scholarly journals Human seasonal influenza under COVID-19 and the potential consequences of influenza lineage elimination

Author(s):  
Vijaykrishna Dhanasekaran ◽  
Sheena Sullivan ◽  
Kimberly Edwards ◽  
Ruopeng Xie ◽  
Arseniy Khvorov ◽  
...  

Abstract Annual epidemics of seasonal influenza cause hundreds of thousands of deaths, high levels of morbidity, and substantial economic loss. Yet, global influenza circulation has been heavily suppressed by public health measures and travel restrictions since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Notably, the influenza B/Yamagata lineage has not been conclusively detected since April 2020, and A(H3N2), A(H1N1), and B/Victoria viruses circulate with considerably less genetic diversity. Travel restrictions have largely confined regional outbreaks of A(H3N2) to South and Southeast Asia, B/Victoria epidemics in China, and A(H1N1) in West Africa. Seasonal influenza transmission lineages continue to perish globally, except in select hotspots, which will likely seed future epidemics. Waning population immunity and sporadic case detection will further challenge influenza vaccine strain selection and epidemic control. We offer perspective on the potential short- and long-term evolutionary dynamics of seasonal influenza and discuss potential consequences and mitigation strategies as global travel gradually returns to pre-pandemic levels.

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Niamh Humphries ◽  
Jennifer Creese ◽  
John-Paul Byrne ◽  
John Connell

Abstract Background Since the 2008 recession, Ireland has experienced large-scale doctor emigration. This paper seeks to ascertain whether (and how) the COVID-19 pandemic might disrupt or reinforce existing patterns of doctor emigration. Method This paper draws on qualitative interviews with 31 hospital doctors in Ireland, undertaken in June–July 2020. As the researchers were subject to a government mandated work-from-home order at that time, they utilised Twitter™ to contact potential respondents (snowball sampling); and conducted interviews via Zoom™ or telephone. Findings Two cohorts of doctors were identified; COVID Returners (N = 12) and COVID Would-be Emigrants (N = 19). COVID Returners are Irish-trained emigrant doctors who returned to Ireland in March 2020, just as global travel ground to a halt. They returned to be closer to home and in response to a pandemic-related recruitment call issued by the Irish government. COVID Would-be Emigrants are hospital doctors considering emigration. Some had experienced pandemic-related disruptions to their emigration plans as a result of travel restrictions and border closures. However, most of the drivers of emigration mentioned by respondents related to underlying problems in the Irish health system rather than to the pandemic, i.e. a culture of medical emigration, poor working conditions and the limited availability of posts in the Irish health system. Discussion/conclusion This paper illustrates how the pandemic intensified and reinforced, rather than radically altered, the dynamics of doctor emigration from Ireland. Ireland must begin to prioritise doctor retention and return by developing a coherent policy response to the underlying drivers of doctor emigration.


Viruses ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 977
Author(s):  
Kobporn Boonnak ◽  
Chayasin Mansanguan ◽  
Dennis Schuerch ◽  
Usa Boonyuen ◽  
Hatairat Lerdsamran ◽  
...  

