Older Age and High Α-fetoprotein Predict Higher Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Chronic Hepatitis B-Related Cirrhotic Patients Receiving Nucleos(T)ide Analogue Therapy: A Retrospective Cohort Study
Abstract Background: Nucleos(t)ide analogues (NUCs) were proved to reduce hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) infection, but data was limited on the efficacy in the CHB patients with cirrhosis. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed data from 447 patients with CHB-related cirrhosis, who initiated tenofovir/entecavir therapy during April 2007 and August 2013. They were divided into HCC (n=48) and non-HCC (n=399) groups. The mean follow-up period was 63.2 ± 34.2 months.Results: Forty-eight patients (10.7%) developed HCC during surveillance. The annual incidence rate of HCC was 2.04 (95% CI: 1.52–2.68) per 100 person-year. The cumulative incidence of HCC was 0.9%, 9.8% and 22.1% at the 1, 5 and 10 years, respectively. Significant predictors for HCC identified using multiple Cox regression analysis were age ≥50 years (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.34, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.08–5.1) and α-fetoprotein (AFP) ≥8 ng/ml (HR: 2.05, 95% CI = 1.1–3.84). The incidence rate of HCC was further analyzed in subgroups according to the risk factors identified by multivariate cox regression. The incidence rate of HCC was 8.67-fold higher in patients with age ≥50 years and AFP ≥8 ng/ml (3.14 per 100 person-year, 95% CI = 1.99–4.72) than those with age <50 years and AFP <8 ng/ml (0.36 per 100 person-year, 95% CI = 0.06–1.19).Conclusion: The cirrhotic CHB patients with age <50 years and AFP <8 ng/ml have the lowest annual incidence of HCC. However, the cirrhotic patients with age ≥50 years or/and AFP ≥8 ng/ml have significantly higher risk for HCC and warrant careful surveillance schedule for HCC development.