramy Arnaout ◽  
Rima Arnaout
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
The World ◽  
Report Data ◽  
Over Time

Abstract For most of the COVID-19 pandemic, the daily focus has been on the number of cases, and secondarily, deaths. The most recent wave is caused by the omicron variant, first identified at the end of 2021 and the dominant variant through the first part of 2022. South Africa, one of the first countries to experience and report data regarding omicron, reported far fewer deaths, even as the number of reported cases rapidly eclipsed previous peaks. However, as more countries report on omicron, there remains uncertainty as to how it compares to prior waves. To more readily visualize the dynamics of cases and deaths, it is natural to plot deaths per million against cases per million. Unlike the time-series plots of cases or deaths that have become daily features of news outlets during the pandemic, which have time as the x-axis, in a plot of deaths vs. cases, time is implicit, and is indicated in relation to the starting point. Here we present and briefly examine such plots from a number of countries and from the world as a whole, illustrating how they summarize features of the pandemic in ways that are harder to extract from time series. These plots suggest that in most places, the omicron wave is very different from those that came before. Code for generating these plots for any country is provided on GitHub (https://github.com/rarnaout/Covidcycles).

scholarly journals Visualizing Omicron: COVID-19 Deaths vs. Cases Over Time

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ramy Arnaout ◽  
Rima Arnaout
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
The World ◽  
Report Data ◽  
Over Time

Abstract For most of the COVID-19 pandemic, the daily focus has been on the number of cases, and secondarily, deaths. The most recent wave is caused by the omicron variant, first identified at the end of 2021 and the dominant variant through the first part of 2022. South Africa, one of the first countries to experience and report data regarding omicron, reported far fewer deaths, even as the number of reported cases rapidly eclipsed previous peaks. However, as more countries report on omicron, there remains uncertainty as to how it compares to prior waves. To more readily visualize the dynamics of cases and deaths, it is natural to plot deaths per million against cases per million. Unlike the time-series plots of cases or deaths that have become daily features of news outlets during the pandemic, which have time as the x-axis, in a plot of deaths vs. cases, time is implicit, and is indicated in relation to the starting point. Here we present and briefly examine such plots from a number of countries and from the world as a whole, illustrating how they summarize features of the pandemic in ways that are harder to extract from time series. These plots suggest that in most places, the omicron wave is very different from those that came before. Code for generating these plots for any country is provided on GitHub (https://github.com/rarnaout/Covidcycles).

scholarly journals Scots law: a system in search of a family?

2020 ◽  
Vol 61 (4) ◽  
pp. 311-327
Author(s):  
Sue Farran
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Legal System ◽  
Historical Background ◽  
Normative Values ◽  
Political Society ◽  
Legal Systems ◽  
Global Community ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
The World ◽  
Typical Mode

The concept of legal families is familiar to most comparativists and although miscegenation is an increasingly common feature in a global community, arguably an understanding of family origins may help to anticipate differences of approach, ideology, attitudes to law and diverging normative values. Classification into families, despite various criticisms and disagreements as to which families there are or how they should be distinguished, provides a useful tool for the comparativists and those seeking, reform, unification or harmonisation.The Scottish legal system, however, is one that tends to elude classification. Even where “mixed” or “hybrid” legal systems are recognised, that of Scotland may be omitted or distinguished from those of, for example, Greece, South Africa, Israel or the Seychelles.This begs the question, what is a legal system and how is it distinguished? This paper examines the Scottish legal system, taking as its starting point a focus on juristic style as the key distinguishing feature of a legal system and looking at the key elements that eminent comparativists Zweigert and Kötz suggest shape this. These are: the historical background and development; its typical mode of thought; its distinctive institutions; the types of legal sources it acknowledges; and its ideology. Looking particularly at the academic debates that have arisen in Scotland concerning the nature and identity of Scots law, the paper goes on toconsider whether the claim to a distinct legal system is anything more than a manifestation of the fact that “each political society in the world has its own law”,1 and that in fact the time has come to abandon the notion of families.

scholarly journals A note on Covid-19 Statistics, Strange trend and Forecasting of Total Cases in the most Infected African Countries: An ARIMA and Fuzzy Time Series Approaches

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 967-982
Author(s):  
Chellai Fatih ◽  
Ahmed Hamimes ◽  
Pradeep Mishra
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Fuzzy Time Series ◽  
Arima Models ◽  
Current Event ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Prevention And Intervention ◽  
Corona Virus ◽  
The World ◽  
Virus Spreading

