scholarly journals Global predictions of short- to medium-term COVID-19 transmission trends : a retrospective assessment

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sangeeta Bhatia ◽  
Kris Parag ◽  
Jack Wardle ◽  
Natsuko Imai ◽  
Sabine van Elsland ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Coverage Probability ◽  
Credible Interval ◽  
Planning Tool ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Forecast Horizon ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Retrospective Assessment ◽  
Relative Errors

Abstract From 8th March to 29th November 2020, we produced weekly estimates of SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility and forecasts of deaths due to COVID-19 for 81 countries with evidence of sustained transmission. We also developed a novel heuristic to combine weekly estimates of transmissibility to produce forecasts over a 4-week horizon. We evaluated the robustness of the forecasts using relative error, coverage probability, and comparisons with null models. During the 39-week period covered by this study, both the short- and medium-term forecasts captured well the epidemic trajectory across different waves of COVID-19 infections with small relative errors over the forecast horizon. The model was well calibrated with 56.3\% and 45.6\% of the observations lying in the 50\% Credible Interval in 1-week and 4-week ahead forecasts respectively. We could accurately characterise the overall phase of the epidemic up to 4-weeks ahead in 84.9\% of country-days. The medium-term forecasts can be used in conjunction with the short-term forecasts of COVID-19 mortality as a useful planning tool as countries continue to relax public health measures.

scholarly journals Global predictions of short- to medium-term COVID-19 transmission trends : a retrospective assessment

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sangeeta Bhatia ◽  
Kris V Parag ◽  
Jack Wardle ◽  
Natsuko Imai ◽  
Sabine L Van Elsland ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Situational Awareness ◽  
Credible Interval ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Forecast Horizon ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Population Immunity ◽  
Retrospective Assessment ◽  
Relative Errors ◽  
Modelling And Forecasting

Background: As of July 2021, more than 180,000,000 cases of COVID-19 have been reported across the world, with more than 4 million deaths. Mathematical modelling and forecasting efforts have been widely used to inform policy-making and to create situational awareness. Methods and Findings: From 8th March to 29th November 2020, we produced weekly estimates of SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility and forecasts of deaths due to COVID-19 for countries with evidence of sustained transmission. The estimates and forecasts were based on an ensemble model comprising of three models that were calibrated using only the reported number of COVID-19 cases and deaths in each country. We also developed a novel heuristic to combine weekly estimates of transmissibility and potential changes in population immunity due to infection to produce forecasts over a 4-week horizon. We evaluated the robustness of the forecasts using relative error, coverage probability, and comparisons with null models. Conclusions: During the 39-week period covered by this study, we produced short- and medium-term forecasts for 81 countries. Both the short- and medium-term forecasts captured well the epidemic trajectory across different waves of COVID-19 infections with small relative errors over the forecast horizon. The model was well calibrated with 56.3% and 45.6% of the observations lying in the 50% Credible Interval in 1-week and 4-week ahead forecasts respectively. We could accurately characterise the overall phase of the epidemic up to 4-weeks ahead in 84.9% of country-days. The medium-term forecasts can be used in conjunction with the short-term forecasts of COVID-19 mortality as a useful planning tool as countries continue to relax stringent public health measures that were implemented to contain the pandemic.

scholarly journals Mathematical Modeling of COVID-19 Pandemic in the African Continent

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nawel Aries ◽  
Houdayfa Ounis
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
African Continent ◽  
Mathematical Epidemiology ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Realistic Assessment ◽  
Official Data

AbstractThe present work aims to give a contribution to the understanding of the highly infectious pandemic caused by the COVID-19 in the African continent. The study focuses on the modelling and the forecasting of COVID-19 spread in the most affected African continent, namely: Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt and South Africa and for the sake of comparison two of the most affected European country are also considered, namely: France and Italy. To this end, an epidemiological SEIQRDP model is presented, which is an adaptation of the classic SIR model widely used in mathematical epidemiology. In order to better coincide with the preventive measures taken by the governments to deal with the spread of COVID-19, this model considers the quarantine. For the identification of the model’s parameters, official data of the pandemic up to August 1st, 2020 are considered. The results show that the number of infections due to the use of quarantine is expected to be very low provided the isolation is effective. However, it is increasing in some countries with the early lifting of containment. Finally, the information provided by the SEIQRDP model could help to establish a realistic assessment of the short-term pandemic situation. Moreover, this will help maintain the most appropriate and necessary public health measures after the lockdown lifting.

scholarly journals Memories of the future

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 90-95
Author(s):  
Gregory A. Gerasimov
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Iodine Deficiency ◽  
Endemic Goiter ◽  
Iodine Intake ◽  
Successful Implementation ◽  
Bakery Products ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Salt Iodization ◽  
Supply Optimization