Influenza viruses continue to be a major public health threat due to the possible emergence of more virulent influenza virus strains resulting from dynamic changes in virus adaptability, consequent of functional mutations and antigenic drift in surface proteins, especially hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA). In this study, we describe the genetic and evolutionary characteristics of H1N1, H3N2, and influenza B strains detected in severe cases of seasonal influenza in Thailand from 2018 to 2019. We genetically characterized seven A/H1N1 isolates, seven A/H3N2 isolates, and six influenza B isolates. Five of the seven A/H1N1 viruses were found to belong to clade 6B.1 and were antigenically similar to A/Switzerland/3330/2017 (H1N1), whereas two isolates belonged to clade 6B.1A1 and clustered with A/Brisbane/02/2018 (H1N1). Interestingly, we observed additional mutations at antigenic sites (S91R, S181T, T202I) as well as a unique mutation at a receptor binding site (S200P). Three-dimensional (3D) protein structure analysis of hemagglutinin protein reveals that this unique mutation may lead to the altered binding of the HA protein to a sialic acid receptor. A/H3N2 isolates were found to belong to clade 3C.2a2 and 3C.2a1b, clustering with A/Switzerland/8060/2017 (H3N2) and A/South Australia/34/2019 (H3N2), respectively. Amino acid sequence analysis revealed 10 mutations at antigenic sites including T144A/I, T151K, Q213R, S214P, T176K, D69N, Q277R, N137K, N187K, and E78K/G. All influenza B isolates in this study belong to the Victoria lineage. Five out of six isolates belong to clade 1A3-DEL, which relate closely to B/Washington/02/2009, with one isolate lacking the three amino acid deletion on the HA segment at position K162, N163, and D164. In comparison to the B/Colorado/06/2017, which is the representative of influenza B Victoria lineage vaccine strain, these substitutions include G129D, G133R, K136E, and V180R for HA protein. Importantly, the susceptibility to oseltamivir of influenza B isolates, but not A/H1N1 and A/H3N2 isolates, were reduced as assessed by the phenotypic assay. This study demonstrates the importance of monitoring genetic variation in influenza viruses regarding how acquired mutations could be associated with an improved adaptability for efficient transmission.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria McCain ◽  
Allison Dowd ◽  
Dan Salzer ◽  
Erin Toothaker ◽  
Shengyin Xu

Air travel is an increasing source of global GHG emissions, yet still many organizations have struggled to reduce business travel activity. Originating out of the COVID-19 pandemic and global travel restrictions, this working paper is part of a series addressing business travel reduction opportunities. This paper discusses how various organizations can and have conducted GHG emissions measurement on air travel, set science-based reduction targets, and improved accuracy and efficiency of data over time.


2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (10) ◽  
pp. 2679-2694 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Gil ◽  
A. Garrido ◽  
N. Hernández-Mora

Abstract. The economic evaluation of drought impacts is essential in order to define efficient and sustainable management and mitigation strategies. The aim of this study is to evaluate the economic impacts of a drought event on the agricultural sector and measure how they are transmitted from primary production to industrial output and related employment. We fit econometric models to determine the magnitude of the economic loss attributable to water storage. The direct impacts of drought on agricultural productivity are measured through a direct attribution model. Indirect impacts on agricultural employment and the agri-food industry are evaluated through a nested indirect attribution model. The transmission of water scarcity effects from agricultural production to macroeconomic variables is measured through chained elasticities. The models allow for differentiating the impacts deriving from water scarcity from other sources of economic losses. Results show that the importance of drought impacts are less relevant at the macroeconomic level, but are more significant for those activities directly dependent on water abstractions and precipitation. From a management perspective, implications of these findings are important to develop effective mitigation strategies to reduce drought risk exposure.


Author(s):  
M. Rizwan Sohail

Influenza causes annual, seasonal epidemics that lead to tens of thousands of deaths each year in the United States. Two influenza A strains (H3N2 and H1N1) and 1 or 2 influenza B strains typically circulate during winter months and undergo minor antigenic mutations (antigenic drift) resulting in annual seasonal epidemics. Influenza pandemics occur more rarely (every 20-30 years) and are the result of major antigenic changes (antigenic shift) leading to large numbers of infections due to low levels of population immunity. In seasonal epidemics, 80% to 90% of deaths due to influenza occur in persons older than 65 years.