The current event in the world is corona-virus; the spread of this virus can put all countries in situation of incapacity of how manage and face. This article focused on the class of ARIMA models and Fuzzy Time Series. The techniques are applied to trajectory Corona virus on three African countries: Algeria, Egypt and South Africa over the period (2020-02-15 /2020-03-19). Although the hyper stochastic of this pandemic, it is seen that ARIMA models fits well the trajectory of Covid-19. We predict a continuous trend of virus spreading in next days, a fact that alert the governments of theses countries and the whole African countries for further strengthen prevention and intervention policies to combat this epidemic

scholarly journals Modelling of real-world problems is often the starting point for proof

Pythagoras ◽  
2004 ◽  
Vol 0 (60) ◽  
Author(s):  
Vimolan Mudaly
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Real World ◽  
Dynamic Geometry ◽  
Ample Evidence ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
The World ◽  
Dynamic Geometry Environments ◽  
Modelling Process ◽  
Real World Problems

In this paper I claim that modelling should be seen as the first stage of the proving process. I discuss an experiment conducted with grade 10 (15 year old) learners in a small suburb in South Africa. There is little emphasis placed on modelling in our schools and it is just beginning to make an appearance in our new Outcomes Based Curriculum. The research shows that as a result of the modelling process learners felt the need to know why the result was true. There is ample evidence that a lot of work on a similar topic has been done elsewhere in the world, but not much has been done in South Africa. The research was conducted using Sketchpad as a mediating tool. This in itself was a difficult task because our learners have not really been exposed to dynamic geometry environments.

scholarly journals Is invasion science moving towards agreed standards? The influence of selected frameworks

NeoBiota ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 62 ◽  
pp. 569-590
Author(s):  
John R. U. Wilson ◽  
Arunava Datta ◽  
Heidi Hirsch ◽  
Jan-Hendrik Keet ◽  
Tumeka Mbobo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Significant Proportion ◽  
Eu Legislation ◽  
Classification Framework ◽  
The World ◽  
Clear Cases ◽  
Number Of Citations ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Citation Classics ◽  
Over Time

The need to understand and manage biological invasions has driven the development of frameworks to circumscribe, classify, and elucidate aspects of the phenomenon. But how influential have these frameworks really been? To test this, we evaluated the impact of a pathway classification framework, a framework focussing on the introduction-naturalisation-invasion continuum, and two papers that outline an impact classification framework. We analysed how these framework papers are cited and by whom, conducted a survey to determine why people have cited the frameworks, and explored the degree to which the frameworks are implemented. The four papers outlining these frameworks are amongst the most-cited in their respective journals, are highly regarded in the field, and are already seen as citation classics (although citations are overwhelmingly within the field of invasion science). The number of citations to the frameworks has increased over time, and, while a significant proportion of these are self-citations (20–40%), this rate is decreasing. The frameworks were cited by studies conducted and authored by researchers from across the world. However, relative to a previous citation analysis of invasion science as a whole, the frameworks are particularly used in Europe and South Africa and less so in North America. There is an increasing number of examples of uptake into invasion policy and management (e.g., the pathway classification framework has been adapted and adopted into EU legislation and CBD targets, and the impact classification framework has been adopted by the IUCN). However, we found that few of the citing papers (6–8%) specifically implemented or interrogated the frameworks; roughly half of all citations might be viewed as frivolous (“citation fluff”); there were several clear cases of erroneous citation; and some survey respondents felt that they have not been rigorously tested yet. Although our analyses suggest that invasion science is moving towards a more systematic and standardised approach to recording invasions and their impacts, it appears that the proposed standards are still not applied consistently. For this to be achieved, we argue that frameworks in invasion science need to be revised or adapted to particular contexts in response to the needs and experiences of users (e.g., so they are relevant to pathologists, plant ecologists, and practitioners), the standards should be easier to apply in practice (e.g., through the development of guidelines for management), and there should be incentives for their usage (e.g., recognition for completing an EICAT assessment).

A worldwide analysis of ISO 9000 standard diffusion

2006 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 523-541 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Franceschini ◽  
M. Galetto ◽  
P. Cecconi
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Model ◽  
Far East ◽  
Iso 9000 ◽  
Industrial Sector ◽  
Iso 14001 ◽  
Total Quality ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
The World ◽  
Over Time