With bated breath we follow the fate of the long-suffering law On the prevention of diseases caused by iodine deficiency. What can be expected in terms of improving public health after the adoption and successful implementation of this bill, which provides for the enrichment with iodine of edible salt of extra, higher and first varieties, grinding No. 0 and No. 1? In addition, in the production of bakery products, the recipe of which contains edible salt, the use of iodized salt will become mandatory. According to the experience of many near and far countries, within 23 years from the start of the program of mandatory salt iodization, one can expect a significant (at times) reduction in the incidence of endemic goiter. This trend will not exhaust itself in subsequent years. In the medium term (after about 10 years), a decrease (by half or more) in the incidence of thyrotoxicosis can also be expected in Russia. However, in the short term (57 years), a transient increase in the incidence of thyrotoxicosis in people over 60 years of age is possible, which can be considered a kind of payment for the previous iodine deficiency. The trend towards an increase in the incidence of subclinical and, possibly, manifest hypothyroidism may continue, but this will not be a consequence of an increase in iodine supply. Optimization of iodine intake against the background of mandatory salt iodization should reduce the frequency of transient disorders of thyroid function in newborns and, possibly, congenital hypothyroidism.

scholarly journals The effect of early-stage public health policies on the transmission of COVID-19 in South American countries

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bryan Valcarcel ◽  
Jose L Avilez ◽  
J. Smith Torres-Roman ◽  
Julio A Poterico ◽  
Janina Bazalar-Palacios ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Initial Period ◽  
Credible Interval ◽  
South American ◽  
The Public ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
And Control ◽  
Country Specific

Objectives: The analysis of transmission dynamics is crucial to determine whether mitigation or suppression measures reduce the spread of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This study sought to estimate the basic (R0) and time-varying (Rt) reproduction number of COVID-19 and contrast the public health measures for ten South American countries. Methods: Data was obtained from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. Country-specific R0 estimates during the first two weeks of the outbreak and Rt estimates after 90 days were estimated. Results: Countries used a combination of isolation, physical distancing, quarantine, and community-wide containment measures to staunch the spread of COVID-19 at different points in time. R0 ranged from 1.52 (95% confidence interval: 1.13-1.99) in Venezuela to 3.83 (3.04-4.75) in Chile, whereas Rt after 90 days ranged from 0.71 (95% credible interval: 0.39-1.05) in Uruguay to 1.20 (1.19-1.20) in Brazil. Different R0 and Rt values may be related to the testing capacity of each country. Conclusion: R0 in the early phase of the outbreak varied across the South American countries. The public health measures adopted in the initial period of the pandemic appear to have reduced Rt over time in each country, albeit to different levels.

scholarly journals Model-based evaluation of the impact of noncompliance with public health measures on COVID-19 disease control

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Madison Stoddard ◽  
Debra Van Egeren ◽  
Kaitlyn Johnson ◽  
Smriti Rao ◽  
Josh Furgeson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Disease Control ◽  
Influenza Pandemic ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Complete Suppression ◽  
Natural Immunity ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe word ‘pandemic’ conjures dystopian images of bodies stacked in the streets and societies on the brink of collapse. Despite this frightening picture, denialism and noncompliance with public health measures are common in the historical record, for example during the 1918 Influenza pandemic or the 2015 Ebola epidemic. The unique characteristics of SARS-CoV-2—its high reproductive number (R0), time-limited natural immunity and considerable potential for asymptomatic spread—exacerbate the public health repercussions of noncompliance with biomedical and nonpharmaceutical interventions designed to limit disease transmission. In this work, we used game theory to explore when noncompliance confers a perceived benefit to individuals, demonstrating that noncompliance is a Nash equilibrium under a broad set of conditions. We then used epidemiological modeling to explore the impact of noncompliance on short-term disease control, demonstrating that the presence of a noncompliant subpopulation prevents suppression of disease spread. Our modeling shows that the existence of a noncompliant population can also prevent any return to normalcy over the long run. For interventions that are highly effective at preventing disease spread, however, the consequences of noncompliance are borne disproportionately by noncompliant individuals. In sum, our work demonstrates the limits of free-market approaches to compliance with disease control measures during a pandemic. The act of noncompliance with disease intervention measures creates a negative externality, rendering COVID-19 disease control ineffective in the short term and making complete suppression impossible in the long term. Our work underscores the importance of developing effective strategies for prophylaxis through public health measures aimed at complete suppression and the need to focus on compliance at a population level.

scholarly journals Extended SIR prediction of the epidemics trend of COVID-19 in Italy and compared with Hunan, China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jia Wangping ◽  
Han Ke ◽  
Song Yang ◽  
Cao Wenzhe ◽  
Wang Shengshu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Credible Interval ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Global Public Health ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Intervention Measures ◽  
Public Health Strategies

AbstractBackgroundCoronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is currently a global public health threat. Outside of China, Italy is one of the most suffering countries with the COVID-19 epidemic. It is important to predict the epidemics trend of COVID-19 epidemic in Italy to help develop public health strategies.MethodsWe used time-series data of COVID-19 from Jan 22,2020 to Mar 16,2020. An infectious disease dynamic extended susceptible-infected-removed (eSIR) model, which covers the effects of different intervention measures in dissimilar periods, was applied to estimate the epidemic trend in Italy. The basic reproductive number was estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods and presented using the resulting posterior mean and 95% credible interval (CI). Hunan, with similar total number of populations in Italy, was used as a comparative item.ResultsIn the eSIR model, we estimated that the basic reproductive number for COVID-19 was respectively 4.10 (95% CI: 2.15–6.77) in Italy and 3.15(95% CI: 1.71–5.21) in Hunan. There would be totally 30 086 infected cases (95%CI:7920-81 869) under the current country blockade and the endpoint would be Apr 25 (95%CI: Mar 30 to Aug 07) in Italy. If the country blockade is imposed 5 day later, the total number of infected cases would expand the infection scale 1.50 times.ConclusionItaly’s current strict measures can efficaciously prevent the further spread of COVID-19 and should be maintained. Necessary strict public health measures be implemented as soon as possible in other European countries with a high number of COVID-19 cases. The most effective strategy needs to be confirmed in further studies.

scholarly journals The effect of early-stage public health policies in the transmission of COVID-19 for South American countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 44 ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Bryan Valcarcel ◽  
Jose L. Avilez ◽  
J. Smith Torres-Roman ◽  
Julio A. Poterico ◽  
Janina Bazalar-Palacios ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Initial Period ◽  
Credible Interval ◽  
South American ◽  
The Public ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
And Control ◽  
Country Specific

Objectives. The analysis of transmission dynamics is crucial to determine whether mitigation or suppression measures reduce the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This study sought to estimate the basic (R0) and time-varying (Rt) reproduction number of COVID-19 and contrast the public health measures for ten South American countries. Methods. Data was obtained from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. Country-specific R0 values during the first two weeks of the outbreak and Rt values after 90 days were estimated. Results. Countries used a combination of isolation, physical distancing, quarantine, and community-wide containment measures to staunch the spread of COVID-19 at different points in time. R0 ranged from 1.52 (95% confidence interval: 1.13-1.99) in Venezuela to 3.83 (3.04-4.75) in Chile, whereas Rt after 90 days ranged from 0.71 (95% credible interval: 0.39-1.05) in Uruguay to 1.20 (1.19-1.20) in Brazil. Different R0 and Rt values may be related to the testing capacity of each country. Conclusion. R0 in the early phase of the outbreak varied across the South American countries. The public health measures adopted in the initial period of the pandemic appear to have reduced Rt over time in each country, albeit to different levels.

Is money the creation of the state or the market? (On the “modern monetary theory” as described in the textbook by W. Mitchell, L. R. Wray and M. Watts “Macroeconomics”)

2020 ◽  
pp. 121-134
Author(s):  
S. A. Andryushin
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
Scientific Community ◽  
Full Employment ◽  
Term Effect ◽  
Scientific Concept ◽  
Monetary Theory ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Stimulation Of

In 2019, a textbook “Macroeconomics” was published in London, on the pages of which the authors presented a new monetary doctrine — Modern Monetary Theory, MMT, — an unorthodox concept based on the postulates of Post-Keynesianism, New Institutionalism, and the theory of Marxism. The attitude to this scientific concept in the scientific community is ambiguous. A smaller part of scientists actively support this doctrine, which is directly related to state monetary and fiscal stimulation of full employment, public debt servicing and economic growth. Others, the majority of economists, on the contrary, strongly criticize MMT, arguing that the new theory hides simple left-wing populism, designed for a temporary and short-term effect. This article considers the origins and the main provisions of MMT, its discussions with the mainstream, criticism of the basic tenets of MMT, and also assesses possible prospects for the development of MMT in the medium term.

Pandemic Disease, Public Health, and Ethics

2019 ◽  
pp. 796-811 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maxwell Smith ◽  
Ross Upshur
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Ethical Issues ◽  
Ethical Challenges ◽  
Pandemic Preparedness ◽  
Scarce Resources ◽  
Ethical Frameworks ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Care Workers ◽  
The Face ◽  
Conducting Research

Infectious disease pandemics raise significant and novel ethical challenges to the organization and practice of public health. This chapter provides an overview of the salient ethical issues involved in preparing for and responding to pandemic disease, including those arising from deploying restrictive public health measures to contain and curb the spread of disease (e.g., isolation and quarantine), setting priorities for the allocation of scarce resources, health care workers’ duty to care in the face of heightened risk of infection, conducting research during pandemics, and the global governance of preventing and responding to pandemic disease. It also outlines ethical guidance from prominent ethical frameworks that have been developed to address these ethical issues and concludes by discussing some pressing challenges that must be addressed if ethical reflection is to make a meaningful difference in pandemic preparedness and response.

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