Author(s):  
Hyunju Lee ◽  
Heeyoung Lee ◽  
Kyoung-Ho Song ◽  
Eu Suk Kim ◽  
Jeong Su Park ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was introduced in Korea early with a large outbreak in mid-February. We reviewed the public health interventions used during the COVID-19 outbreak and describe the impact on seasonal influenza activity in Korea. Methods National response strategies, public health interventions and daily COVID-19–confirmed cases in Korea were reviewed during the pandemic. National influenza surveillance data were compared between 7 sequential seasons. Characteristics of each season, including rate of influenza-like illness (ILI), duration of epidemic, date of termination of epidemic, distribution of influenza virus strain, and hospitalization, were analyzed. Results After various public health interventions including enforced public education on hand hygiene, cough etiquette, staying at home with respiratory symptoms, universal mask use in public places, refrain from nonessential social activities, and school closures the duration of the influenza epidemic in 2019/2020 decreased by 6–12 weeks and the influenza activity peak rated 49.8 ILIs/1000 visits compared to 71.9–86.2 ILIs/1000 visits in previous seasons. During the period of enforced social distancing from weeks 9–17 of 2020, influenza hospitalization cases were 11.9–26.9-fold lower compared with previous seasons. During the 2019/2020 season, influenza B accounted for only 4%, in contrast to previous seasons in which influenza B accounted for 26.6–54.9% of all cases. Conclusions Efforts to activate a high-level national response not only led to a decrease in COVID-19 but also a substantial decrease in seasonal influenza activity. Interventions applied to control COVID-19 may serve as useful strategies for prevention and control of influenza in upcoming seasons.


DNA Research ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 24 (5) ◽  
pp. 459-472 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amna Asif-Laidin ◽  
Valérie Delmarre ◽  
Jeanne Laurentie ◽  
Wolfgang J. Miller ◽  
Stéphane Ronsseray ◽  
...  

2013 ◽  
Vol 7 (10) ◽  
pp. 734-740 ◽  
Author(s):  
Slinporn Prachayangprecha ◽  
Jarika Makkoch ◽  
Kamol Suwannakarn ◽  
Preeyaporn Vichaiwattana ◽  
Sumeth Korkong ◽  
...  

Introduction: This study investigated influenza activity in Bangkok, Thailand between June 2009 and July 2012. Methodology: Real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) was performed to detect influenza viruses among patients with influenza-like illnesses. Results: Of the 6417 patients tested, influenza virus infection was detected in 42% (n = 2697) of the specimens. Influenza A pH1N1 viruses comprised the predominant strain between 2009 and 2010, and seasonal influenza (H3) had a high prevalence in 2011. Laboratory data showed a prevalence and seasonal pattern of influenza viruses. In 2009, influenza activity peaked in July, the rainy season. In 2010, influenza activity happened in two phases, with the initial one at the beginning of the year and another peak between June and August 2010, which again corresponded to the rainy period. Influenza activity was low for several consecutive weeks at the beginning of 2011, and high H3N2 activity was recorded during the rainy season between July and September 2011. However, from the beginning of 2012 through July 2012, pH1N1, influenza H3N2, and influenza B viruses continuously circulated at a very low level. Conclusion: The seasonal pattern of influenza activity in Thailand tended to peak during rainy season between July and September.


2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Melinda Choua ◽  
Juan A. Bonachela

AbstractViruses can infect any organism. Because viruses use the host machinery to replicate, their performance depends on the host physiological state. For bacteriophages, this host-viral performance link has been characterized empirically and with intracellular theories. Such theories are too detailed to be included in models that study host-phage interactions in the long term, which hinders our understanding of systems that range from pathogens infecting gut bacteria to marine phage shaping present and future oceans. Here, we combined data and models to study the short- and long-term consequences that host physiology has on bacteriophage performance. We compiled data showing the dependence of lytic-phage traits on host growth rate (viral phenotypic “plasticity”) to deduce simple expressions representing such plasticity. We included these expressions in a standard host-phage model, to understand how viral plasticity can break the expected evolutionary trade-off between infection time and viral offspring number. Furthermore, viral plasticity influences dramatically dynamic scenarios (e.g. sudden nutrient pulses or host starvation). We show that the effect of plasticity on offspring number, not generation time, drives the phage ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Standard models do not account for this plasticity, which handicaps their predictability in realistic environments. Our results highlight the importance of viral plasticity to unravel host-phage interactions, and the need of laboratory and field experiments to characterize viral plastic responses across systems.


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