PurposeTo provide a cross‐section of International Standardization Organization (ISO) 9000 quality certification diffusion over time and its impact on industrial systems.Design/methodology/approachThe starting point of the analysis is “The ISO survey of ISO 9000 and ISO 14001 certificates” document. Available data concur to trace a synthesis of what has happened and what is in process all over the world. Five main aspects are discussed: the correspondence between ISO 9000 standards and total quality management strategy; the effects of ISO 9000 certification on business performance; the ISO 9000 certificates diffusion in the world; the comparison between economical and entrepreneurial structure of different countries and certificates diffusion; the proposal of a prediction model for the diffusion of ISO 9000 certificates.FindingsThe evolution curve of the number of certificates over time in each country presents a “saturation effect.” This behavior has been analyzed by a diffusion forecasting model. The analysis of regional share certificates evolution evidences a sensible increase of Far East countries. The analysis of ISO 9000 certificates' share by industrial sector highlights a growth for the most sectors; only a few of them show a negative trend in last two years. A relationship between ISO 9000 certificates and socio‐economic indicators of a country (human development index, gross national product) has been individuated.Practical implicationsThe stunning growth of ISO 9000 certifications all over the world confirms a strong polarization of enterprises' interest in this practice. Looking at the empirical data, some questions come out about the future. Will the certification market go on? Will certified enterprises continue to be interested to the certification process?Originality/valueThis paper analyzes the worldwide evolution of ISO 9000 certification and suggests a new prediction model for the diffusion of ISO 9000 certificates.

scholarly journals Quantifying Interagency Differences in Tropical Cyclone Best-Track Wind Speed Estimates

2010 ◽  
Vol 138 (4) ◽  
pp. 1459-1473 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenneth R. Knapp ◽  
Michael C. Kruk
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Temporal Changes ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Spatially Inhomogeneous ◽  
The World ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Numerous agencies around the world perform postseason analysis of tropical cyclone position and intensity, a process described as “best tracking.” However, this process is temporally and spatially inhomogeneous because data availability, operational techniques, and knowledge have changed over time and differ among agencies. The net result is that positions and intensities often vary for any given storm for different agencies. In light of these differences, it is imperative to analyze and document the interagency differences in tropical cyclone intensities. To that end, maximum sustained winds from different agencies were compared using data from the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) global tropical cyclone dataset. Comparisons were made for a recent 5-yr period to investigate the current differences, where linear systematic differences were evident. Time series of the comparisons also showed temporal changes in the systematic differences, which suggest changes in operational procedures. Initial attempts were made to normalize maximum sustained winds by correcting for known changes in operational procedures. The result was mixed, in that the adjustments removed some but not all of the systematic differences. This suggests that more details on operational procedures are needed and that a complete reanalysis of tropical cyclone intensities should be performed.

scholarly journals Learning future terrorist targets through temporal meta-graphs

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gian Maria Campedelli ◽  
Mihovil Bartulovic ◽  
Kathleen M. Carley
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Strategic Behavior ◽  
Feature Space ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Real World Data ◽  
Forecasting Performance ◽  
Humanitarian Crises ◽  
The World ◽  
Temporal Sequences ◽  
Over Time

AbstractIn the last 20 years, terrorism has led to hundreds of thousands of deaths and massive economic, political, and humanitarian crises in several regions of the world. Using real-world data on attacks occurred in Afghanistan and Iraq from 2001 to 2018, we propose the use of temporal meta-graphs and deep learning to forecast future terrorist targets. Focusing on three event dimensions, i.e., employed weapons, deployed tactics and chosen targets, meta-graphs map the connections among temporally close attacks, capturing their operational similarities and dependencies. From these temporal meta-graphs, we derive 2-day-based time series that measure the centrality of each feature within each dimension over time. Formulating the problem in the context of the strategic behavior of terrorist actors, these multivariate temporal sequences are then utilized to learn what target types are at the highest risk of being chosen. The paper makes two contributions. First, it demonstrates that engineering the feature space via temporal meta-graphs produces richer knowledge than shallow time-series that only rely on frequency of feature occurrences. Second, the performed experiments reveal that bi-directional LSTM networks achieve superior forecasting performance compared to other algorithms, calling for future research aiming at fully discovering the potential of artificial intelligence to counter terrorist violence.

scholarly journals PORT WINE, BRAZIL AND THE WORLD ECONOMY: A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS FROM 1756 TO BRAZILIAN INDEPENDENCE

2017 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 275-300
Author(s):  
Paulo Reis Mourão
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Port Wine ◽  
Error Correction Models ◽  
The World ◽  
Analyse Data ◽  
Over Time

AbstractThe Douro Wine Company was one of the most emblematic mercantilist companies promoted by the Marquis of Pombal. It was established in 1756 and has played an unquestionably important role in the Port wine market since then. Port wine exports to Brazil were significantly lower than exports to England over time. Generally, the oscillation of Port wine exports to Brazil has been explained by particular episodes in the Douro Wine Company’s business. Employing structural break analysis and vector of error correction models to analyse data between 1756 and 1826, we concluded that Port wine exports to Brazil were robustly explained by the monetary dimensions of the world economy of the time.

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